Is this the year the cup comes home? [Canada]

[Stu Grimson]

New playoff format almost guarantees it. Bettman wins again.

Your tin foil hat is on way too tight.

Try using some basic logic. There has not been a good enough Canadian team to win the Cup since 1993.

 

[Stu Grimson]

In a league described by the word 'parity,' 21-22 years is a long time - especially with so much 'parity.' I hope I eat crow soon. I admit that might be very wrong, but time will surely tell.

I am a Cub fan and they have not won anything since indoor plumbing(1908) is it a conspiracy is it a curse? Surly one time in 107 years they should win something based on probability right? Or is it just that they never had a team good enough to win?

 

[Pilky01]

I always kinda pull for the Canadian teams, but this year I am rooting more for Rogers' abject failure.

C'mon Lightning-Ducks Final!

 

[topnotch]

I am a Cub fan and they have not won anything since indoor plumbing(1908) is it a conspiracy is it a curse? Surly one time in 107 years they should win something based on probability right? Or is it just that they never had a team good enough to win?

Perhaps indoor plumbing is the root cause? The Cubs must feel so with how they keep the bathrooms at Wrigley.

 

[BoyWonderlic]

A Canadian team wins the cup every year. They are just located in the U.S

People who say this are missing the point of why this is a subject of ire for some people. It's not about the nationality of the players, it's the fact that Canadian fans never get to celebrate a championship even though they're the ones who care the most about it.

Yes there are diehard U.S. fans, and yes there are some Canadian fans of U.S. teams, but the majority of Canada hasn't been able to celebrate a title in decades. No parades in Canadian cities; no banners going up.

Being American I personally don't care, but I can see how some Canadians think it's a little ridiculous, again given that the Canadian markets are the ones that cherish it the most.

 

[Man Rocket]

I always wondered why there are 23 US teams and only 7 Canadian teams (i think anyway i may have missed). Is is a money thing? because we know the popularity is insane in Canada (US is getting more popularity every year tho). Why aren't there something like 10-12 or even 15 Canadian teams? I'm sure there are worth cities that could support it in Canada (quebec city, hamilton, sasketchaton sp?, second toronto team etc) , and cities in the US that don't make as much sense (florida's, arizona, carolina etc)

 

[General Zodd]

People who say this are missing the point of why this is a subject of ire for some people. It's not about the nationality of the players, it's the fact that Canadian fans never get to celebrate a championship even though they're the ones who care the most about it.

Yes there are diehard U.S. fans, and yes there are some Canadian fans of U.S. teams, but the majority of Canada hasn't been able to celebrate a title in decades. No parades in Canadian cities; no banners going up.

Being American I personally don't care, but I can see how some Canadians think it's a little ridiculous, again given that the Canadian markets are the ones that cherish it the most.

Going to be honest here, would be nice for the Cup to be awarded to a Canadian-based team but it has nothing to do with country vs country. I'll take Canada winning the Gold medal in the Olympics ever single time if I could only pick one thing. The fact is that these are club teams representing your city which happens to be filled with many talented players from all over. I'm a fan of the Sens and I'd like to see them get back to finals again but the Olympics(were it) for me!!

 

[Pilky01]

Once my team is eliminated (please hold the jokes and laughter) I generally just root for whichever team will have the biggest parade. Its so pathetic when the Stanley Cup champions are reduced to having a "parade" around the arena parking lot.

I don't really care what sport were talking about, I want to see ticker-tape parades when teams win championships; not parking lot BBQ's.

 

[The Head Crusher]

I am going to say no

 

[danaluvsthekings]

Ok, my bad. I got a little carried away, but twenty plus years of great hockey minds running hockey clubs in Canada can't all be wrong... n'est pas?

As for evidence... a generation has passed. Even the Leafs can't suck for that long.

Toronto was plenty bad in the years from 1967 to when Bettman took over in the early 90s, so there was a whole generation of fans before Bettman that had to deal with some bad hockey in Toronto.

You're over-reaching as well by saying that all Canadian teams since Bettman took over have been run by "great hockey minds". I don't think anyone is going to ge considering Kevin Lowe a great hockey mind for example.

 

[LAKings88]

Probably not.

 

[amin723]

The distribution of Canadian teams among the divisions has no bearing on the probability of winning the Cup. The new format increases the probability of Canadian teams playing each other, but that just guarantees one team will move forward and one won't.

Think about it this way, there are two Canadian teams and each has a 50% chance of winning any particular series. If the two teams play each other 1 will always advance and one won't. If they play other teams they could either both advance, both lose, or one advances. Since the probability of winning is 50%, 25% of the time both will advance, 25% of the time neither will advance, and 50% of the time one will advance. The expected number of teams advancing is the same; we multiple the number of teams advancing by the probability of that event occurring, and sum the results.

Scenario 1: 1 team advances with a 100% probability - 1*1.0 = 1
Scenario 2: 2 teams advance at 25%, 1 team at 50%, 0 at 25% = 2*0.25 + 1*0.5 + 0*0.25 = 1

The only way this changes is if the Canadian teams are better, or worse, on average than the American teams. If the Canadian teams are better, playing each other is a detriment. If the Canadian teams are worse, playing each other is a benefit. Given recent history, the Canadian teams have been worse, and thus, this system is actually increasing their chances of winning the Cup by guaranteeing that some teams advance.

your assumptions begin at the start of the playoffs and end after the first round. You're right in that there is minimal impact in the first round, but it also makes it unlikely that the chips will line up for 1 good Canadian team to come to the Conference Finals as the only way that can happen is if the Wild Card team that crosses divisions in the East is better than the Metro division winner, and the Jets are the winner of the division and not playing a good Canadian wild card.

Your assumptions seem to ignore that the increasing the possibility of a 100% assurance of a Canadian champion by a pretty large amount by ensuring there are 2, 2, 2, and 1 Canadian teams in each division would have a large effect at getting 4 Canadian teams into the Conference finals, or at least 3.

Obviously they all have to be good, but in the instance where they're all lumped together, if they're all good they're eliminated, and it's highly unlikely that the team that crosses divisions as a Wild Card in the East will be very good. If they're all good and split apart until at least the conference finals

This post is confusing, but I think my point is at least somewhat clear.

I'm just trying to say, increasing the odds of having an all Canadian Conference final which you would do by splitting them up 2, 2, 2, and 1 is not something you can just ignore in terms of the overall probability of a Canadian Team winning the cup.

 

[topnotch]

your assumptions begin at the start of the playoffs and end after the first round. You're right in that there is minimal impact in the first round, but it also makes it unlikely that the chips will line up for 1 good Canadian team to come to the Conference Finals as the only way that can happen is if the Wild Card team that crosses divisions in the East is better than the Metro division winner, and the Jets are the winner of the division and not playing a good Canadian wild card.

Your assumptions seem to ignore that the increasing the possibility of a 100% assurance of a Canadian champion by a pretty large amount by ensuring there are 2, 2, 2, and 1 Canadian teams in each division would have a large effect at getting 4 Canadian teams into the Conference finals, or at least 3.

Obviously they all have to be good, but in the instance where they're all lumped together, if they're all good they're eliminated, and it's highly unlikely that the team that crosses divisions as a Wild Card in the East will be very good. If they're all good and split apart until at least the conference finals

This post is confusing, but I think my point is at least somewhat clear.

I'm just trying to say, increasing the odds of having an all Canadian Conference final which you would do by splitting them up 2, 2, 2, and 1 is not something you can just ignore in terms of the overall probability of a Canadian Team winning the cup.

My assumptions don't end at the first round. The same math can be applied to later rounds as the expected number of teams advancing can then be multiplied by the probability of advancing in the new round.

Or you can look at it from the bracket perspective - say there are 4 Canadian teams and 4 brackets. The teams could be clumped into one bracket guaranteeing a single Canadian winner, or they can be spread evenly where the expected number of Canadian teams is still 1 (1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4).

Disregarding the math, it's a simple concept - if the Canadian teams are spread out, it increases the probability that a Canadian team advances in any of the brackets (i.e., say 4 brackets rather than 1), but decreases the probability of a Canadian team advancing in each of those brackets (i.e. 1/4 in each bracket rather than 1/1 from one bracket); if the Canadian teams are all lumped together, it does just the opposite.

Think about it this way, say Canada was its own conference with 7 teams, and the US was its own with 7. There would be two conference tournaments with the two finalists meeting to determine the Cup. Every year Canada would get 1 team in the final increasing the chance of winning said final, but would never be assured of winning. If two conferences mixed teams, then it could be a final of all Canadian assuring a win, but that would be a low probability of getting to that final; it also could be a final with no Canadian teams assuring a loss (also a low probability event).

If the probability of winning a series is the same whether a Canadian team is playing another Canadian team or an American one, it doesn't matter. The math evens out.

 

[Savannah Skunk]

Alright.

(Note to self, avoid posting after vehement conversations with fellow fans about any type of controversial subject, especially when beer and wings are involved after a Canadiens loss with 1.1 seconds left. I'm not even a Habs fan. My apologies for any asinine comments made.)

Many Canadians are unhappy about the cup drought. I believe the issues may linked to Canadian identity in some manner. As Canadians, we follow basketball, get fired up for an NFL game, but don't breathe and live any sport quite like Hockey. Perhaps what has exacerbated that feeling is watching Quebec and Winnipeg head south for 'greener' pastures (no pun intended) while expansion tinkers with projects in the sun belt. Having lived in Quebec City, I know how angry many Nordique fans are (mostly with Marcel Aubut - the owner who sold the club), nevermind the salt in the wound when Colorado won the cup the year after. While hindsight is 20/20, perhaps the league could have done more to find new owners within Canada (as they have done with the Coyotes in recent years) to keep those teams in their respective cities. I believe Canada could support several more teams. While there was (and still is) a huge push to market the NHL in the United States which has had great results, some feel that the bread and butter which helped make that happen was neglected. There was a time when Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa fans all feared losing their teams because of financial issues, despite fan support being off the charts. Some memories linger.

It's fantastic for Winnipeg fans to have their team back, but I do feel for those fans that grew to love the sport in Atlanta. I hope there are no more relocations as it would be terrible for any fan to watch their team leave. I do hope they expand within Canada, but that is highly unlikely.

That aside, with further review, the Canadian teams have been very unlucky in the playoffs as well. In the last 20 years or so, at least four Canadian teams were in the finals, some going as far as seven games. If one of those teams had won, the title of this thread would likely be different. Nevertheless, the very concept of the cup being 'home' in Canada rests more on the fact that Canadians feel a cultural identity with Hockey rather than entitlement. 22 years is a long time.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I always wondered why there are 23 US teams and only 7 Canadian teams (i think anyway i may have missed). Is is a money thing? because we know the popularity is insane in Canada (US is getting more popularity every year tho). Why aren't there something like 10-12 or even 15 Canadian teams? I'm sure there are worth cities that could support it in Canada (quebec city, hamilton, sasketchaton sp?, second toronto team etc) , and cities in the US that don't make as much sense (florida's, arizona, carolina etc)

The NHL attempted to take the long term approach, and the Southern expansion was in the goal to expand the reach of the game (and a US national footprint). Those markets are large enough to eventually be able to support an average NHL franchise, something that many of smaller markets just lack the population and corporate support to generate enough revenue. I'm sure that it's taking longer than the NHL expected, but IMO it's very challenging to create a fan-base from scratch. This is made more difficult because practically none of the people have actually played the sport, and several of the expansion ownership groups were incompetent.

 

[Dr Pepper]

People who say this are missing the point of why this is a subject of ire for some people. It's not about the nationality of the players, it's the fact that Canadian fans never get to celebrate a championship even though they're the ones who care the most about it.

Yes there are diehard U.S. fans, and yes there are some Canadian fans of U.S. teams, but the majority of Canada hasn't been able to celebrate a title in decades. No parades in Canadian cities; no banners going up.

Being American I personally don't care, but I can see how some Canadians think it's a little ridiculous, again given that the Canadian markets are the ones that cherish it the most.

Meh, it's just a numbers game. 23 teams in the States, to only 7 for us. Over 3x more likely to see an American team win, which is why we haven't had a Cup-winning franchise north of the 49th in over two decades.

I don't lose any sleep over it.

 

[KINGS17]

Message from the future:

This is the canucks' road to the cup:

Rd 1 - vs calgary = canucks in 4
Rd 2 - vs kesler and the ducks - canucks in 6
WCF - vs hawks = rivalry revived, canucks in 7

Stanley cup: All canadian matchup
Vancouver vs Montreal = canucks in 6

Kesler will be retired for some time before the Canucks are contenders again. If they are ever contenders again.

 

[Habitat]

Your tin foil hat is on way too tight.

Try using some basic logic. There has not been a good enough Canadian team to win the Cup since 1993.

To say the '11 canucks weren't good enough to win the cup is utter ignorance.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Oilers of 2018 season will bring the cup back to Canada

 

[Butsy Erickson]

no cup for Canada till the 93 curse is lifted

 

[Patrice Krejci*]

To say the '11 canucks weren't good enough to win the cup is utter ignorance.

But they didn't!

 

[TeamRenzo]

The only Canadian team that I care about winning the cup is Ottawa. NHL is not a country sport, that is why we have the world cup, Olympic hockey, etc.

Most NHL'ers are Canadian, Canada owns Olympic gold, WJ gold and hockey in general. That is more than enough for me.

 

[Church of Toews*]

Toews, or Getzlaf could possibly return the cup to Canada

 

[Caged Great]

The Flames will do it.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

I always wondered why there are 23 US teams and only 7 Canadian teams (i think anyway i may have missed). Is is a money thing? because we know the popularity is insane in Canada (US is getting more popularity every year tho). Why aren't there something like 10-12 or even 15 Canadian teams? I'm sure there are worth cities that could support it in Canada (quebec city, hamilton, sasketchaton sp?, second toronto team etc) , and cities in the US that don't make as much sense (florida's, arizona, carolina etc)

The US has 10X the population of Canada. If Canada had the same population as the US, Canada would have 70 teams - so Canada is plenty represented.