Is the Leafs Defensive play really that bad?
- Thread starter Vaive50
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CantLoseWithMatthews
Registered User
- Sep 28, 2015
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nope, been into them for a while. I recommend you to pursue them if you're interested. they really helped strengthen my hockey knowledge
lol, right , a high team corsi doesn't really mean much,
you should add context to your Dermott post, like last game against the Pens, he played the most minutes against Sprong,grant,cullen. Hopefully next season he can match up against top 6 lines.
You should give them a go, then you can objectively see how Zaitsev's results have actually been
P.s. there not great
Pssst, i was the trying to teach you all about context 5/6 years ago when you were using hero chart and claiming Gardiner was top 5 best D'man in the league because of corsi... ask the swedish guy, he never even knew what a zone start was or QoC, situation play, etc
i will look at zaitsevs adv stats now and see if we can get a debate going,
i hope you know your adv stats because i can manipulate them into my favor lol
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
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Rielly A+ qoc, 50.5avgpos%
Hainsey A+ qoc, 50.8avgpos%
top pair handling elite competition very well.
Gardiner A- qoc, 48.2avgpos%
Zaitsev A- qoc, 47.8avgpos%
the 2nd pair has improved dramatically lately - still underwater but getting closer to break even, even against above average 2nd pair competition.
Dermott C- qoc, 62.0avgpos%
Ozzy D+ qoc, 57.9avgpos%
3rd pair is just dominating their 3rd pair quality of competition. they probably could handle significantly tougher usage.
Marincin D+ qoc, 57.0avgpos%
Holl B- qoc, 64.9avgpos%
fill ins have been good too.
so....
Very good top pair
Below average 2nd pair (but improving)
Excellent bottom pair and extra dmen.
and oh yeah, Sandin-Liljegren are both top-end prospects that can step in anytime.
our D corps is pretty dang good.
Hainsey A+ qoc, 50.8avgpos%
top pair handling elite competition very well.
Gardiner A- qoc, 48.2avgpos%
Zaitsev A- qoc, 47.8avgpos%
the 2nd pair has improved dramatically lately - still underwater but getting closer to break even, even against above average 2nd pair competition.
Dermott C- qoc, 62.0avgpos%
Ozzy D+ qoc, 57.9avgpos%
3rd pair is just dominating their 3rd pair quality of competition. they probably could handle significantly tougher usage.
Marincin D+ qoc, 57.0avgpos%
Holl B- qoc, 64.9avgpos%
fill ins have been good too.
so....
Very good top pair
Below average 2nd pair (but improving)
Excellent bottom pair and extra dmen.
and oh yeah, Sandin-Liljegren are both top-end prospects that can step in anytime.
our D corps is pretty dang good.
Pssst, i was the trying to teach you all about context 5/6 years ago when you were using hero chart and claiming Gardiner was top 5 best D'man in the league because of corsi... ask the swedish guy, he never even knew what a zone start was or QoC, situation play, etc
i will look at zaitsevs adv stats now and see if we can get a debate going,
This is know
If the other team has the puck more than you when your on the ice, if the other team has more shots than you when your on the ice, when the other team has more high danger chances than you when your on the ice you've got a serious issue
I'd also like to point out that he's riding and insanely high PDO and were still giving up more goals when he's on the ice with a sv% over 930
That's bad, and when that equalizes it's going to get worse
above you are talking corsi when you say shots, Zaitsev plays the most minutes with the Taveras line which has a 49.85 corsi at 5-vs-5. Zaitsev also does double duty and is played in high danger situations with the lead at risk and a 60% d'zone starts, this is giving him a weak cf%
His PDO is slightly above normal.
- 105 ~ Hainsey
- 104 ~ Gardiner
- 103 ~ Rielly
- 101 ~ Zaitsev
- 90 ~ Dermott
so whats else you got?
above you are talking corsi when you say shots, Zaitsev plays the most minutes with the Taveras line which has a 49.85 corsi at 5-vs-5. Zaitsev also does double duty and is played in high danger situations with the lead at risk and a 60% d'zone starts, this is giving him a weak cf%
His PDO is slightly above normal.
He has a better team On-Ice Save Percentage at Even Strength Save % than Rielly, Dermott.
- 105 ~ Hainsey
- 104 ~ Gardiner
- 103 ~ Rielly
- 101 ~ Zaitsev
- 90 ~ Dermott
so whats else you got?
Where are you getting your stats from? Because natural statrick reads way differently, his PDO is sky high which is understandable if you look at Andersen rolling a 930+ sv% with Zaitsev on the ice
I also only discuss 5-vs-5, even strength ... i didn't reference natural statrick but all the sites get there stats from the same place, i will link to natural statrick for you.
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick
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Hard to defend Zaitsev sometimes, hes just too damn boring in his role.
Once Gards found his legs(after the first Pens game IMO) the pairing has been on a tear against crazy QoC(crazy for a 2 pairing) that has seen them rise from "B" ratings on zeke's chart there to into the "A's".
Just take last game.....
You got a guy like Malkin that's tearing up the league and is at or near the top in PPG and the pairing completely shuts him out at home last night. 0 HD chances against 5v5. Zaitsev is then part of the main pairing that that completely shuts down the Pens great PP allowing only 1 HD chance against.
Zaitsev's night ends up with 20 minutes played, 6 of those minutes on the PK. Malkin was on for 14 minutes against him and Crosby was on for 8.
All situations with Zaitsev on the ice:
High danger chances: 4-1 Leafs
Goals scored: 2-0 Leafs.
A third of the game, one of the hottest lines in hockey and a top ranked power play got as many good scoring chances as Tyler Ennis did in his 10 minutes played.
Not exactly a sexy headline but I fully expect to hear that Zaitsev was under 50% corsi 5v5 last night in some article, forcing one of the most dangerous lines in hockey to taking weak shots from the outside.
Zaitsev is still just a solid 4D and is not going to do this every night but I didn't see that much praise for him in the post game.
Once Gards found his legs(after the first Pens game IMO) the pairing has been on a tear against crazy QoC(crazy for a 2 pairing) that has seen them rise from "B" ratings on zeke's chart there to into the "A's".
Just take last game.....
You got a guy like Malkin that's tearing up the league and is at or near the top in PPG and the pairing completely shuts him out at home last night. 0 HD chances against 5v5. Zaitsev is then part of the main pairing that that completely shuts down the Pens great PP allowing only 1 HD chance against.
Zaitsev's night ends up with 20 minutes played, 6 of those minutes on the PK. Malkin was on for 14 minutes against him and Crosby was on for 8.
All situations with Zaitsev on the ice:
High danger chances: 4-1 Leafs
Goals scored: 2-0 Leafs.
A third of the game, one of the hottest lines in hockey and a top ranked power play got as many good scoring chances as Tyler Ennis did in his 10 minutes played.
Not exactly a sexy headline but I fully expect to hear that Zaitsev was under 50% corsi 5v5 last night in some article, forcing one of the most dangerous lines in hockey to taking weak shots from the outside.
Zaitsev is still just a solid 4D and is not going to do this every night but I didn't see that much praise for him in the post game.
You tried to push an opinion that the higher the PDO, the worse the player is, you shot yourself in the foot Kiwi ...
You tried to push an opinion that the higher the PDO, the worse the player is, you shot yourself in the foot Kiwi ...
His possession and shot metrics would strongly disagree Leafs, very strongly
They are bloody awful
I have some doubts about those PDO numbers as well, if he's getting better than 930% goaltending his PDO would be much closer to the 1.021 I was looking at
bud, his PDO on Natural Stat Trick is 1.021 I will list the PDO of our D from that site.
have a good one Kiwi
cookie
Fresh From The Oven
One should expect to see lower Corsi / Fenwick figures from the players that are on the team's penalty kill. Oftentimes there's an increase in shots against in the 15 or so seconds following the man advantage due to the fact that the other team has a "free" breakout available to them or has possession of the puck already in the zone. I think the Russian defenders have been pretty good this year but I'm still waiting to see good performances at home against speedy teams. Next game against Las Vegas should be interesting to say the least.
HamiltonNHL
Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
- Jan 4, 2012
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HamiltonNHL
Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
- Jan 4, 2012
- 20,906
- 11,414
I wouldn't look too closely at the shot based advaned stats like Corsi for the leafs defense this year.
The zone usage has been so weird recently. Gardiner and Z seeing around 35-40% offensive zone starts while the rest of the pairings were in the 60+% offensive zone start range.
If you are going to compare Gardiner and Z's shot differential based stats to the other defenders the huge disparity in zone usage needs to be incorporated. If a player is starting in the offensive zone like half as often as their teammates it is going to be very difficult to have a positive relative shot differential (rel CF%) due to pretty simple statistics, I.e. the relative probability of a shot for in the offensive zone is a lot higher than a shot against in the offensive zone etc.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
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HamiltonNHL
Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
- Jan 4, 2012
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Liminality
Registered User
- Oct 22, 2008
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Tied for 12th (Boston) for the lowest shots on goal per game. We're also tied for 7th in the league when it comes to high danger chances against while we're tied for 13th for high danger chances for.Leafs quietly have one of the lowest GA in the league with 40 through 15 games.
Freddy and the boys are doing something right.
Maybe our d core is sneaky good like Vegas last year
I really can't wait till this team is running at full strength.
