If the Plan Isn't to Rebuild

[ACC1224]

Stamkos is a pipe dream.
This team needs to stop pipe dreaming.
Need to stop dreaming that a Stamkos or Getzlaf or Weber are on there way to magically make the core indestructable.

We need to do the right thing and start from the beginning. Drafting and developing our own players high in the 1st round to become a 1C and 1D. Drafting more than 5 times in 7 rounds. Adding as many players as we can through later rounds to give us the best chance at organizational depth. Making solid trades as the above start rounding out.
Doing the right thing is the hardest thing to do.

There's no reason to believe the Team is doing this.

 

[mashedpotato]

Stamkos is a pipe dream.
This team needs to stop pipe dreaming.
Need to stop dreaming that a Stamkos or Getzlaf or Weber are on there way to magically make the core indestructable.

We need to do the right thing and start from the beginning. Drafting and developing our own players high in the 1st round to become a 1C and 1D. Drafting more than 5 times in 7 rounds. Adding as many players as we can through later rounds to give us the best chance at organizational depth. Making solid trades as the above start rounding out.
Doing the right thing is the hardest thing to do.

There's nothing wrong with dreaming for the acquisition of Stamkos.

Drafting and developing (with successful results) is also a pipe dream; we've been drafting and developing with not a lot of successful results. I can't even remember our last true successful draft. Steen maybe?

 

[silentbob37*]

Stamkos example (#'s estimated)

If you stay with your own team you can get a 8 year deal and if you leave you can only get 7 year max as a UFA.

8 years @ $10 mil = $80 mil to stay in TB
verses
7 years @ $10 mil = $70 mil to move as a UFA

To leave you are leaving $10 mil on the table due to leaving verses staying due to CBA contract limits while getting max contract value.

That is assuming the Lightning can/will match what he could get on the open market.

 

[silentbob37*]

There's nothing wrong with dreaming for the acquisition of Stamkos.

Drafting and developing (with successful results) is also a pipe dream; we've been drafting and developing with not a lot of successful results. I can't even remember our last true successful draft. Steen maybe?

THey haven't really committed to drafting and development though./

They make picks every year, but thats never been their method to build a team

 

[Mess]

Stamkos is a pipe dream.
This team needs to stop pipe dreaming.
Need to stop dreaming that a Stamkos or Getzlaf or Weber are on there way to magically make the core indestructable.

We need to do the right thing and start from the beginning. Drafting and developing our own players high in the 1st round to become a 1C and 1D. Drafting more than 5 times in 7 rounds. Adding as many players as we can through later rounds to give us the best chance at organizational depth. Making solid trades as the above start rounding out.
Doing the right thing is the hardest thing to do.

I personally believe the odds of Stamkos to Toronto is .1% and 99.9 % he is not. I don't spend any time fantasizing on such things.

I'm a draft junkie and firmly believe in drafting and developing.

 

[Trapper]

There's no reason to believe the Team is doing this.

I hope not.
I hope they have some type of plan but when I hear Nonis say this is a good team year after year with the same issues and results, I really wonder.

 

[Daisy Jane]

There's nothing wrong with dreaming for the acquisition of Stamkos.

Drafting and developing (with successful results) is also a pipe dream; we've been drafting and developing with not a lot of successful results. I can't even remember our last true successful draft. Steen maybe?

 

[Trapper]

I personally believe the odds of Stamkos to Toronto is .1% and 99.9 % he is not. I don't spend any time fantasizing on such things.

I'm a draft junkie and firmly believe in drafting and developing.

I believe in this too.
It's not going to be easy. There are some hard times ahead and hard decisions to make.
Building through the draft isn't year 1 no. 1 center, year 2 no. 1 D etc.
It make take a couple of kicks at the can to hit the right draft.
The rewards are worth it. The reward of building a legitimate core, building a strong minor league pipeline and maintaining this pipeline so you are a team that makes the playoffs 23+ years in a row.

 

[ACC1224]

I hope not.
I hope they have some type of plan but when I hear Nonis say this is a good team year after year with the same issues and results, I really wonder.

Gauranteed they have a plan, whether it's the right one is still TBD.

They aren't obligated to share their true thoughts with the media. I wouldn't take statements like that at face value.

 

[ConnorTO]

lol at the people who are talking about stamkos

 

[Gary Nylund]

I believe in this too.
It's not going to be easy. There are some hard times ahead and hard decisions to make.
Building through the draft isn't year 1 no. 1 center, year 2 no. 1 D etc.
It make take a couple of kicks at the can to hit the right draft.
The rewards are worth it. The reward of building a legitimate core, building a strong minor league pipeline and maintaining this pipeline so you are a team that makes the playoffs 23+ years in a row.

Yep. I think a lot of people don't get this but it can take a while. I don't like the tanking method (especially after the changes to the lottery) but I would like to stop trading picks and stop letting assets walk for nothing. That would be a huge first stop and a big change from the way we've been doing things.

Gauranteed they have a plan, whether it's the right one is still TBD.

They aren't obligated to share their true thoughts with the media. I wouldn't take statements like that at face value.

Question is, is it a typical Leafs short-term plan tryig to get us in the playoffs this year (or next year)? Or are they finally starting to think long-term?

 

[ACC1224]

Question is, is it a typical Leafs short-term plan tryig to get us in the playoffs this year (or next year)? Or are they finally starting to think long-term?

That's where the TBD part comes in.

 

[Gary Nylund]

That's where the TBD part comes in.

Yeah I made my point poorly I guess. What I was trying to say is that if they are thinking short-term (as usual) then it doesn't matter what their plan is - it's a bad plan by definition. If however, they are thinking long-term then there is hope.

Shot-term plan = bad plan
Long-term plan = probably good plan (what else can it be but patiently build through the draft)

 

[Stephen]

Leafs need to unbuild: diffuse the negativity surrounding the current core by dismantling it, accumulate as many picks as possible to do the proper talent search for core pieces for a 2018 and beyond team so the young pieces we currently have won't be idling in the primes while management fails to provide them with help, and clear as much cap room as possible.

Yes, Stamkos is a pipedream but they still need to be prepared to pounce on that instead of realizing they're capped out and can't move on a big fish. Can't have a situation where the Leafs are kicking themselves with what ifs for the next 2 decades just because their cap was all screwed up.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Leafs need to unbuild: diffuse the negativity surrounding the current core by dismantling it, accumulate as many picks as possible to do the proper talent search for core pieces for a 2018 and beyond team so the young pieces we currently have won't be idling in the primes while management fails to provide them with help, and clear as much cap room as possible.

Yes, Stamkos is a pipedream but they still need to be prepared to pounce on that instead of realizing they're capped out and can't move on a big fish. Can't have a situation where the Leafs are kicking themselves with what ifs for the next 2 decades just because their cap was all screwed up.

I agree, I was arguing this when we signed Clarkson. So many people were trying to tell me that what's the harm we have money, may as well spend it. Going forward won't be a problem either, the cap will go up. Sigh.

Being a few million under the cap gives flexibility to make the right trade when the opportunity presents itself.

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah I made my point poorly I guess. What I was trying to say is that if they are thinking short-term (as usual) then it doesn't matter what their plan is - it's a bad plan by definition. If however, they are thinking long-term then there is hope.

Shot-term plan = bad plan
Long-term plan = probably good plan (what else can it be but patiently build through the draft)

I would assume it's a combination of both.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

I really want to believe in Stamkos and Tavares and Babcock coming to T.O. I just don't see it happening, just like i do not see Tippet getting canned from Arizona (newest rumour I'm starting to hear is that they are trying to pin their downtrend on him and not the lack of roster talent they have).

I think ROR is a possibility. MacKinnon will likely go for a $5-6m contract. They have to make moves to sure things up on the defense. He seems to be the likely trading piece. I think if they do end up making a swap Gards for ROR then a full rebuild isn't needed. However Idk what other potential 1C's are on the market other than him and possibly E.Stall.

Lupul probably can be traded for some picks but I think 10% salary gets retained, maybe more, because of his injury proneness. Bozak can probably be sent out to maybe EDM for Pouliot or Purcell.

I think a bad contract like Semin, maybe Nathan Horton since CBJ can't afford to be stuck paying him if he never returns, or hell maybe we can swap Ryan Clowe from NJD could be swapped for Clarkson and then bought out. Basically look for a team that struggles to get as close to the black financially and take one of there bad contracts that has a high salary and give them Clarkson (who's salary is basically all bonus $'s from here on out making him more appealing to be stuck with from a financial standpoint than paying Semin $1m per goal).

These moves being done I think are likely and hence why I do not believe this team needs to be blown up. However now I worry about room for Franson after M.Stall reports came out that he will be signing for 6y x $5.7m.

Basically I could see 15-16 roster looking something like this

B.Poulliot - R. O'Rielly - P.Kessel
4 6 8
J.Van Riemsdyke - N.Kadri - ?
4.25 4?
L.Komorov - P.Holland - R.Panik
2.95 0.775 1.75?
D.Winnik - S.Carrick - J.Levio
1.8 0.7 0.925

D.Phanuef - C. Franson
7 6
M.Rielly - R.Polak
1.744 2.95
S.Percy - S.Robidas
1.076 3

J.Bernier
5?
J.Riemer
2.3

Gunnarsson - 0.2
Gleason - 1.833
Semin? - 2.1
Lupul? - 0.525

Cap Total - 68.878

This would leave roughly $4m in cap space for another winger and 2-3 on hand players, so really your looking at around $2m spending money for a fill in player. Maybe Nylander makes the team next year and Panik continous to impress.

Just some rough ideas, shows that the situation is not as awful as some may say, and there are potential options. I've accepted that Lupul will be gone, I think with all the analytics guys in now that Bozak goes. That makes it a coin flip if they can dump Clarkson or if they part ways with Franson.

 

[TheLeafsBro]

I see it more as a retool. Shanny knows the importance of drafting well and developing our youth so you don't have to worry about that. Whether players like Kessel are traded or not I think is still up in the air. I believe Shanny wants to see how this team can improve under Horachek over the next month and a half before trade deadline looms and decisions need to be made about the core. Infact those decisions may not even be made until the offseason considering Shanny is an ultra patient executive.

 

[Stephen]

I really want to believe in Stamkos and Tavares and Babcock coming to T.O. I just don't see it happening, just like i do not see Tippet getting canned from Arizona (newest rumour I'm starting to hear is that they are trying to pin their downtrend on him and not the lack of roster talent they have).

Stamkos is a really long shot, but if he goes to free agency, that should be an important medium term milestone the franchise can orient its reform to:

The Leafs have a terrible core of players and a terrible locker room culture, they are capped to death and have a poor cupboard of prospects, considering how long they've been out of the playoffs.

They need to look at the Stamkos free agency as a potential Zdeno Chara to Boston moment. Here's my checklist:

a) Unload people like Franson, Lupul, Reimer and Bozak in the short term before the trade deadline. I don't think it does this team any good to invest heavily in Franson, Lupul is an injury prone waste of time, Reimer should be set free. Bozak just embodies that soft, loser hockey we need to distance ourselves from.

b) Collect prospects and picks, reload the system at the 2015 draft table.

c) Sort out the coaching vacancy in the offseason and work towards a new blueprint and program.

d) Clean up the scouting staff at some point in the offseason, get rid of Nonis.

e) Trade Kessel and Phaneuf in the offseason. The new core going forward should be something like Nylander, Rielly, Bernier, JVR, 2015 first rounder and the returns from blowing up the core.

f) Go into the 2015-16 season leaner and hungrier with cap space to play with.

g) Go after Stamkos, selling a revamped program with him as the centerpiece. If we don't get him, no worries, we will have helped ourselves out by cleaning house anyway.

 

[Tak7]

Come on guys... The Stamkos talk is getting embarrassing now..

Some of you are reasonably including him in your plans for the future of the organization!?

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Stamkos is a really long shot, but if he goes to free agency, that should be an important medium term milestone the franchise can orient its reform to:

The Leafs have a terrible core of players and a terrible locker room culture, they are capped to death and have a poor cupboard of prospects, considering how long they've been out of the playoffs.

They need to look at the Stamkos free agency as a potential Zdeno Chara to Boston moment. Here's my checklist:

I agree with a few of your points, and totally agree about Stamkos importance to us would be like Chara to Boston, however some points I have to rebutle.

a) Unload people like Franson, Lupul, Reimer and Bozak in the short term before the trade deadline. I don't think it does this team any good to invest heavily in Franson, Lupul is an injury prone waste of time, Reimer should be set free. Bozak just embodies that soft, loser hockey we need to distance ourselves from.

I actually agree with this one. This is an aspect of the team that I feel needs to be changed. I do however believe that Franson is a very good 2nd pairing defenseman and terrific PP specialist. I will say after last season I thought he was done in T.O, but he has looked very good this year. That said if $6m is the new assumed min. after the M.Stall signing, that changes things a bit. $5m and I think they can get away with there current cap issues but 6 makes things tight. Trade him if they must but they will not get value at the deadline. As for Lupul and Bozak, they need to go and some more diverse players should come in.

d) Clean up the scouting staff at some point in the offseason, get rid of Nonis.

I actually don't believe that this scouting staff is bad. They are the same group responsible for nabbing players like Gunnarsson, Kulemin, Riemer, Brown, and potentially Levio, McKegg, Carrick, Percy, and Finn, all are terrific late round (late first round for Percy) picks. They have not had a whole lot of opportunities to pick in the first 2 rounds and when they have well they may have hit a home run with Nylander, Kadri has a tone of evidence that he should be given more assets that top talent Centres get surrounded with, and Rielly is looking like he could be a franchise defender. Yes there is Biggs (who I feel is more of a BB pick) and Gauthier (who despite lacking talent may just be the most brilliantly defensive minded player ever drafted not named Patrice Bergeron) but I would say this group does a fairly good job at analyzing talent and they have one of the best groups scouting Sweden alongside Detroit.

As for Nonis. He should never be allowed anywhere near contract negotiations. He is also not a very good big picture guy. However he possess one absolutely amazing skill that makes him still an asset. He can make trades like none other. BB said himself that Nonis did the work for the Phanuef deal, and the Lupul/Gardiner trade. Two absolutely crazy one sided deals. He also picked Holland off Anaheim for absolutely nothing, and managed to get Bernier for basically nothing as well. Hell even the David Bolland trade (a 2nd and 2 4ths?) was for minimal asset loss. Keep him around, especially since its clear that Shanny is driving the ship now. Let him tell Nonis what to go out and do maybe some unbelievable trades may come this way.

e) Trade Kessel and Phaneuf in the offseason. The new core going forward should be something like Nylander, Rielly, Bernier, JVR, 2015 first rounder and the returns from blowing up the core.

Do not trade Kessel, the flaws of this team are not his fault. This team was ahead of itself in 2013. I got swept up in it too, we all did. Cooler heads prevail. Nonis as a big picture guy set this team back a few years. We needed another top 5 top 10 pick especially one that was in a draft as deep as 2013 was, but the team over achieved, partially from not getting stomped on in California. But let me ask you this. Do you know who the second highest goal scorer is after Stamkos in the last 4 years. I'll give you a hint its not Ovetchkin. We will never get value for kessel.

As for Dion, despite his supposed poor leadership and bad personality and the fact that his shoes are filled with cement, he is still a top pairing D on just about any team in the league, save maybe 5. That is very difficult to replace my friend.

To sum things up, patience, patience patience. This team has not had the opportunities to fill its organization with talent because of management shipping out 1sts and 2nds like candy the past 15yrs. It's rough, I know, we all know, but blowing things up every 5 years, especially when you have some strong pieces in place already is not going to change things.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

I agree with a few of your points, and totally agree about Stamkos importance to us would be like Chara to Boston, however some points I have to rebutle.



I actually agree with this one. This is an aspect of the team that I feel needs to be changed. I do however believe that Franson is a very good 2nd pairing defenseman and terrific PP specialist. I will say after last season I thought he was done in T.O, but he has looked very good this year. That said if $6m is the new assumed min. after the M.Stall signing, that changes things a bit. $5m and I think they can get away with there current cap issues but 6 makes things tight. Trade him if they must but they will not get value at the deadline. As for Lupul and Bozak, they need to go and some more diverse players should come in.



I actually don't believe that this scouting staff is bad. They are the same group responsible for nabbing players like Gunnarsson, Kulemin, Riemer, Brown, and potentially Levio, McKegg, Carrick, Percy, and Finn, all are terrific late round (late first round for Percy) picks. They have not had a whole lot of opportunities to pick in the first 2 rounds and when they have well they may have hit a home run with Nylander, Kadri has a tone of evidence that he should be given more assets that top talent Centres get surrounded with, and Rielly is looking like he could be a franchise defender. Yes there is Biggs (who I feel is more of a BB pick) and Gauthier (who despite lacking talent may just be the most brilliantly defensive minded player ever drafted not named Patrice Bergeron) but I would say this group does a fairly good job at analyzing talent and they have one of the best groups scouting Sweden alongside Detroit.

As for Nonis. He should never be allowed anywhere near contract negotiations. He is also not a very good big picture guy. However he possess one absolutely amazing skill that makes him still an asset. He can make trades like none other. BB said himself that Nonis did the work for the Phanuef deal, and the Lupul/Gardiner trade. Two absolutely crazy one sided deals. He also picked Holland off Anaheim for absolutely nothing, and managed to get Bernier for basically nothing as well. Hell even the David Bolland trade (a 2nd and 2 4ths?) was for minimal asset loss. Keep him around, especially since its clear that Shanny is driving the ship now. Let him tell Nonis what to go out and do maybe some unbelievable trades may come this way.



Do not trade Kessel, the flaws of this team are not his fault. This team was ahead of itself in 2013. I got swept up in it too, we all did. Cooler heads prevail. Nonis as a big picture guy set this team back a few years. We needed another top 5 top 10 pick especially one that was in a draft as deep as 2013 was, but the team over achieved, partially from not getting stomped on in California. But let me ask you this. Do you know who the second highest goal scorer is after Stamkos in the last 4 years. I'll give you a hint its not Ovetchkin. We will never get value for kessel.

As for Dion, despite his supposed poor leadership and bad personality and the fact that his shoes are filled with cement, he is still a top pairing D on just about any team in the league, save maybe 5. That is very difficult to replace my friend.

To sum things up, patience, patience patience. This team has not had the opportunities to fill its organization with talent because of management shipping out 1sts and 2nds like candy the past 15yrs. It's rough, I know, we all know, but blowing things up every 5 years, especially when you have some strong pieces in place already is not going to change things.

The first step for internal healing is to let go. I know It's tough. We've been losers for over a decade, and the idea of 3-5 more years of losing hurts. Unfortunetly if we don't dismantle this mess soon we will be losing for more years to come. Out with the old in with the new.

 

[Al14]

Leafs need to unbuild: diffuse the negativity surrounding the current core by dismantling it, accumulate as many picks as possible to do the proper talent search for core pieces for a 2018 and beyond team so the young pieces we currently have won't be idling in the primes while management fails to provide them with help, and clear as much cap room as possible.

Yes, Stamkos is a pipedream but they still need to be prepared to pounce on that instead of realizing they're capped out and can't move on a big fish. Can't have a situation where the Leafs are kicking themselves with what ifs for the next 2 decades just because their cap was all screwed up.

So true!

 

[The Thin White Duke]

I could see Stamkos leaving TB but very much doubt that it would be to come here. TB has incredible forward depth and as ridiculous as it may sound, might be able to afford losing Stamkos if his contract demands are in the 11+ range which he deserves.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

The first step for internal healing is to let go. I know It's tough. We've been losers for over a decade, and the idea of 3-5 more years of losing hurts. Unfortunetly if we don't dismantle this mess soon we will be losing for more years to come. Out with the old in with the new.

My only problem with dismantling this mess is we have yet to surround Kessel and Phanuef with enough High end talent to say this team is finished. Nonis Louisselle and Poullin signed awful contracts that has crippled this team, however I still believe that this team is 2 maybe 3 top 10 picks away from being able to become competitive. Now looking at what we have I would like to ask leaf fans a few questions:

1) Do you know who the second highest goal scorer behind Steven Stamkos in the past 4 years is?

2) How many teams would you look at there defense and say Old Cement Shoes is not a top pair defender?

3) What realistically do you see Kadri, Nylander and Rielly becoming?

4) Despite lacking High end talent outside of Nylander, do you believe players such as Johnson, Loov, Gauthier, Brown, McKegg, Percy, Levio, Carrick, and Finn have potential to be NHL caliber players (not necessarily top 6 players)?

When I look at these questions I see that Phil Kessel is an Elite Player that has had insufficient talent around him these past 5 years. I look at other teams rosters and I say, yeah, as slow as Neon Dion is, there may only be about 3 or 4 teams I don't have him on the top pair. I see Rielly becoming a top pair defenseman and I think Kadri and Nylander will be two really good Goal scorers in this league. I think we have enough guys in the Marlies that they can fill out bottom end roster slots, but this team needs a Big Scoring Centre, a Shutdown Defenseman and a Power Forward that can make space. All these available in the top 10 which is where this team should be picking this year and probably next year.

All these answers I say that this team does not need to rebuild, but to continue rebuilding. STL made the playoffs and then spent a couple years out of it making some tweaks to there roster before becoming the power house they are. ANA won with Niedermyer and Pronger, and now have been slowly working their way back to being a league wide powerhouse. Montreal same thing, Tampa Bay, now Nashville ect. They didn't get where they are by tearing the whole thing down each time it got rough, they got where they are by going back over what they had, seeing what worked and what didn't and solving those problems.

Last year Shanahan and Nonis concluded that the lack of 4th line talent was the problem. So they shipped out players who could not play at both ends and brought in players who can. Last week they determined it was the coach, so they shipped him out and seeing what Horachek can do on the interm before diving in during the summer to one of the biggest coaching Free Agencies this league has ever seen.

It takes time, it takes patience to build a team. You look at what you have versus what you don't have and you see how you can get what you need with what you got. The Leafs have talent this time. It's not like 2008. Lupul, Bozak, Polak, Robidas, Riemer, JVR. All these guys have talent. All these guys bring something to the table that other teams want. What did this team have in 2008? A poorly signed Jason Blake and Tomas Kaberle. The top line of this team was Steen Stajan and Blake and the starting goalie had a 0.891 SV%. This team was crap. If fans are honest with themselves, they can't say that this time.