i'm usually pretty conservative on trade returns but i think we can get more than that.
Like what?
but i'd have thought so about our 4 previous trades..
I tend towards the conservative on trade returns also, particularly when compared to other proposals by our crew in here. But then again, I think I don't believe I have a propensity to grossly overrate our players and/or prospects either.
I believe the Avs are in a tough position with O'Reilly in terms of a trade. Yes, he has value, but every month that goes by as he gets closer to UFA status, his trade value decreases. And given the he's almost certainly going to test the UFA market as soon as he possibly can, his trade value decreases. And given he's scored but 1 even strength goal in 15 games this season and has generally not played all that well so far this season, his trade value decreases. (I'll be nice and skip any reference to the Selke-caliber defense).
In short, right here and right now, Ryan O'Reilly's trade value has never been lower.
The other thing that makes this tough for Colorado, is that 1st/2nd pairing puck-moving defensemen (which is what the Avs desperately need the most) are probably the most valuable commodity in the NHL right now. Most certainly more so than a scoring wing who plays solid defense. So even leaving names aside for a moment, teams trading for XXX defenseman are going to likely have to give up more than YYY forward. In other words, a 1st pairing wing will *not* get you a 1st pairing defenseman. It just won't happen anymore. Two, three years ago, maybe. Now? I very much doubt it. IMO.
So, the Avs are in a tough position. They clearly don't want to sell low, which is what they'd be doing by moving O'R now, due to his play so far this season. But if they wait until next Summer, any possible trade partner would have one less year of O'R under contract, hence his trade value will be less then as well. And since they really need to trade for the most valuable commodity in hockey, they're almost certainly going to take a "less" return in the first place.
Tough position indeed.