Deuce22
Registered User
Is this what Blues fans were saying at midseason last year?
Speculation: How will the Ducks do in 2019-2020 season?
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sowcufucakky
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I think you are lacking a sense of scope in this perspective. ::: eyes beading :::
You wrote, "Get young, faster, get draft picks."
Hmmm... This process started four drafts ago in the 2016 NHL draft as the Ducks double dipped in the first round to draft F Jones and C Steel. They double dipped again in the first round in 2019 with C Zegras and LW Tracey. How did they acquire the extra first round draft picks? Steel came via trading away G Andersen. Why did we trade away Andersen? Because the Ducks had drafted Gibson. In 2019, Tracey was had because the Ducks traded away D Montour; the Ducks also came away with prospect D Guhle in the Montour trade.
F Terry and D Larsson came from the 2015 draft. Comtois in the 2017 draft. Lundestrom in the 2018 draft. Sprong came from trading away D Pettersson, the other defenseman drafted with Montour in the 2014 Draft. The other 2014 drafted players who made it to the NHL were F Ritchie and F Kase. (In case you're counting, that hitting on 4 out of 5 prospects in the 2014 draft.) There's also another skyrocketing goalie prospect in Dostal, from the 2018 draft.
Right now, GM Bob actually is trying to keep some of the kids down in the AHL. Last year the following prospects saw some time at the NHL level (Ritchie and Kase aren't NHL prospects, but Terry is b/c he stayed four years in college): C Steel, C Lundestrom, F Comtois, F Terry, F Sherwood, D Larsson, F Jones, and D Guhle.
A projected line-up
Rakell-Getz-Silf
Ritchie-Rico-Kase
Sprong-Steel-Terry
Shore-Grant-Rowney
Lindholm-Manson
Fowler-Larsson
MDZ-Hakanpaa
Gibson
Miller
All those in bold are young or youths. Lundestrom, Comtois, Sherwood, Jones, and Guhle will be in the AHL. C Zegras could be coming to the pro scene the following year. LW Tracey and C Groulx could be coming the year afterwards. D LaCombe and D Thrun will be available, at the lastest, in four years.
The Ducks will be starting off the season having a superfluous amount of centers readily available. The fourth line is made up of all centers. So there won't be a need to rush any of the center prospects if they can't beat out any of the fourth line centers.
Here are the following are players on cusp or are starting their prime years: Ritchie, Kase, Lindholm, Manson, Fowler, and Gibson.
If there were no expansion Vegas team, then the Ducks could still have had D Theodore.
As I stated earlier, you have no sense of scope. You don't realize how well GM Bob has constructed the present and future all along to where there's no need for doom and gloom. Under Bob, the Ducks had a winning record of 14-11-1. After nine games in, Bob's team took off like a rocket as they finished with an 11-5-1 record, scoring 57 goals in 17 games, or a rate of 3.35 goals per game. Also under Bob, the team was 7 - 4 against playoff teams. Long term planning isn't admired much.
For not seeing a top-5 pick in the past 14 seasons, it's pretty impressive for the Ducks. Bob hasn't had any top-5 picks under his reign. He's kept the team mostly competitive as his teams have participated in six out of the last seven playoffs, winning 5 contiguous Pacific Division titles.
You have a "doom & gloom generalization" rhetoric. That rhetoric is why we have the mass legacy media. The mass media don't possess nuance. (remember, all they knew of Lindholm was he has the capacity to be in Tour de France with his endurance performance at the combine. Yet, on HF boards, you can find those who watched him in person give in-depth reviews of Lindholm.) While there still exists plenty of unknowns into the future, there are a lot of support and depth at coaching and player personnel. The fact that a GM turned first time coach had a winning coaching record when he took over the Ducks should make fans believe that last year was just a hiccup than a start of a collapse. The Ducks have been getting younger, faster, and got more draft picks. But the Ducks don't need more draft picks when they hit on more draft picks than other franchises (there's an article on the web for this). It's an odd world today b/c for the longest time all we Ducks fans were accustomed in the draft were finding good defensemen and netminders. Going into 2019-20 season, the Ducks are filled with a lot of highly talented forwards at their disposal. And there's still more coming.
I hope this scope has enlightened you and your need for change. It's already happening... for a while now. Gotta love nuance, long term planning, and a great scouting staff!
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GeraldDucksworth
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2018
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This example stinks and makes absolutely zero sense. The dude mentioned staying put and finding a diamond in the rough or signing a killer free agent.
The St Louis Blues traded for Ryan O’Reilly in the off-season. They also signed Tyler Bozak, Patrick Maroon, and David Perron. They made their team better with proven NHL veterans.
Also, the Ducks are nowhere near the Blues of last year. The Blues were supposed to compete. They just played like trash for a couple months.
The Ducks are supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. They’ve made zero free agent signings of note.
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Deuce22
Registered User
It makes plenty of sense. When a team struggles, this type of fan wants to tank and go for a high draft pick. Ducks win five division titles in a row, have one bad season, and these fans want them to blow up the team and try to get the next Crosby. Blues played horribly for half a season, but instead of doing what the doom and gloom fans wanted, they stayed the course and won the Cup. Ducks plan seems to be to build with young players, eliminating vets who are no longer productive. They should stay the course with the "children," not panic and sign overpriced FA's or sell everyone off in order to tank.
Yes we should sell everyone off in order to tank. Do you see any of the prospects getting more than 45 points a season?
dracom
Registered User
Yes, Zegras, Steel, Terry, Comtois (darkhorse in Sprong) are guys I expect to produce more than 45 points a season. And considering they are potential top 6 guys, that works. If the other prospects can reach 45 points on the 3/4th line that’s fantastic.
GeraldDucksworth
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- Sep 29, 2018
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Anaheim4ever
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Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I did a split of two prospects, Terry and Steel. By coincidence, then both were brought up the first time in the NHL, it was at the beginning of the season. They were returned to the AHL. But they were brought back up after the new year.
| Steel | |||||
| Games | when | G | A | Pts | pts/g |
| 13 | 2018 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.23 |
| 9 | 2019 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.89 |
| 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.50 |
If we extrapolate the 9 games upon Steel's second call-up to 82 games, then the production could be 72.98 points. I suppose that would identify Steel as a prospect who can earn more than 45 points a season, especially since he's a center.
| Terry | |||||
| Games | when | G | A | Pts | pts/g |
| 6 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 26 | 2019 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.50 |
| 32 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.41 |
With Terry's second stint, he put up 0.5. Extrapolate that production over 82 games and Terry will project to 41 points. That isn't far away from the 45 points a season.
Now, onto a far smaller sample is with Comtois and his 10 game stint with the Ducks last year before he got injured and then promptly returned to his junior team. (Thank goodness b/c he won't be available to be selected by an expansion draft, IIRC from what GM Bob said.)
| Comtois | |||||
| Games | when | G | A | Pts | Pts/g |
| 10 | 2018 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.70 |
Extrapolating Comtois' 0.7 points per game average to 82 games and he is projected to earn 57.4 points. I suppose that makes a second prospect that has the possibility of earning more than 45 points a season. To add more depth, Comtois terrorized his junior team after getting a taste of the NHL. All he did in his QMJHL was put up 48 points in only 25 games. Afterwards, he was the captain for team Canada U20, where Comtois put up 6 points in five games. Those 6 points breaks down into 5g and 1a. I wanted to share that breakdown to reveal he's a point driver than a rider with all those goals.
All three prospects denoted here and their stats in the excel boxes were all at the NHL level. This identification is to refute any "generalizations" or "confusion" that the productions were not against NHL teams. Also, with Terry and Steel, I did the splits because it reveals improvement within the season, which also overlaps when GM Bob took over coaching duties in the final 26 games where the Ducks finished 14-11-1. Bob didn't even have Comtois. Bob didn't have Kase either. Kase only played 30 games, but earned 20 points. If we include Kase as another asset b/c he was injured for most of the season last year, then we can extrapolate his 20 points in 30 games production to 82 games would be 54.6 points.
I hope sharing you these nuanced information can help remove thoughts of generalization. But seriously, you're making me do all this research is making me more hyped up for this coming season than I really should be. hahahahhaha
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
The more you write, the more you solidify that the team can only compete if they have superstars.
Last year, the Ducks had only one player that notched over 45 points. That player was Getzlaf with 48 points. We had only four players notch over 40 points in Getz, Silf, Rakell, and Rico. Can you imagine adding three more players into that mix with Kase, Steel, and Terry? (I posted their extrapolated point projections in a previous comment above.) Then you have Comtois just vying for a spot at the NHL level as well. These are players that can help today.
Zegras is a year or more away. Zegras has already hinted at staying in college for a season. BTW, it's not like players ever end up going to college for 4 years and sign with their drafted clubs. Schultz was long ago. Karma happened as we were able to draft G Andersen when he re-entered the draft after not signing with the Hurricanes. Then later we drafted G Gibson, which we ended up trading Andersen to the Leafs. In that trade, we received C Steel and LW Comtois. Okay, now back to college guys. Did you know that both D Welinski and F Terry signed with the Ducks after spending 4-years in college?
Now, as for points, let's focus on goals scored last year - specifically, GM Bob's last 17 games as coach. Did you know the team scored 57 goals in those concluding 17 games, which included 8 playoff teams? That goal scoring rate was 3.35 goals per game. With that production rate, the Ducks would be the fifth highest goal scoring team in the league.
Gotta love nuance as it's the best remedy for extremes. = )
JabbaJabba
Registered User
Last season was a mess for many reasons and I wouldn't use it as an indicator for anything. Once Carlyle left, the team got better and I expect the Ducks to do better offensively next season with Eakins as the coach. His teams usually score a lot but are not that good in the defensive end. So the Ducks might very well have plenty of 45 point scorers next season.
Anaheim4ever
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- Jun 15, 2017
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I think Steel will score more goals than Terry next season and Terry with more assists than Steel.
It would be nice if Steel turns into a goal scoring center, to compliment Zegras being a pure playmaker & Lundestrom seeming like a playmaker as well.
It would be nice if Steel turns into a goal scoring center, to compliment Zegras being a pure playmaker & Lundestrom seeming like a playmaker as well.
Deuce22
Registered User
Hockey games are won by outscoring the other team. Not by scoring a lot of goals. A 1-0 win is the same as an 8-6 one. A combination of goal scoring and goal prevention is what a GM/coach should be striving for. I'd rather have 5-6 guys scoring 45+ pts. than a McDavid and a bunch of stiffs. My hope is that the Ducks can run 4 effective lines that score some and do a good job of dominating possession. And that the D and goalies can keep the puck out of our net. That is the model Ducks have a chance to build in a couple of years.
As we keep saying, there's a lot about this team we just *don't know* because we can't quantify how much the Carlyle debacle effected the down years (and yes I'm using effected right there).
It makes sense for the team to not commit to any major moves until we get a real chance to see how much our veterans can bounce back.
It makes sense for the team to not commit to any major moves until we get a real chance to see how much our veterans can bounce back.
Yes. A win is a win. Hockey is a low scoring game. When you get one, it means a lot more than basketball. So even if you are winning by one, and the score is 1-0, but you are unable to convert the other times, the other team has ways to respond and catch up. However, if you are up 5-2, the other team may be demoralized to even mount a comeback. That is why scoring goals is important. And doing so in bunches are even more beneficial.
DavidBL
Registered User
Sure 5-1 can be demoralizong. But 5-4 isn't. It is even less so then 1-0. If a team can get 4 on you its a lot easier to think 1 more is in reach.
But if you are finish games consistently at 1-0, it means if a team gets one on you, you are losing the game.
DavidBL
Registered User
No. It means you might go to OT. And lets be real here. As bad as the Ducks were last year they still scored more than 1 goal a game and gave up more than 0. I'm not going to sit here and say scoring goals isn't important but at the end of the day its just about scoring more than the other team.
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Anaheim4ever
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- Jun 15, 2017
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I think Lindholm was progressing well under Boudreau in his development, Carlyle really effected the performance of teams Dmen.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
You "hope" the other team maybe demoralized to mount a comeback?
I'm an MLB Angels fan. The current GM focuses on offense than pitching (defense). It's year four this year. For the past three years his teams haven't hit over .500 record. Currently, the Angels are 60-63 (which is below .500). The Angels have a top-10 offense with 620 runs scored (let's say goals). Their pitching (defense) has allowed 652 runs (let's say goals allowed). The defense ranked 25th out of 30 teams. That's a negative goal differential. There's still 39 more games left! They're on pace to allow 858 runs allowed! This GM has had his team allow over 700 runs scored in the past three years and it appears to be going that same way.
The previous GM put a premium on pitching (defense). His team went over .500 three out of four years and won the AL West division. This GM has had his team go over 700 runs scored once in his four years as GM.
You need both to be very successful. But if you're to fix one for better results, then you work on defense.
| 2018-19 Ducks season | ||||||||||||
| Coach | Games | W | L | OTL | Pts | GF | GF/G | Rank | GA | GA/G | Rank | |
| Total | 82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 | 196 | 2.39 | 31st | 248 | 3.02 | 19th | |
| Bob | 26 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 29 | 72 | 2.77 | 21st | 69 | 2.65 | 5th | |
| RC | 56 | 21 | 36 | 9 | 51 | 124 | 2.21 | 31st | 179 | 3.20 | 22nd |
I put in the ranking of each coach's production with respect to the overall rankings in the league for GF/G and GA/G. Note that although Bob only increased scoring by 0.56 GF/G, his team defense decreased the GA/G by 0.55. That's a whole goal improvement in goal for and goals allowed. That alone allowed Bob's team to have a winning record. I prefer low scoring games than shootouts b/c if your team is the one with the better defense, then you have more control of the game with a lead. Of course, you'd want both a good offense and a good defense. Bob revealed that our defensive game was very good last year under his tenure as coach.
If you look at Bob's UFA record from the last couple of years, I'd say that's just addition by inaction...
1 - As far as I remember, there is no precedent of an NCAA draftee taken in the top-10 sticking around in college for 4 years. The vast majority of them play there for a year and then they're done. Besides, we have Zegras' NHL rights for 4 years -- even if he were to set said precedent, we can still trade his rights if need be.
The guys who spend 4 years taking the college route to become UFAs are usually late bloomers, who get taken later in the draft. Schultz (2nd round 2008, #43 overall) is the highest pick in recent memory to become UFA, IIRC.
2 - I'd much rather have the scoring spread out evenly over multiple guys than have a 100+ point producer. Teams that are top heavy usually don't do much in the playoffs -- see Tampa, Calgary, ...
Last year's Colorado team ended up being a bit of an anomaly though, mostly because their top guys ended up being vastly superior to Calgary's best players. COL also took SJ to the brink, but I don't think they would've gotten past the Blues either.
KaseMeOutside
Based
- Oct 18, 2011
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The blues were a good team sunk ny bad goaltending
Anaheim was a bad team carried by good goaltending.
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