Carlson was one of the top 5 Norris candidates before the season even started. It's weird how most people itt are saying that he's not good enough at defending, well who are your other favorites? It's always the same names before every season if you look at bookmakers odds, which are a pretty solid indicator: Burns, Karlsson, Letang... not exactly names that are known for their defensive skills.
To win the Norris, you need to have a very stellar +/-. A Burns or a Karlsson needs probably 10 points more than the best less offence-oriented defenseman to actually win it. I'm not sure where Carlson stands there, but I have a hunch he's seen as a bit more defensively responsible doesn't even need a supersick season to win it.
If Carlson wins the points race this year and gets a +30 type +/-, I'll be completely shocked if he doesn't win it.
It's also noteworthy that it helps if you're on a team where you're very clearly the lone star defenceman. For example, it might be tough for someone like Hedman to win it this year, because the TB blueline is just so stacked. Same applies for the Nashville guys, and to Karlsson and Burns -- even if SJS redeem themselves and they both put up near-PPG seasons, neither of them might not win because the votes would split between them if they had identical seasons.
Carlson is very clearly the #1 defenceman in Washington, same as Letang in Pittsburgh, Jones in CBJ, Doughty in LA, etc. I'm not saying those are the favorites, just that it clearly plays in their favor.
To win the Norris you usually need to:
1) Have a better +/- than most other candidates
2) Be in the top10, possibly top5 in defensemen scoring
3) Be the best defenceman of your team by a mile
4) Have your team go to the playoffs.
My money this year is bet on Carlson at 17:1, Hamilton at 47:1, and Letang at 20:1. Hamilton didn't really tick most boxes, but seemed like a good surprise option. Wouldn't have recommended that bet to others, but Carlson at 15:1+ is a value bet because of the lack of competition nowadays.
I think Burns can still be a threat if EK keeps being trash and he puts up 90 points. He came 2nd last year, at some point you just have to get the nod when you consistently outscore others by a mile. Letang I think might get a career award Norris if he's top5 in scoring and no one else really stands out, won't be the first time that happens. Carlson I think is the most complete package, I don't mean as a defenceman but from his "Norris-worthiness attributes"; e.g. on a good team, clear #1 on his team, will likely get a strong +/-, will likely be top5 in points. But I think he suffers a bit from not being a household name like Letang or Hedman. I still think he has a great shot this year if he stays healthy.
Someone like Jones could shock us all too if CBJ defy expectations and he has a PPG season. I could see Josi having a strong showing too.