Is Toronto Falling Into The Same Trap As Last Year?

[sharks9]

James Mirtle (who isnt easy on the Leafs) wrote an article on this very topic this morning (advanced stats warning).



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...hot-start-for-real-this-time/article22021070/

Good article. They should regress, but not as bad as last year because they're not getting dominated as much as last year.

 

[Menzinger]

Possession wise they are clearly better, butt still aren't a fantastic team. They are slightly over performing now - but will likely end up in the 7-10 range in the east. Though with just how bad the other Eastern teams are I do suspect they'll make the playoffs.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

They are a bubble playoff team, but this year the big differences are no Orr line dragging down the team and a lot more depth for them. They should make the playoffs, but watch out for Boston as Chara and company come back.

 

[The Podium]

They are a bubble playoff team, but this year the big differences are no Orr line dragging down the team and a lot more depth for them. They should make the playoffs, but watch out for Boston as Chara and company come back.

I think thats the biggest difference. The question becomes does replacing Orr, MacLaren with Winnik, Santorelli prevent a collapse. I think it does. The top line is no longer playing 20+ minutes a night (preventing them hitting a wall), and there are now 3 other lines that can contribute offensively while being responsible for all defensive sides of the game. Just think, Carlyle had to insulate the Orr and MacLaren line by only giving them offensive zone faceoffs. To balance the ice time, for every offensive zone face off not going to the Kessel line, they were reciprocated with a defensive zone faceoff which caused all kinds of problem.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

I think thats the biggest difference. The question becomes does replacing Orr, MacLaren with Winnik, Santorelli prevent a collapse.

The collapse last year had more to do with Bernier getting clipped vs. L.A. and then Reimer coming in and doing a good job in that game, but being exposed a lot down the stretch. That should not happen this year as both goalies are playing fairly well and Holland >> McLaren, Winnik => McClement, Santorelli >>>>>>>> Orr but more importantly, Robidas and company are better than last year's D-corps and they aren't completely relying on Kessel (who seems to be quiet these days, weirdly enough) and so on. They are never going to win the adv. stats battle but the Atlantic is pretty bleuargh.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

This year's team is nothing like last year's team, and last year's team probably would have been a playoff team as well without key injuries.

In fact, last night was the first night where our goaltender really stole a game for us. Goaltending has picked up a bit in the last week or so, but it had been subpar for most of the season. As long as Bernier remains healthy, unlike last year, we should be fine.

As for offense, we have been a great offensive team for a while. This year, Bozak and Kadri have taken big steps forward, and for the first time, we actually have quality depth. Don't expect the scoring to stop. In fact, our 1st line has been our worst line this season. Carlyle is just an idiot and won't break them up. Watch out if he does.

Plus this team can actually cycle now. Clarkson doesn't suck. Bunch of youngsters ahead of schedule.

Anybody that says this is anything like last year hasn't watched this year, and doesn't understand what the problems were last year.

 

[mdobbs]

The east is so weak that I'd be shocked if the Leafs didn't make the playoffs. Offensively they are a good team and their defense and goaltending are good enough to keep them in enough games.

 

[The Macho King]

I don't think Toronto is getting outshot on purpose.

 

[seanlinden]

I'm going to say yes... but for a different reason.

Last year, their offence was winning them games that they otherwise had no business doing. They didn't neccessarily have a problem being outplayed, playing from behind and still coming away with points, relying on excellent goaltending.

This year, they have the 2nd ranked offense in the league, but that's a bit of a misnomer. They're not winning games 5-4 and 6-5, they're showing an extraordinary ability to pull away when they get a lead (lots of 4-1, 5-2 type games), but not the ability to ability to control a game from start to finish. They also haven't gotten the same calibre of goaltending this year, and defensively, haven't been able to win one for a goalie that has an off night. That's something I think one should expect of a team that averages over 3.3 goals per game.

 

[Intact]

A very common narrative in this thread are the Leafs are awful with a lead, which to the eye test, seems pretty true. But at the end of the day, we're what 11-0-0 after 2 periods with a lead(league best). 8-1-0 leading after 1 period(close to league best). Scoring first? A staggering 12-0-0 (league best)

But yeah the Leafs are bad with a lead according to shots, yes I agree, and puts our possession numbers down

 

[seanlinden]

A very common narrative in this thread are the Leafs are awful with a lead, which to the eye test, seems pretty true. But at the end of the day, we're what 11-0-0 after 2 periods with a lead(league best). 8-1-0 leading after 1 period(close to league best). Scoring first? A staggering 12-0-0 (league best)

But yeah the Leafs are bad with a lead according to shots, yes I agree, and puts our possession numbers down

Honestly, I'd argue the exact opposite. They're bad with a big lead, having a propensity for letting teams climb back a bit, but they're great with a small lead, as evidenced by those numbers.

 

[The Podium]

A very common narrative in this thread are the Leafs are awful with a lead, which to the eye test, seems pretty true. But at the end of the day, we're what 11-0-0 after 2 periods with a lead(league best). 8-1-0 leading after 1 period(close to league best). Scoring first? A staggering 12-0-0 (league best)

But yeah the Leafs are bad with a lead according to shots, yes I agree, and puts our possession numbers down

Thats done on purpose though. As soon as Toronto gets a wide enough lead Carlyle tries to implement a trap system. It was pretty evident in the games against Calgary and Vancouver. Clog the zones and don't take risks.

 

[Damisoph]

I have to come to the main boards to get rational thoughts on the Leafs. The Leafs board is unbearable.

They are definitely not the team in the last several games than they were earlier but I think they have the players to snap out of it. Their forward depth is much better this season than last. Since RC seems virtually incapable of getting them to play the way they should and can, hopefully the assistants get their ***** in gear.

 

[geometrically*]

Even if they dont collapse they are not going to finish ahead of the bolts/habs/wings/bruins

 

[zeke]

its not a trap, its just awful coaching.

 

[seanlinden]

Even if they dont collapse they are not going to finish ahead of the bolts/habs/wings/bruins

Based on what?

For the B's, you can possibly blame injuries.... but the Habs have been even bigger overachievers.

 

[geometrically*]

I hate your username. It reminds me of the commentators in NHL 15 and I don't understand what they are trying to say...

LMAO same here. So stupid but its stuck in my head

 

[Will Hunting]

I don´t know.. Pittsburgh swept the season series against them already and they were looking pretty average in those games. They´ve also lost to the Sabres 6-2 and to the Preds 9-2. Their shooting percentage as a team is probably unsustainable.

That said, I hope/think they´ll make the playoffs. Their position is already really good and it´s pretty entertaining team at the end of the day. They would also be the ideal R1 opponent for the Pens. I´m not saying that it would be 100% guaranteed win but what more should I wish than playing the Leafs in a playoffs series?

 

[Menzinger]

its not a trap, its just awful coaching.

Yep. It's horrific - it's almost as if he forbids his players to attempt any further offensive plays - tell Phil Kessel to stop attacking and you take always his main advantage on the ice

 

[Lurked4Yearz]

Based on what?

For the B's, you can possibly blame injuries.... but the Habs have been even bigger overachievers.

Please, do tell how the Canadiens are overachieving.

 

[Dirty Dan]

They almost never score when leading in the 3rd, caryle has helped some players on d but has no idea how to put away a game or run a power play.

Gardiner,franson,kadri, rielly areroutinely benched while guys like phanuef and clarkson take up PP time instead. Phanuef is good but not the best PP player we have

Kessel-Kadri-Lupul
Gardiner Franson

BOOM

 

[aufheben]

Possession wise they are clearly better, butt still aren't a fantastic team. They are slightly over performing now - but will likely end up in the 7-10 range in the east. Though with just how bad the other Eastern teams are I do suspect they'll make the playoffs.

They're still in the bottom 1/3 of the NHL, IIRC (and that was before the Red Wings game). Improving when you were 30th the year before doesn't really say much. Pretty sure those numbers have been dropping the last month as well.

 

[Paul4587]

its not a trap, its just awful coaching.

Carlyle is doing pretty well given the absolute crap of a blueline he has been given to him. The backend is marginally improved over last year but it's still among the NHLs worst.

 

[seanlinden]

Please, do tell how the Canadiens are overachieving.

4 shootout wins. A +/- that puts them on par with the Rangers (28pts), Boston (31pts), and Ottawa (27pts). When they're on their game, they're winning by a narrow margin. When they're not, they're losing fairly big.

 

[Nizdizzle]

I don´t know.. Pittsburgh swept the season series against them already and they were looking pretty average in those games. They´ve also lost to the Sabres 6-2 and to the Preds 9-2. Their shooting percentage as a team is probably unsustainable.

That said, I hope/think they´ll make the playoffs. Their position is already really good and it´s pretty entertaining team at the end of the day. They would also be the ideal R1 opponent for the Pens. I´m not saying that it would be 100% guaranteed win but what more should I wish than playing the Leafs in a playoffs series?

And they've beaten Chicago, Vancouver, Calgary, Tampa Bay, NYI...etc. You can't cherry pick out a few games and say "oh can't even beat Buffalo" to determine how good a team is. Do you not realize how ridiculous that is?