Value of: If traded, predict where they go and for what -- JVR, Bozak, Komarov

[Brock Radunske]

Komorov stays. Case closed.

JVR to Florida for McCann +2nd

Or

JVR to Carolina for Bean + 2nd or McKeown + 1st




Bozak to anywhere for 2 2nds
Although I'd have no problem re-signing Bozak to a hometown discount contract if he would. He brings so much to the table and is a really great glue guy.

That McCann trade is a good way for Lou to get fired. The McKeown one isn't much better

 

[Brock Radunske]

Right. I'm in for the rude awakening. Not Leaf fans who believe 31-year-old UFA Bozak will nab them a prized young NHL-ready RHD that perfectly fills a hole for them moving forward.

I didn't say he'd get him.
In fact I said it would be great if Bozak + could get him but it won't.

Wanna talk about trying to get a 2C for a 3rd or garbage prospect?

 

[Saints11]

I honestly believe Bozak goes to the Rangers for a package including Holden. If not, I can see Bozak/JVR as being there for the losers in the attempt to land Duchene.

 

[Liferleafer]

I honestly believe Bozak goes to the Rangers for a package including Holden. If not, I can see Bozak/JVR as being there for the losers in the attempt to land Duchene.

Lol...again with Holden. Leafs are not trading a 50+ point center for a player they have absolutely no need for.

 

[Brock Radunske]

I honestly believe Bozak goes to the Rangers for a package including Holden. If not, I can see Bozak/JVR as being there for the losers in the attempt to land Duchene.

The Leafs 2nd and 3rd pairing D-lines are actually very good. It's top pairing that needs help. And I know Bozak won't come close to getting that piece but I'm just outlining how the Leafs have zero need for players like Holden.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Lol...again with Holden. Leafs are not trading a 50+ point center for a player they have absolutely no need for.

Holden's better than half our active D right now. It's a huge stretch to say we don't have a need for him. If anything, that statement is only true in the best possible case scenario of Rosen, Borgman, Hainsey, and Dermott all succeeding.

 

[Sypher04]

2017 was a really weak draft class. A 2nd in 2017 likely equals a 3rd in 2015, 2016, or 2018. A comparable to the Swedish player the Flames drafted in round 4 in 2016 was projected to go in the 2nd or 3rd in 2017.

There is no way to quantify that. There is nothing to say a 2nd wouldn't have been the going rate for Boyle regardless. Roman Polak got two 2nd round picks when he was sent to the Sharks the previous year, when the draft was not considered weak.

 

[dubplatepressure]

There is no way to quantify that. There is nothing to say a 2nd wouldn't have been the going rate for Boyle regardless. Roman Polak got two 2nd round picks when he was sent to the Sharks the previous year, when the draft was not considered weak.

They also got Nick Spaling, so not really.

 

[Sypher04]

I honestly believe Bozak goes to the Rangers for a package including Holden. If not, I can see Bozak/JVR as being there for the losers in the attempt to land Duchene.

Trading Bozak for Holden makes no sense for the Leafs.

 

[Sypher04]

They also got Nick Spaling, so not really.

Okay, so Polak was traded for like 1 and a half 2nd round picks. Spaling had little to no value.

 

[Sypher04]

People need to stop bringing up the fact that JVR and Bozak are 1 year away from UFA like it's some massive detriment to getting value for either player. We see lots of players moved with the same or less term for high values. If players being upcoming UFAs was such a huge negative, the trade deadline would be nothing close to what it is.

I'm not suggesting that the fact they're down to one year is a good thing, or that they didn't have higher value a couple years ago (with more cheap years left, at least for JVR. I think Bozak's value is higher today than before tbh), but facts are, neither player is old, both have good contracts for the year, and they should still get good returns if they're made available.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Okay, so Polak was traded for like 1 and a half 2nd round picks. Spaling had little to no value.

well he had twice as many regular season points for San Jose as Boyle did for us after the TDL... so again, yah not a ton of value but not none. Besides many regard that trade as being quite bad. So again, not much of a benchmark.

 

[Sypher04]

well he had twice as many regular season points for San Jose as Boyle did for us after the TDL... so again, yah not a ton of value but not none. Besides many regard that trade as being quite bad. So again, not much of a benchmark.

My only real point was saying Boyle wouldn't get a 2nd in another year is purely conjecture. There is no proof that the Leafs would not have been prepared to do that deal regardless. Also, there's no real consensus as to how deep strength or weakness of a draft class runs. It's not like an entire draft class from top to bottom is either strong, or weak. Maybe the top 30 picks of this draft is weaker than average, but after that, it's strong or just average for a couple rounds again. Not saying that specifically was the case. I'm just not sure how you quantify that.

 

[dubplatepressure]

My only real point was saying Boyle wouldn't get a 2nd in another year is purely conjecture. There is no proof that the Leafs would not have been prepared to do that deal regardless. Also, there's no real consensus as to how deep strength or weakness of a draft class runs. It's not like an entire draft class from top to bottom is either strong, or weak. Maybe the top 30 picks of this draft is weaker than average, but after that, it's strong or just average for a couple rounds again. Not saying that specifically was the case. I'm just not sure how you quantify that.

I generally agree. Though it would actually be quite a simple exercise to plot out draft results by year, round, slot, and outcome using games played and total points as success/strength indicators. Easy in the sense that the math is simple, but it would take more time than I'm willing to spend putting it together.

 

[pld459666]

It is obvious that something has got to give with the Leafs line up at forward. The most likely candidates to be moved are the 3 soon to be UFA's at seasons end: JVR, Bozak and Komarov.

Obviously it is not a sure thing any or all of them are moved, but if so, where do you think they go, and for what?

My crack at it is...

JVR

Tor
NYI 2018 1st rd Pick
Prospect

NYI
JVR

or

Tor
Fabbro

NASH
JVR


Bozak

Tor
NYR 2018 1st rd Pick
Nick Holden

NYR
Bozak
SJS 2018 3rd rd Pick


Komarov

Tor
Demers

FLA
Komarov
TOR 2018 2nd rd Pick

If I'm the Rangers, I'm not moving a 1st for Bozak.

Would love to add him, but if that's the going rate, I'll gladly pass

 

[dubplatepressure]

If I'm the Rangers, I'm not moving a 1st for Bozak.

Would love to add him, but if that's the going rate, I'll gladly pass

Honest question here - are there other 50+ pt centers with +55% FOP and no term left you're looking at? What are their rumoured prices?

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Since the Leafs are kinda in a "win" situation, it absolutely silly to think they would want to trade Bozak and JVR for prospects or picks. Maybe some immediate help, especially on defence, but it is absurd to think think to trade a 29 goal scorer LW and 55 point centre....just because.

And the just because they are future UFAs next summer has absolutely no validity. Leafs proved last TDL by acquiring Boyle an upcoming UFA and not trading Hunwick and Polak, upcoming UFAs, that the Leafs think, a playoff run is important for their young core.

Only in LeafLand do people think that trading upcoming UFAs is so important.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Since the Leafs are kinda in a "win" situation, it absolutely silly to think they would want to trade Bozak and JVR for prospects or picks. Maybe some immediate help, especially on defence, but it is absurd to think think to trade a 29 goal scorer LW and 55 point centre....just because.

And the just because they are future UFAs next summer has absolutely no validity. Leafs proved last TDL by acquiring Boyle an upcoming UFA and not trading Hunwick and Polak, upcoming UFAs, that the Leafs think, a playoff run is important for their young core.

Only in LeafLand do people think that trading upcoming UFAs is so important.

just because? There are clearly more reasons to trade JVR and Bozak, and they've all been named in this thread. Off the top of my head, moving them (or at least JVR) makes room for Leivo, Rychel and Kapanen to play more prominent roles, something we want. Moving them assures us a return on what will be departing assets, and returns are things we need to remain competitive and continue developing high end players, and/or have available currency for when the players we need become available. Those two reasons are awfully more important than 'just because'.

 

[Sypher04]

Since the Leafs are kinda in a "win" situation, it absolutely silly to think they would want to trade Bozak and JVR for prospects or picks. Maybe some immediate help, especially on defence, but it is absurd to think think to trade a 29 goal scorer LW and 55 point centre....just because.

And the just because they are future UFAs next summer has absolutely no validity. Leafs proved last TDL by acquiring Boyle an upcoming UFA and not trading Hunwick and Polak, upcoming UFAs, that the Leafs think, a playoff run is important for their young core.

Only in LeafLand do people think that trading upcoming UFAs is so important.

I part way agree with you on keeping them, but that last statement is just blatantly false. This is a mindset that has become common in more fanbases than not. Nobody likes losing players for nothing at end of their term.

That said, imo you can either look at it that way, or consider them in a sense, trade deadline pickups that cost you nothing.

Personally, I advocate trading JVR a) because he has the most value to return a D and b) because we cannot afford to lose a Center as much imo. I think the cost of JVR to upgrade the backend is worthwhile, but you don't want to cut both guys out of our forward group.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Sypher04

What so bad about "players walking away for nothing". It happens all the time. Teams are trying to win so they each year there are dozens of UFAs at the end of the year.

Now I'll agree that a team that is "out of playoff contention" should be motivated to trade upcoming UFAs for prospects, but not a team that needs their upcoming UFAs for a playoff run. Again it seems to be that the Leafs are about the only team in these posts that "have to" their upcoming UFAas.

So if the Leafs keep Komarov, Bozak and JVR till next June. Well that's about 12m to spend on other players (some UFAs) the following season. In the meantime you have add the value of these players on your team.

Again, this paranoia about players UFAs walk seems to be LeafLand fascination.


dubplatepressure: I will agree with you if the Leafs could move JVR....for true help now (especially on defence) might be good trade. Who ever takes JVR place will not be as good, but that is the nature of young replacements. But I'll disagree with the Leafs have to keep trading good vets for upcoming prospects, because that isn't a winning solution. What continuing getting close to the playoffs, but because you aren't going win the Cup that year, you trade these vets?

 

[Sypher04]

What so bad about "players walking away for nothing". It happens all the time. Teams are trying to win so they each year there are dozens of UFAs at the end of the year.

Now I'll agree that a team that is "out of playoff contention" should be motivated to trade upcoming UFAs for prospects, but not a team that needs their upcoming UFAs for a playoff run. Again it seems to be that the Leafs are about the only team in these posts that "have to" their upcoming UFAas.

So if the Leafs keep Komarov, Bozak and JVR till next June. Well that's about 12m to spend on other players (some UFAs) the following season. In the meantime you have add the value of these players on your team.

Again, this paranoia about players UFAs walk seems to be LeafLand fascination.


dubplatepressure: I will agree with you if the Leafs could move JVR....for true help now (especially on defence) might be good trade. Who ever takes JVR place will not be as good, but that is the nature of young replacements. But I'll disagree with the Leafs have to keep trading good vets for upcoming prospects, because that isn't a winning solution. What continuing getting close to the playoffs, but because you aren't going win the Cup that year, you trade these vets?

There is nothing Leafs fanbase specific about this. And I didn't say there was any problem with just letting people walk. In fact, I thought was fairly clear that the only guy I'd advocate moving was JVR, and that'd be for a D upgrade.

Now, if by some chance we take a step back this year and are realistically too far out of it by the trade deadline, then that thought process goes out the window. But, I do not expect that to be a concern.

 

[Pongs21]

I can see JVR in ANA or NSH at the deadline for a 1st and a prospect. Depending on Bozak's year, could maybe garner a 1st, more likely 2 2nd's or 2nd + prospect (Also depends on the C's available at the deadline - could make the price go either way).
Have a feeling Komarov is extended.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I can see JVR in ANA or NSH at the deadline for a 1st and a prospect. Depending on Bozak's year, could maybe garner a 1st, more likely 2 2nd's or 2nd + prospect (Also depends on the C's available at the deadline - could make the price go either way).
Have a feeling Komarov is extended.

So if the Leafs are in playoff contention, do they make these JVR and Bozak deals for "futures" which might lead to the Leafs to a non playoff spot? Not a great message to send to your team and not a great way to "grow" the young team with playoff run, playoff experience.
Do the 25 teams that don't have Cup hopes trade the 75 upcoming UFAs to the 8 teams that are Cup contenders?

 

[Pongs21]

So if the Leafs are in playoff contention, do they make these JVR and Bozak deals for "futures" which might lead to the Leafs to a non playoff spot? Not a great message to send to your team and not a great way to "grow" the young team with playoff run, playoff experience.
Do the 25 teams that don't have Cup hopes trade the 75 upcoming UFAs to the 8 teams that are Cup contenders?

I didn't say it was logical or the best option for the leafs. is the thread title not "If traded, predict where they go and for what"?

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I didn't say it was logical or the best option for the leafs. is the thread title not "If traded, predict where they go and for what"?

Your opening statement was "I can see" And then you mentioned the trades. It seemed to me you were advocating the trading JVR and Bozak