Improving D (targets and cost?)

[Huffer]

Something I'll throw out there. Essentially every teams going to expose one top 4 dman

Based on the expansion rules Las Vegas is going g to select 30 NHL or almost NHL level players (by the rules there's going to be pretty much no good prospects for them).

That means Vegas likely ends up with 9-10 top four dmen.

That's a lot of wasted value.

I think you wait to fix D after the expansion draft because Vegas is going to have chips to burn and need bonifice prospects.

While Vegas isn't going to have anything great, their essentially going to have all 30 players of middle six and 2nd pair quality, meaning they'll have about 6-7 players they'll be looking to trade out.

I like this option as well, and it's something I had previously thrown out there as a possible way to get a goalie (Vegas claims a guy like Reimer and trades him for prospects).

I'm guessing Vegas will be very popular after the expansion draft for this reason, but IMO the Jets have the prospects (and maybe deal a high 1st?) to fill in some needs. I'd be ecstatic if the Jets were able to parlay a pick and a prospect or 2 for a De Haan and Reimer package for example.

 

[Huffer]

I don't believe the Jets need to target an elite dmen. They need to target a good 2nd pairing guy imo and an undervalued depth piece. I think both can be found in FA. The depth guy ala Barberio can be had for peanuts see Nesterov deal if it comes to a trade.

I think we could possibly get a depth guy via FA, but I'm not seeing a guy available to fill in on the 2nd pair available via FA personally.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/defense/ufa

 

[Grind]

I know the rules of the expansion draft quite well. I've also done several mock drafts and I'm not arguing that vegas won't have some decent players. What I am saying that between what's going to happen this year at the TDL, combined with the offseason moves BEFORE the XD that a lot of teams will prep to have the least value exposed.
That's just my opinion though will have to see how the cards fall.

Example of this is the Perrault being available for trade right now rumor despite being just signed to 4 year extension. Why is that a rumor??? Because the Jets would rather get something for him than lose him for nothing!

I understand that. It's just that no one seems to be putting in the work to actually look at all the moving parts on the recieving ends of these deals.


When I went through the list there were probably more teams that needed to acquire players on contracts to meet the minimum exposure rules then there were teams with too many.

If these sorts of moves happen, that player still ends up available, just on a different team. You can shuffle the pieces around all you want but at the end of the day 30 legitimate NHL players are going to Vegas, and that means Vegas comes out with 6-7 legitimate assets to burn, because they aren't gonna lose them all to waivers in September.

 

[Grind]

It's kind of a "quirk" of the expansion draft process.

Vegas will have no chance of acquiring a top 4 forward or top 3 dman from any team, but their going to start off with more bonifice NHL talent (bodies not skill level) then any existinf NHL team could conceivably start an off-season with.

My guess this was done to ensure they had currency to shift out for prospects, or package up for better players depending on which way they go.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I so very doubt that's going to be the case. Vegas may get a couple decent D but any team with a solid top 4 guy (a la the NSH, ANH examples) will either end up protecting those players by doing the 8 skater route, or trading them before the deadline, or after the season but before the expansion draft and expose more depth forwards. The notion that Vegas is going to get a great group of players is crazy to me! D is the most valuable asset in the league right now so teams will do everything possible to get full return on that. Vegas expansion team is going to be like every expansion team prior. A bunch of 3rd and 4th liners, or guys with 1st line playability but with dumb contracts that teams would be happy to get rid of.

This expansion draft is MUCH better for the expansion team than any previous one. It is commensurate with the very high expansion fee. LV management still have to play their cards right but they have the opportunity to become competitive a lot faster than ANY previous expansion team.

You can politely ask him to waive it, and if he doesn't you go the buyout route...there's also that but TSNE just don't seem like the type

Yes, you can ask but the Jets won't, IMO. It is just not their style. If they ask I doubt he agrees. A buyout is even less likely, much less likely. A team that passed multiple golden opportunities to buyout Pavelec is not going to buy out an actually good player.

Until they prove me wrong I think it is wise to simply accept the fact that Enstrom and Buff will be protected, like it or not.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I know the rules of the expansion draft quite well. I've also done several mock drafts and I'm not arguing that vegas won't have some decent players. What I am saying that between what's going to happen this year at the TDL, combined with the offseason moves BEFORE the XD that a lot of teams will prep to have the least value exposed.
That's just my opinion though will have to see how the cards fall.

Example of this is the Perrault being available for trade right now rumor despite being just signed to 4 year extension. Why is that a rumor??? Because the Jets would rather get something for him than lose him for nothing!

I'm sure you are right. In fact I have absolutely no doubt that every team will strive to expose the least possible. But no one is willing to pay much to avoid losing a mid roster player only to lose the player right next to him in line whose value is only slightly less. The moves available are either going to be ineffective or too expensive. Every team is going to be trying to take advantage of every other team's perceived weaknesses.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree, but when you look at the context of the post, it was in response to someone who was asking about exposing Enstrom. I agree that the odds of the Jets asking, and him waiving are exponentially small, but I'm trying to give the person I was responding the most complete answer I can.

Fair enough.

I'm getting tired of seeing that remote possibility bandied about but there may always be a poster who hasn't followed its history.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I like this option as well, and it's something I had previously thrown out there as a possible way to get a goalie (Vegas claims a guy like Reimer and trades him for prospects).

I'm guessing Vegas will be very popular after the expansion draft for this reason, but IMO the Jets have the prospects (and maybe deal a high 1st?) to fill in some needs. I'd be ecstatic if the Jets were able to parlay a pick and a prospect or 2 for a De Haan and Reimer package for example.

I like your thinking.

I think we could possibly get a depth guy via FA, but I'm not seeing a guy available to fill in on the 2nd pair available via FA personally.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/defense/ufa

Brendan Smith is easily a 2nd pair D. A little low scoring but his shot metrics are very good. He would make an ideal partner for Buff.

 

[Huffer]

Brendan Smith is easily a 2nd pair D. A little low scoring but his shot metrics are very good. He would make an ideal partner for Buff.

Possibly. I kinda like Smith as a potential 3rd pair guy (if the price is right). I'm not sure he's a guy I want to bank on being able to play 2nd pair minutes and opponents. I'm not sold on him as a 2nd pair guy "on a cup team" in other words. He'd be a nice option though. Especially if you don't have to lose an asset for him.

 

[10Ducky10]

Alzner is awful. Can we stop talking about him? There's much better players available.

Oh, Alzner is awful and there are better players out there....example?

 

[Grind]

Oh, Alzner is awful and there are better players out there....example?

Please find garrets list posted earlier in this thread.

I'm not going to do it for you.

 

[Whileee]

I think contenders are much more focused on what they need to make the playoffs and have a playoff run than the XD. Some teams have a narrow window (Habs with Price, NYI with Tavares), and others want to go all in (Wash, Pitt, Wild, Ducks). The price for buying at the TDL will depend a lot on how many sellers there are.

 

[gbill2004*]

Chevy will need to draft a D with the Jets first pick in this years draft.

 

[Heldig]

Tried to post the multi quoted post but apparently I dont know what I am doing...

Refering back to Garret's lists:

Some defensemen with the largest difference between their XPM rank and TOI rank
(notes: XPM is only about 77% of WAR and not all. Also, TOI can be low due to missed games from injury rather than low usage)

Martin Marincin
Mark Barberio
Robert Bortuzzo
Adam Pelech
Matt Tennyson
Chris Tanev (one ex: of missed games from injury)
Kevan Miller
Brayden McNabb
Colin Miller
Xavier Oullet
Brendan Smith
Greg Pateryn
Patrik Nemeth
Matt Greene
Brandon Davidson

Not saying these are great options for the Jets needs, but starting list of guys who are better than their ice time.


Other guys with big differences in TOI vs performance:

Brian Campbell
Patrick Wiercioch
Calvin De Haan
Josh Manson
Shayne Gostisbehere
David Schlemko
Markus Nutivaara
Ryan Sproul

 

[CaptainChef]

I highly suggest you read the expansion rules and take a crack at exposing players.

Through contract requirements, honoring of NMCs, and that you need to expose at least x players with x number of games AND under contract, there simply isn't room.

Teams can't take them on because the team on the recieving end wont be able to manage it.

Either way, just do the math.

30 picks. And you can either protect 7 f and 3 D, meaning every team is giving up at least 1 top four dman or 1 bonifice second line player.

23 man roster.

30 picks.

There's going to be 6-7 players to burn from Vegas standpoint

I don't think you're accounting for all the young players who are ineligible

A lot of team have young players in their top 6 forward or top 4 D that they will not need to protect. Winnipeg, for instance has Ehlers, Laine & Morrissey in that group that do not need to be protected.

There are quite a few teams that have basically nobody of significance to expose, and some even have room to take on another forward or defenseman before they would have to expose anyone of significance. LV is not going to come out of this with very many quality players.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think you're accounting for all the young players who are ineligible

A lot of team have young players in their top 6 forward or top 4 D that they will not need to protect. Winnipeg, for instance has Ehlers, Laine & Morrissey in that group that do not need to be protected.

There are quite a few teams that have basically nobody of significance to expose, and some even have room to take on another forward or defenseman before they would have to expose anyone of significance. LV is not going to come out of this with very many quality players.

Agreed. And to add on, there will be last minute maneuvering so that the existing teams minimize the value of players exposed. LV will end with some decent players but also having to pick up a handful or so of players that are of little interest to other teams.

 

[lanky]

Chevy will need to draft a D with the Jets first pick in this years draft.

Nope.

He will need to draft the guy he thinks will be the best NHL player.

 

[Guffman]

I don't think you have to add the 'unless'. Accept that he has to be protected. The chances of BOTH the Jets asking and him agreeing to waive his NMC are incredibly small, IMO. Minute.

I think Leddy costs Scheifele. So forget it.

I don't think asking Enstrom to waive his NMC for XD purposes is a minute possibility. He's 32 with only 1 year left on a contract that pays him $5,750,000 next year. Is that really a big risk of losing him to LV? Would Enstrom definitely reject a request by the Jets to do this?

I think this is quite possibly the route the Jets will try to take for the XD - maybe offering Toby a sweetener via contract extension if he is unpicked by LV.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I don't think asking Enstrom to waive his NMC for XD purposes is a minute possibility. He's 32 with only 1 year left on a contract that pays him $5,750,000 next year. Is that really a big risk of losing him to LV? Would Enstrom definitely reject a request by the Jets to do this?

I think this is quite possibly the route the Jets will try to take for the XD - maybe offering Toby a sweetener via contract extension if he is unpicked by LV.

They can't offer him a sweetener like that: they won't be able to officially negotiate anything regarding an extension until after July 1st, and the Expansion Draft happens on June 20th. There's little to no motivation for Enstrom to waive his NMC, unless he really wants to go to Vegas.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

It would be highly unlikely that Vegas would select Enstrom in ED if he were to left exposed ( providing he waived his NMC). His 5.75 mill contract is a huge negative value for Vegas. He is currently playing at a level consistent with a 3- 3.5 mill player. HIS TRADE VALUE AT THE 2018 trade deadline b4 he becomes a UFA would be a 2nd round pick at best if Vegas retains salary.

I predict that Enstrom waives and we protect 7/3/1 and we lose Copp or Dano to Vegas.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Possibly. I kinda like Smith as a potential 3rd pair guy (if the price is right). I'm not sure he's a guy I want to bank on being able to play 2nd pair minutes and opponents. I'm not sold on him as a 2nd pair guy "on a cup team" in other words. He'd be a nice option though. Especially if you don't have to lose an asset for him.

Agree. But he is up to 2nd pair minimum level.

Morrissey - Trouba
Smith - Buff
Enstrom - Myers

It is the RD that determine which is 1st, 2nd, 3rd pairing. Actually that is a 1st pair and two 2nds. Ideally we would replace Enstrom and Myers with cheaper options before too long.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think asking Enstrom to waive his NMC for XD purposes is a minute possibility. He's 32 with only 1 year left on a contract that pays him $5,750,000 next year. Is that really a big risk of losing him to LV? Would Enstrom definitely reject a request by the Jets to do this?

I think this is quite possibly the route the Jets will try to take for the XD - maybe offering Toby a sweetener via contract extension if he is unpicked by LV.

All the rational arguments in the world have exactly 0 weight. The team that sent Pav and his 4.75 mil contract to the AHL rather than buying him out, won't ask. In the very remote possibility that they ask, does he agree? Hard to say. He doesn't strike me as a guy who would get excited about the opportunity to play in Sin City, so I'm going to say no. 100% guess though. If it is 50/50 then the total odds are the remote chance they ask, cut in half.

You can continue to believe in this scenario if you wish. I'll remain skeptical. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Peggy]

Can we move buff?
Legit he's gonna be the biggest issue in a year or two

 

[zsam]

Can we move buff?
Legit he's gonna be the biggest issue in a year or two

Not till the end of next season (2017-18). Then, he can be traded to 17 teams as he needs to provide a list of 14 no-go teams.

 

[mondo3]

It's very possible that a new coach could get us back "good Buff"