Is Toronto Falling Into The Same Trap As Last Year?

[HarrisonFord]

Nope, they are a better team than last year.

2013-2014:
SF/G: 27.9
SA/G: 35.9
Differential: -8 shots per game

2014-2015:
SF/G: 30.0
SA/G: 33.6
Differntial: -3.6 shots per game

That's a pretty big improvement over last year.

Vancouver dominated the entire road trip against the Eastern teams.

Just look at their record.

Especially those Canadian Eastern Conference teams

 

[Divine]

Everyone keeps on talking about the collapse last year...

What they fail to acknowledge is that their starting goaltender got injured, and Reimer had below .900 save percentage for what, 10 games in a row? He was definitely below league average for the duration of the Bernier injury. Had their starting goaltender not been injured, they would probably still have been in the playoffs.

Let's not acknowledge that though, instead let's claim they flamed out and they were 'due'.

 

[stish]

Vancouver dominated the entire road trip against the Eastern teams.

Just look at their record.

Canucks never get beat, they just lose the game. It's all because of them. Just ask the fans.

 

[stish]

I can't believe Leafs fans don't understand that an entire game is 60 minutes.

We do. We loved that 4-0 stretch that doesn't count from your perspective. Apparently it was goaltending though, which also doesn't count as part of the game.

 

[KGL]

Yeah, they are. I can't find the chart now but it showed that the Leafs were in this exact position the last couple years. Right around the same amount of points and they have the same CF% as they did those couple years.

They're going to crash and burn again. Hell, they were in first place in the East at one point last season and they still crashed and burned into the bottom 10. It'll happen again.

Everyone keeps on talking about the collapse last year...

What they fail to acknowledge is that their starting goaltender got injured, and Reimer had below .900 save percentage for what, 10 games in a row? He was definitely below league average for the duration of the Bernier injury. Had their starting goaltender not been injured, they would probably still have been in the playoffs.

Let's not acknowledge that though, instead let's claim they flamed out and they were 'due'.

They were due. They weren't a good team and goaltending just covered that up for a long time. Once we didn't have a goaltender playing out of his mind every night (Which isn't sustainable) we fell. It was inevitable. They weren't a playoff team.

 

[eklunds source]

That Canucks game probably shouldn't be mentioned considering the game was done and dusted halfway through the second. Carlyle's tactics to sit back and wait out the win have led to some comfortable games looking less so. Recent wins against Dallas and Washington also fall under the exact same scenario.

This happens to every NHL team (yes, all 30). It's called score effects. Teams that are winning make safer plays (think a chip off the glass and out rather than reorganizing and looking for a breakout); teams that are losing make riskier plays (like pressuring harder on the forecheck, or sending a defenseman in on the rush more frequently).

The idea behind Score Effects: When a team has a lead of two or more goals in the first or second period or even just one goal in the third period, it tends to protect that lead. Often, the leading team will go into a defensive shell and be much less aggressive offensively. The leading team takes fewer risks in order to avoid giving up a goal. The team trailing in these situations tends to be much more aggressive offensively, taking more risks to score and get back in the game.

The Canadiens put on a clinic in what we expect to see from Score Effects in their game against the Oilers. The game was tied at 5 on 5 (5v5) for 11.3 minutes of play. During that period where the score was tied, Edmonton posted 55.56% CF% (Corsi For Percentage) compared to Montreal’s 44.44%. Simply put, the Oilers attempted more shots than Montreal when the game was tied. Once Edmonton started scoring, Montreal threw their offense into overdrive to get back into the game. The Canadiens nearly doubled their shot attempt rate during the 29.9 minutes of play (5v5) that the team was trailing...

 

[Divine]

They were due. They weren't a good team and goaltending just covered that up for a long time. Once we didn't have a goaltender playing out of his mind every night (Which isn't sustainable) we fell. It was inevitable. They weren't a playoff team.

Where were the Leafs in the standings before the Bernier injury? I know there's a website where you can check it, just don't know where. If I recall correctly, they were top 3 in the Atlantic? Whether or not it was unsustainable doesn't mean that it would have happened regardless of the injury.

 

[Warden of the North]

Where were the Leafs in the standings before the Bernier injury? I know there's a website where you can check it, just don't know where. If I recall correctly, they were top 3 in the Atlantic? Whether or not it was unsustainable doesn't mean that it would have happened regardless of the injury.

Yes, they were competing for the division lead.

 

[syc]

Canucks never get beat, they just lose the game. It's all because of them. Just ask the fans.

So true. lol

 

[WordsOfWisdumb*]

This is the third game in a row where Toronto were outshot, but managed to pick up the win with good goaltending and offence. Are they going back to the bad habits of the previous season?

Even more amazing is that the Leafs have iced the exact same type of team for over 20 years now. (I wrote about this in the Leafs area of the forum.)

Definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

The Leafs will never win a Stanley Cup until they do something about their blue line. Being 23rd in goals allowed does not make for a Cup team.

 

[KGL]

Where were the Leafs in the standings before the Bernier injury? I know there's a website where you can check it, just don't know where. If I recall correctly, they were top 3 in the Atlantic? Whether or not it was unsustainable doesn't mean that it would have happened regardless of the injury.

You can check it on NHL.com. Bernier got injured on April 3rd. At that point the Leafs were one point out of a playoff spot.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think that once again all signs point towards a collapse. Might not be as epic as last year, and because of how the rest of the conference is looking they might even stay in the playoffs, but yeah I see them falling on hard times eventually. Playing good, winning hockey they are not. Last night showed the difference between one of the best advanced stats teams in the league and one of the worst. In the long run one of these teams will be fine and the other won't be.

 

[Divine]

You can check it on NHL.com. Bernier got injured on April 3rd. At that point the Leafs were one point out of a playoff spot.

That's not true, Bernier got injured against the Kings on March 13 as per source. You are thinking about when he rushed back and got injured again. Remember that STL game where he came back and said he wasn't 100%? That was cause Reimer **** the bed.

Anyway, so the actual standings before Bernier got injured on March 13 were - The Leafs were second in the Atlantic, and third in the East with 80 points.

From March 13 to April 12th, the Leafs last game of the regular season - they had 4 points. 4 points in a month (in 14 GP) after their starting goaltender went down... So no, you cannot prove it happened because they were due when coincidentally the collapse happened at the same time they lost their starting goaltender, and their backup goaltender had sub-par goaltending the rest of the way.

 

[Pavels Dog]

That's not true, Bernier got injured against the Kings on March 13 as per source. You are thinking about when he rushed back and got injured again. Remember that STL game where he came back and said he wasn't 100%? That was cause Reimer **** the bed.

Anyway, so the actual standings before Bernier got injured on March 13 were - The Leafs were second in the Atlantic, and third in the East with 80 points.

From March 13 to April 12th, the Leafs last game of the regular season - they had 4 points. 4 points in a month after their starting goaltender went down... So no, you cannot prove it happened because they were due when coincidentally the collapse happened at the same time they lost their starting goaltender, and their backup goaltender had sub-par goaltending the rest of the way.

They were carried by great goaltending, when the goaltending stopped being great they were pretty much completely unable to collect points. That was predicted and expected. They needed Bernier and Reimer to play like Vezina candidates all year, it was unsustainable and everyone knew it.

 

[Daisy Jane]

You can check it on NHL.com. Bernier got injured on April 3rd. At that point the Leafs were one point out of a playoff spot.

for the 2nd time and after they lost 8 in a row in regulation.
Bernier's original injury was March... 13th 2014, where they were tied with Montreal for 2nd/3rd of the Atlantic conference.

 

[Fear]

I think that once again all signs point towards a collapse. Might not be as epic as last year, and because of how the rest of the conference is looking they might even stay in the playoffs, but yeah I see them falling on hard times eventually. Playing good, winning hockey they are not. Last night showed the difference between one of the best advanced stats teams in the league and one of the worst. In the long run one of these teams will be fine and the other won't be.

Do not judge the Leafs if last nights game was the only one you watched. It was not similar to the way they have played most games this season at all.

 

[bobbyt911]

I think that once again all signs point towards a collapse. Might not be as epic as last year, and because of how the rest of the conference is looking they might even stay in the playoffs, but yeah I see them falling on hard times eventually. Playing good, winning hockey they are not. Last night showed the difference between one of the best advanced stats teams in the league and one of the worst. In the long run one of these teams will be fine and the other won't be.

They had 2 lazy games out of their last 3. They normally play way way better than the effort last night.
They are not at all the same team as last yr, not to say they won't lose some game but a full on collapse is not likely. IMO they will finish top 3 in the Atlantic

 

[Divine]

They were carried by great goaltending, when the goaltending stopped being great they were pretty much completely unable to collect points. That was predicted and expected. They needed Bernier and Reimer to play like Vezina candidates all year, it was unsustainable and everyone knew it.

Yes, but what you're failing to acknowledge is their starting goaltender got injured. Every team in the league would decline if their starting goaltender was injured. That doesn't prove anything - if anything it is an anomaly to have 4 points in 14GP to finish off the season. That's .29 points per game, significantly worst than every team in the NHL. Unfortunately, odds don't work the way people on HfBoards think they do - if you flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row, that doesn't mean you'll get tails 10 times in a row following that. The odds of heads are still 50/50 the 11th time, and the 12th time. There's no spin off the other way.

So when the Leafs had already accumulated all of their points up until that point, that doesn't mean they were due to never get a point again for the rest of the season. Something had to happen to cause that, in this case - it was an injury to their season MVP, the starting goaltender.

 

[KGL]

That's not true, Bernier got injured against the Kings on March 13 as per source. You are thinking about when he rushed back and got injured again. Remember that STL game where he came back and said he wasn't 100%? That was cause Reimer **** the bed.

Anyway, so the actual standings before Bernier got injured on March 13 were - The Leafs were second in the Atlantic, and third in the East with 80 points.

From March 13 to April 12th, the Leafs last game of the regular season - they had 4 points. 4 points in a month (in 14 GP) after their starting goaltender went down... So no, you cannot prove it happened because they were due when coincidentally the collapse happened at the same time they lost their starting goaltender, and their backup goaltender had sub-par goaltending the rest of the way.

That actually proves just that. Once they didn't have unstoppable goaltending they fell. It was the only thing getting them wins.

 

[Divine]

That's not true, Bernier got injured against the Kings on March 13 as per source. You are thinking about when he rushed back and got injured again. Remember that STL game where he came back and said he wasn't 100%? That was cause Reimer **** the bed.

Anyway, so the actual standings before Bernier got injured on March 13 were - The Leafs were second in the Atlantic, and third in the East with 80 points.

From March 13 to April 12th, the Leafs last game of the regular season - they had 4 points. 4 points in a month (in 14 GP) after their starting goaltender went down... So no, you cannot prove it happened because they were due when coincidentally the collapse happened at the same time they lost their starting goaltender, and their backup goaltender had sub-par goaltending the rest of the way.

They were carried by great goaltending, when the goaltending stopped being great they were pretty much completely unable to collect points. That was predicted and expected. They needed Bernier and Reimer to play like Vezina candidates all year, it was unsustainable and everyone knew it.

That actually proves just that. Once they didn't have unstoppable goaltending they fell. It was the only thing getting them wins.

How does that make any sense? That's like Pittsburgh losing Crosby to injury and going on a losing streak and people saying "Once they lose their franchise centre, they couldn't win anymore." Well, obviously once you lose your best player, you're going to lose more often...

 

[KGL]

How does that make any sense? That's like Pittsburgh losing Crosby to injury and going on a losing streak and people saying "Once they lose their franchise centre, they couldn't win anymore." Well, obviously once you lose your best player, you're going to lose more often...

But they have lost him before and they weren't awful. They're still a good team with him out. Leafs couldn't survive without out of this world goaltending. They were a bad team with a goaltending playing for his life. Once they didn't have it, they didn't win.

What other reason could there possibly be?

 

[Nizdizzle]

I think they'll definitely hit a rough spot in this season, thats inevitable. I don't know if we'll see as big of a collapse as previous years however. Previously, if the JVR-Bozak-Kessel line went cold, our offense died. This year we have greatly improved offensive depth that can keep the team scoring when the top line plays a dud game(s).

This is a pretty reactionary game to a horrible win against Detroit. Remember though; Detroit was well rested coming into this game, and Toronto was on the 2nd game of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 9 nights. That's a really rough scenario to go against one of the best possession teams in the league. I hazard to guess that if Pittsburgh had this same situation being would chalk it down to "good teams steal games".

 

[Divine]

But they have lost him before and they weren't awful. They're still a good team with him out. Leafs couldn't survive without out of this world goaltending. They were a bad team with a goaltending playing for his life. Once they didn't have it, they didn't win.

What other reason could there possibly be?

I'm not denying that the Leafs depend on good goaltenders. It's obvious that they do, my argument is that last year was caused by an injury to the starting goaltender, it wasn't a collapse that occurred because they were 'due', like HfBoards wants to believe. It happened because they lost their best player, and spiralled down the standings.

This years team, however, is a better team than that team. Lately, yes they have been playing terrible, but they also played 5 games in 9 days. Everyone is worried about the style of play they are playing now, but to argue they are due for a collapse is illogical.

 

[RiceCooker]

I think they're better than last year and if their goaltending remains stellar like it has the last few weeks, they'll be fine.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Do not judge the Leafs if last nights game was the only one you watched. It was not similar to the way they have played most games this season at all.

I've watched them a couple of times, the games against the Wings and 2-3 other times. They look improved but still have some of the same issues and even when they're winning it's hard to say they look very impressive.

Yes, but what you're failing to acknowledge is their starting goaltender got injured. Every team in the league would decline if their starting goaltender was injured. That doesn't prove anything - if anything it is an anomaly to have 4 points in 14GP to finish off the season. That's .29 points per game, significantly worst than every team in the NHL. Unfortunately, odds don't work the way people on HfBoards think they do - if you flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row, that doesn't mean you'll get tails 10 times in a row following that. The odds of heads are still 50/50 the 11th time, and the 12th time. There's no spin off the other way.

So when the Leafs had already accumulated all of their points up until that point, that doesn't mean they were due to never get a point again for the rest of the season. Something had to happen to cause that, in this case - it was an injury to their season MVP, the starting goaltender.

It's regression to the mean, it actually isn't that rare. A period of unsustainably good play is often followed by a period of unsustainably BAD play before things balance out. Even with Bernier healthy they would have probably had a rough time late in the season.

Btw Wings were winning a lot of games with Gustavsson as their #1 last year and with Datsyuk and Zetterberg injured. If an injury causes a team to completely fall apart it's a not a good sign for how the team is playing overall.