Speculation: Is Draisaitl expendable?

[JBear]

Delete this thread and burn it so we can pretend it was never created. After burning it send into to the sun so its ashes burn then send the sun into a black hole and somehow send that black hole into another black hole.

 

[Jumptheshark]

where there 7 votes from non oiler fans

 

[Tradedri]

Sure I'll trade him, Makar and two or three first round picks might do it.

In short there is no deal out there that could be made for him that would make the Oilers a better team.

Drai is the only one you can get Markar level of D. No one will swap Nurse's contract for #1D. Please trade him to a cup contender.

 

[Jarvi]

Asked this in the rumors thread but got no response and its 2 pages deep now. So i'll try here...

Bit off topic from all the EK stuff, but I heard on Stauffs show a caller referencing some comments made at the ASG from Draisaitl that the caller seemed to think alluded to Drai being unhappy here?

Stauff brushed it off, brought up his injury and all that. But that is how he would react no matter what. Was that fan out to lunch, or was there something I missed from Leon and he may actually be unhappy? If anyone had a link to the comments from I would greatly appreciate it, or even just if you know what was said...

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

This thread is expendable.

Drai is at worst a top 15 forward in the league even when he's having a rough stretch. When he's on he's on a level with McDavid with how dominant he can be. Drai is having a down year overall and is still on pace for his best ever season points-wise and doing so on a bargain $8.5M AAV contract. Oh and he's got chemistry with McDavid, has size, has a mean streak, and is best friends with McDavid.

Anybody considering trading him clearly doesn't understand his value, or has an unrealistic expectation of what could be recouped in a trade. If you want to improve the team, who moves the needle as much on defense who is the right age, reasonable cap hit signed long term, and is a surefire top 5 D in the league going forward? Cale Makar and then a bunch of question marks. Colorado isn't trading Makar. Who else would you risk trading Draisaitl for? Even then, GMs don't trade away their superstars for other superstars because it's too big a risk so it's a moot point. Unless the Oilers are rebuilding and I missed the memo Draisaitl isn't going anywhere, and for good reason. He's a f***ing unicorn.

 

[barry halls]

Oilers fans have hated a lot of good players over the years for not being good enough, from Gagner to Hemsky to Horcoff to Petry to Dubnyk but turning on Draisaitl is insane. If McDavid wasn't here this is the best player the team has had, and only legitimate superstar, since Messier. You do whatever you can to keep this player in an Oilers sweater for his whole career.

 

[Roderek]

I think this might be a little premature, but I do believe the Oilers need to consider trading him before his contract comes up. I think it is highly unlikely that the Oilers can keep BOTH Mcdavid and Draisitle in the cap era. Unless they know that both players are willing to take a significant discount.

Draisitle is already on a discounted contract, so no way he is taking less then Mckinnon. He will likely want in the neighborhood of whatever Matthews signs for next year which I am guessing is going to be 14-16Mil. If Matthews signs a 16 million dollar contract, Draisaitl's camp is going to say I am not 4 mil less then him etc.

Rumored that by the time McDavids contract is up, the max cap hit could be as much as 20Mil. so lets say he takes a discount, he still prob wants to be more then Matthews, So 17(I think closer to 18) + Draisaitl at 15 that is 12 million more then they currently make and think the cap goes up 1mil+8Mil+4Mil they would take up all of that.

I really do not think it is feasible, so keep him as long as you can, but if a deal comes up that you think makes you better, you probably make the trade. Something along the lines of Ottenger and Heiskanen + picks

 

[Broberg Speed]

I think I'll link this thread to calgarypuck to see if we can even out the ratio

 

[grego]

I don't care about a worry of the oilers if mcd and mcdavid get max contract. If it can be done sign them for money and term to retire and oiler.

Then trade or give away players to become cap compliant and sign cheap alternatives.

You do not just give away elite players and rarely is a trade for an elite player giving you much of value.

I would be fine to have the latter years of mcd and drai to look like current pits pens with a total collapse as they retire.

If it means years of them and retiring and oiler it is worth it

 

[The Panther]

No, he's not.

But the existence of this sad thread proves that Oilers' fans don't deserve him.

 

[WaitingForUser]

No, he's not.

But the existence of this sad thread proves that Oilers' fans don't deserve him.

Some oilers fans don’t deserve him. Most are not this dumb lol

 

[Gordy Elbows]

Yes he is expendable….after we win the SC at least 3 times.

 

[Stoneman89]

I think this might be a little premature, but I do believe the Oilers need to consider trading him before his contract comes up. I think it is highly unlikely that the Oilers can keep BOTH Mcdavid and Draisitle in the cap era. Unless they know that both players are willing to take a significant discount.

Draisitle is already on a discounted contract, so no way he is taking less then Mckinnon. He will likely want in the neighborhood of whatever Matthews signs for next year which I am guessing is going to be 14-16Mil. If Matthews signs a 16 million dollar contract, Draisaitl's camp is going to say I am not 4 mil less then him etc.

Rumored that by the time McDavids contract is up, the max cap hit could be as much as 20Mil. so lets say he takes a discount, he still prob wants to be more then Matthews, So 17(I think closer to 18) + Draisaitl at 15 that is 12 million more then they currently make and think the cap goes up 1mil+8Mil+4Mil they would take up all of that.

I really do not think it is feasible, so keep him as long as you can, but if a deal comes up that you think makes you better, you probably make the trade. Something along the lines of Ottenger and Heiskanen + picks

Tsk, tsk....can't even spell the man's name properly.

 

[KCC]

I get the feeling he’s dealing with an injury as the last few months he’s really looked off. Prior to he was old drai.

 

[SwedishFire]

A team so absolutely bereft of forward depth had Foegele and McLeod BOTH playing in topsix again and can barely find 11 forwards a night to dress should be sitting Drai?

Thats your answer?

How long should Drai sit? The nature of the injury is it could take months or years for it to fully heal. Then what?

Why do they ice Kane McDavid, leon on the same line, sounds they are feed up.

Take the top 6 players and split em up on three lines.

Kane McDavid McLeod
Kostin Leon Hyman
Janmark Nuge Yamamoto
Fogele/Ryan Holloway

 

[nexttothemoon]

If the Oilers biggest problem was Draisaitl... they'd have no problem.

 

[Yuke]

I would consider trading him. Depends of course the return. Leon has been a turn over machine, and his play is very read-able. Cross the blur line and button hook, PP, shoots from the same spot and most teams have that figured out. Blind back hand passes, ugly. It seems if he isn't playing with Connor he goes with 1/2 intensity.
Big contract coming up, Bo Horvat and a 2023 1st would gave worked for me.

 

[Soundwave]

I would consider trading him. Depends of course the return. Leon has been a turn over machine, and his play is very read-able. Cross the blur line and button hook, PP, shoots from the same spot and most teams have that figured out. Blind back hand passes, ugly. It seems if he isn't playing with Connor he goes with 1/2 intensity.
Big contract coming up, Bo Horvat and a 2023 1st would gave worked for me.

Glad you’re not the GM.

 

[Yuke]

Glad you’re not the GM.

Possibly, but when you complain we cannot afford more decent players and our 3-4 lines are weak, think of this conversation

 

[Fourier]

Possibly, but when you complain we cannot afford more decent players and our 3-4 lines are weak, think of this conversation

Getting rid of Draisaitl to strengthen the 3rd and 4th line, which by the way are not even weak, seems to make little sense. Pretty much every successful team gets rid of expensive third and fourth liners to keep their best players.

 

[Soundwave]

Possibly, but when you complain we cannot afford more decent players and our 3-4 lines are weak, think of this conversation

And if you liked winning two rounds in the playoffs think of this conversation too.

Draisaitl has the highest PPG of any modern player in the playoffs.

Yes higher than Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, etc etc.

The only player notably higher than Drai is some dude named Wayne Gretzky. Mario Lemieux and Draisaitl are virtually tied.

So think about that for 10 seconds next time.

“Think about the 3rd line tho!!!!” Lol, f*** outta here with that nonsense.

 

[bucks_oil]

I think this might be a little premature, but I do believe the Oilers need to consider trading him before his contract comes up. I think it is highly unlikely that the Oilers can keep BOTH Mcdavid and Draisitle in the cap era. Unless they know that both players are willing to take a significant discount.

Draisitle is already on a discounted contract, so no way he is taking less then Mckinnon. He will likely want in the neighborhood of whatever Matthews signs for next year which I am guessing is going to be 14-16Mil. If Matthews signs a 16 million dollar contract, Draisaitl's camp is going to say I am not 4 mil less then him etc.

Rumored that by the time McDavids contract is up, the max cap hit could be as much as 20Mil. so lets say he takes a discount, he still prob wants to be more then Matthews, So 17(I think closer to 18) + Draisaitl at 15 that is 12 million more then they currently make and think the cap goes up 1mil+8Mil+4Mil they would take up all of that.

I really do not think it is feasible, so keep him as long as you can, but if a deal comes up that you think makes you better, you probably make the trade. Something along the lines of Ottenger and Heiskanen + picks

Unless I'm missing it, you are not considering the timing of those deals, the total cap, or other players in our core under contract.

The max cap hit per player is 20% of the cap. Right now the cap is $82.5M.

Using your numbers, the cap would rise to $95.5M the summer McDavid is due and $91.5M the summer that Draisaitl is due, and $83.5 the summer Matthews is up.

So Matthews signs for max, at $16.7M. The next summer, Draisaitl signs for $15M and then McDavid goes to $18M.

That's a total of $33M on a $95.5M cap.... or 34.6% of the cap. That's a lot... but then consider:

1) McDavid only signed for 16.67% of the cap when he signed, and Draisaitl only signed for 11.3% when he signed. McDavid's deal was using Crosby's first big deal... 17.3%. Crosby's second big deal was 14.5%

If we use Crosby's 14.5% (since that's how these things are negotiated), that means McDavid signs for $13.8M and Draisaitl signs for $13.27M. Now we are looking at only 28.3% of the cap, which is pretty much where they were 2-3 years ago.

2) But even if we assume your numbers, let's look at the core. McDrai sign for a total of $33M. Nurse is still $9.25M, Hyman is still $5.5M, Nuge is $5.125M, and Kane is $5.125M. That totals $58M or 60.7% of the cap. We would have $37.5M left for 16 players on a 22 person roster. It's not ideal, but it's doable.

Right now those same guys are making 56% of the cap, 60.7% doesn't represent a huge increase and the cap would continue to rise. It can be held together.

 

[Roderek]

Unless I'm missing it, you are not considering the timing of those deals, the total cap, or other players in our core under contract.

The max cap hit per player is 20% of the cap. Right now the cap is $82.5M.

Using your numbers, the cap would rise to $95.5M the summer McDavid is due and $91.5M the summer that Draisaitl is due, and $83.5 the summer Matthews is up.

So Matthews signs for max, at $16.7M. The next summer, Draisaitl signs for $15M and then McDavid goes to $18M.

That's a total of $33M on a $95.5M cap.... or 34.6% of the cap. That's a lot... but then consider:

1) McDavid only signed for 16.67% of the cap when he signed, and Draisaitl only signed for 11.3% when he signed. McDavid's deal was using Crosby's first big deal... 17.3%. Crosby's second big deal was 14.5%

If we use Crosby's 14.5% (since that's how these things are negotiated), that means McDavid signs for $13.8M and Draisaitl signs for $13.27M. Now we are looking at only 28.3% of the cap, which is pretty much where they were 2-3 years ago.

2) But even if we assume your numbers, let's look at the core. McDrai sign for a total of $33M. Nurse is still $9.25M, Hyman is still $5.5M, Nuge is $5.125M, and Kane is $5.125M. That totals $58M or 60.7% of the cap. We would have $37.5M left for 16 players on a 22 person roster. It's not ideal, but it's doable.

Right now those same guys are making 56% of the cap, 60.7% doesn't represent a huge increase and the cap would continue to rise. It can be held together.

Kane is actually off the books when McDavids new contract would Kick in, but Campbell is in his last year so pretty much makes that a wash. Currently on the books for the 26/27 season is 24,875,000. still needing 17 players plus 1 goalie, but assuming McDavid and Drai are both signed its 15 + 1 goalie. I also think it is a pretty reasonable assumption that there will be a few more contracts on the books between now and then between 3-8 mil)
Lets assume for now;
1) Bouchard 5 Mil
2) Broberg 5 Mil
3) Holloway 6 Mil
4) McLeod 3 Mil
5) Skinner 5 Mil

That's another 24 mil making it 48,875,000 + 33,000,000 for McDavid and Drai that is 81,875,000 still needing 10 players for the remaining 13.6 Mil. Obviously I have no idea how some of the above players are going to project, or continue to play before signing their next contracts, So my guesses could be off 2-3 Mil either way. Keeping in mind that as the cap goes up they would all want a bigger piece of the pie as well. I think at least one of those contracts if not 2 will be in the 7mil range.

Players can also be moved, but I think it is a reasonable assumption that if the Oilers are trying to win for the next 3 years, they will have at least 5 players around the contracts I assumed signed over that period.

It is doable, but if the GM, whoever that maybe at the time, doesn't believe that McDavid or Drai are going to take a discount to stay, they need to consider moving Drai instead of letting him walk for nothing, or cap strapping the team so they are unable to contend.

My belief is if McDavid hasn't won by the time his contract is up, or at least been to the finals, He is going to question if the organization can build a winning team around him. If he decides they can't I think he walks.
If he decides they can, he then decides how big of a discount he needs to take in order to make it happen. He isn't going to take a discount if he doesn't think it changes management's ability to build a true contender around him.

 

[Yuke]

And if you liked winning two rounds in the playoffs think of this conversation too.

Draisaitl has the highest PPG of any modern player in the playoffs.

Yes higher than Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, etc etc.

The only player notably higher than Drai is some dude named Wayne Gretzky. Mario Lemieux and Draisaitl are virtually tied.

So think about that for 10 seconds next time.

“Think about the 3rd line tho!!!!” Lol, f*** outta here with that nonsense.

So Draisatl scores 5 goals a game but the 3 -4 lines get 6 goals against because they are filled with minimum paid players, whats the point?

 

[Soundwave]

So Draisatl scores 5 goals a game but the 3 -4 lines get 6 goals against because they are filled with minimum paid players, whats the point?

Except that isn't the case this year at all, the bottom 6 is doing fine. That's just a dumb justification for taking pennies on the dollar for one of the best players on the planet, period.

The Oilers don't even have a "minimum paid" bottom 6 and Draisaitl hasn't stopped them from getting good bottom 6ers so I don't even buy this train of logic to begin with.