How will Sanderson's new contract influence a Seider extension?

[Henkka]

Right because a guy born in 2001 with one ELC year left can't possibly be compared to a guy born in 2002 with one ELC year left.

Or Heiskanen.

Is it because it doesn't fit the Mo is going to sign for $3M less per year than he's worth for shits and giggles narrative?

There's no damn narrative.

I understand you people will see Seider as the real deal and after this desperate hunt of elite talent for our organization, you guys want the young kids getting paid.

Believe me, based on his historic acts, Steve Yzerman sees it totally different way. 8 year deal for youngsters in a consensus way. Consensus never wins. Yzerman is going on his own way and path. He sees 23 particles on the team and how get them all underpaid on long run to build a contender based on caphit bargains.

In a scenario, you sign all young kids long term, to overpay them for the first 4 years and then hoping they would be bargains on years 5,6,7,8 you get hurt by cap on those 1,2,3,4 years and a winning team could never happen. And guy could get injured down the road. They could lose their potential you just paid for. Then they'll become "ryan johansens" - organizational cap killers.

Long-term deals are not the god's word and ultimate savior. Those have different types of risks. Short-term deal have those salary raise risks too, but Yzerman does not fear those negotiations at all. Just look how he operates. He does not operate like those GMs who fear.

You don't have to pay for potential, to hurt your cap now, and hope for some time period later, where you get the steals. You can get steals now, and you can repeat other steals 4 years later. Steals after steals.

You don't have to hung yourself on long-term contracts, until the players are totally proven, and in their prime years, like we got Larkin deal done. And that's a small bargain too. You do it, if it's a small or bigger bargain. You don't do it, if it's not a bargain. Then you trade the guy for other assets, like Stevie did with Bertuzzi. And moved on.

Keeping strict cap policy is the road to success.

 

[lilidk]

When you say “should”, from who’s perspective, team or player?

Most teams are locking young, emergent stars to long term and large dollars NOW to avoid having to pay even more in future year negotiations. That market has been established.

A bridge will only cost DRW more down the road, assuming the trajectory of development doesn’t change. So it’s not in the teams favour.

A bridge might favour Mo long term if he can parlay it into a bigger payday in 2 years when the cap is higher and he continues to attain higher levels of performance, but it also comes with (slight) risk of injury and curtailed production. He has already established himself to the degree that 8x9.5 wouldn’t be absurd. As others have said, he has more or less stated that he’s wanting to get the large contract in place now.

I believe they will end up with bridge, but of course I hope it's something like 8x8.5

 

[brentashton]

I believe they will end up with bridge, but of course I hope it's something like 8x8.5

8x8.5 would be a freakin’ steal.

 

[Henkka]

Another serious scenario is, what if Seider never lives up to his potential, even though he will seem like a sure bet currently?

What if he is the next Ryan Suter, almost a Norris defenceman. But Simon Edvinsson will become better PP QB or other way better offensively defenceman like Shea Weber was? And if few years later, Sandin Pellikka becomes Roman Josi and takes the PP QB job.

So you went and paid for potential, and the production never happened you paid for. But still Seider became absolutely great shut-down defenceman like McDonagh, which will lead you to glory.

With short-term policy, you never had to overpay for guy like that and especially don't have to pay for potential. You just lift the salary, as the time goes by and keep him underpaid.

 

[norrisnick]

There's no damn narrative.

I understand you people will see Seider as the real deal and after this desperate hunt of elite talent for our organization, you guys want the young kids getting paid.

Believe me, based on his historic acts, Steve Yzerman sees it totally different way. 8 year deal for youngsters in a consensus way. Consensus never wins. Yzerman is going on his own way and path. He sees 23 particles on the team and how get them all underpaid on long run to build a contender based on caphit bargains.

In a scenario, you sign all young kids long term, to overpay them for the first 4 years and then hoping they would be bargains on years 5,6,7,8 you get hurt by cap on those 1,2,3,4 years and a winning team could never happen. And guy could get injured down the road. They could lose their potential you just paid for. Then they'll become "ryan johansens" - organizational cap killers.

Long-term deals are not the god's word and ultimate savior. Those have different types of risks. Short-term deal have those salary raise risks too, but Yzerman does not fear those negotiations at all. Just look how he operates. He does not operate like those GMs who fear.

You don't have to pay for potential, to hurt your cap now, and hope for some time period later, where you get the steals. You can get steals now, and you can repeat other steals 4 years later. Steals after steals.

You don't have to hung yourself on long-term contracts, until the players are totally proven, and in their prime years, like we got Larkin deal done. And that's a small bargain too. You do it, if it's a small or bigger bargain. You don't do it, if it's not a bargain. Then you trade the guy for other assets, like Stevie did with Bertuzzi. And moved on.

Keeping strict cap policy is the road to success.

You just typed up the whole narrative. "Yzerman will sign bargains or he won't sign them."

Except for Chiarot, except for Copp, except for Compher, except for Husso, etc...

You are hyperfixated on bargains, and Yzerman is signing players at market value because that's what he has to do to get talent.

Financially, unless you don't believe in Seider at all, it makes the most sense to sign him for as long as you can right now. There is no bridge that will save you from a massive cap hit in 2 or 3 years and come in under the 8 year AAV. So why mess with it? Lock him in and don't line him up with Ed or Kasper or Danielson etc... needing new deals.

It's pure fantasy to think Mo would bridge for $5M and then sign for anything less than $10M in as little as two years unless you think there is zero room for improvement in his play and if anything he regresses. In which case this team is f***ed anyway and it doesn't matter what we do.

Another serious scenario is, what if Seider never lives up to his potential, even though he will seem like a sure bet currently?

What if he is the next Ryan Suter, almost a Norris defenceman. But Simon Edvinsson will become better PP QB or other way better offensively defenceman like Shea Weber was? And if few years later, Sandin Pellikka becomes Roman Josi and takes the PP QB job.

So you went and paid for potential, and the production never happened you paid for. But still Seider became absolutely great shut-down defenceman like McDonagh, which will lead you to glory.

With short-term policy, you never had to overpay for guy like that and especially don't have to pay for potential. You just lift the salary, as the time goes by and keep him underpaid.

Those guys are making $8-9.5M now already. Why would it be any different if Mo gets that?

 

[heyfolks]

How will Sanderson's new contract influence a Seider extension?​

Stevie Y is not influenced, he influences.

 

[odin1981]

It might set the floor, but I see him getting 9+ for 8 years.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

You just typed up the whole narrative. "Yzerman will sign bargains or he won't sign them."

Except for Chiarot, except for Copp, except for Compher, except for Husso, etc...

You are hyperfixated on bargains, and Yzerman is signing players at market value because that's what he has to do to get talent.

Financially, unless you don't believe in Seider at all, it makes the most sense to sign him for as long as you can right now. There is no bridge that will save you from a massive cap hit in 2 or 3 years and come in under the 8 year AAV. So why mess with it? Lock him in and don't line him up with Ed or Kasper or Danielson etc... needing new deals.

It's pure fantasy to think Mo would bridge for $5M and then sign for anything less than $10M in as little as two years unless you think there is zero room for improvement in his play and if anything he regresses. In which case this team is f***ed anyway and it doesn't matter what we do.


Those guys are making $8-9.5M now already. Why would it be any different if Mo gets that?

Because they're getting that as UFAs. Mo has several years of control as an RFA left. It is dumb not to use that leverage. If you're talking 8x9 to get Seider to sign right now... I'd rather try to bridge him at 2x6 or 3x6 and pay him 8x10 in a couple years.

 

[DoMakc]

Because they're getting that as UFAs. Mo has several years of control as an RFA left. It is dumb not to use that leverage. If you're talking 8x9 to get Seider to sign right now... I'd rather try to bridge him at 2x6 or 3x6 and pay him 8x10 in a couple years.

But you are not paying 8x10 in a couple of years - if everything goes like it did now, with cap going up and salaries accordingly, you are paying 8x12. And you have'll a lot less leverage, as then he is going to be 1 year removed from free unrestricted free agency. And the worst part - you actually don't need those 3 mil now, so why would you do it.

 

[Henkka]

But you are not paying 8x10 in a couple of years - if everything goes like it did now, with cap going up and salaries accordingly, you are paying 8x12. And you have'll a lot less leverage, as then he is going to be 1 year removed from free unrestricted free agency. And the worst part - you actually don't need those 3 mil now, so why would you do it.

No, you don't have to pay Seider 12 million after 3 seasons. This is absolutely ridiculous take.

You guys are just totally lost with math.

Rasmus Dahlin got 6M with a 3-year bridge. And is outproducing Seider by far margin.

Seider would probably got 5.4-5.6M with a 2-3 year deal.

And then afterward, based on becoming, Rasmus Dahlin is getting 10.5M 8-year extension after that bridge. And is superior producer versus Seider. And will always be.

Seider will never get more than Dahlin. He will sill be one of the best cost-controlled Top NHL defenceman, even if he takes a 3-year bridge.

We in here know how Seider could be as effective defenceman, as Rasmus Dahlin will be. But contracts are based on production. They are based too much on that, and that's the thing what will make Red Wings a favor ans Sabres will suffer a bit.

Seider won't ever be highest priced D, but he could be most effective. You guys know it, but just won't get it, that we don't have to pay the premium for that. Guys like Erik Karlsson will get the big millions, and never win anything. You win with the better defensive type of bargain defencemen, who are enough skilled.

 

[norrisnick]

No, you don't have to pay Seider 12 million after 3 seasons. This is absolutely ridiculous take.

You guys are just totally lost with math.

Rasmus Dahlin got 6M with a 3-year bridge. And is outproducing Seider by far margin.

Seider would probably got 5.4-5.6M with a 2-3 year deal.

And then afterward, based on becoming, Rasmus Dahlin is getting 10.5M 8-year extension after that bridge. And is superior producer versus Seider. And will always be.

Seider will never get more than Dahlin. He will sill be one of the best cost-controlled Top NHL defenceman, even if he takes a 3-year bridge.

We in here know how Seider could be as effective defenceman, as Rasmus Dahlin will be. But contracts are based on production. They are based too much on that, and that's the thing what will make Red Wings a favor ans Sabres will suffer a bit.

Seider won't ever be highest priced D, but he could be most effective. You guys know it, but just won't get it, that we don't have to pay the premium for that. Guys like Erik Karlsson will get the big millions, and never win anything. You win with the better defensive type of bargain defencemen, who are enough skilled.

Right. And Sanderson's deal highlights this economic landscape and not the fact that solid if unspectacular players are getting big money.

Dahlin got $6Mx3 before he outproduced Mo. Same with Heiskanen's deal. Look at their numbers (which apparently dictate everything) when they signed those deals. Not their numbers after.

And contracts leapfrog all the time. There is no reasonable basis for Matthews to make more than McDavid if they sign at the same time. But since one signed after the other we get their current contract figures

You have this bizarre notion that Yzerman is the only smart guy in hockey and that he can't possibly lose a negotiation and not get everything he wants. There's a handful of deals he signed over the last 15 months that show that isn't the case at all.

 

[Indrid Cold]

If you can get him at 9 million X 8 years, it will be a steal a couple years down the road, especially when the cap goes up. Seider isn't the kind of player you want to risk losing after a bridge deal. Lock him up.

 

[Henkka]

If you can get him at 9 million X 8 years, it will be a steal a couple years down the road, especially when the cap goes up. Seider isn't the kind of player you want to risk losing after a bridge deal. Lock him up.

Seider would be a steal with 3-year deal. Then he would be a steal for next 8 years during his prime. And then, at 35-year old, he would still be a steal and would proably take paycut for the final years towards 40 years of age.

This is not gonna be any kind of problem at any point his career. Only good options, if he will stay healthy.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

At this point I really want Seider to sign 8x8.8 just to prove Henkka wrong about Yzerman doing everything the same as he did in Tampa Bay.

 

[Indrid Cold]

Seider would be a steal with 3-year deal. Then he would be a steal for next 8 years during his prime. And then, at 35-year old, he would still be a steal and would proably take paycut for the final years towards 40 years of age.

This is not gonna be any kind of problem at any point his career. Only good options, if he will stay healthy.

I appreciate your enthusiasm for the young man, but the Wings are not likely to be a top team talent wise and will need to be ahead of the curve, cap wise. Keeping Mo is great, but they need to masterfully work the cap, and get an advantage there. Signing Mo would be the cake, but pushing that cap hit down as much as possible would be the icing.

 

[Henkka]

I appreciate your enthusiasm for the young man, but the Wings are not likely to be a top team talent wise and will need to be ahead of the curve, cap wise. Keeping Mo is great, but they need to masterfully work the cap, and get an advantage there. Signing Mo would be the cake, but pushing that cap hit down as much as possible would be the icing.

I see a problem, if we do 8 years now. That contract will be ending, when he is 32. On the final year he is 31, in his prime. That next contract after 8 could be very problematic.

But going like 3 years from now, and then extending him, when he is 26 and when that contracts end when he is 34, that carries over his prime and he could start a bit regress on final years. Maybe some younger defenceman has taken some duties from him, Edvinsson loggin the top ice-time as 31 year old, when Seider is 34, Pellikka mastering the 1st PP as 29 year old.

Going ELC+3+8+3+2+1 or something like that until 40 years old could be 20 years of bargains in-a-row.

I just don't think he'll ever be overpaid, because the situations could change like that.

Also, what comes to this day, he is not there as the best producer like Maker/Dahlin/Q.Hughes -group have been. That's why the next contracts won't go out of hands. I don't see him improving his production that much on future years. He will improve vs himself, but maybe not that much vs. other prime players.

Makar/Hughes/Dahlin production average has been 0.863 on their last 3 years, before Seider hitting on his ELC ending age. Seider should put 1,50 points per game to match with that average. that's not gonna happen. I'm expectinghim going 0.70 on next season, and then his ELC average as 23-year old is 0.61.

Miro Heiskanen average from last 3 seasons is 0.67, so Seider will be behind that, even if he improves to 0.70 season. Heiskanen has gone 0.49 - 0.51 - 0.92, huge jump on last year, when Klingberg finally moved away eating his PP points. Seider has been at 1st PP, and is not even near Heiskanen PP production.

And after 3 years, he could raise his production average, but at same time, so does Hughes/Dahlin/Makar, they will be better nearer their primes. So the difference will stay. Comparables will be ahead, and Seider will never get same money.

Defence does not really get paid.

 

[norrisnick]

It is so wholly disingenuous to compare these contracts and then include stats from after they signed them.

Dahlin had 3 years at 0.54 PPG and no defense to speak of (at the time) when he signed his 3 x $6M and now he's staring at a rumored 5 x $10.5M.
Heiskanen had 3 years at 0.46 PPG with solid defense (and a massive playoff run) when he signed his 8 x $8.45M.
Hughes at 3 years at 0.75 PPG and no defense to speak of (at the time) when he signed his 6 x $7.85M
Makar had a great 2 years at 0.94 PPG with solid defense when he signed his 6 x $9M

Seider has 2 years at 0.56 PPG with only Heiskanen out of this group at a similar level defensively.

At 8 years Hughes and Makar would have received way more than what they did and they will receive a metric shit ton of cash in 2026 when they are eligible to extend.

And it brings us back to a very good point DoMakc made. Why worry about his cap hit now? His cap hit in 3-4-5-6-7-8 years is way more important than his cap hit next year or the year after. Lock him in before the upper limit goes through the roof.

 

[Gniwder]

But you are not paying 8x10 in a couple of years - if everything goes like it did now, with cap going up and salaries accordingly, you are paying 8x12. And you have'll a lot less leverage, as then he is going to be 1 year removed from free unrestricted free agency. And the worst part - you actually don't need those 3 mil now, so why would you do it.

There are only 2 players that are over $12M. Sure teh cap is going up, but not that much, lol.

 

[Indrid Cold]

I see a problem, if we do 8 years now. That contract will be ending, when he is 32. On the final year he is 31, in his prime. That next contract after 8 could be very problematic.

But going like 3 years from now, and then extending him, when he is 26 and when that contracts end when he is 34, that carries over his prime and he could start a bit regress on final years. Maybe some younger defenceman has taken some duties from him, Edvinsson loggin the top ice-time as 31 year old, when Seider is 34, Pellikka mastering the 1st PP as 29 year old.

Going ELC+3+8+3+2+1 or something like that until 40 years old could be 20 years of bargains in-a-row.

I just don't think he'll ever be overpaid, because the situations could change like that.

Also, what comes to this day, he is not there as the best producer like Maker/Dahlin/Q.Hughes -group have been. That's why the next contracts won't go out of hands. I don't see him improving his production that much on future years. He will improve vs himself, but maybe not that much vs. other prime players.

Makar/Hughes/Dahlin production average has been 0.863 on their last 3 years, before Seider hitting on his ELC ending age. Seider should put 1,50 points per game to match with that average. that's not gonna happen. I'm expectinghim going 0.70 on next season, and then his ELC average as 23-year old is 0.61.

Miro Heiskanen average from last 3 seasons is 0.67, so Seider will be behind that, even if he improves to 0.70 season. Heiskanen has gone 0.49 - 0.51 - 0.92, huge jump on last year, when Klingberg finally moved away eating his PP points. Seider has been at 1st PP, and is not even near Heiskanen PP production.

And after 3 years, he could raise his production average, but at same time, so does Hughes/Dahlin/Makar, they will be better nearer their primes. So the difference will stay. Comparables will be ahead, and Seider will never get same money.

Defence does not really get paid.

And at 32 he will command an even bigger contract, while heading towards the downside of his career. I see your point. Bridge him now, then get him on an 8 year contract through 35 years old, even if you have to pay him more.

 

[EXTRAS]

Ideas now?