I Hate The Draft Lottery

[LeafsNation75]

I’m shocked people still believe the draft lottery is rigged. Please explain how you think they do the rigging. Why would Bettman want Canadian teams, more specifically Edmonton to win the lottery ? The fact they’ve won it so much just shows it ISN’T rigged.

Not only that 2016 was the first year where they had a drawing for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks. 2015 Was the last year where a team who finished last place overall could only drop from the 1st pick to the 2nd pick.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The ones I went to were the draft day parties, not the lottery party. Not sure if they even held lottery parties, it would be pretty embarassing to have one and then lose. Get all of your fans together only for them to be disappointed.

That's why I was surprised TSN showed the footage of those Oilers fans watching it in 2010 and 2011.

 

[GordieHowsUrBreath]

the system with the cap and lottery is perfect now, as usual you people are living in the past

 

[Brian McDavid]

As a Leafs fan I will admit being one of those people who wanted them to lose during the 2015-2016 season so they could get the best possible spot in the draft lottery that year. However what you don't realize it was stressful and hard to watch since I'm a huge Leafs fan, however for the future of the franchise it needed to happen. Plus they didn't clinch last place overall until the very final game of the regular season and once it was the draft lottery it all came down to luck. Thankfully the Leafs got the 1st pick in 2016, however what you might not know is during the 4th ball drawing based on the numbers which were already selected (6-8-5) they could only win with the #13. One year before during the Connor McDavid lottery they had the best odds for the 4th ball drawing because the numbers which was already selected (5-14-6) the Leafs needed a #1 ball to be selected and according to a Toronto Star article it was about to happen, until a #2 Oilers ball knocked it away at the last possible second. So after going through all of the emotions its something I don't want to experience for a long time.

HAHAHAHAHA. Whoever wrote the article is crazy.

 

[Brian McDavid]

It's fine. Less than 1/5 chance to win if you finish last. If you want to tweak it, I'd suggest no more than 3 top 3 picks every 5 years. The 'Oiler Rule.' Something like that

 

[LeafsNation75]

HAHAHAHAHA. Whoever wrote the article is crazy.

Here is a link to that article, however I'm wondering why are they crazy for stating the obvious?

NHL lottery: Leafs were bounce away from McDavid | Toronto Star

 

[ornist]

I posted this idea a while back and can't remember the opinions toward it but I figured I would throw it out there again in this thread. I still think it's a viable option. :


Here's an idea I came up with for the draft lottery . What if instead of a teams odds of winning the draft weren't tied to a static figure based on their place in the standing. What if it was more dynamic and instead based on the individual teams performance relative to the other non-playoff teams? This would better account for parity and get rid of scenarios where a team has a large statistical advantage despite being very close to another(s) in the final standings. This would still provide teams with very low totals a decent sized advantage . Here is what I am suggesting :

You start with a figure of 164 representing the point total of a perfect season (82 X2). You then deduct the points accumulated throughput the season by each team. (Exp. Colorado finished with 48 points so for them 164 -48 =116). You then add up all those figures for each team and get a total. I have done this for all non-playoff teams this year. ( Vegas not included as expansion is a unique and infrequent factor).

That total figure for all 14 teams is 1186. Therefore Colorado would receive 116/1186 for a total of 9.78 % of winning. I have only factored for first overall at this point to make things more wieldy . I would disregard tie breaker via ROW, etc. in favor of giving tied teams the same odds.

The following is a list of odds for this past draft lottery based on this method. As you will see, it evens things out while still giving poorer performing teams on appropriate advantage.

1) Col-116/1186-9.78%
2)Van-95/-8.01%
3)ARI-94/-7.93%
4)NJ-94/-7.93%
5)BUF-86-7.25%
6)DET-85/-7.17%
7)DAL-85/-7.17%
8)FLO-83/-7.0%
9)LA-78/-6.58%
10)CAR-77/-6.49%
11)WPG-77/-6.49%
12)PHI-76/-6.41%
13)TBL-70/-5.9%
14)NYI-70/-5.9%

Just an idea. Haven't given it too much thought so there could be factors I have not considered.​

 

[Brian McDavid]

Here is a link to that article, however I'm wondering why are they crazy for stating the obvious?

NHL lottery: Leafs were bounce away from McDavid | Toronto Star

Stating that at the last second, 'an Oiler's #2 ball knocked it aside." Makes it sound like the Leafs got incredibly unlucky. It's totally random and the last second bump is totally irrelevant.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Stating that at the last second, 'an Oiler's #2 ball knocked it aside." Makes it sound like the Leafs got incredibly unlucky. It's totally random and the last second bump is totally irrelevant.

Because they say if you watch the video closely of the 4th ball drawing that's what happened.

 

[Brian McDavid]

Because they say if you watch the video closely of the 4th ball drawing that's what happened.

Ya but... "a quarter of an inch the other way, it woulda missed completely"

 

[LeafsNation75]

Ya but... "a quarter of an inch the other way, it woulda missed completely"

In the end I wish these NHL insiders allowed in the room during the lottery never publish how close a team came to winning. If I had gone the rest of my life not knowing the Leafs were that close to getting McDavid I could live with that. Thankfully the Hockey Gods were on their side the next year with Matthews.

 

[Machinehead]

I’m shocked people still believe the draft lottery is rigged. Please explain how you think they do the rigging. Why would Bettman want Canadian teams, more specifically Edmonton to win the lottery ? The fact they’ve won it so much just shows it ISN’T rigged.

How would they do the rigging? That's like asking me how AV benches Buchnevich. He just does it. They have complete control over it.

 

[Electricity]

The draft lottery is crap too because then the NHL can start putting guys where they want them, and don't think for a second that they won't. It's all about the dollar bill.

The first two years of the lottery, two huge Canadian markets get their saviors. I'm shocked.

Montreal will get Dahlin.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

How would they do the rigging? That's like asking me how AV benches Buchnevich. He just does it. They have complete control over it.

The problem here is that the NHL doesn't actually have complete control over it. Ernst & Young, one of the Big 4 accounting firms, conducts it and they conduct it pretty transparently. Here's 2015 and 2017's, for instance.

 

[Panthaz89]

I hate that bad teams are rewarded with high draft picks, talented prospects who those poorly managed franchises often ruin. Athletes who spent their whole lives working their butt off to achieve their dreams to be mismanaged and have their development stunted by imcompentant management. Go to the sub-forums of teams who aren't even basement dwellers but bubble teams, and you'll see a bunch of fans actively cheering against their favorite team so they get a better shot at the loser prize. Teams who are 8th place whose fans want to lose even though they're in prime contention of a playoff spot. That is sad. Think of how much more thought would go into managing teams & how advanced scouting would become if teams success depended on it rather than knowing they'll get the clearcut superstar if they suck enough.

I don't know which system should replace it, whether it's that idea of points accumulated once statistically eliminated from contention. Which would still make the genuinely bad teams get better picks, as they'd be eliminated far earlier so have many more games to accumulate points. But it incentivize pushing all the way to the final game for every valuable point. Teams tanking mess the standings up for playoff teams, for instance if tanking team is playing 2WC and 2WC wins to surpass 1WC to get the easier playoff matchup. Those points are very valuable to some teams and others are icing a roster with the straight up intention of losing (obviously athletes play to win, but management selling off any pieces keeping them competitive & icing AHLers). Or better yet, have the draft lottery completely random. Parity sucks and hockey is already the sport that is most strongly influenced by luck rather than top end talent to begin with. A team should never be better off losing.

A lot of those "greatly managed teams" are the ones who got lucky in the draft lottery or at least had a pick at the top prospects that center their franchise....Doughty, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kane, Toews, etc so basically nearly every SC winner in the past few years were born from guys who were at the bottom. Its not like the bottom teams aren't trying to be good anymore especially with the recent draft lottery changes no one has done anything to even try to tank in the slightest so why should teams who previously tanked be the only teams to benefit in a system. Funny enough Bruins got a top pick from the Leafs in Seguin and ended up trading him for a bunch of nothing so any management isn't exactly exempt from making weird transactions.

 

[Machinehead]

The problem here is that the NHL doesn't actually have complete control over it. Ernst & Young, one of the Big 4 accounting firms, conducts it and they conduct it pretty transparently. Here's 2015 and 2017's, for instance.

An accounting firm? Gee, there's people I trust.

They can put anything on tv "transparently" after the draw is over and done with.



Here's a transparent draw that's literally scripted.

If some random gets Dahlin who doesn't need him, I'll be the first one to admit I was wrong, but I'm skeptical of this process since the first three sent McDavid and Matthews where they did, and the Kansas City Penguins conveniently got Sidney at the last second.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

An accounting firm? Gee, there's people I trust.

They can put anything on tv "transparently" after the draw is over and done with.



Here's a transparent draw that's literally scripted.

If some random gets Dahlin who doesn't need him, I'll be the first one to admit I was wrong, but I'm skeptical of this process since the first three sent McDavid and Matthews where they did, and the Kansas City Penguins conveniently got Sidney at the last second.

Ernst & Young does somewhere around $31B in revenue a year and is considered one of the most respected accounting firms on the planet, if not the most. To think they'd rig a lottery drawing for a relatively small fish client like the NHL is highly unlikely considering it'd be the end of their reputation and place their licensure at risk.

 

[Machinehead]

Ernst & Young does somewhere around $31B in revenue a year and is considered one of the most respected accounting firms on the planet, if not the most. To think they'd rig a lottery drawing for a relatively small fish client like the NHL is highly unlikely considering it'd be the end of their reputation and place their licensure at risk.

There's plenty of companies that make more than $31B and pull a lot of shit because you get away with it when you make that much.

Again, I could be wrong, but these results all seem awfully convenient so far. Plus, there's really no need to begin with to hand teams picks other than the ones they earned on the ice.

 

[Machinehead]

the system with the cap and lottery is perfect now, as usual you people are living in the past

If you're talking about back when the NHL was watchable, then yes, I'm living in the past.

 

[Epsilon]

An accounting firm? Gee, there's people I trust.

They can put anything on tv "transparently" after the draw is over and done with.



Here's a transparent draw that's literally scripted.

If some random gets Dahlin who doesn't need him, I'll be the first one to admit I was wrong, but I'm skeptical of this process since the first three sent McDavid and Matthews where they did, and the Kansas City Penguins conveniently got Sidney at the last second.

There's plenty of companies that make more than $31B and pull a lot of **** because you get away with it when you make that much.

Again, I could be wrong, but these results all seem awfully convenient so far. Plus, there's really no need to begin with to hand teams picks other than the ones they earned on the ice.

What a load of utter nonsense. This is the kind of thing you get from people who don't spend a lot of time in the real world and put an outsized amount of importance on trivialities like sports. The fact that you've posted a pro wrestling video really drives that point home.

E&Y does business with entities that actually matter: banks, DoD contractors, world governments, and so on. The NHL draft is a complete triviality in the grand scheme of their enterprises. They also know that when they screw up or do anything that's not above board it damages their reputation. See for example the screw up at last year's Academy Awards (another event that's a lot more important than the NHL draft).

 

[Machinehead]

What a load of utter nonsense. This is the kind of thing you get from people who don't spend a lot of time in the real world and put an outsized amount of importance on trivialities like sports. The fact that you've posted a pro wrestling video really drives that point home.

E&Y does business with entities that actually matter: banks, DoD contractors, world governments, and so on. The NHL draft is a complete triviality in the grand scheme of their enterprises. They also know that when they screw up or do anything that's not above board it damages their reputation. See for example the screw up at last year's Academy Awards (another event that's a lot more important than the NHL draft).

Nothing that makes millions of dollars is a trivialty. The NHL makes billions of dollars.

If Dahlin doesn't end up in Montreal or Detroit I will admit I was wrong.

 

[ponder719]

An accounting firm? Gee, there's people I trust.

They can put anything on tv "transparently" after the draw is over and done with.



Here's a transparent draw that's literally scripted.

If some random gets Dahlin who doesn't need him, I'll be the first one to admit I was wrong, but I'm skeptical of this process since the first three sent McDavid and Matthews where they did, and the Kansas City Penguins conveniently got Sidney at the last second.

Do you genuinely not see the difference between a drawing where the person pulling the number presses a button without looking at the machine, each number is pulled individually, the ball is rotated so the number faces the camera, and is set aside in an easily reviewable location, in a single, steady shot without any cuts, and a "drawing" where random people reach their hands into a tumbler and react to a "number" that is never shown to the camera?

And as for "random team gets Dahlin who doesn't need him," what definition of "doesn't need him" are you using? The definition of "lottery team" is "not good enough to make the playoffs," so which non-playoff team doesn't need the best defensive prospect of the past generation?

 

[LeafsNation75]

The problem here is that the NHL doesn't actually have complete control over it. Ernst & Young, one of the Big 4 accounting firms, conducts it and they conduct it pretty transparently. Here's 2015 and 2017's, for instance.

Here is the 2016 draft lottery draw as another reference.

 

[Machinehead]

Do you genuinely not see the difference between a drawing where the person pulling the number presses a button without looking at the machine, each number is pulled individually, the ball is rotated so the number faces the camera, and is set aside in an easily reviewable location, in a single, steady shot without any cuts, and a "drawing" where random people reach their hands into a tumbler and react to a "number" that is never shown to the camera?

And as for "random team gets Dahlin who doesn't need him," what definition of "doesn't need him" are you using? The definition of "lottery team" is "not good enough to make the playoffs," so which non-playoff team doesn't need the best defensive prospect of the past generation?

I'm talking about any team that doesn't need Dahlin to be competitive, already has been competitive, or already has the face of the franchise.

Chicago, LA, Edmonton again, the Rangers, the Islanders (depends on Tavares), or a small market.

 

[EdJovanovski]

A lot of those "greatly managed teams" are the ones who got lucky in the draft lottery or at least had a pick at the top prospects that center their franchise....Doughty, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kane, Toews, etc so basically nearly every SC winner in the past few years were born from guys who were at the bottom. Its not like the bottom teams aren't trying to be good anymore especially with the recent draft lottery changes no one has done anything to even try to tank in the slightest so why should teams who previously tanked be the only teams to benefit in a system. Funny enough Bruins got a top pick from the Leafs in Seguin and ended up trading him for a bunch of nothing so any management isn't exactly exempt from making weird transactions.

Yea and I think the fact nearly every SC winner in the past few years were born from basement dwelling teams is a BAD thing. They all got rewarded for being terribly run franchises, while a team like NYR or DET are penalized for success. And many times poorly run teams will still fail and just ruin their prospects, Edmontons been in the basement for a decade, them Arizona and Buffalo were the basement dwellers back in the McDavid draft and they're all still right there together.

No one has done anything to tank? Of course the players are competitive athletes and aren't playing to lose but management and ownership sure as hell do. Calling up a bunch of AHL'ers to play instead of icing an NHL roster isn't tanking? Trading away any pieces that keep you competitive at the deadline isn't tanking? Buffalo and Toronto weren't tanking?