If the Plan Isn't to Rebuild

[masarume]

I would imagine the likelihood of kids born 2000 and on being Leaf fans in % is starting to dwindle. I imagine Kids don't like perennial losers as their team of choice and with the Internet following other teams is easy. They are going to lose a significant portion of a generation of leaf fans if they keep this up.

I did not conduct any studies or research to validate this claim. Call it a hunch.

They better get their **** together fast.

Or be forced to operate like a real team? That's crazy-talk.

I have bosses. They have kids. Their kid's only memory of playoff hockey = the team's dramatic loss in game 7 to the Bruins.

Imagine trying to be a fan of that.

 

[Mess]

My Magic Eight Ball says Kessel an Phanuef gone at the deadline.

If either Kessel or Phaneuf are traded it would most likely happen in the off season and close to the entry draft. IMO

Teams willing to take on 7 or 8 year contracts seldom happen at the trade deadline. That is a lot of long term financial commitment and planning that is needed as opposed to impulse buying involved.

 

[mashedpotato]

That's why they need the cap space. So they can sign the guys they develop in the future.

My space is not for UFAs, I would say so if I meant that. The room must be made if they can for the future and for in the event someone comes available that we can get and want.

There are no prospects that we have that aren't covered by entry level contracts. Certainly none that will take more than what we have at the end of this year.

We don't need 25m+ for them.

And no team is dumb enough to take on long term contracts that we have.

You're delusional if you think we or any team, can just unload contracts the way you've outlined.

Get a grip. You have to accept the fact that the Leafs are stuck with the contracts we've got and the method of rebuilding isn't the same as it used to be. You can't just shed contracts because you've selected the rebuild option; similarly, you can't "blow it up" either.

You're stuck with the contracts unless a team a) sees value in the contract you're trying to unload and can use the asset; b) is expecting something else in value other than asset. A simple example would be, We'd send Clarkson's contract the other way in addition to Reilly/Nylander as incentive; c) offsetting contracts.

All options assuming that they've got the capsace to consume the incoming cap hit.

 

[mashedpotato]

It either Kessel or Phaneuf are traded it would most likely happen in the off season and close to the entry draft. IMO

Teams willing to take on 7 or 8 year contracts seldom happen at the trade deadline. That is a lot of long term financial commitment and planning that is needed as opposed to impulse buying involved.

Contract value is greater than asset value these days.

Would any team love a Kessel? Of course they would. Any team irrespective of Kessel's 'coachability' work ethic, ineptitude on the defensive end etc. would appreciate Kessel.

Can any team afford him without moving out a) consuming existing capspace for 7+ years or b) have the near-impossible ability to ship out offsetting cap/term hit?

I doubt it.

I miss Capgeek but I'm guessing there's only a few teams out there that have the capspace to absorb kessels contract without having to send the Leafs offsetting hit/term.

...Atleast not without incentive to do so. Think sending Nylander/Reilly in addition to Kessel.

 

[Blueblood]

The goal for the 2016/2017 season should look like this:

???/ Stamkos / Kessel
JVR / Kadri / ???
??? / Nylander / Komarov
??? / ??? / ???

 

[WilliamNylander]

The goal for the 2016/2017 season should look like this:

???/ Stamkos / Kessel
JVR / Kadri / ???
??? / Nylander / Komarov
??? / ??? / ???

Getting rid of clarkson might be harder than signing stamkos

 

[Blueblood]

Getting rid of clarkson might be harder than signing stamkos

True, but I think it could be done. We may have to put up with him one more season.

 

[Teeder9]

Depends on how much you really want him gone. Could you handle retaining 2-2.5m of his contract?

 

[Blueblood]

Depends on how much you really want him gone. Could you handle retaining 2-2.5m of his contract?

I could live with it. If it has to happen to free up space for Stammer then I'm all for it.

 

[Pi]

Depends on how much you really want him gone. Could you handle retaining 2-2.5m of his contract?

Isn't that the same as a buyout?

David Clarkson is pure garbage.

Leafs don't need to rebuild. Just tank it this year. I see plenty of players finally playing to a system. We're not going to light the world on fire next year but we should be a playoff team if this team allows <30 shots a game and is at least playing some sort of possession hockey.

Tanking it this year likely gives the Leafs two legit #1C prospects. When have the Leafs ever had that since 1967? I can't remember.

 

[Teeder9]

I could live with it. If it has to happen to free up space for Stammer then I'm all for it.

Cardboard cutouts don't count against the cap

 

[Blueblood]

Cardboard cutouts don't count against the cap

If he is a free agent come July 1st 2016 you have to try for him. And if he is, I believe he will be a LEAF. A center core of Stamkos, Kadri, Nylander would be alright. If we make trades before then, or draft high and pick up something better than Kadri or Nylander, then we run with it. Our goal should be Stamkos if available. Keeping Kessel gives us a #1C, and the winger we always wished Sundin had. Kessel has to stay.

 

[Grapes1]

If Shanahan is smart he will realize that he will be employed much longer if they rebuild. He will get a pass for the 3-4 years of drafting high, and then will have a few more years to see what he can do with it.

If he keeps the status quo, people will be calling for his head by the end of next season...

 

[Teeder9]

If he is a free agent come July 1st 2016 you have to try for him. And if he is, I believe he will be a LEAF. A center core of Stamkos, Kadri, Nylander would be alright. If we make trades before then, or draft high and pick up something better than Kadri or Nylander, then we run with it. Our goal should be Stamkos if available. Keeping Kessel gives us a #1C, and the winger we always wished Sundin had. Kessel has to stay.

Lot of ifs. Why wouldn't TB offer him league max and why wouldn't he sign? Why would he even want to come here if we aren't already a contender?

 

[thewave]

There are no prospects that we have that aren't covered by entry level contracts. Certainly none that will take more than what we have at the end of this year.

We don't need 25m+ for them.

And no team is dumb enough to take on long term contracts that we have.

You're delusional if you think we or any team, can just unload contracts the way you've outlined.

Get a grip. You have to accept the fact that the Leafs are stuck with the contracts we've got and the method of rebuilding isn't the same as it used to be. You can't just shed contracts because you've selected the rebuild option; similarly, you can't "blow it up" either.

You're stuck with the contracts unless a team a) sees value in the contract you're trying to unload and can use the asset; b) is expecting something else in value other than asset. A simple example would be, We'd send Clarkson's contract the other way in addition to Reilly/Nylander as incentive; c) offsetting contracts.

All options assuming that they've got the capsace to consume the incoming cap hit.

Basically I am saying pay teams to take the crap off us flip the bill of the 10m a year hit off the cap ceiling. Play more kids suck it up and build it that way.

Pay them to go. You want Lupul give us x pick and we shave 1m off the cap. Clarkson? 2.75m off for 5 yrs or whatever they can do.

Just get them out of here. If the Cap is 72m ours is 62m just accept that is the situation. Dump Dion for 6m Robidas for 2.5m just reset this sucker and rebuild it up. Trick is how do you sign Bernier to a plan like that? Does he want to be in this?

The sooner they wake up to the disaster they have created the better for everyone it will be.

It's a nightmare believe me.


Edit: we can only retain on up to 3 contracts.

You know what, no wonder Nonis grew in the beard he knows he screwed this team up long term. He knows it. The cap situation is a wreck at the moment without blowing it up. Seems Kyper is right, trade Kessel and I think he said Dion a well.

 

[Blueblood]

Lot of ifs. Why wouldn't TB offer him league max and why wouldn't he sign? Why would he even want to come here if we aren't already a contender?

Unfortunately, nobody but Stammer knows what he would do. That's why the "if" is there. I don't see Kadri or Nylander being traded. Kessel either. The "if" and only "if", is where will Stamkos sign?

 

[Trapper]

If Shanahan is smart he will realize that he will be employed much longer if they rebuild. He will get a pass for the 3-4 years of drafting high, and then will have a few more years to see what he can do with it.

If he keeps the status quo, people will be calling for his head by the end of next season...

If Shanahan declared a full rebuild, through the draft to create a core around a no. 1 center and D, I give him more than 3-4 years. Minimum 5-7. I have full patience for a rebuild. It might take a couple of tries and the right draft, not sure how strong 2016/17 are, but I can wait. As long as the player coming in are groom with compete,skill and 2-way play. As long as the picks fit the culture.

 

[ACC1224]

Lot of ifs. Why wouldn't TB offer him league max and why wouldn't he sign? Why would he even want to come here if we aren't already a contender?

He will get max dollars where ever he goes.

 

[Mess]

They mentioned yesterday the Leafs inquired about Mike Richards and would have interest in Keith Yandle if/when available.

If the plan isn't to rebuild then its more of the same and trying to trade and sign your way to success by trying to buy it as opposed to building it.

There is a strong possibility that re-tooling can and will continue.

 

[Trapper]

They mentioned yesterday the Leafs inquired about Mike Richards and would have interest in Keith Yandle if/when available.

If the plan isn't to rebuild then its more of the same and trying to trade and sign your way to success by trying to buy it as opposed to building it.

There is a strong possibility that re-tooling can and will continue.

Some decisions will have to be made.
TSN reports Rangers and Staal close to a 6 year, 5.7 million/year deal.
What will Franson be looking for?

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Lot of ifs. Why wouldn't TB offer him league max and why wouldn't he sign? Why would he even want to come here if we aren't already a contender?

Never understood this. Stamkos is the center piece of a good thing in Tampa. He's been with them through thick and thin, and now he's starting to reap the reward. He has a MUCH better chance winning the cup in Tampa now AND in the future due to their young team coming together and developing nicely. I don't see him leaving that especially when:

1. He'll take home more money in sunny Florida.
2. The Leafs organization could still very well be a circus.

 

[Mess]

He will get max dollars where ever he goes.

Stamkos example (#'s estimated)

If you stay with your own team you can get a 8 year deal and if you leave you can only get 7 year max as a UFA.

8 years @ $10 mil = $80 mil to stay in TB
verses
7 years @ $10 mil = $70 mil to move as a UFA

To leave you are leaving $10 mil on the table due to leaving verses staying due to CBA contract limits while getting max contract value.

 

[ACC1224]

Stamkos example (#'s estimated)

If you stay with your own team you can get a 8 year deal and if you leave you can only get 7 year max as a UFA.

8 years @ $10 mil = $80 mil to stay in TB
verses
7 years @ $10 mil = $70 mil to move as a UFA

To leave you are leaving $10 mil on the table due to leaving verses staying due to CBA contract limits while getting max contract value.

Assuming he retires after 7 years.

 

[hockeystick89]

If the plan isn't to rebuild then we should expect another 10 years just like the past 10 years.

Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is what Einstein referred to as the definition of insanity.

I agree with your post but man do I ever hate that quote.

I can't count the number of times in university some smug first year philosopher would use(and often butcher) that quote to make a point. 90% of those guys were convinced that the actual medical definition of insanity was to be in the state of continually repeating the same process and expecting different results. A definition coined by world renowned pioneer of modern psychology, Albert Einstein.

 

[Trapper]

Stamkos example (#'s estimated)

If you stay with your own team you can get a 8 year deal and if you leave you can only get 7 year max as a UFA.

8 years @ $10 mil = $80 mil to stay in TB
verses
7 years @ $10 mil = $70 mil to move as a UFA

To leave you are leaving $10 mil on the table due to leaving verses staying due to CBA contract limits while getting max contract value.

Stamkos is a pipe dream.
This team needs to stop pipe dreaming.
Need to stop dreaming that a Stamkos or Getzlaf or Weber are on there way to magically make the core indestructable.

We need to do the right thing and start from the beginning. Drafting and developing our own players high in the 1st round to become a 1C and 1D. Drafting more than 5 times in 7 rounds. Adding as many players as we can through later rounds to give us the best chance at organizational depth. Making solid trades as the above start rounding out.
Doing the right thing is the hardest thing to do.