I'm inclined to agree with you, but you have to admit that there are quite a few assumptions in the above statement.
The Oilers did compile quite a few draft picks actually. They just did not have tremendous success. And I disagree with the notion that the Sabres have been good at drafting. I would even go so far as to make the argument that the reason the Sabres weren't able to survive losing Drury/Briere/Campbell is that the best player that they took between 2005-2007 was probably Mike Weber. Those three years stand out to me. If you were to roll 2004 into that, Drew Stafford is the only player that stands out. Maybe Sekera (who they should not have traded).
The Oilers never made the trades that the sabres did. They held on to Horcoff and Hemsky when they should have traded them. If you assume the rebuild truly started in 2009, they never stockpiled the picks Buffalo had.
The Isles had bad developing and a cheep owner. The Panthers too.
That period was a sour patch in sabres drafting. IIRC, they had to make cuts and they decided to go to video scouting over live scouts. That completely ****ed them over. Generally though, they have been good at drafting. Considering that Pommers,Vanek,Miller,Stafford,etc.. were all sabres picks. Add that wherever Murray has been that team have been good at drafting. Like ottawa and Anaheim especially.
Now, you can also make the argument that Golisano gutted the scouting department which directly caused those bad drafts. Certainly in contrast, from 98-2003, the Sabres drafted Ales Kotalik, Dmitry Kalinin, Ryan Miller, Paul Gaustad, Jason Pominvile, Derek Roy, Dan Paille, Clark MacArthur, Thomas Vanek and Keith Ballard (who became Steve Reinprecht, who became Chris Drury).
Yeah, that's what I was thinking.
The next few drafts once looked promising, but 2008-2011 are turning out pretty bad too. Myers and Ennis were good picks, but 2008 was so loaded with talent at the top, it was pretty hard to miss. Kassian and Foligno look like good picks (McNabb may never be good), and Pysyk looks good. Their late (3-7) picks in those drafts have mostly sucked. And 2011 was a ridiculously deep year. It's abominable that the Sabres did so poorly (seemingly) in it.
I'd say it's too early. Ennis and Myers were good picks. Kassian was a good pick too, he just got traded. Foligno is a good pick for where he was drafted. So was McNabb. Armia and Pysyk are promising. It was a good period I'd say.
Now, from 2012 on, it really does look like they've done fairly well. But it's way too early to cash checks. And if they did do well, we won't know for (on average) five years after the draft. So I think the Sabres will begin to reap the rewords of good/voluminous drafting in 2017. Which isn't that far out of the Islanders timeline (assuming this year so far isn't a mirage), and gives the Oilers another year (They first began stockpiling picks and drafting very high in 2010) before we call this rebuild a bust (their last one obviously was, though Kevin Lowe basically decided, 'hey we're close,' and started hemorrhaging draft picks and prospects for two years right in the middle of it).
Agreed.
As to the Panthers, I don't really know what's going on there except that they obviously decided to change gears with Dale Tallon came on board after Jacques Martin drafted/traded them into oblivion. They still could pull it together, and they are probably in better shape than the Oilers are right now.
The Panthers can't develop talent. Huberdeau is looking bad, Gudbranson too. it's way too early for Barkov and Ekblad but that team is not good at developping. Remember how highly touted Markstrom was?
5 years. Hell, Chicago's first top 5 pick in their rebuild (Cam Barker) was 2004. They didn't make the playoffs until 08-09.
I don' think looking at the first top pick is the way to look at it. I'd say the best way to look at it is when the front office announced the suffering. So the Pominville deal.
2013-Ristolainen
2014-Reinhart
2015-...
Three years of high picks
1 transitional year
we should be in contention for the playoffs after that.
Look at LA. They got hickey,Doughty and Schenn. They made the post season the year after and for 2 years they were a bottom playoff seed. Then in 2012 they won the cup and the rest is history. So if we were to follow that timeline, the sabres would have Risto,Reinhart, top 5 pick in 2015, and then they would make trades to try and push into the playoffs. 2-3 years of playoff appearances and then the prospects start taking over and boom. Contenders .