Maybe plug him in the 3LW spot right where MDC is. All respect to Czarnik but I don't want to see him in the op 6. Next to JGP and Wahlstrom or someone else seems like a good 3rd line.
I haven't seen enough of his play to make any solid predictions on him, but at least from looking into his stats, when he plays with scoring line players, he has put up very good numbers at 5 on 5. Here's his scoring rates over the last two seasons in Calgary at 5 on 5 based on who he is on a line with (for every forward he played at least 30 min of 5 on 5 with):
With | TOI With | Goals/60 | Total Assists/60 | Total Points/60 |
Alan Quine | 34:31:00 | 0 | 1.74 | 1.74 |
Andrew Mangiapane | 38:52:00 | 0 | 1.54 | 1.54 |
Derek Ryan | 123:39:00 | 0.49 | 1.46 | 1.94 |
Garnet Hathaway | 61:10:00 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
James Neal | 105:34:00 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
Johnny Gaudreau | 36:10:00 | 0 | 3.32 | 3.32 |
Mark Jankowski | 287:25:00 | 0.63 | 1.04 | 1.67 |
Matthew Tkachuk | 120:10:00 | 1 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
Michael Frolik | 44:22:00 | 1.35 | 0 | 1.35 |
Mikael Backlund | 118:19:00 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 2.03 |
Milan Lucic | 37:10:00 | 3.23 | 0 | 3.23 |
Sam Bennett | 136:15:00 | 0.88 | 0.44 | 1.32 |
Sean Monahan | 34:46:00 | 0 | 1.72 | 1.72 |
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A lot of the issue with his low scoring rates appear to be attributed to his time playing bottom six with players line Hathaway, Jankowski, Bennet and Neal, which is kind of hard to blame him for not putting up good offensive numbers with. When he was with Tkachuk though, his 5 on 5 offense has been quite good though, and even still very solid with Backlund. Small sample size, to be sure, but shows some promise for him as an offensive player at the NHL level and the possibility that he's just never been given a legitimate chance.
For comparison purposes, here's the scoring rates these same players put up at 5 on 5 over the last two seasons:
Player | TOI | Goals/60 | Total Assists/60 | Total Points/60 |
Alan Quine | 207:00:00 | 0.87 | 0.58 | 1.45 |
Andrew Mangiapane | 1295:58:00 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 1.94 |
Austin Czarnik | 596:09:00 | 0.6 | 1.01 | 1.61 |
Derek Ryan | 1582:40:00 | 0.68 | 1.1 | 1.78 |
Garnet Hathaway | 649:16:00 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 1.57 |
James Neal | 784:33:00 | 0.38 | 0.61 | 0.99 |
Johnny Gaudreau | 2286:19:00 | 0.89 | 1.47 | 2.36 |
Mark Jankowski | 1293:34:00 | 0.6 | 0.74 | 1.35 |
Matthew Tkachuk | 2057:25:00 | 0.85 | 1.28 | 2.13 |
Michael Frolik | 1213:04:00 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 1.73 |
Mikael Backlund | 2070:40:00 | 0.7 | 1.22 | 1.91 |
Milan Lucic | 775:54:00 | 0.23 | 0.7 | 0.93 |
Sam Bennett | 1396:34:00 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 1.37 |
Sean Monahan | 2117:28:00 | 0.88 | 1.22 | 2.1 |
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So, if he does win a top 6 spot at some point, I wouldn't necessarily scoff at the notion. His career up until now has been weirdly similar to Martin St. Louis' right before going to Tampa -- similar size, both were standout college scorers, and their stats over the last two seasons with Calgary are very comparable at both the NHL and AHL level. The big difference is the two years he spent in the Bruins' system, which also means he's two years older the St. Louis was, and the age difference is of course of note.
I'm definitely not trying to compare them on the ice as players and I also don't think Czarnik has nearly that upside (for one, Czarnik is not nearly as explosive of a skater as St. Louis from what I've seen), but just bringing Marty up as another guy who didn't get a real shot to show what he could do in an NHL top 6 largely due to his small stature and was able to prove he belonged there when he finally did. Which is not to say that I think Czarnik will do that, but simply that I wouldn't rule it out either.