Speculation: How will the Ducks do in 2019-2020 season?

[MMC]

Bumping this thread as I feel it's interesting to look back on. It was pretty even around the board.

 

[Boo Boo]

well we finished bottom five and pick 6th so 37 people were close. Next year I would bet that we're in a fairly similar position in the standings but there is plenty of opportunity for personal growth up and down the lineup.

 

[bsu]

Lol I called it, we suck!

 

[Leonardo87]

Lol I called it, we suck!

I was too optimistic. Will then say they will miss playoffs next year finish bottom 10, and then they will end up making it to the WCF. Lol.

 

[dracom]

we were pretty close to making the 1st round of playoffs technically...

 

[Hockey Duckie]

we were pretty close to making the 1st round of playoffs technically...

If the season wasn't shut down early, then I fear we would have had a lower draft ranking. The influx of talent at the TDL really gave the Ducks a boost and we moved faster as a unit. We did some of that with our top-4 blue liners out of the line up due to injuries. I'm surprised we won games. LoL

What we couldn't foretell was our defense getting hit massively again for the second consecutive season. I was tracking Lindholm and Manson for the first 29 games of the season.

Ducks Top Pairing Comparison
Subject	Games	GF	GA	Goal Diff		GF/G	GA/G	Diff
Total	29	77	87	-10		2.66	3.00	-0.34
With Lind, Man	11	25	24	1		2.27	2.18	0.09
W/o Lind, Man	18	52	63	-11		2.89	3.50	-0.61

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lindholm/Manson	W	L	OTL	Pts	Win Pct
Games 1 - 11 (with)	6	5	0	12	0.545
Games 12 - 29 (without)	6	8	4	16	0.333

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We did trade for Gudbranson on Oct 15, 2019, before game 12. So Let's just cover Lindholm in our first 29 games. He was able to play in 21 games. Gudz played with Lindholm on the top pair.

Subject	Games	GF	GA	Goal Diff		GF/G	GA/G	Diff
Total	29	77	87	-10		2.66	3.00	-0.34
With Lindholm	21	50	52	-2		2.38	2.48	-0.10
W/o Lindholm	8	27	35	-8		3.38	4.38	-1.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lindholm	W	L	OTL	Pts	Win Pct
Games 1-15, 24-29 (with)	11	9	1	23	0.524
Games 16 - 23 (without)	1	4	3	5	0.125

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Once Lindholm fell out of the picture, Fowler became a top pairing defenseman. That 8-game stint proved that Fowler is a 2nd pairing defenseman, but a very good one at that! But look at that record with Lindholm and without Lindholm. Put a good stay at home defenseman with Lindholm (Manson or Gudz) and his top pair is a shutdown machine by almost 2 GA/G!

With Gudz and Manson, we have two very good stay-at-home defensemen going into next season. Add Djoos to that roster and we're deep with actual NHL talent! Then Curran is coming across the pond after finishing 2nd overall in the SHL.

It's freaky to have our defense hit with mass injuries to the point we lost Lindholm, Manson, Fowler, and Gudz at one point later in the season, after the TDL! We won 4-3 in OT against Colorado! The 6 defensemen for that game were: Djoos, MDZ, Guhle, Larsson, Irwin, and Hakanpaa. Granted, we had a lot of help from our forwards playing together as a unit!

If anyone predicted mass injuries to our defense, then good for them. But not many have that in mind. With more NHL talented defensemen going into next season, I feel better at weathering the storm. But I do hope Lindholm stays healthy for all the games played next season because we post a far better record with him than without him!

On a tangent, maybe grabbing a Sanderson isn't such a terrible idea if he's Lindholm-lite.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If the season wasn't shut down early, then I fear we would have had a lower draft ranking. The influx of talent at the TDL really gave the Ducks a boost and we moved faster as a unit. We did some of that with our top-4 blue liners out of the line up due to injuries. I'm surprised we won games. LoL

What we couldn't foretell was our defense getting hit massively again for the second consecutive season. I was tracking Lindholm and Manson for the first 29 games of the season.

Ducks Top Pairing Comparison
Subject	Games	GF	GA	Goal Diff		GF/G	GA/G	Diff
Total	29	77	87	-10		2.66	3.00	-0.34
With Lind, Man	11	25	24	1		2.27	2.18	0.09
W/o Lind, Man	18	52	63	-11		2.89	3.50	-0.61

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lindholm/Manson	W	L	OTL	Pts	Win Pct
Games 1 - 11 (with)	6	5	0	12	0.545
Games 12 - 29 (without)	6	8	4	16	0.333

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We did trade for Gudbranson on Oct 15, 2019, before game 12. So Let's just cover Lindholm in our first 29 games. He was able to play in 21 games. Gudz played with Lindholm on the top pair.

Subject	Games	GF	GA	Goal Diff		GF/G	GA/G	Diff
Total	29	77	87	-10		2.66	3.00	-0.34
With Lindholm	21	50	52	-2		2.38	2.48	-0.10
W/o Lindholm	8	27	35	-8		3.38	4.38	-1.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lindholm	W	L	OTL	Pts	Win Pct
Games 1-15, 24-29 (with)	11	9	1	23	0.524
Games 16 - 23 (without)	1	4	3	5	0.125

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Once Lindholm fell out of the picture, Fowler became a top pairing defenseman. That 8-game stint proved that Fowler is a 2nd pairing defenseman, but a very good one at that! But look at that record with Lindholm and without Lindholm. Put a good stay at home defenseman with Lindholm (Manson or Gudz) and his top pair is a shutdown machine by almost 2 GA/G!

With Gudz and Manson, we have two very good stay-at-home defensemen going into next season. Add Djoos to that roster and we're deep with actual NHL talent! Then Curran is coming across the pond after finishing 2nd overall in the SHL.

It's freaky to have our defense hit with mass injuries to the point we lost Lindholm, Manson, Fowler, and Gudz at one point later in the season, after the TDL! We won 4-3 in OT against Colorado! The 6 defensemen for that game were: Djoos, MDZ, Guhle, Larsson, Irwin, and Hakanpaa. Granted, we had a lot of help from our forwards playing together as a unit!

If anyone predicted mass injuries to our defense, then good for them. But not many have that in mind. With more NHL talented defensemen going into next season, I feel better at weathering the storm. But I do hope Lindholm stays healthy for all the games played next season because we post a far better record with him than without him!

On a tangent, maybe grabbing a Sanderson isn't such a terrible idea if he's Lindholm-lite.

Hasn't Lindholm always been a guy that makes his line mates better when he is on the ice, and part of the reason advanced stat junkies love him.

Sanderson is more of just a Lindholm, I don't think you have to put the lite in there... very good chance he becomes as good/if not better than Lindholm imo.

Lindholm, Fowler, Djoos, Curran, Larsson, mahura, guhle, Thrun, Lacombe is our LHD right now... I really prefer to stay away from LHD if we can afford it, unless we have a trade for 1 of fowler/Lindholm at the draft. I really don't think our defense is a big issue... I think our defense being healthy is the bigger issue.

 

[alcolol]

I'm more curious to see how the results for next season's thread fare relative to this. Perhaps this season going as poorly as it did was the dose of reality needed for fans to temper their expectations.

What teams who finished above Anaheim will finish worse than Anaheim next season? Minnesota (they just added Kaprizov)? Buffalo? New Jersey?

Of the four teams that finished below Anaheim, LA and San Jose might well finish above the Ducks next season.

Having said all that, I'll be surprised if Anaheim isn't a bottom-5 team again next season.

 

[Paul4587]

Hasn't Lindholm always been a guy that makes his line mates better when he is on the ice, and part of the reason advanced stat junkies love him.

Sanderson is more of just a Lindholm, I don't think you have to put the lite in there... very good chance he becomes as good/if not better than Lindholm imo.

Lindholm, Fowler, Djoos, Curran, Larsson, mahura, guhle, Thrun, Lacombe is our LHD right now... I really prefer to stay away from LHD if we can afford it, unless we have a trade for 1 of fowler/Lindholm at the draft. I really don't think our defense is a big issue... I think our defense being healthy is the bigger issue.

We do have depth at LD for now but by the time someone like Sanderson is ready (I’m assuming in his D + 3 year) Fowler will be 31, Lindholm could have left as a UFA and who know where the others end up. If they think Sanderson is the best player they should pick him because although we are strong at LD for now, that could change really quickly.

 

[Leonardo87]

I said before, think our D with Gibson is good enough to be competitive and now got some bottom pairing depth who can possibly fill in a Top 4 role , with these new acquisitions.

Goal scoring and finishing has been the major issue. Would rather go after a potential Top line Goal scorer/PP specialist than a Top 4D. I just think that is the priority, not sure what you guys feel.

 

[Paul4587]

I said before, think our D with Gibson is good enough to be competitive and now got some bottom pairing depth who can possibly fill in a Top 4 role , with these new acquisitions.

Goal scoring and finishing has been the major issue. Would rather go after a potential Top line Goal scorer/PP specialist than a Top 4D. I just think that is the priority, not sure what you guys feel.

Priority should just be talent in general - we should be taking the BPA no matter what the position. As I said in a previous post our D may be set for now but by the time these draftees are contributing on a nightly basis our needs most likely will be completely different.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Priority should just be talent in general - we should be taking the BPA no matter what the position. As I said in a previous post our D may be set for now but by the time these draftees are contributing on a nightly basis our needs most likely will be completely different.

If you look at our drafting record, we abandoned drafting defensemen in the first round for four straight draft years and drafting defensemen in the 2nd round for three straight draft years. Only last year did we go defense. Outside of Trevor Janicke, who was drafted in the 5th round, from the 2nd round onward we drafted defensemen. Straight from Bob's mouth was that we focused on drafting defense after taking two more forwards in the first round.

We'd all like to say we draft BPA, but we haven't. We've been forward focused for the past four draft seasons. And I think we finally hit the jackpot with Zegras, which was in the fourth draft season of drafting forwards. LoL I was set on taking Broberg in 2019 until he was snatched up a pick before us, but seeing Zegras fall was a no brainer of a BPA.

We got extremely luck to have landed Thrun in the 4th round. I was expecting to draft Thrun at the bottom of the first round by Anaheim. So I was pleasantly surprised to find out we drafted him in the 4th round! Steal!!!

Also, our goalie situation seems very set for years. We won't be drafting a goalie in first or second round this year. This is proof we won't be drafting BPA, but we'll be drafting BPA + need for Anaheim specifically.

 

[MMC]

If you look at our drafting record, we abandoned drafting defensemen in the first round for four straight draft years and drafting defensemen in the 2nd round for three straight draft years. Only last year did we go defense. Outside of Trevor Janicke, who was drafted in the 5th round, from the 2nd round onward we drafted defensemen. Straight from Bob's mouth was that we focused on drafting defense after taking two more forwards in the first round.

We'd all like to say we draft BPA, but we haven't. We've been forward focused for the past four draft seasons. And I think we finally hit the jackpot with Zegras, which was in the fourth draft season of drafting forwards. LoL I was set on taking Broberg in 2019 until he was snatched up a pick before us, but seeing Zegras fall was a no brainer of a BPA.

We got extremely luck to have landed Thrun in the 4th round. I was expecting to draft Thrun at the bottom of the first round by Anaheim. So I was pleasantly surprised to find out we drafted him in the 4th round! Steal!!!

Also, our goalie situation seems very set for years. We won't be drafting a goalie in first or second round this year. This is proof we won't be drafting BPA, but we'll be drafting BPA + need for Anaheim specifically.

Is it not likely that we felt all of the forwards we drafted were the best players at where we were drafting?

 

[Paul4587]

Is it not likely that we felt all of the forwards we drafted were the best players at where we were drafting?

Especially given Madden and Murray are always quoted saying they use the method of drafting BPA for high picks.

 

[DavidBL]

Especially given Madden and Murray are always quoted saying they use the method of drafting BPA for high picks.

Best player is a bit subjective. It depends on what you want that player to do. I believe Murray has also been quoted saying he drafts players with the best likely hood of being NHL players. IE players with high floors and not necessarily high ceilings. Safe picks.

 

[Paul4587]

Best player is a bit subjective. It depends on what you want that player to do. I believe Murray has also been quoted saying he drafts players with the best likely hood of being NHL players. IE players with high floors and not necessarily high ceilings. Safe picks.

The definition of what one considers the best player is subjective but it’s still the best player. Murray and Madden have stated that they don’t draft based on needs in the high rounds.

 

[DavidBL]

The definition of what one considers the best player is subjective but it’s still the best player. Murray and Madden have stated that they don’t draft based on needs in the high rounds.

Sure, but the criteria used to determine that are different that's why we have so many different rankings. Just suggesting that if Raymond and Holtz were the only 2 players to pick from and they chose Holtz it doesn't necessarily mean that they didn't pick the BPA of the 2 in their minds even if it wasn't the consensus BPA. Its kind of semantics and at the end of the day I'd like to think that they have a good handle on things.

 

[Paul4587]

Sure, but the criteria used to determine that are different that's why we have so many different rankings. Just suggesting that if Raymond and Holtz were the only 2 players to pick from and they chose Holtz it doesn't necessarily mean that they didn't pick the BPA of the 2 in their minds even if it wasn't the consensus BPA. Its kind of semantics and at the end of the day I'd like to think that they have a good handle on things.

Completely agreed. We don’t know who they think is the best player or their criteria. But we do know they’re not going to draft for positional need early on and will pick who in their minds is the BPA.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The definition of what one considers the best player is subjective but it’s still the best player. Murray and Madden have stated that they don’t draft based on needs in the high rounds.

Murray also stated there would be competition last off-season for forward roster spots too.

2009

Rd 1. C Holland, RW Palms
Rd 2. D Clark​

2010

Rd 1. D Fowler, RW Etem
Rd 2. RW DSP​

2011

Rd 1. C Rakell
Rd 2. G Gibby, C Wild Bill​

2012

Rd 1. D Lindholm
Rd 2. LW Kerdiles​

2013

Rd 1. D Theodore
Rd 2. RW Sorensen​

2014

Rd 1. LW Ritchie
Rd 2. D Pettersson, D Monty​

2015

Rd 1. D Larsson
Rd 2. C Nattinen​

2016

Rd 1. LW Jones, C Steel
Rd 2. none​

Video Link of GM Murray about the 2016 draft, pay close attn to time 1:18 and on: link

2017

Rd 1. none (Eaves trade)
Rd 2. LW Comtois, C Morand​

2018

Rd 1. C Lundestrom
Rd 2. C Groulx​

The whole world knew we were in on Lundestrom. LoL

2019

Rd 1. C Zegras, LW Tracey
Rd 2. D LaCombe​

OCRegister article: Ducks focusing on center with no. 9 pick in NHL draft
Anaheim Calling article: 2019 draft recap (includes a couple of quotes from OCRegister article in case you can't see past the pay wall)

If you omit Getz, Perry, Kesler, and Eaves getting older to where the Ducks will move on from them soon, then they, there's no pattern. Anaheim's been consistent in drafting forward or defense (which I'll include goalie in that category) in the first two rounds under Murray. We've hit more on defense (including goalie) during 2009 - 2015. D Fowler, G Gibby, D Lindholm, D Theo, D Pettersson, and D Monty. D Clark didn't pan out and D Larsson is still going through growing pains. For our forward class between 2009-2015, only Palms produced in a ducks' sweater (Wild Bill needed two more sweaters to discover he's a good player). Excluding the 2019 draft group, our best potential prospect forward we have wasn't drafted in the first two rounds in winger Troy Terry, drafted in the 5th round of the 2015 draft class.

In that OCRegister article, GM Murray already had a preference for a center because we're thin at center. I thought I heard GM Murray say he focused on defense after the first round because we were thin at defense, but I couldn't find a source on google to share. The Anaheim Calling article did denote how empty our pool was with defensemen.

They're not drafting in a vacuum. They're doing "BPA + Need" since 2016 as they've discovered we're not hitting enough on forwards. ::: sadly sighs ::: The fact that Zegras is our #1 prospect just reiterates how sad our forward corps is. LoL (oh it hurts to admit that)