How will Sanderson's new contract influence a Seider extension?

[norrisnick]

Low-balled Larkin and blinked. You and a bunch of others were at least half a million low in their predictions. Yzerman moved more than Larkin in those negotiations.

 

[Henkka]

Low-balled Larkin and blinked. You and a bunch of others were at least half a million low in their predictions. Yzerman moved more than Larkin in those negotiations.

Evolwing hockey estimated 9.1M for Larkin.

So it was a 400k bargain.

We estimated less 1-2 years before it was signed, because there was no clue about the cap growth on that time.

Now other organizations and agents are banking that expected growth inside values and that number environment has changed a lot since.

 

[norrisnick]

Evolwing hockey estimated 9.1M for Larkin.

So it was a 400k bargain.

We estimated less 1-2 years before it was signed, because there was no clue about the cap growth on that time.

Now other organizations and agents are banking that expected growth inside values and that number environment has changed a lot since.

Evolving may have speculated $9.1M but you and many others were saying $8M if that. You don't get to align yourself with a higher number after the fact. We were all here in the discussions.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Evolwing hockey estimated 9.1M for Larkin.

So it was a 400k bargain.

That's... not how those things work.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Evolving may have speculated $9.1M but you and many others were saying $8M if that. You don't get to align yourself with a higher number after the fact. We were all here in the discussions.

That's because most people on this message board are wholly out-of-touch with how contract negotiations are done.

If Larkin was getting 8M, it's because he was giving a HUGE break to the Wings. Most people here also are apoplectic that Larkin is our 1C... however, I'm fairly certain that Yzerman is okay with him holding that role.

Yzerman didn't blink and didn't overpay. What we say here has no f***in bearing on their contract negotiations at all. 8M was a pipe-dream shared between all the fans that think he's no better than a 2C and/or that he would give a huge hometown discount.

I remember about halfway through the negotiation news (so a couple months prior to it resolving, I started wanting to see 8/71 (following the Crosby numerology strategy) which was 8.875 and around that time, everyone was worried it was going to be between 9-10 because that's where Larkin was digging his heels in.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

If you can't wrap your mind around paying Seider more than Larkin then I think personally you have to start imaging the return a Seider trade could get because he'll walk in FA, if he's able to hit it.

Legitimately the dude's lined up for a monster year.

Many teams are happy to pay Seider if Yzerman isn't ready to, and I don't think it's a Larkin situation where he feels some loyalty towards the team/town/fans.

Besides the fact that Mo himself came out and said that while he's not going to be taken advantage of and he'll negotiate, he realizes that if he takes a bit less, the team can give everyone else a little more.

Also frankly, based on comparables (Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.), Seider has no leg to stand on for anything about 9.5. Because Makar signed 6x9, Seider will have an uphill battle to argue for that. That's why I think 8x8.7 is a fair deal for all parties. It's comfortably more than Sanderson who he's better than, it's a bit less than Makar (even if it's more years) who he's worse then, and it doesn't approach the UFA dollars that guys like Werenski, Jones, and Nurse got.

It's not that I'm worried about paying him more than Larkin, it's that given he's still an RFA, I don't think he's got the track record to ask and receive more than him.

Deals including RFA years greatly take comparables into account and don't have the inflation of every team being able to offer with impunity.

 

[Henkka]

It's not that I'm worried about paying him more than Larkin, it's that given he's still an RFA, I don't think he's got the track record to ask and receive more than him.

Deals including RFA years greatly take comparables into account and don't have the inflation of every team being able to offer with impunity.

Larkin deal included 8 UFA-years and next Seider contract will include 4 RFA years.

That's a big difference.


***

It was interesting take at Winged Wheel podcast. Like Seider wanting only 2 years, because the bigger money is there after 2 years.

And Yzerman wanting 8 years, to have the bargain years at years 5,6,7,8.

This sounds like a 5-year, "Victor Hedman" compromise, they are gonna complete.

 

[norrisnick]

f***ing listen to Mo himself. He wants 8 years. He's not f***ing around with a bridge. He's cognizant of the fickle nature of pro-athlete's careers and he's cashing in. He's not going to completely handcuff Yzerman, but he's also not going to sign a 4-5 year $30-40M contract when there's $60-70M on the table.

 

[Gniwder]

Also frankly, based on comparables (Werenski, Nurse, Jones, etc.), Seider has no leg to stand on for anything about 9.5.

Those comparables are such bad contracts, it's not even funny. All 3 of them should be making >$2M less.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

8 years, 10 million.

 

[Detroit Knights]

f***ing listen to Mo himself. He wants 8 years. He's not f***ing around with a bridge. He's cognizant of the fickle nature of pro-athlete's careers and he's cashing in. He's not going to completely handcuff Yzerman, but he's also not going to sign a 4-5 year $30-40M contract when there's $60-70M on the table.

 

[norrisnick]

There's no extraneous caps or !s. I'm perfectly f***ing calm.

 

[lidstromiscool]

Mo will be a top 5-10 D in a year or two, lock him up for 8 years if you can. Anything under 10 will be a great deal in a year or two.

 

[Henkka]

Those comparables are such bad contracts, it's not even funny. All 3 of them should be making >$2M less.

Then there's Makar who is producing point per game and Seider producing half about that.

Yzerman will offer half about Makar 9M.?

It can go many ways.

Yzerman really does not pay for potential. 95% of his acts as GM won't pay for potential.

It's more for proven things.

 

[Gniwder]

Then there's Makar who is producing point per game and Seider producing half about that.

Yzerman will offer half about Makar 9M.?

It can go many ways.

Yzerman really does not pay for potential. 95% of his acts as GM won't pay for potential.

It's more for proven things.

Yup, you look at last season points per game for defensemen:

Nurse #39
Jones #41
Seider #42
Petry #43

Obviously Seider is better defensively, but offense makes the big money. Dunn got 4x$7.35 and he only had one RFA year left.

In any case, Seider's contract will come in much lower than the projections here. If he asks for more than $9M, I bet he gets a bridge deal instead.

 

[norrisnick]

$8.5M to $9.5M is my range. I think he might do the Larkin match.

 

[FlyguyOX]

If I'm Yzerman, I walk in with a contract at Dylan Larkin's contract number. No more, no less. 8x8.7 or 8/69.

Make Dylan's contract the barometer for all of our deals because Mo took it too. It's more than Sanderson and just a shade below Makar.

This. I think it's pretty clear this has always been his strategy and how he built Tampa, too.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Because no player is going to agree to a $1.3M drop in AAV to go from 8 to 7 years. 4 maybe. It makes zero sense to have the biggest drop in AAV to be between 7 and 8 years. That should be the lowest AAV difference.

One less UFA year off the contract. It makes sense.

 

[norrisnick]

One less UFA year off the contract. It makes sense.

Only if that year is at like $18M salary.

8 years x $8.5M = $68M
7 years x $7.2M = $50.4M

Why would a player ever agree to that much less money for only getting one year back?

 

[Detroit Knights]

There's no extraneous caps or !s. I'm perfectly f***ing calm.

 

[norrisnick]

 

[Detroit Knights]

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[Henkka]

I have really hard time to find the comparable for Seider.

Nearest seem to be Dobson.

Every other is either better productive defenceman, by a far margin, at caliber of Makar,Hughes,Dahlin.

Or, the same level produtive guys like Dobson, Byram, Bouchard, are signed short-term.

Yzerman kind of has the timing perfectly for this deal. There's no real comparables.

No one except Dobson was at same age as ELC ending --> for extension. Those things are the real factors on contract comparables. Same draft classes, contracts signed at same point of careers, or ELC ending at same age.

Sending Seider for 1 year to Sweden kind of did this. It did delay his ELC to end, and now there's no age comparables.

So it's Yzerman controlling this situation. Like he always does. It's Stevie doing his thing.

Prepare for shorter deal and a cap bargain. He is not gonna pay for potential.

Seider will proably be better overall defenceman than he will be paid. I love it. We can use those saved millions on other positions.

 

[norrisnick]

Right because a guy born in 2001 with one ELC year left can't possibly be compared to a guy born in 2002 with one ELC year left.

Or Heiskanen.

Is it because it doesn't fit the Mo is going to sign for $3M less per year than he's worth for shits and giggles narrative?

 

[brentashton]

Should be bridge deal

When you say “should”, from who’s perspective, team or player?

Most teams are locking young, emergent stars to long term and large dollars NOW to avoid having to pay even more in future year negotiations. That market has been established.

A bridge will only cost DRW more down the road, assuming the trajectory of development doesn’t change. So it’s not in the teams favour.

A bridge might favour Mo long term if he can parlay it into a bigger payday in 2 years when the cap is higher and he continues to attain higher levels of performance, but it also comes with (slight) risk of injury and curtailed production. He has already established himself to the degree that 8x9.5 wouldn’t be absurd. As others have said, he has more or less stated that he’s wanting to get the large contract in place now.