I Cannot See Buffalo Missing the Playoffs Next Year

[Voight]

This will be great to look back on in April.





It will definitely be a Banner Season!

 

[JPeeper]

40 goals for Hall, in 56 games?

Make the playoffs in the proposed division?

You crazy, Buffalo will be getting another top 5 pick in 2021.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

I know everyone absolutely expects us to be comfortably in the basement of the division this year, but I see NJ as somewhat of a wildcard. They could absolutely be in the basement looking at a top 5 pick, but they showed some flashes last season, most particularly after Hynes was canned and Blackwood took over. Gusev found his groove towards the end of the season as well. But it's really tough to say. I truly believe Hynes was an absolutely awful coach that completely tanked us, and a full season rid of him alone could be enough to see a competitive team. Or maybe another gong show. Who knows.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Isnt Boston starting the year without Pasta and Marchand? Chara might not return. They lost Krug as a UFA. Jury is out on how Rask comes back into the room and plays.

Boston is still a top team when healthy but it’s not the same or even close to it team hitting the ice to start the season.

Theyre missing like 5-10 games max. Pasta and Bergeron have missed plenty of time and Boston was still a top team. Krug loss hurts but Chara isnt a major loss at this point.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

I like Buffalo's offense but I don't think they'll make the playoffs.

They are near the bottom of the proposed division, imo.

WSH, BOS & PIT are still good team despite getting older.

PHI & NYI have better depth than Buffalo and will contend for the top spots.

NYR is kind of a wildcard but will most likely take another step forward.

Then you have New Jersey...

 

[Ducks in a row]

Until they make the playoffs I can't see them making the playoffs.

 

[jputt99]

Making the playoffs would be a huge morale boost for the fan base . And it would be validation for Jack and the other young core players . But they could be in the toughest division of this pandemic shortened season . I'm cautiously optimistic , maybe a shortened regular season will work in their favor .

 

[Henkka]

Gonna be tough season.

Stronger division than Atlantic before. That's a killer. Former Atlantic was a division of 3 great teams and 5 poor teams. Lot of easy games to be won. You add 5 strong teams in a division and 1 poor teams and you (Sabres) are one of the poor teams. Even Rangers could rise to challenge that Top5.

Think they will have battle against Rangers for 5th spot... and will lose it.


1. WSH
2. BOS
3. NYI
4. PIT
5. PHI
6. NYR
7. BUF
8. NJD

That Top5 could be in any order.

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

I have my doubts about Pittsburgh, so I went to look at last year's advanced stats to see if they were really as good as lots of people are assuming in this discussion. But when looking through that, I noticed something strange with Buffalo:

Goals for: 21st best
Goals against: 12th best
Expected goals for: 30th best
Expected goals against: 12th best
Scoring chances for: 29th best
Scoring chances against: 5th best
Total shot attempts for: 30th best
Total shot attempts against: 4th best

Now what this tells me is that Buffalo was pretty decent defensively, not top-tier but decent. But they didn't shoot enough and didn't create enough scoring chances in order to result in more goals, so that their biggest need looks to be surprisingly not goaltending or defense but offense. Adding Hall should really help there, as would a bounce-back year for Skinner. Now whether their bottom six can help out more than last year is hard to say. But if they can create more offensive they would make a pretty big jump up the standings and be at least a bubble team in my opinion.

However, for the record, it also looks like while Buffalo didn't allow tons of high danger chances against, when they did, they more often resulted in goals (and this is reflected in their horrible 30th best PK last year). So some more clutch goaltending would absolutely help as well.

Source: Natural Stat Trick

 

[FormerSabresFan]

ink they'll make the playoffs.

They are near the bottom of the proposed division, imo.

WSH, BOS & PIT are still good team despite getting older.

PHI & NYI have better depth than Buffalo and will contend for the top spots.

NYR is kind of a wildcard but will most likely take another step forward.

I have my doubts about Pittsburgh, so I went to look at last year's advanced stats to see if they were really as good as lots of people are assuming in this discussion. But when looking through that, I noticed something strange with Buffalo:

Goals for: 21st best
Goals against: 12th best
Expected goals for: 30th best
Expected goals against: 12th best
Scoring chances for: 29th best
Scoring chances against: 5th best
Total shot attempts for: 30th best
Total shot attempts against: 4th best

Now what this tells me is that Buffalo was pretty decent defensively, not top-tier but decent. But they didn't shoot enough and didn't create enough scoring chances in order to result in more goals, so that looks to be their biggest need is surprisingly not goaltending or defense but offense. Adding Hall should really help there, as would a bounce-back year for Skinner. Now whether their bottom six can help out more than last year is hard to say. But if they can create more offensive they would make a pretty big jump up the standings and be at least a bubble team in my opinion.

However, for the record, it also looks like while Buffalo didn't allow tons of high danger chances against, when they did, they more often resulted in goals (and this is reflected in their horrible 30th best PK last year). So some more clutch goaltending would absolutely help as well.

Source: Natural Stat Trick

As a Sabres fan that watched every game this season I would say this analysis is spot on.

They didn't have enough scoring depth behind Eichel's line.

Hall, Staal, Skinner bouncing back could really help that, as could improved bottom 6 depth with Thompson (only played 6 NHL games last year due to injury), Eakin, and Cozens (most people expect him to make it). Ruutsolainen (leading scorer in Finnish league) is another wildcard for bottom 6 depth.

Aside from that, Carter Hutton was practically blind for half a season...he's supposedly doing much better now and I suspect Ullmark will get a bigger share of the starts as he did pretty well last season.

I think Buffalo will finally suprise people and make a big jump this season...if not in the playoffs, they should be in the mix right to the end.

I feel like the reason for their hot start 2 years in a row is that they do have a lot of really good talent, and it was able to get them a good jump on teams early in the season, but the lack of offensive depth and league worst goaltending (partly due to playing blind Hutton) were just too much to overcome as a long season drags on.

If they can get off to another hot start, their goalies don't crater (less chance of that with shortened season) and their offensive depth is at least average, they should be on the playoff bubble, and should be in the mix for playoffs.

I feel like Buffalos horrid goaltending (and PK, see goaltending) is really what sunk them last season. If the goalies can stay healthy and at least be average, they should have a legit shot.

Personally, I'd still like them to deal for a more talented goalie, and if they did, I think they'd surprise people and easily be top 4 in division.

 

[OscarsCards]

OP gave me a nice laugh in these dark days this is a good one

 

[thusk]

Theyre missing like 5-10 games max. Pasta and Bergeron have missed plenty of time and Boston was still a top team. Krug loss hurts but Chara isnt a major loss at this point.

losing a 21 minute/game dman(2nd behing mcavoy) who till pretty solid defensivly and playing against top opponent line YES it's a major lost.

And pasta/bergeron missing time when Boston had one of the best d group in the NHL, wil not not be the case next season without krug and Chara.

Boston is probably right now the worst team on paper with NJ in this division

 

[nbwingsfan]

losing a 21 minute/game dman(2nd behing mcavoy) who till pretty solid defensivly and playing against top opponent line YES it's a major lost.

And pasta/bergeron missing time when Boston had one of the best d group in the NHL, wil not not be the case next season without krug and Chara.

Boston is probably right now the worst team on paper with NJ in this division

This is hilarious

Losing a 41yo D and your #4D doesnt take you from by far best team in the regular season to second worst team in your division. You also do know that Chara played so much because McAvoy could cover for his increasingly poor play, right? Hes a bottom pairing D at this point.

I cant wait to bring this up when the season starts, especially since there is still a very good chance Chara is back with them next season. Also missing the addition of Miller/Smith as well.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Taylor hall isn’t that good

Agreed. He's a good piece but he's not going to come in and save Buffalo.

 

[thusk]

This is hilarious

Losing a 41yo D and your #4D doesnt take you from by far best team in the regular season to second worst team in your division. You also do know that Chara played so much because McAvoy could cover for his increasingly poor play, right? Hes a bottom pairing D at this point.

I cant wait to bring this up when the season starts, especially since there is still a very good chance Chara is back with them next season. Also missing the addition of Miller/Smith as well.

I don't see often d #4 being number being #2 in total time of ice, #2 even strenght, #1 penalty kill, dman always playing on biggest defensive mission against. Cassidy should be the worst coach of the NHL using poor Chara as much!!!

 

[nbwingsfan]

I don't see often d #4 being number being #2 in total time of ice, #2 even strenght, #1 penalty kill, dman always playing on biggest defensive mission against. Cassidy should be the worst coach of the NHL using poor Chara as much!!!

Ask literally any single Bruin fan who they think is the best out of McAvoy, Carlo, Krug, Gryz Chara are. I can guarantee you Chara is going to end up last on that list.
By your same logic Toronto lost their #1 star PK D and #4D Cody Ceci.

They're still a substantially better team than Toronto, and by far them more likely team to win the Cup next season.

 

[thusk]

Ask literally any single Bruin fan who they think is the best out of McAvoy, Carlo, Krug, Gryz Chara are. I can guarantee you Chara is going to end up last on that list.
By your same logic Toronto lost their #1 star PK D and #4D Cody Ceci.

They're still a substantially better team than Toronto, and by far them more likely team to win the Cup next season.

And thats why they're bruin fan and cassidy is considerate like one of best NHL coach


And your exemple is pretty bad

1-toronto was one of bottom 10 d and one of worst pk vs boston the best d last season and 3rd on PK...

2- Toronto add Brodie good shitdown D, pk specialist in bogosian and the best dman of KHL vs no addition in Boston

So what's your point?

 

[thusk]

This is hilarious

Losing a 41yo D and your #4D doesnt take you from by far best team in the regular season to second worst team in your division. You also do know that Chara played so much because McAvoy could cover for his increasingly poor play, right? Hes a bottom pairing D at this point.

I cant wait to bring this up when the season starts, especially since there is still a very good chance Chara is back with them next season. Also missing the addition of Miller/Smith as well.

Oh i forgot
In 2016-2017, chicago finished 1st in western conference and 3rd in entire NHl, they switch hjalmarsson for murphy and lost campbell and oduya (but played just 19 games). next season they finished last of his division. So yes its very reasonable to think boston can go from first to last with lost of chara and krug!!!

 

[nbwingsfan]

Oh i forgot
In 2016-2017, chicago finished 1st in western conference and 3rd in entire NHl, they switch hjalmarsson for murphy and lost campbell and oduya (but played just 19 games). next season they finished last of his division. So yes its very reasonable to think boston can go from first to last with lost of chara and krug!!!

Ah so they lost 3/4 of their top D, added absolutely no one, and also lost Panarin while Toews turned to garbage...

Its so similar!!

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

As a Sabres fan that watched every game this season I would say this analysis is spot on.

They didn't have enough scoring depth behind Eichel's line.

Hall, Staal, Skinner bouncing back could really help that, as could improved bottom 6 depth with Thompson (only played 6 NHL games last year due to injury), Eakin, and Cozens (most people expect him to make it). Ruutsolainen (leading scorer in Finnish league) is another wildcard for bottom 6 depth.

Aside from that, Carter Hutton was practically blind for half a season...he's supposedly doing much better now and I suspect Ullmark will get a bigger share of the starts as he did pretty well last season.

I think Buffalo will finally suprise people and make a big jump this season...if not in the playoffs, they should be in the mix right to the end.

I feel like the reason for their hot start 2 years in a row is that they do have a lot of really good talent, and it was able to get them a good jump on teams early in the season, but the lack of offensive depth and league worst goaltending (partly due to playing blind Hutton) were just too much to overcome as a long season drags on.

If they can get off to another hot start, their goalies don't crater (less chance of that with shortened season) and their offensive depth is at least average, they should be on the playoff bubble, and should be in the mix for playoffs.

I feel like Buffalos horrid goaltending (and PK, see goaltending) is really what sunk them last season. If the goalies can stay healthy and at least be average, they should have a legit shot.

Personally, I'd still like them to deal for a more talented goalie, and if they did, I think they'd surprise people and easily be top 4 in division.

In another thread, a hater of mine came at me for saying the Buffalo D is at the bottom of the league. Offensively outside of Dahlin and the occasional Risto sighting, sure they are pretty bad, but he cherry picked a few stats that showed they actually were pretty awesome defensively and that Hutton, the PK, and no O depth were the main team issues. So I started diving into more stats on this because IMO they Buffalo D core (defensively) was pretty awful and was hoping to find more stats to prove that like breakout passing, blocked shots, keeping the puck inside the O zone, neutral zone breakups, etc. But ofcourse finding those specific stats was not as easy as going to nhl.com/stats. So this is the best I could find and would love some help breaking it all down a bit to see if the D was really "Above average" per say.

Buffalo D analytics:

PuckIQ | Woodmoney

Team analytics:

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Line combos:

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

Can use this to see how X player played with Y player. More to see if certain forwards are that bad defensively:

PuckIQ | Wowy | Rasmus Dahlin

Misc nhl.com stats:

NHL Stats

 

[BFLO]

Here’s a list of some realistic expectations in improvement for the Sabres that could lead to playoff contention.
-Hall scores at 30g/82gp (Replacing Vesey’s 12g pace)
-Skinner scores at 30g/82gp (replacing his own 19.45 pace)
-Staal Scores at 20g/82gp (replacing Johansson’s 12 goal pace)
-Eakin scores at 12g pace replacing Larson’s 8g pace
-Get the PK to at least average
-replace Hutton or hope his eye surgery makes him perform like he did in 18-19 .908

 

[thusk]

Ah so they lost 3/4 of their top D, added absolutely no one, and also lost Panarin while Toews turned to garbage...

Its so similar!!

Losing one guy playing less than 25% of game, i don't consider like losing a top 4 dman. And they just switch hjalmarsson for murphy. And yes they losing panarin too but doesnt explain why they drop from 11 th in d to 24.

The same season montreal canadien 2016-2017 was one of best defensive team in the NHL (4 gaa/ game and finished 1st in his division(7overall league). They lost 38 years old andrei Maekov who considerated too old by a lot of fan and Emelin an average top 4dman. Next season they drop 4th to 25 on gaa/game ans finished 28th.

Boston losing one of their two best dman defensive side of the puck and his best offensive dman. Yes Chara was slot but absolutly no body won his one on one battle against him, 99% of time chara battle in the corner, he won his battle. 99% of time he battle on front the net he won his battle. When you winning your battle, you get possession of the puck and you losing it, you purchase the puck. Yes maybe mcavoy make look Chara better but Chara making mcavoy look better too.

A pair of gzrelcyk and mcavoy will be faster yes, but they will lost his battle and they will purchase the puck a lot more! So at the end more time to defend and less to attack

A pair of mcavoy and gzrelcyk will lostmajority of their 1v1 battle.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Losing one guy playing less than 25% of game, i don't consider like losing a top 4 dman. And they just switch hjalmarsson for murphy. And yes they losing panarin too but doesnt explain why they drop from 11 th in d to 24.

The same season montreal canadien 2016-2017 was one of best defensive team in the NHL (4 gaa/ game and finished 1st in his division(7overall league). They lost 38 years old andrei Maekov who considerated too old by a lot of fan and Emelin an average top 4dman. Next season they drop 4th to 25 on gaa/game ans finished 28th.

Boston losing one of their two best dman defensive side of the puck and his best offensive dman. Yes Chara was slot but absolutly no body won his one on one battle against him, 99% of time chara battle in the corner, he won his battle. 99% of time he battle on front the net he won his battle. When you winning your battle, you get possession of the puck and you losing it, you purchase the puck. Yes maybe mcavoy make look Chara better but Chara making mcavoy look better too.

A pair of gzrelcyk and mcavoy will be faster yes, but they will lost his battle and they will purchase the puck a lot more! So at the end more time to defend and less to attack

A pair of mcavoy and gzrelcyk will lostmajority of their 1v1 battle.

Essentially everything you just said here makes absolutely no sense. Bookmarking this for when Boston comes no where close to last in their division

 

[thusk]

Essentially everything you just said here makes absolutely no sense. Bookmarking this for when Boston comes no where close to last in their division

Yep for sure losing half of a top 4 will not have any effect

Welcome to unicorn and rainbow world

 

[Jozay]

They might finally get in if the playoffs are expanded again.