If the Lightning don't win the Stanley Cup this year, Will it be considered a choke?

[MartinS82]

NO. If its a team vs the field, odds are always in favour of the field...

Except in the NBA the last few years.

 

[Paris in Flames]

If they lost in the first round then yeah....I think they'd get the choker label.

If they lost in round 2 or 3 because a Rask, Andersen or whoever got really hot and it went 7 games...nah. Not a choke. That's just hockey.

 

[rfournier103]

I’ve always understood the term “choke” to mean snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by way of some kind of heinous blunder or just crapping out.

If the Lightning don’t win the Stanley Cup this season, I think it would be more of a “disappointment” than a “choke.”

If they blow a 3-0 or 3-1 series lead, then I think that would be a choke - as it would be for any team.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

The Tampa Bay Lightning are tearing up the League and have solidified themselves as the clear cut Stanley Cup Favorite.

In fact, I think they're so good and above everyone else...that they should win the Stanley Cup with ease.

With the season that they're having, would they be considered "Chokers"...if somehow they don't win it all this season?

no team realistically has more than about a 25% chance to win it all. so even if tampa has that high of a chance, i would not consider it choking to do something that is 75% likely to happen.

 

[MartinS82]

This. Detroit went 62-13-7 in '95-96 and lost in the conference finals. They won the cup the next season and added 3 more in the 10 years after that.

Can't lose to the 96 Avs and call it a choke though. Disappointment? Absolutely, but those guys were a great team in their own right and had perhaps the best money goaltender in the history of the sport.

1993 Penguins...now there's a choke job. Team had won 9 strait series (including like 14 straight games at one point) ended the season on a 17 game win streak (remember ties were ties back in those days) and Lemieux had maybe the most impressive season in the history of the sport. They lost to the Islanders who were without their best player, Turgeon. Islanders were 32 points behind them in the regular season.

 

[CupsOverCash]

It's the way they lost said series. In 2016, they scored two goals in the last two games of the ECF. Last year, they were shutout in games 6 and 7. They had a 3-2 series lead both times. Completely outplayed in both instances after getting said 3-2 lead.

Under Cooper, this team has a track record of having no killer instinct. It goes back to the 2015 Finals.

Coop definitely has heat on him this year to get it done. I could see a “shakeup” if we don’t do it this year. There is definitely pressure on this team to win it all. Last year there was but not as much as last year. We kind of needed to prove ourselves again as a team in the playoffs since we missed it the year before. Those two before that we were close as well but we didn’t play hard when we needed to. And I give a lot of credit to the teams we lost to because we got beat bad. There is still some questions about this team and we will see if they are good enough to overcome the difficulties of the nhl playoffs especially deep playoffs where every team is good. You could easily lose to any of them if you aren’t on your game and can still lose when you are on it.

I think Coop deserves credit for bringing his team this far so many times but I think he’s been out coached in those series we lost as well. I mean he’s still a young coach but he’s proven himself as a guy who can get his team far and close to winning it all. We played like crap in some of those games we lost the series in but there were also instances where a bounce here or a different decision here and we win the series and we are talking about how good this team is instead of how they lost these clutch games.

So while I do think there is much for this team to prove and things could change if they don’t but I feel like this core still has a lot of good runs in them and if they can play a little better, coach a little better, and a little luck they can win this but the opposite result is not as unsurprising as many think. We can be beat. The playoffs where anything can happen. A really good hot team comes in and takes that momentum with them to a cup cam easily happen and we find ourselves out of the finals again. It will be fun to watch though. I think this team will give a much better effort so we will see if that is enough.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I’ve always understood the term “choke” to mean snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by way of some kind of heinous blunder or just crapping out.

If the Lightning don’t win the Stanley Cup this season, I think it would be more of a “disappointment” than a “choke.”

If they blow a 3-0 or 3-1 series lead, then I think that would be a choke - as it would be for any team.

Their track record, to me, means you could loosen the definition a bit. They've blown 3-2 leads in their last two conference final appearances, and they also blew a 2-1 lead to Chicago in 2015 but that's not quite the same thing and, truthfully, Chicago was a better team*. Point being, they've gotten close and then, for one reason or another, not been able to see it out. They were already out of excuses last year, so they're definitely out of excuses this year.

I acknowledge that even the best weighted odds don't work in our favour too much. You know what? I don't care, and neither should any the rest of my Bolts brethren. We're the favorites. We have all the expectations. We're going to be labeled "Cup or bust" and, well, so be it. It's to the point where that's kind of the way it has to be. So, you know what I say to everyone else? Embrace it. Embrace the tag, embrace the expectations. Ignoring it or downplaying it won't make it go away. If things work out the way he hope they do, we'll have a summer full of celebration.

*Yeah, Pittsburgh was better in 2016, too, but 3-2 up with Game 6 at home? Close the deal, yo.

 

[Byrddog]

The biggest question is can Vasi stay hot in the post season. Goals will not be a problem.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

The biggest question is can Vasi stay hot in the post season. Goals will not be a problem.

Don't be 100% certain of that. We were the highest scoring team in the NHL last year, and despite that we didn't score a goal for the last 159 minutes and 27 seconds of the Conference Final, a number that is forever burned into my memory. Never know when an opposing goaltender will get hot, and you never know when your offense will go AWOL.

But I agree with the first part of your post and the two no doubt go hand-in-hand. The Caps were up 1-0 62 seconds into Game 7 last year. For a team with a suddenly sleeping offense, there's no way that didn't ramp the pressure up a few notches at a time when they couldn't afford it. That's the recipe that leads to someone not winning the battle to a puck sitting in the crease with the goalie out of his net, which was the moment I think where we all realized it wasn't gonna happen for us in that series.

 

[Sensators]

They are the best team and their pp is BY FAR the best in the NHL, however hockey has some luck in it - I wouldn't call it a choke but I will be surprised if they don't win. They are the most favoured team in recent history.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Depends how the team that beat them was doing.

If the healthy Pens get on a roll and fire on all cylinders and beat Tampa in 7 would that be a choke in my eyes? Nah. That team won freaking b2b cups.

But if something like last year happens again then absolutely. That team shouldn’t get shut out 2 games in a row.

There’s probably more ways it can end that i would consider a choke, though. They’re just that good. But sometimes you got to tip your cap to a team playing out of their minds and if they lose to a team like that then it is what it is.

 

[The Panther]

Regardless of Tampa fans dismissal of the thread, yes it would be. So much hype about this team right now...

Hype has never determined which team wins a game.

 

[The Panther]

I was thinking about this yesterday -- although any team can lose at any time in the NHL playoffs, it's hard for me to think of which team can (all things being equal, health-wise) defeat Tampa in a seven-game series.

I actually think Calgary, maybe, could, if they each get as far as the Finals, because Calgary has a similarly explosive offense. Tampa isn't used to facing teams that can score as well as they can. (My only concern about Calgary being the goaltending.) But right now I don't see any team in the East that should beat Tampa Bay. I don't see Washington as having the depth. Pittsburgh is hit and miss, and inconsistent. Boston wins their games, like, 2-1 in overtime; they lack depth.

At the beginning of the season, I predicted Tampa or Nashville to win the Cup. Nashville has obviously taken a step back (so far), so the field is clear for Tampa to go crazy.

I do think it's important, however, that Stamkos keeps scoring. If he gets a goal or two in the first game of the playoffs, it's a good sign. They can't win if he pulls another disappearing act.

 

[Garbage Goal]

Given how good that roster is, how great of a season they're having, how great of a contract a lot of their players are on, and how they have yet to win a Cup in this Stamkos-led era I don't think there's any reasonable answer but yes. Potential for injuries being a potential reason why it wouldn't be a choke, however. This comes from someone who thinks all Cup wins require a degree of luck and normally hates to use the word "choke" in this context.

 

[Chardo]

Maybe if they get beat by the Islanders.

Which will happen.

 

[Flukeshot]

Based on their 75% win percentage, If it takes them more than 20 games to win the Cup it's a failure.

 

[ForumNamePending]

I dunno... If they get bounced in the first round or go out quietly 4-1 in the 2nd round or something like that... Sure, call it a choke.

But if they go down in a hard thought ECF or SCF, the players, organization and fans will have every right to be disappointed the team came up short... But choked? Nah... Hockey is a weird crapshoot of a game. I mean if a team loses on weird bounce in double OT, on a controversial call/rule (e.g. a goal gets called back because they were slightly offside 30 seconds earlier), or because the opposing goalie made 50+ saves, I have a hard time saying they choked... And that stuff happens sorta-kinda often in hockey.

And none of the above takes into account if they lose a key player or two to injury.

 

[Pens x]

If the Lightning don’t win the cup then this season will be a huge failure.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

If we don't fill the first page main boards up with 400 threads about the Lightning, is it a choke?

But if the Lightning choke in the forest do they make a sound?

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

The question should be asked once they are eliminated (if they are).

We'll then be able to determine if they were hit by an injury bug, were unlucky, faced an out-of-this-world goalie or choked, amongst a few possibilities.

 

[GordieHowsUrBreath]

I think it would be less of a choke than the 2016 and 2017 Washington Capitals teams (120 and 118 points). The construction of those rosters were almost flawless, especially after the deadline.

it's not a choke when you lose to a better team with a few less regular season wins

 

[Bladerunner]

No one wins the Stanley Cup with ease.

A team that's a heavy favorite in all of their series (say, 2-to-1 favorites) will win the Stanley Cup less than 20% of the time.

In fact, to be an even money (50% chance) bet to win the Stanley Cup, a team needs to be an 84% favorite (more than 5-to-1 favorites) in every one of their individual series.

Sheesh, there was a thread almost identical to this just a few days ago. Your math/ logic are correct. I and others have posted very similarly.
Unless it's an absurdly bad match up, hardly ever is a team an 84% fav to win one series. Even 2:1 favs is uncommon.
Face it, most people do not understand basic probability. I see them on sports boards all the time

As I've posted many times on HF, "choke/choking" is one of the most overused words on sports forums.
If TB is eliminated in the first round by WC2 team - especially in under 7 games - then that's a somewhat of a choke. But if eliminated in the 2nd or 3rd round by a good contender with a hot goalie, not really a choke. If TB doesn't glide or go life and death to the SC it's not a choke.

Let me review. Too many key board "warriors" on sports boards:
1) don't understand simple probability concepts (if they do, then they're just trolling);
2) act like this is a 6 team league w/2 playoff rounds or the early days of the expansion to 12 teams;
3) have never competed in anything at a high competitive level ever in their lives - and never will;
4) and therefore overuse the word "choke".

I suppose it makes some feel better about themselves

 

[b in vancouver]

Unless they fell asleep at the wheel and didn't show up and got bounced - it wouldn't be a choke, as compared to just losing because someone played really well.
There's some good teams in The East and some that'll look even better after the TDL.

They could have the Pens in the 1st round.
Followed by Boston.
Then Washington.
Then Winnipeg.
or something like that.

Favourites in each series but that'd be tough sledding.

 

[sharks9]

Anything other than the ECF would be a massive choke

 

[Oddbob]

Simple answer is yes! When you are constantly a top team and don't win the whole thing, you will be considered a choker! Detroit was before they started winning in the late 90's, and Washington was, until they won it all last year. Tampa Bay is no different, and injuries which I have seen used as an excuse from some Lightning fans are not a valid excuse. All teams get hurt, and have playoffs ruined from time to time, from injuries, so that is not an acceptable reason.

Whether it is fair or not, if you don't win (the Cup), you won't be considered the best anything, and will be labeled a choker.