If Gretzky played in the O6 era ...

[blogofmike]

Once Gretzky and Orr really got going they did it by more or less throwing out the rulebook on how an O6 player was supposed to play.

Bobby Orr isn't Bobby Orr if he never ventures past the blue line. Wayne Gretzky isn't Wayne Gretzky if he stays in his lane.

When those "rules" got broken, frequently and skillfully, the old style defenses got bludgeoned. In their hands, it was a better way to play, and it often left the old school guys stymied.

 

[decma]

Not when it is the only connection we have between Gretzky and the O6 era.

Ratelle and Esposition both played in 79-80. How did Gretzky do in games against the Bruins and Rangers that season?

 

[Canadiens1958]

Ratelle and Esposition both played in 79-80. How did Gretzky do in games against the Bruins and Rangers that season?

Poorly.

Bruins won 4 out of 4, Edmonton limited to 9 GF while allowing 17. Gretzky (0G, 2A). Ratelle (0G, 3A).

Rangers won 3 out of 4, losing 1. Outscored Oilers 22 to 9. Gretzky (0G, 2A). Esposito (1G, 6A).

 

[JackSlater]

To build on the transparent and well intended Gretzky and Keon work already done:

1979-1980: Gretzky 3 points, Keon 5 points across four head to head games.

1980-1981: Gretzky 14 points, Keon 4 points in four head to head games.

1981-1982: Gretzky 3 points, Keon 0 points in two head to head games.

Total NHL head to head: Gretzky 20 points, Keon 9 points in ten games.

The data is there. Gretzky would likely have been a tremendous shutdown centre in the O6. Probably would have scored a little as well. Don't come at me with context or reason please.

 

[Doctor No]

Finally, some meaningful data.

Impressive that Gretzky posted two shutouts of Keon in 1981-82. That was a tough year for shutouts overall, too. Denis Herron only had three!

 

[McGuillicuddy]

Am I the only one who finds the Gretzky/Keon head-to-head data a bit pointless for demonstrating how Gretzky would fare in the O6 era? Keon was 39/40/41 year old in the seasons he overlapped with Gretzky. We also don't know how often they were on the ice together.

We also know Gretzky turned the rulebook on how to play centre on its ear. Gretzky was driven to be the best. Period. He might have needed to adapt his game to some extent to fit the era, but it's hard to find a reason he wouldn't be successful at it. He wouldn't suddenly have been easier to hit, as others have implied above (someone speculated he might not even "survive"). If an all-time great like Denis Potvin says trying to hit Gretzky was like trying to hit a ghost, I don't think the players of the O6 era would have fared notably better.

The exercise is fun, I just find the Keon/Gretzky data pretty much irrelevant for swaying the argument either way.

 

[Doctor No]

Am I the only one who finds the Gretzky/Keon head-to-head data a bit pointless for demonstrating how Gretzky would fare in the O6 era?

Nope. We covered it above (starting with the third post in the thread), but C1958 pressed forward with it.

 

[bobholly39]

Interesting small window from the 1979-80 NHL season when a young Wayne Gretzky played the Hartford Whalers with two O6 dinosaurs in Dave Keon and Gordie Howe. The Keon vs Gretzky comparison in these games is interesting.

Four games.

Edmonton 0 at Hartford 4
Hartford 0 at Edmonton 3
Hartford 3 at Edmonton 3
Edmonton 2 at Hartford 6.

Gretzky 1 G, 2 A, only 2 ES points. Keon 1G, 4A with 5ES points. O6 era Gretzky would have to play defensively. Owned by roughly the 5th-10th best overall O6 center, Dave Keon, who in 1979-80 was more than twice Gretzky's age.

Please no small sample size songs.

I love your post. I agree with you 100%.

On a totally unrelated topic - just thought i'd mention that Henri Richard has got to be the worst playoff performer ever. Just look at his playoff stat line in 1964. He's age 27 - what's supposed to be a player's BEST year. 7 games barely 2 points and -1 rating. Pathetic.

 

[bobholly39]

Inspired by some of the debates in the Wayne Gretzky overrated thread:

If Gretzky played in the O6 era ...

... what would his stats look like,
and how would he be rated today?​

The year Howe scored 95 points - Gretzky would have scored 120 points, at least.

That's a starting point.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The year Howe scored 95 points - Gretzky would have scored 120 points, at least.

That's a starting point.

120 points is a little high considering Maurice Richard led the pack with 61

 

[Canadiens1958]

To build on the transparent and well intended Gretzky and Keon work already done:

1979-1980: Gretzky 3 points, Keon 5 points across four head to head games.

1980-1981: Gretzky 14 points, Keon 4 points in four head to head games.

1981-1982: Gretzky 3 points, Keon 0 points in two head to head games.

Total NHL head to head: Gretzky 20 points, Keon 9 points in ten games.

The data is there. Gretzky would likely have been a tremendous shutdown centre in the O6. Probably would have scored a little as well. Don't come at me with context or reason please.

1980-81
Nov. 28,1980

Edmonton Oilers - Hartford Whalers - November 28th, 1980

Dec. 7, 1980

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - December 7th, 1980

Jan. 9, 1981

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - January 9th, 1981

March 25, 1981

https://www.nhl.com/gamecd 3 ENG goalenter/edm-vs-hfd/1981/03/25/1980020781#game=1980020781,game_state=final

Note the 3 ENG points scored.

Seems that NHL official game center data paints an alternative picture. Gretzky had 10 points as opposed to 14.

Interestingly in the first three games Gretzky outscored Keon 6 points to 4 yielding a +1 to Keon's +2.

Last game, Whalers playing with the goalie out, yielded 3 ENG points to Gretzky. As a result on the game Gretzky was +4 while Keon was -4.

1981-82

Oct 21, 1981

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - October 21st, 1981

Nov 11, 1981

Edmonton Oilers - Hartford Whalers - November 11th, 1981

Feb. 19, 1981 (Keon DNP)

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - February 19th, 1982

The Keon DNP game is of particular interest. Gretzky scored 5PTS, 3 ESGF but 3ESGA gave him a +/-, net 0. Likewise in the two games when Keon Played, Gretzky had a net 0. Gretzky a shutdown center. No evidence exists. Keon without scoring points wa a net 0 also.

 

[Canadiens1958]

I love your post. I agree with you 100%.

On a totally unrelated topic - just thought i'd mention that Henri Richard has got to be the worst playoff performer ever. Just look at his playoff stat line in 1964. He's age 27 - what's supposed to be a player's BEST year. 7 games barely 2 points and -1 rating. Pathetic.

Ironically losing to the Leafs and Dave Keon who arguably had the greatest playoff game 7 on the road, of all time, scoring a hat trick in a 3-1 victory.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Stan Mikita won some Art Rosses without "playing defensively" (that came later in his career). I think a protege like Gretzky would be fine. It may or may not take him longer to break into the league than he did in real life, depending on the team; obviously breaking in with the Canadiens is tougher than the Rangers.

That said, I think a true genius like Gretzky would be recognized sooner rather than later. Bobby Orr was a Norris finalist as an 18 year old rookie in the last season of the O6, after all.

That's because he was a better player than Gretzky.

 

[shazariahl]

The Oilers were one of the worst teams in the league that year. That a rookie player on a below 500 team that only made the playoffs because 16 of 21 teams made it and the Oilers managed to finish 16th had some bad +/- games shouldn't be surprising. The fact you are looking at just a handful of games makes this even more ridiculous. If we are evaluating people by +/- then we'd have to conclude Gretzky is the finest defensive forward of all time, since he has the records for both single season and career for any forward ever in this category.

For that matter, the Oilers got swept in their first playoffs, first round, which would lead me to conclude Gretzky was a playoff choker who couldn't win the big game.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Do you have these games on tape or something? Don't we need to know how much Keon and Howe were on the ice against Gretzky for this comparison to have any validity at all?

Also, let's not forget that you are talking about a rookie Gretzky who was 18/19 years old.

Being at the two games in Hartford, I can tell you Keon was on against Gretzky almost all of the time. Didn't really notice Gordie be on at all. Specifically watching Gretzky (as everyone did at the time) it was hard to miss Keon being pretty close to him at all times.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Am I the only one who finds the Gretzky/Keon head-to-head data a bit pointless for demonstrating how Gretzky would fare in the O6 era? Keon was 39/40/41 year old in the seasons he overlapped with Gretzky. We also don't know how often they were on the ice together.

We also know Gretzky turned the rulebook on how to play centre on its ear. Gretzky was driven to be the best. Period. He might have needed to adapt his game to some extent to fit the era, but it's hard to find a reason he wouldn't be successful at it. He wouldn't suddenly have been easier to hit, as others have implied above (someone speculated he might not even "survive"). If an all-time great like Denis Potvin says trying to hit Gretzky was like trying to hit a ghost, I don't think the players of the O6 era would have fared notably better.

The exercise is fun, I just find the Keon/Gretzky data pretty much irrelevant for swaying the argument either way.

How many times did Potvin face Gretzky. Perhaps 30RS games and three playoff series, total 15 games. Different than facing a player 14 times in one regular season.

Ghostbusters:



Not even a hall of famer.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

The Oilers were one of the worst teams in the league that year. That a rookie player on a below 500 team that only made the playoffs because 16 of 21 teams made it and the Oilers managed to finish 16th had some bad +/- games shouldn't be surprising. The fact you are looking at just a handful of games makes this even more ridiculous. If we are evaluating people by +/- then we'd have to conclude Gretzky is the finest defensive forward of all time, since he has the records for both single season and career for any forward ever in this category.

For that matter, the Oilers got swept in their first playoffs, first round, which would lead me to conclude Gretzky was a playoff choker who couldn't win the big game.

Or, you can say he was on the ice for the most goals scored and the most goals allowed in NHL history (to be more accurate).

 

[Irato99]

Or, you can say he was on the ice for the most goals scores and the most goals allowed in NHL history (to be more accurate).

Of course when you are the best player to ever play the game you're going to be on the ice a lot, in all offensive and defensive situations. I like how you try to discredit Gretzky by bringing a stat when most of the top players leading that stat are in the hall of fame, kinda lose the credibility there...

 

[JackSlater]

1980-81
Nov. 28,1980

Edmonton Oilers - Hartford Whalers - November 28th, 1980

Dec. 7, 1980

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - December 7th, 1980

Jan. 9, 1981

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - January 9th, 1981

March 25, 1981

https://www.nhl.com/gamecd 3 ENG goalenter/edm-vs-hfd/1981/03/25/1980020781#game=1980020781,game_state=final

Note the 3 ENG points scored.

Seems that NHL official game center data paints an alternative picture. Gretzky had 10 points as opposed to 14.

Interestingly in the first three games Gretzky outscored Keon 6 points to 4 yielding a +1 to Keon's +2.

Last game, Whalers playing with the goalie out, yielded 3 ENG points to Gretzky. As a result on the game Gretzky was +4 while Keon was -4.

1981-82

Oct 21, 1981

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - October 21st, 1981

Nov 11, 1981

Edmonton Oilers - Hartford Whalers - November 11th, 1981

Feb. 19, 1981 (Keon DNP)

Hartford Whalers - Edmonton Oilers - February 19th, 1982

The Keon DNP game is of particular interest. Gretzky scored 5PTS, 3 ESGF but 3ESGA gave him a +/-, net 0. Likewise in the two games when Keon Played, Gretzky had a net 0. Gretzky a shutdown center. No evidence exists. Keon without scoring points wa a net 0 also.

I appreciate the correction, you are indeed right. I suppose that if a young Gretzky could only outscore original six stalwart Keon at a 16:9 ratio then we are only looking at an Art Ross favourite shutdown centre. There is plenty of evidence to assert that Gretzky would be a shutdown centre of course, unless you for some reason think that a tiny sample size of games in which we don't even know if two players were matched against each other isn't solid evidence.

In terms of how many points Gretzky would actually score, I would use a method similar to what I use to estimate Gretzky's scoring today. At his peak (let's say 1981-1982 to 1985-1986) Gretzky outscored the fifth place scorer (arbitrary number selected to remove outlier performances) by 73% on average. I just looked at the last eight years before expansion, and from 1959-1960 to 1966-1967 the fifth place scorer averaged 71 points. This number was actually pretty stable too, with 75 being the highest and 65 as the lowest. Anyway, if Gretzky outscored a fifth place scorer with 71 points by 73%, we're looking at ~121 points in the 1960s. A far cry from 200, but that is to be expected.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Of course when you are the best player to ever play the game you're going to be on the ice a lot, in all offensive and defensive situations.

Reverse the situation and ask about the highest scoring team being the most scored upon team, then look at how their success is viewed. Hint 1947 to 1950 Chicago.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Anyone else think if Gretzky (or Mario) played in the 50's and 60's they would have been wingers rather than centers?

 

[Canadiens1958]

I appreciate the correction, you are indeed right. I suppose that if a young Gretzky could only outscore original six stalwart Keon at a 16:9 ratio then we are only looking at an Art Ross favourite shutdown centre. There is plenty of evidence to assert that Gretzky would be a shutdown centre of course, unless you for some reason think that a tiny sample size of games in which we don't even know if two players were matched against each other isn't solid evidence.

In terms of how many points Gretzky would actually score, I would use a method similar to what I use to estimate Gretzky's scoring today. At his peak (let's say 1981-1982 to 1985-1986) Gretzky outscored the fifth place scorer (arbitrary number selected to remove outlier performances) by 73% on average. I just looked at the last eight years before expansion, and from 1959-1960 to 1966-1967 the fifth place scorer averaged 71 points. This number was actually pretty stable too, with 75 being the highest and 65 as the lowest. Anyway, if Gretzky outscored a fifth place scorer with 71 points by 73%, we'ls down to thisly the issue comere looking at ~121 points in the 1960s. A far cry from 200, but that is to be expected.

Actually the Gretzky v Keon comparable was motivated by a eye witness post yesterday in another thread:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/140886077/

The vs 5th place application is a misuse of VsX which requires seasonal baselines. Regardless even a proper VsX would not apply here.



Supported since then by real numbers from the recently released NHL game sheets or a close proximity.

Your latest, bolded is an inadequate attempt at something that approximates VsX to generate a very inflated number.

Basically you overlook that in a 21 team league - NHL during Gretzky's prime, facing 10 decent to elite defensive centers would cover at best 50% of his TOI. In the O6 era every team had at least two decent to elite defensive centers. So Gretzky would be facing a quality defensive center virtually all the time, not 50% of the time. Breakdown HHOF defencemen and goalies and the gaps between eras are even greater with the O6 being harder to score in.

One issue that has not been addressed is Gretzky's faceoff skills. Available for his last two seasons:

NHL.com - Stats

NHL.com - Stats

Sub 50% combined his last two seasons. Usually veteran centers improve or is this about as good as he ever was? Below 50% O6 centers would have puck possession and defensive issues.

So roughly Mikita offensively with at best Mikita lite defensive skills is optimistic. If I grant you Gretzky's inflated 16 to 9 ratio over Keon - who averaged under 60 points in a 70 game O6 schedule, we arrive at the 95-99 point level or Mikita/Moore levels. Factor out the 3ENGs and we have a 85 - 90 point scorer.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Anyone else think if Gretzky (or Mario) played in the 50's and 60's they would have been wingers rather than centers?

Lemieux probably. That was what happened with Pete Mahovlich and earlier Frank Mahovlich. Both big centers out of junior.

Gretzky would have stayed a center since he could lead a rush up either wing.

 

[JackSlater]

Actually the Gretzky v Keon comparable was motivated by a eye witness post yesterday in another thread:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/140886077/

The vs 5th place application is a misuse of VsX which requires seasonal baselines. Regardless even a proper VsX would not apply here.



Supported since then by real numbers from the recently released NHL game sheets or a close proximity.

Your latest, bolded is an inadequate attempt at something that approximates VsX to generate a very inflated number.

Basically you overlook that in a 21 team league - NHL during Gretzky's prime, facing 10 decent to elite defensive centers would cover at best 50% of his TOI. In the O6 era every team had at least two decent to elite defensive centers. So Gretzky would be facing a quality defensive center virtually all the time, not 50% of the time. Breakdown HHOF defencemen and goalies and the gaps between eras are even greater with the O6 being harder to score in.

One issue that has not been addressed is Gretzky's faceoff skills. Available for his last two seasons:

NHL.com - Stats

NHL.com - Stats

Sub 50% combined his last two seasons. Usually veteran centers improve or is this about as good as he ever was? Below 50% O6 centers would have puck possession and defensive issues.

So roughly Mikita offensively with at best Mikita lite defensive skills is optimistic. If I grant you Gretzky's inflated 16 to 9 ratio over Keon - who averaged under 60 points in a 70 game O6 schedule, we arrive at the 95-99 point level or Mikita/Moore levels. Factor out the 3ENGs and we have a 85 - 90 point scorer.

I am not misusing anything, just taking a rather basic look at Gretzky's scoring rate compared to other top players. It's not as basic as extrapolating from a four game sample, but it is indeed pretty basic. I am also not particularly concerned about how often Gretzky had to play against top end defensive players unless for some reason he had to face such players more or less often than other top centres in the NHL. I don't doubt that facing top players more often would reduce Gretzky's point totals. I do doubt that it would significantly reduce his scoring relative to other top scorers who were in the same situation though.

 

[shazariahl]

Or, you can say he was on the ice for the most goals scored and the most goals allowed in NHL history (to be more accurate).

Sure. But I wasn't saying Gretzky is the greatest defensive forward ever. I was addressing the idea that we can take a few games from his rookie season when the team was a below 500 expansion club and say he was a minus player in those games, thus he wouldn't have been able to handle the O6 era. My point was that this is a ridiculous notion, and if we are going to give that much weight to +/-, then we'd have to also go the other way, and say that since Gretzky has the best +/- for any forward ever (single season and career, as I mentioned) that he'd be forced to agree he was the best defensive forward ever. However, that's a ridiculous conclusion, and I thought it was clear that I was indicating it was a ridiculous conclusion. Which is the point. Don't read so much into +/-, especially for very small sample sizes for rookies on below 500 expansion teams in one specific match up.

As for Gretzky being on the ice for the most goals against, this is also true, but he played a ton of games, during the game's highest scoring era, and he was a 1st team PKer. It seems rather silly to hold that against him, which is why +/- doesn't penalize you for being scored on while short handed. Basically you're saying Gretzky would have been better defensively if he hadn't been a 1st team PKer, because he would have been on the ice for fewer goals against. That makes no sense. Bourque is #2 in this category; is anyone going to argue that he was terrible defensively?

I think we can all agree that Gretzky wasn't very good in front of his own net, or that he didn't really fight for pucks in the corners, or that he didn't block shots. I think its fair to say he wasn't great defensively in a traditional sense. That said, he was a great penalty killer. He was one of the most effective players at pressuring the point and creating turnovers, either through stripping players or blocking/intercepting passes and allowing the Oilers to break out or clear the puck. His anticipation was very useful defensively, not just on offense.