Is Korshkov going to be a bust?

[Mess]

Yegor Korshkov development in the KHL

2015-16 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl KHL ... 41 games 6 goals 6 assists 12 points (at age 19)
2016-17 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl KHL ... 36 games 6 goals 13 assists 19 points (at age 20)
2017-18 Lokomotiv Yaroslavl KHL ... 52 games 8 goals 18 assists 26 points (at age 21)

Hard to see any real promising growth as he develops here that gets one excited about his future based on a slow developing player that was passed over in his 1st 2 draft classes and taken as a overager at 20 in year 3 of his eligibility.

Despite only being drafted a couple drafts ago he will be playing this year as a 22 year, so hopefully we see a significant jump in production to warrant such a high draft pick.

 

[LeafChief]

A poster in the prospect thread mentioned Korshkov is out 12 weeks with a shoulder injury? Any merit too this?

 

[francis246]

'Market inefficiencies' my ****.

I was in Shanghai and stoked we made the right choice picking Matthews. We could have had Debrincat, Kyrou, Hart or Girard, I read the thread and was like 'Yegor Korshkov... Who the **** is that?'

It was a bad pick.

i'm pissed we didn't take Kyrou. How nice would Kyrou or Girard look on our roster right now.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

it wasn’t that bad a pick but i think he will bust based on his leg injury several years ago.

 

[4thline]

i'm pissed we didn't take Kyrou. How nice would Kyrou or Girard look on our roster right now.

Surely you mean Debrincat? Kyrou has yet to show that he's much better than Korshkov was in 2016, and is a long way from playing for Babcock

 

[93LEAFS]

I think it’ll probably go down as a bad pick too, but I don’t remember many Leafs fans wanting Kyrou, Hart or Girard at the time. People mostly wanted DeBrincat (would have been great) or Benson (no better than Korshkov).

Also, we got Grundstrom later in the same round, who’s looking good. Some picks hit, most don’t, missing on Korshkov (which I do think is likely) isn’t a big deal.

There was also a bunch of people who wanted Mascherin.

I personally was hoping for Boris Katchouk at the time. People were also pretty divided, and it has to be remembered that until about a week before the draft we had picks 30 and 31, so people were hoping to get 2 of these potential guys with Korshkov being completely off the radar. So,, we saw a bunch of names suggested.

While its a missed opportunity, no team is perfect drafting in that range. If one of Grundstrom or Korshkov become legit top 9 forwards, we significantly beat the odds of what we were likely to get with those 2 picks.

 

[BertCorbeau]

There was also a bunch of people who wanted Mascherin.

I personally was hoping for Boris Katchouk at the time. People were also pretty divided, and it has to be remembered that until about a week before the draft we had picks 30 and 31, so people were hoping to get 2 of these potential guys with Korshkov being completely off the radar. So,, we saw a bunch of names suggested.

While its a missed opportunity, no team is perfect drafting in that range. If one of Grundstrom or Korshkov become legit top 9 forwards, we significantly beat the odds of what we were likely to get with those 2 picks.

And Grundstrom is tracking quite well to do so.

Korshkov is tough because he plays in the KHL - hard to get a read on him. From what we've read he's been very solid when he's played, but he had that broken leg last year and now apparently a shoulder injury. Those are never helpful for a players' development.

And, really, Korshkov has that big skill powerfoward type game that could be used in the top 9 if he did pan out.

 

[93LEAFS]

And Grundstrom is tracking quite well to do so.

Korshkov is tough because he plays in the KHL - hard to get a read on him. From what we've read he's been very solid when he's played, but he had that broken leg last year and now apparently a shoulder injury. Those are never helpful for a players' development.

And, really, Korshkov has that big skill powerfoward type game that could be used in the top 9 if he did pan out.

Yeah, I am optimistic about Grundstrom ability to be a legit NHLer and an asset at that level. I think he can bring the grit component Babcock likes on each of his top 9 lines with solid scoring ability. I think a lot of people just tend to look at who the Leafs passed on when it comes to the draft, instead of actually being realistic with the odds. Fact is, there is almost always going to be a better guy drafted after your pick in most cases, you have to figure out what a realistic return rate is and judge guys based on that. Now, this isn't the case with clear 1st overall's, but even then, outside of a McDavid/Crosby case do you take the 1st overall or the field of who is going to be the most impactful player?

I came to these conclusions when I started breaking drafts into cohorts (groups of 5) and classifying players by groupings (Superstar, star, top line, top 6, top 9, top pair etc) to see what to expect out of each area of the 1st round and into the 2nd. If 2 of Dermott, Grundstrom and Korshkov, become top 9 forwards or top 4 defenders, we have significantly beat the average return of what you get in the 2nd round. Hell, remember basically our string of picks past 20th overall from 2005 to 2015, pretty much any pick that wasn't Sweden was a disaster.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Yeah, I am optimistic about Grundstrom ability to be a legit NHLer and an asset at that level. I think he can bring the grit component Babcock likes on each of his top 9 lines with solid scoring ability. I think a lot of people just tend to look at who the Leafs passed on when it comes to the draft, instead of actually being realistic with the odds. Fact is, there is almost always going to be a better guy drafted after your pick in most cases, you have to figure out what a realistic return rate is and judge guys based on that. Now, this isn't the case with clear 1st overall's, but even then, outside of a McDavid/Crosby case do you take the 1st overall or the field of who is going to be the most impactful player?

I came to these conclusions when I started breaking drafts into cohorts (groups of 5) and classifying players by groupings (Superstar, star, top line, top 6, top 9, top pair etc) to see what to expect out of each area of the 1st round and into the 2nd. If 2 of Dermott, Grundstrom and Korshkov, become top 9 forwards or top 4 defenders, we have significantly beat the average return of what you get in the 2nd round. Hell, remember basically our string of picks past 20th overall from 2005 to 2015, pretty much any pick that wasn't Sweden was a disaster.

I agree entirely, well said. I specifically agree with the bolded.

Over the last few years I've started to noticed that good drafting teams tend to hit on players in that 30-90 range. Hitting on those ensures at least a good farm system, which can compensate if you miss on that 1st round pick. If you hit on that 1st round pick, that's a top notch draft. Once you get past the 3rd round it's really a crapshoot. Oddly enough the Leafs have been decent at that in the last dozen years.

As it stands since the Leafs rebuilt they look like they've hit with Dermott, are close with Grundstrom, and have Bracco on the cusp of being a legit prospect. That's 3/4 of their 2nd rounders. That's excluding Rasanen and the '18 draft picks just because it's early to tell. Rasanen could very well flop if he underperforms this year (his D+1 season wasn't that great).

Nonetheless that's some good drafting in the second round.

 

[francis246]

Surely you mean Debrincat? Kyrou has yet to show that he's much better than Korshkov was in 2016, and is a long way from playing for Babcock

no, I didn't mean Debrincat. I meant Kyrou, who is a big bodied player who can score. and Kyrou scored 109 points in 59 games in the OHL this past season... after having 51 in 65 games his draft year.. he's improved his point totals each year. so how exactly is it that "he has yet to show he's much better than Korshkov?"

 

[Slyfox]

There's a reason why Hunter didn't sign with another NHL team. His drafting was quite poor excluding the obvious picks.

 

[WTFMAN99]

@93LEAFS made some valid points.

I personally think it's a bummer that it looks like Rasanen and Korshkov may not pan out but on the positive side, Grundstrom seems like a good bet for the top 9. We hit gold in the 6th and 7th rounds with Johnsson and Brown. Dermott is shaping up nice...

I think people might have overrated Hunter just a bit.

 

[Mr Hockey]

@93LEAFS made some valid points.

I personally think it's a bummer that it looks like Rasanen and Korshkov may not pan out but on the positive side, Grundstrom seems like a good bet for the top 9. We hit gold in the 6th and 7th rounds with Johnsson and Brown. Dermott is shaping up nice...

I think people might have overrated Hunter just a bit.

patience bud ...

 

[93LEAFS]

There's a reason why Hunter didn't sign with another NHL team. His drafting was quite poor excluding the obvious picks.

He didn't sign with another NHL team because he didn't want to take on certain jobs. Do you seriously think Arizona thought Lindsey Hofford was more qualified for that role. His drafting was fine. As pointed out, if 2 of Dermott, Bracco, Korshkov, Grundstrom and Rasanen become NHLer's he beat the odds significantly. And, if you think his drafting was bad, I don't even want to think what you think of our replacement from Hunter's track record is like considering we drafted way better between 2015 to 2018 than we ever did under Morrison.

People expect miracle worker like results at the draft, which simply aren't realistic. Plus, you need to hit on the obvious picks, missing on those types of picks is catostrophic. So far, Marner is looking better than Hanifin, who was the Bob consensus at that pick.

Hunter isn't a god, but he fixed what appeared to be a pretty broken staff.

 

[WTFMAN99]

patience bud ...

Totally have the patience but Rasanen made the decision to go back overseas due to home sickness and it doesn't look good. He is being dressed for Jokerit but as near as I can tell he's basically on the bench. He is losing development time this way.

Korshkov's production coupled with injuries are concerning.

 

[AllDay28]

a bust in the 2nd round. thats funny.

 

[4thline]

no, I didn't mean Debrincat. I meant Kyrou, who is a big bodied player who can score. and Kyrou scored 109 points in 59 games in the OHL this past season... after having 51 in 65 games his draft year.. he's improved his point totals each year. so how exactly is it that "he has yet to show he's much better than Korshkov?"

Can't say I've ever seen 6' 180 described as" big bodied" ... He's a high scoring junior player with a lot of bad habits, in our system he'd be getting the Bracco treatment next year, not getting penciled onto the roster.

As to being better, Korshkov went from a U18 year at ~.5 ppg in the MHL to U19 at ppg+ to U20 being at home in the KHL and leading a pedestrian russian forward group to silver at the WJC.

That explosive development hasn't continued quite has hoped (though it hasn't completely stalled) but it doesn't change the fact that on draft day 2016 he was already at a level where we would be happy after 2 years of development from a "draft year" player.

 

[selltrade]

Korshkov out 12 weeks, shoulder injury

 

[Boutette]

On the plus side, the team has grabbed a bunch of centers on AHL contracts which are the equivalent of adding retroactive picks from previous years (several were draft picks from the 3rd-5th round from 2014-15) who are 20-21 now. One or two of them might pull a development arc good enough to make up for Korshkov busting. And we do have, say Pierre Engvall etc. in the system who look like he'll be able to do what many hoped Korshkov could with speed and similar size.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I wanted Sam Girard with that pick at the time and it’s looking like I was right.

 

[member 300185]

Korshkov out 12 weeks, shoulder injury

Wow, that is not good for his development. I think he is done.

 

[member 300185]

I wanted Sam Girard with that pick at the time and it’s looking like I was right.

Me too. I got trashed back then for saying I wanted Girard and when I voiced my displeasure of Korshkov, I thought HF people were going to hunt me down the way they attacked me.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Me too. I got trashed back then for saying I wanted Girard and when I voiced my displeasure of Korshkov, I thought HF people were going to hunt me down the way they attacked me.

You poor thing. Are you OK now?

 

[Faltorvo]

Wow, that is not good for his development. I think he is done.

i think ,i'm just going to forget about this player completely

and if he shows up one day as a useful leaf,wellllll

pleasant surprise.

 

[member 300185]

i think ,i'm just going to forget about this player completely

and if he shows up one day as a useful leaf,wellllll

pleasant surprise.

same