I Hate The Draft Lottery

[Kaapo Cabana]

The current lottery system isn't terrible, and its certainly better than it used to be.

What I would like to see is something that makes keeping players easier. allot each team with 2 "hometown contract" slots in which a percentage of that contract does not count against the salary cap. Allow them only to be given to players that have been with a team for at least 4/5 seasons.

 

[absolute garbage]

Why should 4-5 teams be able to buy all the players drafted and developed by everyone else?

Having no salary cap would be bad, but there should be a system in place that allowed teams to get a slight discount (like maybe 20%?) on players who meet a certain criteria. The criteria would be along the lines of "players you have drafted/developed". So for example Eichel would still be paid 10M, but he would count against the cap only 8M. You could even make that work the same way as LTIR, where it becomes active only when the team would otherwise go over the cap. This would make it slightly easier for competent organisations to keep their teams together, which I think is a thing that should be supported.

 

[ThatGuy22]

People seem to think a team taking a gamble is "stupidity" on the part of the GM. The truth is that when faced with a situation where:
Bad things happen if you do nothing
Bad things happen if you gamble and fail
Good things happen if you gamble and win

The smart decision here is to take the gamble.


The problem is that winning/loosing in the NHL is zero sum, for one team to win another MUST lose so you are going to get GM’s who gamble and lose regardless of how smart they are and how good their decision making is.

I don't think he's talking about a team taking a gamble. Signing Suter for 13 years and $98 million dollars is a gamble he'll stay healthy and productive.

Signing David Clarkson to a 7 year and 40 million dollar deal after one 46 point season at the age of 30 is just stupid no matter how you frame it, and it was obvious day one..

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

The current lottery system isn't terrible, and its certainly better than it used to be.

What I would like to see is something that makes keeping players easier. allot each team with 2 "hometown contract" slots in which a percentage of that contract does not count against the salary cap. Allow them only to be given to players that have been with a team for at least 4/5 seasons.

Having no salary cap would be bad, but there should be a system in place that allowed teams to get a slight discount (like maybe 20%?) on players who meet a certain criteria. The criteria would be along the lines of "players you have drafted/developed". So for example Eichel would still be paid 10M, but he would count against the cap only 8M. You could even make that work the same way as LTIR, where it becomes active only when the team would otherwise go over the cap. This would make it slightly easier for competent organisations to keep their teams together, which I think is a thing that should be supported.

Is there an echo in here?

 

[Ducks in a row]

I hate lottery drafts because I don't want a team that barely missed the playoffs to ever have the chance to draft ahead of bad teams. Bad teams need as much help as they can get to get out of the bad situation especially when UFA's are less likely to want to sign with such bad teams and if they do will want more. Drafts are needed for helping for bad teams to get good.

 

[tucker3434]

If you want to watch a league where only 1 or 2 teams have a chance at winning it all, watch the NBA or KHL.

Pretty much all of the currently good teams have benefited from the lottery at some point.

 

[absolute garbage]

Is there an echo in here?

Great minds think alike! The key would be to not make the percentage big because that could maybe incentivise players to ask crazy numbers like 15M "since only half it counts anyway!". Has to be something small like 20% at most, and it could be applicable to all who meet the criteria not just 2.

Also, ELCs should be 2 years long.

Pretty much all of the currently good teams have benefited from the lottery at some point.

And no one is saying the draft should be removed.

 

[lomiller1]

I don't think he's talking about a team taking a gamble. Signing Suter for 13 years and $98 million dollars is a gamble he'll stay healthy and productive.

He’s just looking at it after the fact when we know whether the gamble paid off and calling the ones where it did "good decisions" and the ones where it didn’t "bad decisions". You can’t really evaluate decision making that way.

Signing David Clarkson to a 7 year and 40 million dollar deal after one 46 point season at the age of 30 is just stupid no matter how you frame it, and it was obvious day one..

And yet the signing was praised by many hockey analysts at the time.

There was, and still is a case to be made that GM’s do not pay sufficient attention to analytics in their decision making process, and the Clarkson signing would be one example of that. The key thing to remember is that the outcome (the Clarkson singing) can’t also be the problem, you need to identify something in the decision making process that can be fixed. In this case "pay more attention to analytics".

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

Great minds think alike! The key would be to not make the percentage big because that could maybe incentivise players to ask crazy numbers like 15M "since only half it counts anyway!". Has to be something small like 20% at most, and it could be applicable to all who meet the criteria not just 2.

Also, ELCs should be 2 years long.

20% or something along those lines what I was thinking.

I was keeping it to 2 because I was thinking of it as a way to keep your superstars around without having to gut the rest of the team to keep them. Its a smaller, more implementable change.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Chicago and Edmonton never won a 1st overall pick prior to the implementation of the Draft Lottery. Pittsburgh did, but that was in 1984, some 11 years before the lottery was put into place in 1995.

Did the NHL change the drawing where they select the 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks via the lottery because of the Oilers or was it because of the Sabres and their obvious tank job for Connor McDavid?

 

[LeafsNation75]

How did Chicago get Kane when four teams finished worse than them in 2006-07?

At that time only the bottom 5 teams in the standings could win the 1st overall pick since the draft lottery winning team was able to move up 4 spots. So because they finished 26th overall that's how it happened.

 

[habsterr]

I hate lottery drafts because I don't want a team that barely missed the playoffs to ever have the chance to draft ahead of bad teams. Bad teams need as much help as they can get to get out of the bad situation especially when UFA's are less likely to want to sign with such bad teams and if they do will want more. Drafts are needed for helping for bad teams to get good.

The problem with that is teams that just missed the playoffs will stay being average, the current lotto system is probably the best for everyone. Bad teams will get high picks no matter what and the average team might get a chance to contend with some luck.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The problem with that is teams that just missed the playoffs will stay being average, the current lotto system is probably the best for everyone. Bad teams will get high picks no matter what and the average team might get a chance to contend with some luck.

Look at last years draft lottery when the Flyers went from the potential of the 13th pick and winning the 2nd overall pick.

 

[ThatGuy22]

He’s just looking at it after the fact when we know whether the gamble paid off and calling the ones where it did "good decisions" and the ones where it didn’t "bad decisions". You can’t really evaluate decision making that way.



And yet the signing was praised by many hockey analysts at the time.
There was, and still is a case to be made that GM’s do not pay sufficient attention to analytics in their decision making process, and the Clarkson signing would be one example of that. The key thing to remember is that the outcome (the Clarkson singing) can’t also be the problem, you need to identify something in the decision making process that can be fixed. In this case "pay more attention to analytics".

The only "analysts" that liked the clarkson contract, were of the same old school "hockey people" like Nonis.

You simply need to look at any comment section or thread from the time to see that it was obvious to the average fan it was a terrible deal the moment it was signed.

 

[Ducks in a row]

The problem with that is teams that just missed the playoffs will stay being average, the current lotto system is probably the best for everyone. Bad teams will get high picks no matter what and the average team might get a chance to contend with some luck.

So a team can just miss the playoffs win the lottery draft and draft a McDavid type player with 1st overall and then boom win a cup so soon while that player is on ELC and the crappy teams get pushed back in the draft and have to settle for drafting less talented more risky players that can result in years of trying to get better. That doesn't sound good and wouldn't look good when it happens.

Nothing is perfect when it comes to drafts but having a lottery that a team that just misses the playoffs can get 1st overall is one of the worst things.

 

[LeafsNation75]

So a team can just miss the playoffs win the lottery draft and draft a McDavid type player with 1st overall and then boom win a cup so soon while that player is on ELC and the crappy teams get pushed back in the draft and have to settle for drafting less talented more risky players that can result in years of trying to get better. That doesn't sound good and wouldn't look good when it happens.

Nothing is perfect when it comes to drafts but having a lottery that a team that just misses the playoffs can get 1st overall is one of the worst things.

Under the correct draft lottery format we have seen the last place teams like Toronto win the 1st pick and Colorado drop from the 1st pick to the 4th pick. We have also seen the Flyers jump from the 13th pick to the 2nd pick. So in the case of last year was it a fluke or expected given the odds?

 

[Frk It]

Under the correct draft lottery format we have seen the last place teams like Toronto win the 1st pick and Colorado drop from the 1st pick to the 4th pick. We have also seen the Flyers jump from the 13th pick to the 2nd pick. So in the case of last year was it a fluke or expected given the odds?

The worst team has a 52% chance at the #4 pick. It is technically the most likely scenario. So in the case of Colorado getting #4, that was not a fluke.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

The problem with that is teams that just missed the playoffs will stay being average, the current lotto system is probably the best for everyone. Bad teams will get high picks no matter what and the average team might get a chance to contend with some luck.

Well, somebody's got to be in the middle. But that's not franchise killing though, and their fans don't have to be penalized by sitting through horrible seasons.

 

[New Jersey]

The current lottery system isn't terrible, and its certainly better than it used to be.

What I would like to see is something that makes keeping players easier. allot each team with 2 "hometown contract" slots in which a percentage of that contract does not count against the salary cap. Allow them only to be given to players that have been with a team for at least 4/5 seasons.

so the major league soccer designated player rule.

 

[Martinez]

Fans wanting their teams to lose is irrelevant. GM’s actually tanking is the problem. That is why there is a lottery and that is why the worst team probably will pick 4th. So GM’s won’t actively tank and ice the worst team ever to be the worst team.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Some sort of soft cap or exception sure seems like it would help.

Someone on the Wings board suggested having cap break for players drafted in the second round or later. I'm sure GM's would figure out some way to game the system but it seems like a good way to reward teams that draft and develop players well.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

Did the NHL change the drawing where they select the 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks via the lottery because of the Oilers or was it because of the Sabres and their obvious tank job for Connor McDavid?

One could argue that the McDavid draft was proof that the changes implemented for the 2013 draft were just not working to the League's satisfaction. At that point you had three drafts where the top seeded team (i.e. the worst team in the League) failed to win the lottery all three times. Again though, at that point the Draft Lottery itself had been in place for over 20 years at that point and the poster who I responded to stated that the Draft Lottery was originally implemented to address Edmonton, Pittsburgh, and Chicago and seemed to be unaware that it had been in existence since 1995, well before the Pens won the Crosby lottery, the Hawks won the Kane lottery, and the Oilers won the Hall, Yakupov, or McDavid lotteries.

 

[mouser]

I like the lottery, especially the changes they implemented to select the top 3 spots.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The worst team has a 52% chance at the #4 pick. It is technically the most likely scenario. So in the case of Colorado getting #4, that was not a fluke.

It was the same for Toronto in 2016, however the one difference is they had a 47.5% chance at the 4th overall pick. Those odds went up for Colorado due to adding Las Vegas into the last years lottery. Still in the first year of this format the worst team got the 1st pick and last year they got the 4th pick.

 

[LeafsNation75]

One could argue that the McDavid draft was proof that the changes implemented for the 2013 draft were just not working to the League's satisfaction. At that point you had three drafts where the top seeded team (i.e. the worst team in the League) failed to win the lottery all three times. Again though, at that point the Draft Lottery itself had been in place for over 20 years at that point and the poster who I responded to stated that the Draft Lottery was originally implemented to address Edmonton, Pittsburgh, and Chicago and seemed to be unaware that it had been in existence since 1995, well before the Pens won the Crosby lottery, the Hawks won the Kane lottery, and the Oilers won the Hall, Yakupov, or McDavid lotteries.

Technically the Oilers as the worst team in 2011 did get the 1st pick even though they didn't win the lottery that year. New Jersey who won the lottery moved up from the 8th pick to the 4th pick, however since only the bottom 5 teams could win it and move up 4 spots at that time, that's why the Oilers retained the 1st pick.