Is Patrick Roy the greatest of all time?

[Bear of Bad News]

I am open to clutch arguments, I'd just like to see more substance than win/loss records in overtime. There's lots of ways you can look at a guy's play in high leverage situations, tied late, up a goal late, game 7s, elimination games, etc.

This one, I've done:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1702733

To the extent that sample size is an (obvious) issue, my conclusions were that Patrick Roy (post #4) is a good playoff goaltender (duh) but not significantly better in elimination games, and that Dominik Hasek (post #7) may be clutch by this measure, but the sample size is too small to know with any degree of certainty.

 

[Rhiessan71]

Yep thank you.
I have no idea where people get this from.
Haseks professional hockey career was just as long as Roy's.

Except we were told that using anything Hasek did after his first retirement shouldn't count

 

[quoipourquoi]

This one, I've done:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1702733

To the extent that sample size is an (obvious) issue, my conclusions were that Patrick Roy (post #4) is a good playoff goaltender (duh) but not significantly better in elimination games, and that Dominik Hasek (post #7) may be clutch by this measure, but the sample size is too small to know with any degree of certainty.

I did quality starts for elimination games and games when trailing in a series during the goalie project. It helped explain how so many of Roy's losing series went at least 7:

The following is a look at the games at or above the league average save percentage in a pressure playoff game.

Team Facing Elimination
Patrick Roy: 15 games at/above, 8 games below (65.2%)
Dominik Hasek: 8 games at/above, 5 games below (61.5%)

Team Trailing in the Series
Patrick Roy: 35 games at/above, 10 games below (77.7%)
Dominik Hasek: 15 games at/above, 13 games below (53.6%)

Given Hasek’s small sample size in elimination games, there is little difference between him and Patrick Roy in terms of their expected performance in an elimination game. Looking at their respective performances when trailing in a series is a completely different story. Dominik Hasek, who typically delivers a quality playoff game (66.9% - a figure even higher than his regular season average), falls to 53.6% once his team is backed into a corner.

When Patrick Roy’s team is down in a series, his fight or flight instinct kicks in and his already high percentage of quality playoff games (68.7% - higher than his regular season number, Hasek’s regular season number, and Hasek’s playoff number) skyrockets to 77.7%. For all the press he gets in regard to his overtime success (69.0% winning percentage to Hasek’s 51.7%), he is even more likely than that to deliver a quality game when trailing in a playoff series.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Riiight, it was that one incident from before his 1st retirement that has been brought up as "balance" for Roy's stampede out of Montreal.

Hey, now, you're the one who said 1997 vs. Ottawa was a series "which 'required' winning to avoid tarnishing anything he had accomplished in the regular season." I'm just the poster pointing out that Hasek was cleared to play but would rather Steve Shields determine the amount of tarnish on that particular Hart trophy.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Except we were told that using anything Hasek did after his first retirement shouldn't count

No, you weren't. You were told that, given everything that he had already done up to age 40, there's only so much you can give him for his performance and only so much you can take away for his behaviour in years afterward - "net impact" on overall reckoning... pun originally unintended.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Hey, now, you're the one who said 1997 vs. Ottawa was a series "which 'required' winning to avoid tarnishing anything he had accomplished in the regular season." I'm just the poster pointing out that Hasek was cleared to play but would rather Steve Shields determine the amount of tarnish on that particular Hart trophy.

And play he did, stopping 63 of the first 68 shots Ottawa fired in the playoffs. But I get what you mean. I still think he would have come back if he thought he could, but also suspect there could have been more to that particular story. Point still being, that out of the well over a dozen playoff series' Hasek still managed to appear in, all but just one or maybe two (if 2 points in the standings overshadows the return/addition of Mario to Jagr/Kovalev/Straka and the boys half way through '00/01) were as an "under dog". Stark contrast to Roy's situation.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I did quality starts for elimination games and games when trailing in a series during the goalie project. It helped explain how so many of Roy's losing series went at least 7:

Somehow I've got an extra Roy facing elimination game than you do (I've got 24 vs. 23).

I'm generally not a fan of quality starts because it doesn't really scale to the era or the competition very well. That's neither here nor there, of course.

What I saw is that Roy and Hasek are both slightly better than "expected" when facing elimination, although neither results are statistically significant.

 

[Rhiessan71]

No, you weren't. You were told that, given everything that he had already done up to age 40, there's only so much you can give him for his performance and only so much you can take away for his behaviour in years afterward - "net impact" on overall reckoning... pun originally unintended.

Look man, it's real simple here.
If you want to use Hasek's post retirement stretch to pump up his longevity vs Roy, you are going to have to accept the negatives involved ed during that stretch as well.
You can't have it both ways.
If you don't want it introduced into evidence then don't open the door.
Cause if you do, I'll be coming through that door faster than a fat kid on a smartie.

Argue his longevity and accept the negatives or give up on the longevity and the negatives are left out.
Pick ONE.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Somehow I've got an extra Roy facing elimination game than you do (I've got 24 vs. 23).

I'm generally not a fan of quality starts because it doesn't really scale to the era or the competition very well. That's neither here nor there, of course.

What I saw is that Roy and Hasek are both slightly better than "expected" when facing elimination, although neither results are statistically significant.

Yeah, I've been slowly transitioning from quality starts relative to league-average save percentage to quality starts relative to opponent shooting percentage. I broke down every game of Roy's playoff career using the latter during that goalie project.

And I agree with the elimination games. Negligible difference between them there (and I'm sure the error is mine!). Found my numbers for leading/tied games:

Roy (Leading/Tied): 134-67; 66.7%
Roy (Trailing): 35-10; 77.7%

Hasek (Leading/Tied): 64-26; 71.1%
Hasek (Trailing): 15-13; 53.6%


So in terms of clutchness, I'd say that in addition to the overtime and general playoff performance arguments, Roy was unusually good at rebounding from bad games (particularly in Colorado) or when his team needed a win.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Argue his longevity and accept the negatives or give up on the longevity and the negatives are left out.
Pick ONE.

In a kind of long roundabout way, I've been suggesting you do the same. But the obvious choice is to take everything, and then simply weigh for yourself whether "more" is "greater" than "better" in the end.

 

[ContrarianGoaltender]

Overall, Patrick Roy was .949 in his 10 bounce-back games after a particularly rough night. So while Roy couldn't exactly expunge 5+ GA games from his hockey card statistics, his team always seized back momentum off the strength of his play in the followup game. I would argue that those ten 5+ GA games (once every 13 or so games) made less of an impact on their series than they do on Roy's per-game numbers.

So your argument is that Roy's strong play after getting shelled won back momentum for his team? Here are the scores of the games after giving up 5+ GA in a loss:

4-0, 4-2, 4-1, 7-0, 6-0, 6-2, 8-2, 4-1, 2-1, 4-3

I'm not sure the rest of the team needed Roy to give them momentum, their offensive performance suggests they could have won nearly all of them with much worse than a .949. In the games where Roy allowed 5+ GA, his team scored 3 or more in 8 out of 10. I'd say the goal distribution suggests that, if anything, Roy cost his team more by his bad games than he gained them by bouncing back strong.

In Patrick Roy's best four-series run (1993), he started out with a .936 when only .861 was expected against the opponent.

I appreciate the effort to adjust for opposing performance, but there are a few issues with team shooting percentage. It includes empty net goals, it is notoriously variable from season to season and it can be skewed by performances against non-playoff teams especially when parity is low. The 1992-93 Nordiques are one of the best examples of why team shooting percentage can sometimes be an imperfect measure.

Quebec Shooting Percentage:
1991-92: 11.7%
1992-93: 13.9%
1993-94: 11.5%

'93 Quebec goals per game against playoff teams: 3.63
'93 Quebec goals per game against non-playoff teams: 5.03

Not only did Quebec almost certainly shoot well above its true talent level in 1992-93, the Nords also majorly padded their stats against the weakest teams in the league. I think the best guess for Quebec's team shooting talent against decent opposition would be in the neighbourhood of 12% rather than 13.9%.

That said, I don't actually have what I think is a good method for adjusting team shooting percentage given these challenges. Playoffs have both better shooters and better goalies and a stronger defensive effort, and it seems like those factors wash out to some extent, although I'd suggest the more teams have to play hard to make the playoffs, the closer regular season and playoff numbers seem to sync up.

Clearly higher, but I don't know if I'd say different level entirely of the save percentage era goalies. If that's what you call a different level, then Roy's in the apartment below directly below him, banging on the ceiling with a broom, and the three floors below Patrick Roy's apartment are probably completely vacant.

Well, I'm arguing that Hasek was in the ballpark of .010 above Roy comparing peak-to-peak, so yes, I'd say that 's a different level. Look at an extended multi-season sample and compare guys .010 apart, and there's usually a pretty solid talent gap. If you have a different estimate of Montreal team effects, then you might claim that they are closer than that. But it looks like most people apparently make zero adjustment for playing in late '80s/early '90s Montreal, and that's a huge advantage for Patrick Roy in these discussions.

When a statistical edge disappears when the games matter more, then the value of that statistical edge comes into serious question.

This is a fair point. But again, I think it comes down to how that statistical edge is calculated and what assumptions you make about team effects. Team effects are usually magnified in the playoffs. And the majority of Roy's playoff outperformance comes from his time in Montreal, when he was most likely to have benefited from his teammates.

You think the difference in regular season peak is enough to overcome Roy's better playoffs and greater reliability. I don't. And surprisingly, neither do the majority of the people who gave Hasek most of his awards.

I'd phrase it more like I think Hasek has a significantly better regular season peak, a better overall career and better per-game team-adjusted playoff performances than Roy. And as for sportswriter opinion, the majority of people who gave Glenn Hall his 7 First Team All-Stars would have rated him below Terry Sawchuk, but that didn't stop both of us from ranking Hall ahead in the top goalies project. People like wins and Cups, doesn't mean they're right.

 

[blogofmike]

This one, I've done:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1702733

To the extent that sample size is an (obvious) issue, my conclusions were that Patrick Roy (post #4) is a good playoff goaltender (duh) but not significantly better in elimination games, and that Dominik Hasek (post #7) may be clutch by this measure, but the sample size is too small to know with any degree of certainty.

I just noticed that Roy's bad performances (losses) coincide with being the road underdog (0-5) and good performances (wins) coincide with being a home favourite (6-2).

 

[Rhiessan71]

So your argument is that Roy's strong play after getting shelled won back momentum for his team? Here are the scores of the games after giving up 5+ GA in a loss:

4-0, 4-2, 4-1, 7-0, 6-0, 6-2, 8-2, 4-1, 2-1, 4-3

I'm not sure the rest of the team needed Roy to give them momentum, their offensive performance suggests they could have won nearly all of them with much worse than a .949. In the games where Roy allowed 5+ GA, his team scored 3 or more in 8 out of 10. I'd say the goal distribution suggests that, if anything, Roy cost his team more by his bad games than he gained them by bouncing back strong.



I appreciate the effort to adjust for opposing performance, but there are a few issues with team shooting percentage. It includes empty net goals, it is notoriously variable from season to season and it can be skewed by performances against non-playoff teams especially when parity is low. The 1992-93 Nordiques are one of the best examples of why team shooting percentage can sometimes be an imperfect measure.

Quebec Shooting Percentage:
1991-92: 11.7%
1992-93: 13.9%
1993-94: 11.5%

'93 Quebec goals per game against playoff teams: 3.63
'93 Quebec goals per game against non-playoff teams: 5.03

Not only did Quebec almost certainly shoot well above its true talent level in 1992-93, the Nords also majorly padded their stats against the weakest teams in the league. I think the best guess for Quebec's team shooting talent against decent opposition would be in the neighbourhood of 12% rather than 13.9%.

That said, I don't actually have what I think is a good method for adjusting team shooting percentage given these challenges. Playoffs have both better shooters and better goalies and a stronger defensive effort, and it seems like those factors wash out to some extent, although I'd suggest the more teams have to play hard to make the playoffs, the closer regular season and playoff numbers seem to sync up.



Well, I'm arguing that Hasek was in the ballpark of .010 above Roy comparing peak-to-peak, so yes, I'd say that 's a different level. Look at an extended multi-season sample and compare guys .010 apart, and there's usually a pretty solid talent gap. If you have a different estimate of Montreal team effects, then you might claim that they are closer than that. But it looks like most people apparently make zero adjustment for playing in late '80s/early '90s Montreal, and that's a huge advantage for Patrick Roy in these discussions.



This is a fair point. But again, I think it comes down to how that statistical edge is calculated and what assumptions you make about team effects. Team effects are usually magnified in the playoffs. And the majority of Roy's playoff outperformance comes from his time in Montreal, when he was most likely to have benefited from his teammates.

I'm seeing a lot of reaching to find excuses how Roy was able to do what he did and I'm not seeing a whole lot of reasons how Hasek wasn't able to do as well.
I'm also still not seeing how almost any of your excuses survive outside of a Roy-Hasek bubble.
For years now, I have watched you attempt to burn down Brodeur as an extreme agenda with exaggerated and cherry picked information up the whazoo.
Now you seem to be switching your attentions to Roy...good luck with that.

I'd phrase it more like I think Hasek has a significantly better regular season peak, a better overall career and better per-game team-adjusted playoff performances than Roy. And as for sportswriter opinion, the majority of people who gave Glenn Hall his 7 First Team All-Stars would have rated him below Terry Sawchuk, but that didn't stop both of us from ranking Hall ahead in the top goalies project. People like wins and Cups, doesn't mean they're right.

When was the last time there was a parade for winning the Presidents Trophy?
Nuff said.

 

[T Low]

Scoring on Roy was definitely a huge part of the Detroit/Colorado rivalry.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Scoring on Roy was definitely a huge part of the Detroit/Colorado rivalry.

So was not scoring on Roy.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

It could be done (1981 playoffs and later) from the game logs on my site, although it would be a bit brute force.

I'm down to 14% on my laptop battery (and nowhere near a power source), but I can pull the same from the underlying data. I'll post it shortly if my battery survives, or later (tomorrow?) otherwise.

These are limited to 1981 to present, and I'm only publishing the list of those with five or more overtime decisions in that timespan (because that appears to be the minimum I can do without splitting this into two or more tables here).

Goaltender | GP | W | L | W%
Giguere Jean-Sebastien|13|12|1|92%
Smith Bill|7|6|1|86%
Niemi Antti|15|12|2|86%
Potvin Felix|20|15|5|75%
Irbe Arturs|12|9|3|75%
Healy Glenn|8|5|2|71%
Anderson Craig|7|5|2|71%
Gosselin Mario|7|5|2|71%
Liut Mike|13|9|4|69%
Roy Patrick|58|40|18|69%
Beaupre Don|9|4|2|67%
Millen Greg|6|4|2|67%
Rask Tuukka|14|9|5|64%
Ward Cam|11|7|4|64%
Fuhr Grant|32|18|11|62%
Lalime Patrick|10|6|4|60%
Ranford Bill|10|6|4|60%
Bannerman Murray|5|3|2|60%
Hedberg Johan|5|3|2|60%
Peeters Pete|5|3|2|60%
Roloson Dwayne|5|3|2|60%
Wregget Ken|5|3|2|60%
Crawford Corey|21|12|9|57%
Fleury Marc-Andre|14|8|6|57%
Smith Mike|7|4|3|57%
Miller Ryan|16|9|7|56%
McLean Kirk|18|10|8|56%
Quick Jonathan|20|11|9|55%
Thomas Tim|13|7|6|54%
Khabibulin Nikolai|16|8|7|53%
Luongo Roberto|17|9|8|53%
Belfour Ed|43|22|20|52%
Hasek Dominik|29|15|14|52%
Richter Mike|15|7|7|50%
Kiprusoff Miikka|12|6|6|50%
Boucher Brian|9|4|4|50%
Bryzgalov Ilya|8|4|4|50%
Holtby Braden|8|4|4|50%
Varlamov Semyon|8|4|4|50%
Joseph Curtis|28|13|14|48%
Vernon Mike|28|13|15|46%
Kolzig Olaf|13|6|7|46%
Barrasso Tom|12|5|6|45%
Hrudey Kelly|20|9|11|45%
Price Carey|10|4|5|44%
Lemelin Rejean|9|4|5|44%
Meloche Gilles|8|3|4|43%
Brodeur Richard|7|3|4|43%
Hextall Ron|18|7|10|41%
Brodeur Martin|40|16|24|40%
Osgood Chris|15|6|9|40%
Dafoe Byron|5|2|3|40%
Fernandez Manny|5|2|3|40%
Rinne Pekka|5|2|3|40%
Theodore Jose|17|6|10|38%
Hiller Jonas|8|3|5|38%
Howard Jimmy|8|3|5|38%
Nabokov Evgeni|19|7|12|37%
Turco Marty|14|5|9|36%
Vanbiesbrouck John|14|4|8|33%
Moog Andy|19|6|13|32%
Casey Jon|13|4|9|31%
Lundqvist Henrik|21|6|15|29%
Cechmanek Roman|7|2|5|29%
Emery Ray|7|2|5|29%
Huet Cristobal|7|2|5|29%
Hanlon Glen|6|1|4|20%
Burke Sean|5|1|4|20%
Salo Tommy|5|1|4|20%

As always, these data are direct from my website, so if you see an error here, please let me know (free documented checking! Huzzah).

I didn't add the direct links to the goaltender's bio pages, because none of you ever click on the links anyhow. Man, I wish people were half as interested in this crap as I am.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Holy Antti Niemi!!

Did that one come out of nowhere for anybody else?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Holy Antti Niemi!!

Did that one come out of nowhere for anybody else?

I actually hand-inspected that one because I assumed that there must be an error.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Holy Antti Niemi!!

Did that one come out of nowhere for anybody else?

Uh... yeah. Got down to Potvin and was like, oh yeah, makes sense. Then it struck me and I zipped back up a spot... Whaaa? I think I remember a big deal being made of it back in the '11 or '12 playoffs, but had no idea we're talking 12-2 now.

 

[quoipourquoi]

I actually hand-inspected that one because I assumed that there must be an error.

I looked further into Niemi, and it's pretty solid stuff: 61 saves on 63 overtime shots (compare to Giguere's 117/118). 11 of the 14 games saw him face fewer than five OT shots, which is probably why his great record has kinda crept up on us.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Goaltender | GP | W | L | W%
Potvin Felix|20|15|5|75%

Attaboy Felix. One of my favs. Always cool as a cucumber.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Attaboy Felix. One of my favs. Always cool as a cucumber.

The only hockey poster to survive the 20-year transition from my garage in the 1990s all the way through to my current apartment is Felix Potvin. He's framed and hanging in the walk-in closet. I've told my wife that when we buy our new house, Potvin comes with us. Non-negotiable.

 

[Hammer Time]

I looked further into Niemi, and it's pretty solid stuff: 61 saves on 63 overtime shots (compare to Giguere's 117/118). 11 of the 14 games saw him face fewer than five OT shots, which is probably why his great record has kinda crept up on us.

And one of those two shots that beat him was the mother of all flukes, Bieksa off the stanchion. (I'm guessing the Flyers in the finals is the other one?)

Actually now that I think about it, the Canucks have been pretty good at busting OT streaks. Alex Burrows is responsible for the sole blemish on Giguere's record, and Greg Adams for one of Potvin's.

 

[Howe pass to Gretzky]

I think it's a kinda hard choice cause we have to think about 4 others greats goalies.

Jacques Plante has the most Vezina trophy with 7, 1 Hart (MVP) 6 Stanley Cup.

Terry Sawchuk with Calder (44 wins his rookie season), 4 Vezina, 4 Stanley cup & 103 shootouts without mask (most part of his career like Plante)

Patrick Roy revolutionaze, or popularize the position with the Butterfly style - like Orr & Gretzky did with defense - offense.

4 Stanley Cup includind 3 Conn Smythe (most of all time) on 6 finals.
3 Vezina on 7 nominations
4 Jennings..
551 career victories on 1029 (he played in 71,8% of the team's game)

Martin Brodeur has pass all the biggest records for a goalie
The Calder
3 Stanley Cup in 5 finals.
4 Vezina trophy on 9 nominations.
5 Jennings
688 victories in 1259 games (he played in 79,9% of the team's game)
124 Shootous (record of all-time)

The last one is:

Dominik Hasek with his "no style", but really making the job.
6 Vezina Trophy on 6 nominations
2 Hart trophy on 5 nominations !
2 Pearson/Lindsay awards.
3 Jennings trophy (lead by himself 6 times)
2 Stanley Cup in 4 Final.
Lead the Czech to Gold medal in Nagano 1998, stopping all Canadian player in shootout

With all theses... really hard to say
but to me Brodeur pass after in the step or Patrick .Roy like Mario Lemieux pass after in the steps of Gretzky.

To me :

Patrick Roy is 1.1
Terry Sawchuk is 1.2
Martin Brodeur is 1.3
Jacques Plante is 4
Dominik Hasek is 5
Glenn Hall is 6
Ken Dryden is 7

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Don't forget that Plante's and Sawchuk's Vezina Trophies were the equivalent to today's Jennings Trophies.