Proposal: Huberdeau for Panarin

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

If you could get Panarin at 9M, that's all you'd give up? Really? You seem to have a high regard for the player, but you won't pay for him. My guess is Jarmo would say Schwartz or no deal. And then the Blues should probably take that deal, you're definitely better off with Panarin.

It doesn’t make sense to trade Schwartz for Panarin - we need to add to that core, not replace. It’s not that Panarin isn’t worth Schwartz - it’s just not enough of a difference between Panarin and Schwartz to warrant trading him. If there weren’t a possibility of getting him at the TDL, unsigned now, or in UFA, then I’d believe that we’d have to offer Schwartz to even be competitive, but I don’t think Blues management would make that deal as things stand now, realistically.

 

[Beezeral]

So far it's been pennies on the dollar.

The title of this thread is Panarin for Huberdeau a guy coming off a 69 point season signed long term for 5.9 aav. Give you head a shake

 

[major major]

The title of this thread is Panarin for Huberdeau a guy coming off a 69 point season signed long term for 5.9 aav. Give you head a shake

Sorry, I meant in terms of real offers from teams.

 

[Toe Pick]

Can't believe people are saying Panarin is only slightly better. He's one of the best wingers in the game. Dude is elite and competes hard in all zones. Him and Barkov would be unreal.

I wanted to chime in with the same but didn’t want to sound like a homer.

I can tell you I’ve been a die hard fan from the Bruins in the early 90s to switching my allegiance to my hometown team when they came into the league in 2000 and there are not many players that I’ve watched better than this guy. He is worth the price of admission.

To be honest I wasn’t sure what we had in the guy when we made the trade. Quite frankly I don’t think Chicago knew what they had due to him playing in Kane’s shadow. What I can say without a doubt now is he is an elite game breaker who can drive an entire offense on his own. He can single handily win you games as he did on multiple occasions last year — he is the real deal complete package that GMs dream of.

And this is coming from a guy who doesn’t believe in building around a winger — but this is a player I would do so.

In a twisted way he should thank Columbus for trading for him as he’s been able to play out of Kane’s shadow and showcase what he is truly capable of to the entire league and has no doubt driven up his value.

Huberdeau is a fine player but I don’t think Florida fans realize (as I did not until watching him all last year) what kind of talent we are talking about. I would trade two Huberdeaus to get a guy like this on my squad long term — it really sucks we are going to lose him.

 

[Sasso09]

Panarin is slightly better, Huberdeau is slightly younger. The only problem is, whether Panarin will stay in Florida. Considering, he owns a condo in Florida, I think chances for him to sign a contract are pretty decent. And there is his old linemate Dadonov on the team, which should help as well.

Panarin is more than slightly better

 

[Beezeral]

Huberdeau is a fine player but I don’t think Florida fans realize (as I did not until watching him all last year) what kind of talent we are talking about. I would trade two Huberdeaus to get a guy like this on my squad long term — it really sucks we are going to lose him.

Hyperbole much? Panarin is an excellent player. He’s one of the best wingers in the NHL, but you are going overboard here.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

The Blues would pay anything in terms of futures in order to grab Panarin with an extension. Without an extension, anything short of Thomas and Kyrou with multiple picks going the other way.

If it absolutely must be non-futures, the Blues can’t compete with a deal as Tarasenko, O’Reilly, Schwartz, Schenn, Parayko, and Pietrangelo would be off limits.


Artemi Panarin, unsigned


Klim Kostin
Ivan Barbashev
Dmitrij Jaskin
STL 2019 2nd
STL 2020 1st, conditional on Panarin re-signing

Or


Artemi Panarin, signed at 9M


Jordan Kyrou/Robby Fabbri
Klim Kostin
Dmitrij Jaskin
STL 2019 2nd
STL 2020 1st

No and no.

 

[KevinRedkey]

As long as FLA gets to discuss an extension with Panarin beforehand, I'd do this as both sides TBH

 

[Rolo]

Columbus wouldn't do Borgstrom + Bjugstad + futures???


Bjorkstrand - Dubois - Atkinson
Foligno - Wennberg - Bjugstad
Jenner - Borgstrom - Anderson
Milano - Dubinsky - Nash (#20)
Duclair

 

[Sota Popinski]

Can't believe people are saying Panarin is only slightly better. He's one of the best wingers in the game. Dude is elite and competes hard in all zones. Him and Barkov would be unreal.

Huberdeau just played his 24 year old season. He had 69 points. Panarin came into the league at 24 and had 77 points. People seem to forget that Panarin didn't come into the league as a teenager. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that Huberdeau outscores Panarin next year.

 

[BearsofBeantown]

This one is tough, as Huby has shown he can play better in the defensive zone and had more of a 200 foot game than Panarin did (marginally but enough). You combine that with the cap friendly contract he is on.....you will be hard pressed to see that move happen.

If we compare last year stats for ease of numbers of the 69pts (Huby) and 82 (Panarin) - if you take the point production and assume Panarin will get 8 to 9.5 million on his next contract are you willing to pay 2.1 to 3.6 million more a season for 13pts?

Not to mention, should Panarin lose interest in playing for Florida he appears to be a bit "fussy" vs Huby who appears to be more dedicated to the cause like player.

 

[rinne]

Huberdeau is a fine player but I don’t think Florida fans realize (as I did not until watching him all last year) what kind of talent we are talking about. I would trade two Huberdeaus to get a guy like this on my squad long term — it really sucks we are going to lose him.

"Slightly better" is bit of underselling of Panarin. But saying Panarin is worth "two Huberdeaus" is awfully overvaluing Panarin / undervaluing Huberdeau. Reality is somewhere between.

Huby is 60+ point winger. Hit 69 points even when clearly wore down towards the end of the season. Huby wasn't Panthers' only top-6 player whose production dipped towards the end. They all seemed tired towards the end after playing too much per game. Put I'd say Huby is 60, 65+ point winger who can likely hit around 75. And Huby can play defense. That right there is a first line winger quality. More in a complementary style than driver but a firstliner nevertheless. In a good contract as Huby makes 5,9 million for years to come.

So how much of difference is between Huby and Panarin? Panarin will get that 8-9,5 million per year. He deserves that. It is 2,1-3,6 millions / year more than Huberdeau gets. That 2-ish millions sounds right unless Panarin goes to different level and hitting at least close to 100. Then it could be more.

But as stated before. Huberdeau is probably better player than Columbus should expect to get back. Not with his contract situation. Not when people seem to believe that Panarin wants out. Also as stated: It isn't certain that Florida would be better team after this kind of trade. Even when knowing that Panarin is better player. Huby is good enough with contract that has good/great value. Huby already has the chemistry with other young stars in Panthers' roster. And those 2,1-3,6 millions/year (or whatever the difference will be after Panarin's new contract) could be used to team's need which are in defense and in bottom-6.

The difference between Huberdeau and Panarin in trade value is nowhere near "Huberdeau".

 

[Drake1588]

Remaining term is everything in this hypothetical. Panarin hasn't any, and whatever damage control he and his agent have tried to do, the consensus is that they have pre-selected a handful of free agency destinations. This is going to be a very difficult trade to consummate for Jarmo, and the return isn't likely to approach Huberdeau.

A young established gem like Huberdeau, signed to term on a great deal, has outsized value. Panarin's a better player, fractionally, but that is offset by the contracts. I don't think this proposal gives Florida pause at all.

 

[pb1300]

"Slightly better" is bit of underselling of Panarin. But saying Panarin is worth "two Huberdeaus" is awfully overvaluing Panarin / undervaluing Huberdeau. Reality is somewhere between.

Huby is 60+ point winger. Hit 69 points even when clearly wore down towards the end of the season. Huby wasn't Panthers' only top-6 player whose production dipped towards the end. They all seemed tired towards the end after playing too much per game. Put I'd say Huby is 60, 65+ point winger who can likely hit around 75. And Huby can play defense. That right there is a first line winger quality. More in a complementary style than driver but a firstliner nevertheless. In a good contract as Huby makes 5,9 million for years to come.

So how much of difference is between Huby and Panarin? Panarin will get that 8-9,5 million per year. He deserves that. It is 2,1-3,6 millions / year more than Huberdeau gets. That 2-ish millions sounds right unless Panarin goes to different level and hitting at least close to 100. Then it could be more.

But as stated before. Huberdeau is probably better player than Columbus should expect to get back. Not with his contract situation. Not when people seem to believe that Panarin wants out. Also as stated: It isn't certain that Florida would be better team after this kind of trade. Even when knowing that Panarin is better player. Huby is good enough with contract that has good/great value. Huby already has the chemistry with other young stars in Panthers' roster. And those 2,1-3,6 millions/year (or whatever the difference will be after Panarin's new contract) could be used to team's need which are in defense and in bottom-6.

The difference between Huberdeau and Panarin in trade value is nowhere near "Huberdeau".

Huberdeau also dropped to the 2nd line, where certain wingers go to die, for a good portion of the season. He isnt the winger that needs to be on a line centered by Trocheck, but Boughner broke up the top line to spread the wealth a little bit. I do think that Huberdeau is a 65 point winger, with good defense, and elite playmaking ability.

 

[Beezeral]

Not if it means missing the playoffs this season.

That alone is worth more than what they could get for him.

If Panarin leaves, the team will be in sore need of an elite forward. They won't be bad enough to get that through the draft. The only way would be to use their cap space and go for one in free agency. But one won't sign with Columbus unless they are consistently making the playoffs.

So they gotta go for it to preserve the image of being a playoff team. That way, if Panarin leaves, they may be attractive to someone else. And it will help keep the talent they have already acquired.

So you think its better to be a team that makes the playoffs then loses its best player for nothing? How does that make the team look better to other free agents. Lets just assume that Panarin was a FA this offseason and left for another team. How do the Blue Jackets look better to a guy like Tavares being a team that squeaked into the playoffs and then lost its best player compared to a team like the Panthers for example who just missed the playoffs but have a bunch of top prospects ready to crack the NHL lineup without losing any key players. IMO it's pretty obvious which team is more attractive in terms of on ice product.

PS I used the Panthers as the other team in this scenario because I see the 2019 CBJ having a similar roster to the Panthers of this year if they trade Panarin for upper tier NHL ready prospects.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

So you think its better to be a team that makes the playoffs then loses its best player for nothing? How does that make the team look better to other free agents. Lets just assume that Panarin was a FA this offseason and left for another team. How do the Blue Jackets look better to a guy like Tavares being a team that squeaked into the playoffs and then lost its best player compared to a team like the Panthers for example who just missed the playoffs but have a bunch of top prospects ready to crack the NHL lineup without losing any key players. IMO it's pretty obvious which team is more attractive in terms of on ice product.

You assume that the Jackets "squeak" into the playoffs, a very possible result, but not written in stone. Your post also seems to suggest another early exit.

You may have read some stuff about the Jackets being the only team in the league never to win a playoff series. Giving yourself the best chance at that short term is more valuable than trading Panarin for a return that's below asking price, just because "you have to."

As we commodify the way we view the league and its players, we have failed to figure out how to consider opportunities for results.

 

[Crede777]

You assume that the Jackets "squeak" into the playoffs, a very possible result, but not written inn stone. Your post also seems to suggest another early exit.

You may have read some stuff about the Jackets being the only team in the league never to win a playoff series. Giving yourself the best chance at that short term is more valuable than trading Panarin for a return that's below asking price, just because "you have to."

As we commodify the way we view the league and its player, we have failed to figure out how to consider opportunities for results.

We also have to consider how the other players on the team would feel if they are working hard and in a playoff position and suddenly the team trades away its best forward simply because they’re afraid of losing him for nothing. Especially if it is in return for a 40 point player or a package of futures.

That would be quite upsetting and unfair to them.

 

[Toe Pick]

Hyperbole much? Panarin is an excellent player. He’s one of the best wingers in the NHL, but you are going overboard here.

Yeah I’ll give you it is some hyperbole but if I’m Florida and I can move a Huberdeau for a signed Panarin that is an EASY decision. Look at who Panarin played with and the dude still put up crazy points — and most when it mattered during the push when he posted 34 points in his last 21 games. That is called putting a team on your back. Guy is a flat out stud.

Getting Huberdeau in return wouldn’t be a horrible move for the Jackets but Florida would win this trade hands down. Then again I’ve long ago concluded the Jackets aren’t gonna win a trade like this but hopefully they salvage a decent return.

 

[Beezeral]

You assume that the Jackets "squeak" into the playoffs, a very possible result, but not written in stone. Your post also seems to suggest another early exit.

It doesn't really matter what we assume. Because the fact is that regardless of what the Jackets do next year, Panarin walking out the door is going to hang over their heads.

Giving yourself the best chance at that short term is more valuable than trading Panarin for a return that's below asking price, just because "you have to."

Please describe how the short term gain of a playoff series win followed by immediately losing your best player for nothing is better then trading him now and giving yourself the best chance to be good the following years because I don't see it.


CBJ isn't an old team. They have a bunch of younger talent. Their window to be a competitor doesn't close in the next year or two. I don't see how going all in for this year for what seems to be a second round exit as a realistic ceiling is worth it.

We also have to consider how the other players on the team would feel if they are working hard and in a playoff position and suddenly the team trades away its best forward simply because they’re afraid of losing him for nothing. Especially if it is in return for a 40 point player or a package of futures.

That would be quite upsetting and unfair to them.

It would absolutely suck to see Panarin traded in the middle of a playoff push. That's why the best move IMO is to trade him now.

 

[Beezeral]

Yeah I’ll give you it is some hyperbole but if I’m Florida and I can move a Huberdeau for a signed Panarin that is an EASY decision. Look at who Panarin played with and the dude still put up crazy points — and most when it mattered during the push when he posted 34 points in his last 21 games. That is called putting a team on your back. Guy is a flat out stud.

Getting Huberdeau in return wouldn’t be a horrible move for the Jackets but Florida would win this trade hands down. Then again I’ve long ago concluded the Jackets aren’t gonna win a trade like this but hopefully they salvage a decent return.

This is the nature of the beast. The team trading the best player rarely wins these trades.

 

[Crede777]

It would absolutely suck to see Panarin traded in the middle of a playoff push. That's why the best move IMO is to trade him now.

The Jackets are currently in the middle of a playoff push because, while the season has yet to start, the expectation is that they will be a playoff team provided they don't make any major moves to their roster.

That means I don't think Panarin gets moved unless either:
1. Someone gives up a player who can replace about 60 of his 82 points, or
2. The Jackets start the season poorly.

Because I doubt #1 happens, I think the Jackets sit on Panarin and see how the season goes. Which, conveniently enough, seems to be what is actually happening.

That approach certainly has substantial risk to it. If the Jackets start out poorly, I would expect that Panarin's value won't go up and could go down. Additionally, you always run the risk that Panarin could get seriously injured which means they don't get any benefit from him and end up losing him.

On the other hand, maybe Panarin agrees to a sign-and-trade or he decides he wants to stay.

But those risks are by all accounts fairly remote at this time. And that's how you judge decisions - by the information you have at the time the decision is made rather than in hindsight.

That means they are running the likely risk that they will end up losing him for nothing a year from now. But that's the price of being a competitive playoff team rather than a team like the Islanders last year. Had the Jackets missed the playoffs last season and didn't figure to be one of the 3 or 4 best teams in the Metro, then yes they should move him for the best offer.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Please describe how the short term gain of a playoff series win followed by immediately losing your best player for nothing is better then trading him now and giving yourself the best chance to be good the following years because I don't see it.

A trade that returns less than the asking price may or may not give the team "the best chance to be good the following years." The notion that any return is better than none is widely accepted but I don't buy that it's just blanket applicable across the board.

To be clear, I think the team should trade him, or at least strongly pursue it. But I don't think a pennies on the dollar return (again, every possible return would have to be evaluated on its own merit here) is worth it.

 

[Beezeral]

A trade that returns less than the asking price may or may not give the team "the best chance to be good the following years." The notion that any return is better than none is widely accepted but I don't buy that it's just blanket applicable across the board.

I fail to see how this scenario doesn't apply.

To be clear, I think the team should trade him, or at least strongly pursue it. But I don't think a pennies on the dollar return (again, every possible return would have to be evaluated on its own merit here) is worth it.

It's not going to be pennies on the dollar. The reality is that nothing is known outside of the terms "prospects and picks" A team like the Panthers could have shown up with both Borgstrom and Tippett and that fits under that description.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I fail to see how this scenario doesn't apply.

I can see that.

It's not going to be pennies on the dollar. The reality is that nothing is known outside of the terms "prospects and picks" A team like the Panthers could have shown up with both Borgstrom and Tippett and that fits under that description.

You say it's not going to be pennies on the dollar then you say nothing is known...

 

[Beezeral]

I can see that.

well you haven't really given a reason why.

You say it's not going to be pennies on the dollar then you say nothing is known...

because it's a top 10 winger in the NHL who is 26 years old. Even with a narrow list, a team is going to pony up for him because players like him at his age only become available once every decade or so.