Prospect Info: In the System IX (Ads and Prospects)

[Soundgarden]

I fully realize how good Ellis and Ekholm are but they are both nearing the age where players typically start to decline. I have no qualms about them for the next 3 years or so but after that things get risky with how they age. I just really don’t like the idea of potentially having 3 highly paid defenseman all underperforming relative to their contract in a few years.

As for Ellis’s value we just saw Schmidt go for a third round pick and while I think Ellis is better and the Schmidt move had extraneous circumstances it does give us some indication of the market which isn’t great.

Vegas' hands were tied because they were over the cap and were desperate to shed money.
Lucky for them they got their shiny new toy in the best defenseman on the market.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I fully realize how good Ellis and Ekholm are but they are both nearing the age where players typically start to decline. I have no qualms about them for the next 3 years or so but after that things get risky with how they age. I just really don’t like the idea of potentially having 3 highly paid defenseman all underperforming relative to their contract in a few years.

As for Ellis’s value we just saw Schmidt go for a third round pick and while I think Ellis is better and the Schmidt move had extraneous circumstances it does give us some indication of the market which isn’t great.

Whereas I don't think Ellis is even as good as Schmidt is. But either way, it still helps to illustrate what can happen. The market is about to be pretty tight on new contracts for the next couple years. Moving them won't be as easy nor likely as profitable as we are used to thinking.

I also have no particular qualms about the next 2-3 years... they're good enough and not-old enough that we'd still get good value out of them On The Ice relative to their salaries at the time.

But it is indeed "Past That" we have to think about. If Ekholm is extended, or take Ellis on his current deal, in the likelihood that they fall short of getting good value relative to their salaries later on... well...

Maybe taking any advantage we can of the current market chill is something that would help us out overall. Imagine you lose Ellis in the Expansion Draft. And then you can sign a D or trade for one like Schmidt by only giving up a 3rd round draft pick, while other teams wrestle with their Cap constraints, just like this year. In effect, you only lose a 3rd round pick in the Expansion Draft. Or nothing if you can turn around and spend that $6.25M on the UFA market (Dougie Hamilton). Or you take a slight downgrade on Ellis, but a small downgrade might not be much to lose in Expansion, all things considered, especially if it also gets you out of the last 2 years of Ellis' contract when he likely won't be as effective. (Barrie, Gustafsson, Montour, Savard, Larsson, McCabe, Martinez... there are several impending-UFA defensemen).

I mean, you have to watch how things evolve, players and market. But I can definitely imagine scenarios where losing a top-4 defenseman in the Expansion Draft wouldn't automatically be so bad.

 

[triggrman]

Again, losing Ellis or Ekholm in the expansion draft would be horrendous asset management. And no Schmidt isn't better, nor is using his salary dump as a good judgment on value.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Vegas' hands were tied because they were over the cap and were desperate to shed money.
Lucky for them they got their shiny new toy in the best defenseman on the market.

Sure they didn't get to play hardball or anything but presumably the third was the best offer they got. That doesn't indicate to me that there would be a great return on Ellis. Ekholm on the other hand is dirt cheap and doesn't come with a long term commitment. I would think that is much more enticing as a trade option.

 

[triggrman]

Sure they didn't get to play hardball or anything but presumably the third was the best offer they got. That doesn't indicate to me that there would be a great return on Ellis. Ekholm on the other hand is dirt cheap and doesn't come with a long term commitment. I would think that is much more enticing as a trade option.

There was very little trade market value this year period. I'd say COVID and the up coming questions have everyone sitting right now.

Prior to this offseason when was the last time a top pairing defenseman was traded.

 

[Predsanddead24]

There was very little trade market value this year period. I'd say COVID and the up coming questions have everyone sitting right now.

Prior to this offseason when was the last time a top pairing defenseman was traded.

Sure but that market is very likely going to extend into next offseason which is when we have to make some decision on keeping Ekholm/Ellis or moving one of them.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Again, losing Ellis or Ekholm in the expansion draft would be horrendous asset management. And no Schmidt isn't better, nor is using his salary dump as a good judgment on value.

I don't know if you've seen Nate Schmidt play much, but he's definitely better than Ellis.

And salary dumps like that are a potential part of the new landscape. Welcome to 2020. It's clearly something that CAN HAPPEN. It just did. Will it again? You can't know today. But 8 or 10 months from now whenever next season ends, it's POSSIBLE that a scenario will arise like this which will easily mitigate the loss of Ellis or Ekholm in the Expansion Draft. And if it does, that's fantastic asset management. Certainly there will be UFA defensemen available to sign, even if you can't find a lucky dump trade like that.

Heck, we would have been very smart to take Nate Schmidt for a 3rd pick rather than let him go to Vancouver. Better than sitting on our empty cap space, anyway. Because then we'd be covered either way. Lose Ellis OR Schmidt in the Expansion Draft, it really wouldn't matter, because we'd be left with the other one. And we would have gotten through the Expansion Draft at just the cost of a 3rd round pick. You can't beat that for asset management.

 

[triggrman]

Sure but that market is very likely going to extend into next offseason which is when we have to make some decision on keeping Ekholm/Ellis or moving one of them.

I'd say you get way more value in season than off season but we'll see.

 

[triggrman]

I don't know if you've seen Nate Schmidt play much, but he's definitely better than Ellis.

And salary dumps like that are a potential part of the new landscape. Welcome to 2020. It's clearly something that CAN HAPPEN. It just did. Will it again? You can't know today. But 8 or 10 months from now whenever next season ends, it's POSSIBLE that a scenario will arise like this which will easily mitigate the loss of Ellis or Ekholm in the Expansion Draft. And if it does, that's fantastic asset management. Certainly there will be UFA defensemen available to sign, even if you can't find a lucky dump trade like that.

Heck, we would have been very smart to take Nate Schmidt for a 3rd pick rather than let him go to Vancouver. Better than sitting on our empty cap space, anyway. Because then we'd be covered either way. Lose Ellis OR Schmidt in the Expansion Draft, it really wouldn't matter, because we'd be left with the other one. And we would have gotten through the Expansion Draft at just the cost of a 3rd round pick. You can't beat that for asset management.

I have and I disagree, outside of skating, that is. Watch to see how his career goes outside of that system.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I'd say you get way more value in season than off season but we'll see.

I agree and if we do decide to move one of them I'd shoot for the trade deadline this year. However, if we're fighting for a playoff spot I just can't see us doing that. The worst case scenario in my mind is waiting until next offseason because then teams can better predict what our expansion list looks like and we lose a lot of leverage.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I have and I disagree, outside of skating, that is. Watch to see how his career goes outside of that system.

Yeah, we'll see. Ellis is a better static PP point player. And that's about it. Schmidt has him beat in every other category that matters for a defenseman... skating, size, puck carrying, defending. And has a better contract to boot.

 

[triggrman]

He has turned it around the last 3 seasons, ironically that’s when he started in this system. And Ellis does more than just static pp points, neither are lock down defenders

 

[Scoresberg]

So on top of these three Russians, we'll probably have Tomasino and Parssinen in the WJC as well. Nice refreshment compared to the last few years where we've rarely seen any Preds prospects there.

 

[King Weber]

 

[King Weber]

Affects Tomasino and Evangelista.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Yes because bodychecking is what makes hockey a Covid risk not the fact they're squeezed together on the bench or in a closed rink that traps air due to being cold.

I guess it is probably better for development that they get to play at all, but feel like you could definitely learn some bad habits without hitting.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Affects Tomasino and Evangelista.

I can't say I really believe that. It's what one lady in the provincial government says. But the OHL has not signed up to that, nor even has the whole government or anything. It grabs headlines and generates a little buzz, ok. But it's far from fait accompli.

More likely the caseloads will drop enough by February that they can scale back some of the restrictions OR the league will just continue to be shut-down entirely.

But if for some reason the Covid pace just proceeds steady-as-she-goes with no major changes in either direction for 3 more months... less likely but also not impossible... the OHL would ultimately go along with something, anything, to make even a little bit of money, probably. They can smile and nod that there won't be any contact. But there will be. You can't really play hockey without it. So the ball goes back in the government court to decide how they will enforce such a decree. I suspect they simply wouldn't enforce it and would just look the other way. If it came to that. But I doubt it will.

Tomasino will be on our expanded taxi squad again, probably, save for jaunts to WJC or whatnot.

 

[Armourboy]

Frankly if that is what they are going to do and you have a kid that is close you might as well just bring him up and keep him with the team. Games without bodychecking wouldn't be anything more than glorified practice anyways.

 

[triggrman]

Affects Tomasino and Evangelista.

Now really no reason to send him back down.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Tolvanen listed in this article of "Prospects doing well in Europe"

Prospect Watch: Finland

 

[Scoresberg]

Tolvanen listed in this article of "Prospects doing well in Europe"

Prospect Watch: Finland

I believe they haven't watched a game Tolvanen has played and have only looked at the stats, which to be honest don't even flatter Tolvanen. Tolvanen has not played well since coming over to Finland. He started off decently (shades of 2017) but his last goal is October 6th. He has scored one point since October 9th. We're talking about a guy who's been a healthy scratch a number of times in the KHL.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I believe they haven't watched a game Tolvanen has played and have only looked at the stats, which to be honest don't even flatter Tolvanen. Tolvanen has not played well since coming over to Finland. He started off decently (shades of 2017) but his last goal is October 6th. He has scored one point since October 9th. We're talking about a guy who's been a healthy scratch a number of times in the KHL.

Has he been a healthy scratch... or nudge-nudge-wink-wink a "healthy scratch"... just like everybody else on the team including their top players... the whole team got Covid, right?

I mean, it still doesn't bode well either way, since he's not playing well over there, regardless of that particular detail.

 

[Scoresberg]

Has he been a healthy scratch... or nudge-nudge-wink-wink a "healthy scratch"... just like everybody else on the team including their top players... the whole team got Covid, right?

I mean, it still doesn't bode well either way, since he's not playing well over there, regardless of that particular detail.

He started in the top-6, got demoted to the 3rd line and has been out of the rotation from time to time.

EDIT: Granted, Jokerit is a strong team but it's not like he got into the coach's doghouse or anything. He got good linemates and enough ice-time to start the year and couldn't hang. In my mind, if he was ready to produce in a top-6 role in the NHL, he would've been able to do it in the KHL as well.

I'm telling you, nobody in Finland thinks he's a legit NHL prospect anymore. People see him more as Teemu Pulkkinen type, a guy who might be a good goal scorer internationally in Europe but just doesn't have what it takes in the NHL. Puljujarvi, Vesalainen, etc. the list goes on. And it's not like Tolvanen has much to give in the bottom-6, either. It's pretty much top-6 or bust.

 

[BigFatCat999]

aw crap, IVY league cancels hockey this year.

 

[PredsV82]

Who is it we have in college that's really good and everyone fretted when he chose to stay for their senior season? Farrance? Wonder what that does to his thought process if BU doesnt end up playing.