I think Marner is going to have a better year than Matthews

[nuck]

Not unless Matthews gets hurt again. But for the injuries he out scores MM by 12 points this season. Mitch's best analog is Pat Kane who scored 72 and 70pts his first two seasons. 10 years later he scores 106pts but that is an outlier year and Kane's peak expected output is more like his 88pt and 89pt years. For Mitch to get to 88 pts he needs to score at least 30 goals which is a 45% jump from this year. I think he can get there eventually but probably not next season. Its a lot less of a reach for a healthy Matthews to outscore his 81 point pace by 9pts then for Marner to add 21pts.

The new line mates are a bit of a wild card, but I think Marner helps Tavares numbers more than the other way around. There is no guarantee Hyman can build on last season or that he will mesh with a new line and Marleau will only maintain at best.

IMO the best case for Marner is somewhere around 80 pts which is still great growth. I would really like to see what he and Willy could do if they had the same ice time as the other top RWs. They are over 2 minutes TOI less than players like Rantanen and Zuccarello and over 3 minutes less than Wheeler, Radulov, or Stone. You can't score if you aren't on the ice.

 

[Walshy7]

Can say the same thing for Matthews then

Well sure you can. For winning, imo of course, it’s more important that Matthews and Jt are our best forwards. 2 c’s and on different lines

 

[DarkKnight]

Centers are always the key to success. That said, I believe Marner can drive a line and impact a game as much as any center, he is a truly unique skill set so traditional knee jerk arguments aren't necessarily persuasive. Matthews is the man, but Marner is a beaut, is it October yet?

 

[Notsince67]

Centers are always the key to success. That said, I believe Marner can drive a line and impact a game as much as any center, he is a truly unique skill set so traditional knee jerk arguments aren't necessarily persuasive. Matthews is the man, but Marner is a beaut, is it October yet?

I'm so itching for the season I am contemplating building an analytic dashboard with targets.
...or maybe I should just go outside and cut the grass

 

[DarkKnight]

I'm so itching for the season I am contemplating building an analytic dashboard with targets.
...or maybe I should just go outside and cut the grass

I approached my doctor about a self induced coma for 8 weeks.

 

[Buds17]

It could depend on context.

Pretend they both play great...which of these seasons would you classify as better?

82 games played | 50 goals | 30 assists | 80 points | Auston Matthews
82 games played | 20 goals | 70 assists | 90 points | Mitchell Marner

By these stats alone, I'd go with Marner. 50 goals for Matthews would be incredible, and if Marner got 70 assists, his playmaking ability obviously isn't being wasted. I'd prioritize points over goals or assists if only able to choose one of those metrics. Factoring in other considerations such as defensive play and C vs W though would alter my opinion of better player/season.

 

[pulfordfan]

Posts like these really make me realize how much I miss hockey.

 

[Duke Silver]

It's pretty wild that Marner and Nylander might be our 3rd and 4th best players.

 

[Notsince67]

By these stats alone, I'd go with Marner. 50 goals for Matthews would be incredible, and if Marner got 70 assists, his playmaking ability obviously isn't being wasted. I'd prioritize points over goals or assists if only able to choose one of those metrics. Factoring in other considerations such as defensive play and C vs W though would alter my opinion of better player/season.

Meh. Marner should crack 30+ goals this year. I see 20 as a lack of progress in his shooting. Hard to argue that you are better than a 50 goal scorer with only 20 goals

 

[Mess]

On any given year Marner could be the Teams leading scorer.
For this team to go anywhere Matthews will have to be the best player.

Can't say I've ever looked forward to a season as much as I am this year.

That is all spot on...

 

[mking098]

It could depend on context.

Pretend they both play great...which of these seasons would you classify as better?

82 games played | 50 goals | 30 assists | 80 points | Auston Matthews
82 games played | 20 goals | 70 assists | 90 points | Mitchell Marner

To me it is obvious that goals are substantially more valuable than assists (especially when you don't differentiate between primary and secondary assists, but even with primary assists goals are substantially more valuable).

 

[zeke]

don't think people realize that both Matthews and Willy were far more productive at even strength than mitch last year.

mitch's advantage only came on the PP.

 

[ShaneFalco]

On how Marner’s 2018 offseason training has gone:

He trains at 9:30 every day and he’s in there for 2-3 hours. Depending on whether we have ice, he’d be on the ice once or twice a week right now, and that will crank up as it gets into

August now. I’ll say this: He’s been on another level this summer. Last summer, we had a great summer, too, but there was a lot of change happening coming off of your first pro season and a successful one. There were a lot of things going on. He came in this summer the most probably the most focused I’ve ever seen him – and driven. It’s going to be exciting to see what this might translate over into. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him this focused and working this hard. It’s been translating over into the things we want to see improved on in the gym, and hopefully that will show on the ice as well.​

On how driven by the John Tavares addition Marner has been and his comments that he’d like to be more of a leader in the room going forward:

It is a sign of the type of leadership that Kyle Dubas has brought in. Involving Mitch in that process was invaluable. It gives Mitch ownership over it. It makes him feel like he is involved. Obviously, he is involved. He is a big part of that.

I definitely think that it’s something that is on his mind – wanting to be recognized for the work he does in the locker room and off the ice. I’ve said it before: The one thing that people don’t realize that although Mitch brings a lot of levity to situations, he is probably one of the best locker room guys you’ll ever hear guys talk about just in terms of he knows when to switch it on and switch it off. I see it every day in the gym when he’s working out with guys three years or four years older than him. He is the guy driving the pace and pushing the competition level. It is going to be fun and exciting for people to see that side of Mitch as well.​

[Leafs Links] Mitch Marner's long-time performance coach, Dan Noble: "This is most focused and driven I’ve ever seen him" | Maple Leafs Hotstove

 

[Notsince67]

don't think people realize that both Matthews and Willy were far more productive at even strength than mitch last year.

mitch's advantage only came on the PP.

Dealt with already. After January, Marner outperformed them both

 

[ACC1224]

don't think people realize that both Matthews and Willy were far more productive at even strength than mitch last year.

mitch's advantage only came on the PP.

To be expected when 2 of the 3 best players play together. It would be a real concern if that weren't the case.

 

[zeke]

Dealt with already. After January, Marner outperformed them both

?

Feb/March/April:

Matthews: 20gms, 17es pts
Nylander: 30gms, 19es pts
Marner: 30gms, 19es pts

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Dealt with already. After January, Marner outperformed them both

eh not really. Marner had 34 points in 30 games, Matthews had 24 in 20 games. And Marner had over twice as many powerplay points. So yeah, it's the powerplay

 

[Mess]

don't think people realize that both Matthews and Willy were far more productive at even strength than mitch last year.

mitch's advantage only came on the PP.

~40% of Marner's points come on the PP as he finished tied for 20th in the NHL in PP points last year.. So he feast on the point on the PP. Marner's ES points put him 68th in the NHL.

Matthews is one of the top 5v5 players in the NHL in terms of production (29 goals in 64 games top 5 in NHL) complete with a +25 +/- ranking putting him top 15 in the NHL at even strength. So not only is he highly productive 5v5 time where most of the game is played but his defensive 2-way game makes his line come out way ahead in he goals for vs goals against battle, often going up against he opposition best.

PS. Its much easier for a player to increase his point totals by increasing PP totals when you have a man advantage on the opposition.

 

[dubey]

imho.

I agree

Great argument and well thought. Particularly enjoyed your use of statistics to back up your points. Quality thread.

 

[DarkKnight]

?

Feb/March/April:

Matthews: 20gms, 17es pts
Nylander: 30gms, 19es pts
Marner: 30gms, 19es pts

So once he got off the Bozie line your point is mute.

 

[zeke]

So once he got off the Bozie line your point is mute.

the bozie line's issue never was about scoring.

 

[Rielly4]

Marner is a good 5 on 5 player but hes clearly not as good 5 on 5 as Matthews...Matthews size and hands downlow make him hard to contain 5 on 5. Matthews is the best 5 on 5 scorer in the league.

Hyman-Tavares-Marner has all the makings of an amazing 5 on 5 line. Good forecheck, strong prescence downlow that will be hard to knock off the puck. And a guy that will wheel around the zone leaving the defenders heads spinning. It is very much like the Hyman-Matthews-Nylander line 5 on 5 which was the most productive in the NHL.

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander will make them a slightly worse cycle and forecheck line even though Marleau is still good in that area. But this will make them a much stronger line when it comes to rush chances and pretty tic tac toe plays. Auston and Willy were scared to pass to zach unless it was a chip into the corner. Now they have a legitimate 3rd linemate to pass with and we should see some pretty plays.

Both of these lines should be extremely dangerous 5 on 5 as they have the makings of a balanced line that can wear teams down on the cycle or burn them on the rush. The internal competition between them should create some 8-0 wins for the leafs. Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen has all the makings of an amazing 3rd line with speed, skill and creativity along with defensive prowess. Most offensively skileld speedy 3rd lines in the NHL come with defensive baggage and trust issues from the coach...But not ours. This forward lineup is looking too good. I honestly think we might be looking at being the presidents trophy winners.

 

[Sypher04]

~40% of Marner's points come on the PP as he finished tied for 20th in the NHL in PP points last year.. So he feast on the point on the PP. Marner's ES points put him 68th in the NHL.

Matthews is one of the top 5v5 players in the NHL in terms of production (29 goals in 64 games top 5 in NHL) complete with a +25 +/- ranking putting him top 15 in the NHL at even strength. So not only is he highly productive 5v5 time where most of the game is played but his defensive 2-way game makes his line come out way ahead in he goals for vs goals against battle, often going up against he opposition best.

PS. Its much easier for a player to increase his point totals by increasing PP totals when you have a man advantage on the opposition.

Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer in the league

Last year, it wasn't especially close either.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Rank it by goals/60. #1 Matthews #2 Sonny Milano. #13 on this list is as close to Milano as Milano is to Matthews.

 

[Notsince67]

?

Feb/March/April:

Matthews: 20gms, 17es pts
Nylander: 30gms, 19es pts
Marner: 30gms, 19es pts

Sorry. Rushed through the ES piece. You are right. I was including PPP's

 

[IPS]

don't think people realize that both Matthews and Willy were far more productive at even strength than mitch last year.

mitch's advantage only came on the PP.

Personally I really hope they join him on his only advantage.

I ain't down with this split-unit BS that's likely gonna be done instead.