Speculation: How will the Ducks do in 2019-2020 season?
- Thread starter bsu
- Start date
I never understand these analyst types who seem to think that if you have an aging franchise or elite 1C, you can't rebuild without shipping them away. Most rebuilding teams don't find adequate replacements until a couple of years down the line, and the experience brought by seniority really does matter.
It's a far better move to let a player of Getz's ilk to just get older and move down the lineup whilst mentoring his successors than it is to look solely for draft picks and cap space and ship them out.
It's a far better move to let a player of Getz's ilk to just get older and move down the lineup whilst mentoring his successors than it is to look solely for draft picks and cap space and ship them out.
Deuce22
Registered User
I don't understand the narrative that Ducks are "rebuilding." Goalie is young and elite. Defensive core is young. Forwards with the exception of Getzlaf and Henrique are mostly young. Most of these players have been part of division winning teams and have had playoff experience (Gibson, Fowler, Lindholm, Manson, Rakell, Silfverberg, Ritchie, Kase, Henrique, Getzlaf). Rebuilding to me would be trading or selling off some or most of these players, not just buying out a severely declining Corey Perry.
- Apr 9, 2012
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Yeah I know. It’s strange. Last season, I think everyone would agree the team severely underachieved, and a ton of players had career worst performances. Yet, even with all that, were it not for TWO horrendously long losing streaks, they would have actually made the playoffs. And it wouldn’t have taken some sort of heroic effort. Instead of losing 12 in a row or whatever the hell they did, they would’ve needed to win 3 or 4. Not exactly asking for a lot. Granted, it would’ve been because the West was a little weaker than normal, but they would have qualified.
With a new coach, and with the young players getting valuable experience, I have a hard time seeing the team being worse than last season, a season in which they arguably should have gotten at least a wild card.
It's not really a rebuild when there's been no roster turnover and the only significant moves are losing two declining veterans. Re-tool is a better term. They aren't an older team anymore, but it's not like 80% of the roster is young and inexperienced.
Plus, Getzlaf is retiring a Duck. And if there's even a thought he wouldn't, they aren't going to be thinking about that next year.
Plus, Getzlaf is retiring a Duck. And if there's even a thought he wouldn't, they aren't going to be thinking about that next year.
branmuffin17
Registered User
That preview forgot about Hakanpaa. Like, didn't even mention him, even though he's signed one-way. Granted, maybe he doesn't even work out and gets sent down/claimed off waivers, but for now, I think he's slotted in above Mahura.
GeraldDucksworth
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2018
- 174
- 86
Rebuild. Retool. This isn’t the team that won the Pacific Division year after year.
I don’t think Hakanpää will be subject to waivers this season.
Waivers FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Frosted Tips
...
Just hand out red pills to everyone at the beginning of the training camp and brace yourself for the onslaught of alphas throughout the lineup.
He signed his ELC with the Blues in 2012 when he was 20 so according to the table, he was exempt from waivers only for three years after that. Am I missing something? CapFriendly also lists him as waiver eligible.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I just looked at capfriendly. Jani doesn't have that green circle with the arrow pointing down to identify he's waiver exempt.
A step back today means giant leaps tomorrow. The Ducks were awful last year at times with a dinosaur coach and scheme and a dinosaur roster. Getting rid of Carlyle will probably be worth 4-5 wins by itself. Getting rid of Perry and Kesler being out injured, will probably be a slight net positive. Both were ineffective when on the ice and no longer the players they once were.
Today's game is about speed and youth and the Ducks are on their way towards transitioning that way. The Ducks already have a stud franchise in prime goaltender, a rising #1 dman in Lindholm with some solid 2nd pairing types with Fowler and Manson, and some promising young forwards on the roster with more on the way. I currently see them as a 40% chance of making the playoffs this season. They'll be improved, but not enough to make the playoffs. However, starting next season they'll have another window for consistent playoffs if all the young forwards develop as expected and Murray plug holes.
Today's game is about speed and youth and the Ducks are on their way towards transitioning that way. The Ducks already have a stud franchise in prime goaltender, a rising #1 dman in Lindholm with some solid 2nd pairing types with Fowler and Manson, and some promising young forwards on the roster with more on the way. I currently see them as a 40% chance of making the playoffs this season. They'll be improved, but not enough to make the playoffs. However, starting next season they'll have another window for consistent playoffs if all the young forwards develop as expected and Murray plug holes.
NORiculous
Registered User
Not So Mighty
Enjoy your freedom, you wintertimer.
No one really knows. We have too many right wingers, so Sprong is likely on the 4th line with some PP time.
Deuce22
Registered User
My expectations:
-Get out of the doghouse
-Score goals
-Act like he cares in his own zone
Addition by subtraction with Kesler no doubt. Was a liability, and the dude sadly just can't play anymore due to the hip injuries/surgeries . As per Perry, I think he is going to have a decent rebound year with Dallas and with a 1.5 million cap hit it is little risk for them. Was not happy about the buyout. Even though he was no longer playing up to his contract with the Ducks, still think he'd be effective here. The buy out cap hit next year just seems like a lot.
Having voted for the "miss playoffs and be in top 5 draft pick" option, I am admittedly as pessimistic about this season as anyone else here. I find it surprising nearly 70% of voters think we'll be playoff contenders, if not in the playoffs. There's just so many question marks surrounding this team and that's not even considering the improvements made by other western conference teams.
Does Gibson continue his stellar play?
How does Miller, age 39, fare this season?
Does the Lindholm/Manson pairing build off the success of previous seasons?
Does one of Larsson/Guhle finally earn the open top-4 spot next to Fowler?
Who brings stability to our third pairing?
Does Getzlaf still have a revolving door of underperforming wingers?
Does Rakell bounce back?
Was Silfverberg's hot hand the product of a contract season?
What becomes of Henrique as Steel ascends the center depth chart?
Is this the season Sprong finally takes the next step?
Does reuniting with Eakins help Ritchie play to his strengths?
Will Kase stay healthy?
How does the logjam of waiver exempt wingers -- Troy, Jones, Comtois, Sherwood -- sort itself out?
What defensive system will Eakins employ?
How will Eakins distribute minutes amongst the four forward lines?
Assuming a majority of these questions have favorable outcomes, I still don't see us coming anywhere close to the playoffs. While we're in a holding position waiting for these scenarios to play out, more western conference teams who previously missed the playoffs have improved (Arizona, Chicago, Vancouver) than playoff teams who have gotten worse on paper (Winnipeg). Lets not forget how weak the western conference, particularly the pacific division, was last season. Odds are the point threshold for making the playoffs will be higher this season.
Hot take: I think Fowler is a Montreal Canadien by the trade deadline.
Does Gibson continue his stellar play?
How does Miller, age 39, fare this season?
Does the Lindholm/Manson pairing build off the success of previous seasons?
Does one of Larsson/Guhle finally earn the open top-4 spot next to Fowler?
Who brings stability to our third pairing?
Does Getzlaf still have a revolving door of underperforming wingers?
Does Rakell bounce back?
Was Silfverberg's hot hand the product of a contract season?
What becomes of Henrique as Steel ascends the center depth chart?
Is this the season Sprong finally takes the next step?
Does reuniting with Eakins help Ritchie play to his strengths?
Will Kase stay healthy?
How does the logjam of waiver exempt wingers -- Troy, Jones, Comtois, Sherwood -- sort itself out?
What defensive system will Eakins employ?
How will Eakins distribute minutes amongst the four forward lines?
Assuming a majority of these questions have favorable outcomes, I still don't see us coming anywhere close to the playoffs. While we're in a holding position waiting for these scenarios to play out, more western conference teams who previously missed the playoffs have improved (Arizona, Chicago, Vancouver) than playoff teams who have gotten worse on paper (Winnipeg). Lets not forget how weak the western conference, particularly the pacific division, was last season. Odds are the point threshold for making the playoffs will be higher this season.
Hot take: I think Fowler is a Montreal Canadien by the trade deadline.
TopShelfWaterBottle
Registered
- Mar 16, 2014
- 3,379
- 1,369
Unless we pick up another dman I don’t awe it we just signed him to a huge contract
I mean, I guess it depends on your definition of "close." They missed by 13 points last season. Let's say the bar gets five points higher.
They'd need to pick up 8 wins over last season, a season in which pretty much everything went wrong and we have reasonable evidence to suggest the possibility that a lot of it is coaching.
I don't think it's hard to imagine some of those questions having positive answers that weren't there last year and gaining a few wins. How many do they need to gain for it to be "close" to a playoff spot? 4? 6?
Is this team with proper coaching four wins better than last year's team, even without any breakout years from guys like Terry? I don't think that's a stretch.
Now that it's the eve of the start of Anaheim's regular season, let's revisit this conversation. Comtois, Guhle, Jones, Larsson, Lundestrom, Terry, and Steel all made the opening night roster, though a few won't play at the same time. Growing pains are to be expected and it's not guaranteed the veteran players bounce back as we hope and expect. Anaheim's sources of optimism are all internal while most Pacific/Conference foes improved externally as well.
I'll admit my original guess of "Miss playoffs and be in top 5 draft pick" is perhaps overly pessimistic but I remain skeptical of this young team. I continue to think we're going to look better in the "eye test" but finish lower than we did last season.
I'll admit my original guess of "Miss playoffs and be in top 5 draft pick" is perhaps overly pessimistic but I remain skeptical of this young team. I continue to think we're going to look better in the "eye test" but finish lower than we did last season.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
The Hockey News has their top-10 Calder Trophy candidates and Steel was ranked 9th. link
That article was published today, Oct. 2, 2019. I wrote a fanpost article about Steel being a possible Calder Trophy candidate on Sept. 9th, 2019: Is Sam Steel a Possible Trophy Calder Candidate? Woot to Steel being on the legacy media radar! I just hope he'll be healthy all season to increase his chances of being in the Calder race.
That article was published today, Oct. 2, 2019. I wrote a fanpost article about Steel being a possible Calder Trophy candidate on Sept. 9th, 2019: Is Sam Steel a Possible Trophy Calder Candidate? Woot to Steel being on the legacy media radar! I just hope he'll be healthy all season to increase his chances of being in the Calder race.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Although 26 games is a small sample, we're almost running the same roster that made a significant turnaround when GM Murray took over as head coach. We ran a 14-11-1 record with a 7-5-0 record against playoff teams. And that was without Kase and Comtois available.
Talent-wise, the Ducks do possess a playoff team, based upon how the team turned itself around under Murray as coach. But we're running a new head coach. So we might be awkward to begin the season. Hopefully, they can gel sooner than later because every point matters. Yet, replacing the slow Kesler with a faster Steel or Lundestrom is a significant upgrade down the middle.
A lot of possible success depends on health. We have depth at forwards and in net. We don't have great talent depth on the blue line. We just have to hope that Benoit and Hakanpaa continue to develop in the AHL to give us fans less anxiety. All of our chips are at the NHL level with Lindholm-Manson, Fowler, Guhle, and Larsson.
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