Is the 2021 1st available?

[Duke Silver]

Cant keep dumping 1sts every year. Gotta keep restocking the cupboard.

This.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

It depends on who is coming back.

If you get a great defenseman out of the deal (i.e. AJ + 1st type package), it should be on the table. That might be the final piece to building a winner.

Otherwise, you keep the pick and focus on moving other pieces.

 

[I am Canadian]

I'd rather we hold it - our 1st rounders have given us a lot of value (Sandin, Liljegren). Liljegren is developing nicely and Sandin looks like a steal.

Robertson is also looking like a steal and is exactly the cheap ELC talented players that we need to fill out a roster with three 11M players.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Our biggest asset so far this year has been our farm system. With being so close to the cap , drafting in the first round will get gradually more important.

But is it important in 2021?

Like I said eariler what if Columbus goes cold and a guy like David Savard becomes available? Or Josh Manson with the ducks? You add one of those guys that might be the piece

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I'd rather we hold it - our 1st rounders have given us a lot of value (Sandin, Liljegren). Liljegren is developing nicely and Sandin looks like a steal.

Robertson is also looking like a steal and is exactly the cheap ELC talented players that we need to fill out a roster with three 11M players.

That's another reason this thread exists.

I think with guys like Lilly, Sandin and Robertson all looking good we can afford it.

 

[7even]

Stages at which it's reasonable to trade 3 years of 1st round picks:

1. You're Pittsburgh and have won multiple Cups

That's it, that's the list.

 

[BrainyBomber]

We have the youngest core and management in the league with an improving cap situation upcoming. We'll be challenging for years so no need to throw away more 1sts right now.

Now would be great to score a Savard since he has term but not with a top pick or the 3 gems in the minors.

 

[Bluebear]

It's so competitive and the odds of winning long in any year, that I feel the best chance to win is to try and build a team that can be competitive for a long time and have more kicks at the can. With the crap start to the year and lack of cap space I'd rather they stayed pat or even sold a UFA D tben waste assets on a rental this year. Make only trades that make sense for the future this year, load up and maybe get a rental another season when it makes more sense.

 

[ARoggy94]

Cant keep dumping 1sts every year. Gotta keep restocking the cupboard.

ideally, yes. but if the deal is there to put you over the edge you really have to take it. i dont want to become present day chicago without winning any cups but i trust dubas better than i would bowman to fill out the depth of this roster with free agent signings/deeper draft picks/european signings.

 

[saffronleaf]

I mean if we pick like we did in the 2nd and 3rd round last year I'm fine with moving it, but because of the conditions of the pick this year (top 10 protected) I don't think we can move next years 1st until after this season anyways and the 2020 pick is locked in for Carolina.

we could give up the 2021 1st conditionally (on the condition that the Leafs don't get a top 10 pick this year, and if they do, then the other team gets a 2022 1st). assuming we're safely in the playoffs, that should be just as good as giving the 2021 1st unconditionally.

 

[TopCheese]

Need to keep this one

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Devils advocate.

-Leafs have been signing player abroad to fill in gaps.

-Most of there best players are 25 or younger.
It's a unique situation where our "cupboard" doesnt need refilling when most of our elite players will still likely be elite in a few years they are pretty young.

-Leafs scouts are good. First pick aside the make up of the team is from various rounds.

- Leafs cap only gets better in the future, we are tight in cap now, trading assets and other pieces is more important now then later. If cap works especially taking less back helps in multiple ways.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

It's so competitive and the odds of winning long in any year, that I feel the best chance to win is to try and build a team that can be competitive for a long time and have more kicks at the can. With the crap start to the year and lack of cap space I'd rather they stayed pat or even sold a UFA D tben waste assets on a rental this year. Make only trades that make sense for the future this year, load up and maybe get a rental another season when it makes more sense.

Have you seen how they are playing? they can't sell this year

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Devils advocate.

-Leafs have been signing player abroad to fill in gaps.

-Most of there best players are 25 or younger.
It's a unique situation where our "cupboard" doesnt need refilling when most of our elite players will still likely be elite in a few years they are pretty young.

-Leafs scouts are good. First pick aside the make up of the team is from various rounds.

- Leafs cap only gets better in the future, we are tight in cap now, trading assets and other pieces is more important now then later. If cap works especially taking less back helps in multiple ways.

So you want to sell? they can't sell

 

[horner]

We are going to be getting 1 or 2 first rd pks from players that will be traded.

Kappy
Johnson

One way or another we will have a first rd pk in 2021 ours or another teams pick.

Don't forget there is an expansion draft coming up.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I wouldn't think so. with our cap situation (currently) going forward we are going to need a stead flow of ELC's.
I have to believe if we move our 1st next year it would have to be for something of desperate need like the Marleau dumping. They didnt wanna spend a 1st but really had no choice. for a little bit there I was atleast happy he top-10 protected it. now I dont mind seeing that 1st go now that Keefe has awoken this team.

I wonder what the price to move Marleau was without including our 1st. Liljegren maybe?

 

[All Mod Cons]

I'd rather not.

Keep the 1st

 

[Funk21]

I don't know that Johnsson AND Kerfoot need to go.

Soup won't be hard to sign due to his injury he can't ask for what he could have

We will if we want to lock him up for 4 years. Ideally what I would want. I suspect it will be around 3 million.

Regarding Kerfoot if we have the opportunity to lock up a player like Pietrangelo at 8.5-9 Kerfoot is the odd man out. There was a lot of chatter at the start of the season that Grigorenko was being heavily courted by Dubas. He seems to be tearing it up in the KHL and he adds even more size to our bottom 6. Likely could be had for much cheaper too.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Let's take a look at the team over this year and the following ones, excluding depth pieces.

LW:
Hyman - 2 years then UFA
Mikheyev - 1 year then RFA
Johnsson - 3 years then UFA
Engvall - 1 year then RFA

I'd be very surprised if we don't find a way to extend Mikheyev and Engvall. That gives us four players that can play top nine, with Kerfoot and Willy able to transition over and Moore who can play in a pinch. There's enough talent and there's good depth. There's also Robertson coming in a couple of years. All in all, we are well situated now and in the future.

C:
Matthews - 5 years then UFA
Tavares - 6 years then UFA
Kerfoot - 4 years then UFA
Spezza - 1 year then UFA

This is a strong group. Kerfoot is good in the #3C spot but Spezza can also hold down that position. In case of injuries, Willy is also able to take a spot here. We have a bit of quality depth issues here, but nothing that can't be solved by a restructuring this year. We'll need to find a new Spezza for next year though. There's also enough term that no particular additions need to be done for at least 4 years.

RW:
Marner - 6 years then UFA
Nylander - 5 years then UFA
Kapanen - 3 years then RFA

Top-end talent is great but the depth isn't ideal. We have a couple of players who can fill in on the fourth line, but not a lot of options that I'm comfortable moving into the top nine. However, I believe both Engvall and Mikheyev can move over if necessary, and the LW side could handle that. There's also Bracco, as a bit of an unknown. So the current situation is fine, and all of these guys will likely be around for a while. It'll do.

LD:
Rielly - 3 years then UFA
Muzzin - 1 year then UFA
Dermott - 1 year then RFA
Sandin - 3 years then RFA

Here things start to get interesting, however I think we're still in a good position. There's the possibility to re-sign Muzzin if we can get him on a very short term, but the other three should be around for at least three more years and that's a group I'd be very comfortable with. Depth is an issue from next year and forward, but right now we're strong here.

RD:
Barrie - 1 year then UFA
Holl - 4 years then UFA
Ceci - 1 year then UFA
Liljegren - 3 years then RFA

This is still a weak area. Barrie is a terrific player for an offensive spot, and Holl is establishing himself as a second pairing option. Liljegren coming up helps. However, Barrie is gone after the year, leaving us with two options even with Liljegren. So we're relatively weak here right now, and we're in trouble next year. There's a solution there though since we have Holl and Liljegren under long-term control. If we re-sign Muzzin, it allows us to move someone over to this side. Otherwise, one player with term will be needed, the sooner the better, and we also need improved depth here.

G:
Andersen - 2 years then UFA

We have a solid starter and two #3 guys. So the depth is lacking already, and there's no immediate option next year. This is the position that will make or break us long-term. If Scott or Woll pans out, we're golden. If they don't, we're in big trouble. I want to stress that we shouldn't re-sign Andersen. He's already at an age where goaltenders generally decline, he'll command a huge contract, and those tend to be the worst contracts to give. Unless he's willing to give us an unprecedented short term for a guy with his profile, he should be let go.

Conclusion:
An upgrade at RD would be preferable, but it needs to be someone with enough term to help us long-term. Otherwise it's a band-aid. A real backup goaltender wouldn't hurt either, but the real target here should really be a #1B option. It would give us strength at the position while allowing transition towards the next starter in Woll or Scott, or give us time to find something else.

The most expendable asset with value would be one of our LWs, and my preference there might be Johnsson. Engvall won't cost much to extend, and with the injury to Mikheyev I'm guessing that he won't command a big contract compared to how good he is either. There's also Bracco, who supposedly have some good value. I'm not sure the organization believes in him as a long-term top nine option, otherwise Kapanen could be available. Especially given the talk that some teams absolutely loves him.

There's another option that might be worth exploring, and that might be very controversial. The player that in my opinion holds the most value on the market compared to quality is Rielly. If we extend Muzzin, we could still roll a strong trio on the LD, and Rielly would bring in a huge haul. With two years remaining, I'm expecting that we could acquire an absolute top flight RD prospect, or something of a similar value. That could give us three long-term pieces on the RD, while Muzzin buys Sandin and Dermott time to solidify the top four.

If Johnsson could bring back a solid #1B with term or RFA status, and we move Rielly in the summer for a high-end young RD, I'd be very comfortable with essentially every single position now, next season, and going forward. It would be even more youth, but I think we'd be talking about a lot of guys who could come in and make an immediate impact. I'm not counting any surging prospects here, but I also don't count any unexpected declines either so I think it evens out.

 

[The Iceman]

Depends what is available.

If a few teams trade their 1sts and no other teams will move their 1sts supply might exceed demand and a bargain may be available...I like bargains.

 

[Mess]

Continuously dealing away 1st round picks is not a recipe for long term success.

You're mortgaging your future for the present.

 

[LeafGrief]

I think we could trade it if it meant getting a high quality long term RD solution, like Savard or Manson.

We've got wingers coming out of our ears at this point. Over the next couple of years we're going to be moving guys like Johnsson to get cap space and that will bring back some of those other futures that we have/will spend. We obviously want to keep our drafting strong with lots of quality picks, but we do have to find the balance of adding for the now when there's real opportunity and keeping an eye on the future to keep the train rolling.

The pick is available if there's a can't miss deal that gives us term at a position of need, otherwise we hang on to it. I'm not overly worried about our future prospect cupboard because we're going to be moving out some guys anyways and we'll get nice futures packages for young 20g scoring wingers.

 

[ACC1224]

Wasn’t that pick traded conditionally to Carolina?

 

[Buds17]

I doubt it happens in exchange for a rental. Neither Grundstrom nor Durzi were first round draft picks, so I get why a 1st was included/asked for there. The Carolina trade was about thinking that the 1st was going to be less valuable to the Leafs in comparison to whatever other asset the Canes would have been looking for instead (roster player).

 

[Razz]

I don't think the 2021 1st will be made available. The Leafs are about to promote Lily and Sandin to their NHL lineup and have to re-stock the Marlies over the next several years. Otherwise, they won't be able to keep the lineup stocked and stay under the cap.