How will Sanderson's new contract influence a Seider extension?

[ricky0034]

I just posted this is another thread before seeing this one, so I'll copy it here:

I guess I don't see the issue. Mo shows every indication of being a player that deserves top money as he enters his prime, and Yzerman shows every indication of being a shrewd negotiator that still ultimately gets things done. (With plenty of long term cap flexibility at the moment.)

Even if Seider ends up with 8x$9M, I don't think it scuttles anything.

plus between the cap going up and just general player development as he plays more in the league I think there's probably a higher chance of him being a ~$12m guy in a few years than there is of him not living up to a ~$9m deal so it just seems like a silly thing to worry about

unless the Wings pull a Leafs and only lock him up for 4-5 years at that price instead of 8 but not many teams are that dumb

 

[Henkka]

Yzerman will probably take the shorter deal, as absolute bargain, like he did with Hedman.

Stevie has been the mr. short-term deal and expecting him going 8 years... I don't see it anyhow as a slamdunk option.

Seider is the only guy I would give 8 years from current core, but with Stevie as the GM, I expect the short way.

Hedman was a steal with the shorter deal, and he still was a bargain after they extended him to 8 years.

And all this plan did lead to 2 Cups.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'd rather lock him up at 8M - 9.5M for 8 years. If he gets a bridge deal we could be looking at north of 10 for him.

As much as we all love Seider it's no guarantee that he owns our #1PP forever or that his offensive production goes up well beyond the ~50 point mark. With the cap going up it's probably still in our best interest to go the full 8, but by the end of that contract we should probably hope he's not our #1PPQB because ideally that's ASP.

 

[Snuggs]

I'll bet you right now a friendly bottle of something that Seider will for sure no doubt hit 50 points easily this year.

I think Seider easily gets 9 million, convo starts now at how many years, and how close to 10 million does he get, because he'll get it in the open market.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

This is a good problem to have. I hope all of our prospects are due for huge raises...

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I'll bet you right now a friendly bottle of something that Seider will for sure no doubt hit 50 points easily this year.

I think Seider easily gets 9 million, convo starts now at how many years, and how close to 10 million does he get, because he'll get it in the open market.

This is why I’d start him off in negotiations at 8x8.7, or the Larkin deal. Per Mo’s own words, he’s not looking to break the bank, just get the money that is reasonably owed him.

You can easily sell 8x8.7 to him and Claude

*. It’s notably more than Sanderson who he’s better than
* it’s only slightly less AAV than Cale Makar who he’s not as good as, but close enough that it isn’t an insult.


While also…
* You can call his bluff on “I’m in for the team” with it, while not lowballing him because if he takes Larkin’s deal, he’s working to help set a barometer for other contracts with him and Larkin both taking it
* you’re protected a little bit from a downturn in that you’re not paying him double digit millions

 

[SirloinUB]

Id take Mo at 8 x 8.5 every day

 

[Gniwder]

As much as we all love Seider it's no guarantee that he owns our #1PP forever or that his offensive production goes up well beyond the ~50 point mark. With the cap going up it's probably still in our best interest to go the full 8, but by the end of that contract we should probably hope he's not our #1PPQB because ideally that's ASP.

Ed could be another PP1 option. Mo's a decent PP QB, but he isn't elite in that area.

Seider's contract is gonna come in lower than what most people here are expecting. Watch Stevie work his magic. Not worried at all. Mo's not getting over $9M unless he puts up at least 60 points this season. I don't think he will because Ghost will play PP1.

 

[norrisnick]

I'm not seeing all this Ghost PP wizardry since like 2018 when he ran with the top PP producer of the 2010s (Giroux). Mo outproduced Ghost on the PP the last 2 years in his first years in the NHL at 20/21yo.

 

[Retire91]

If he gets 9 mill will be well worth it, thank goodness we have an anchor on the D now. Hope we can sign him for the max term

To Hennka's point Yzerman may be able to convince him to take a contract path that surrounds him with more talent. It will be kind of up to Seider, will he be show me the money, or better chance at a cup contender. I feel that is a decision all young stars face. For me once you start making multiple millions of dollars a year another million wouldn't mean much to me. I would rather have better team mates. Yzerman is not careless with cap and might be able to convince him. I mean if anyone can it's Yzerman.

 

[Indrid Cold]

Id take Mo at 8 x 8.5 every day

Too gud to be true. Larkin got less than I thought he would, so maybe Yzerman can work his magic.

 

[Holden Caufield]

Not ideal for the Red Wings negotiating power… not ideal.

 

[eojsmada]

Starts at 8.5 for Seider and I don't see Sanderson even as a comparable, because what Dorion wants to pay Sanderson has no bearing on the negotiation between Seider and Yzerman.

 

[Snuggs]

Ed could be another PP1 option. Mo's a decent PP QB, but he isn't elite in that area.

Seider's contract is gonna come in lower than what most people here are expecting. Watch Stevie work his magic. Not worried at all. Mo's not getting over $9M unless he puts up at least 60 points this season. I don't think he will because Ghost will play PP1.

Maybe he's as good as the next guy really but he's not had a real good group of proper forwards to work with?

IMO, plug Seider onto a team like Boston/Tampa/Toronto/Vegas/Florida/Colorado he'd looked pretty special. Worst thing you can say about Seider is his shot isn't elite.

I think he was already better than guys like Filip Hronek outside of his shot.

Everyone's allowed to think what they want, but I'll agree topping 60 points is lofty... still thinks he'll get 9 because he'll be PK1 and possibly PP1 and a top 5 RHD. I look at Seider and think he's the 2nd coming of Rob Blake.

 

[Henkka]

Pretty sure Yzerman is not an idiot and he will find a way to make cut for the smaller caphit for Seider.


It will surprise you all.

 

[lilidk]

Claude Lemieux time, pay back?

 

[Henkka]

Sanderson estimations from evolving-hockey were:

8 years, 7.36M (so they overpaid by 650k)
6-7 years, 6.5M
5 years, 5.8M
3-4 years, 4.9M - 5.3M
2 years 4.1M
1 year 3.9M

Same for Seider:

8 years, 8.55M
5,6,7 years, 6.8M - 7.2M
4 years, 6.46M (not probable, goes straight to UFA)
3 years, 5.9M
1-2 years, 5.0M

Think they should go with 7 years, and cut that 1.3M away vs. the 8-year one.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

I get what the Senators were trying to do here, but they've made a huge gamble on this kid, and he didn't put up impressive offensive numbers in his first (and only) year. Seems like they paid a bit too much, and given the amount of talent they now have (thanks in part to some great ping-pong ball action) this might come back to bite them.

I don't see this anomaly affecting anyone else's contract.

 

[kliq]

Sanderson estimations from evolving-hockey were:

8 years, 7.36M (so they overpaid by 650k)
6-7 years, 6.5M
5 years, 5.8M
3-4 years, 4.9M - 5.3M
2 years 4.1M
1 year 3.9M

Same for Seider:

8 years, 8.55M
5,6,7 years, 6.8M - 7.2M
4 years, 6.46M (not probable, goes straight to UFA)
3 years, 5.9M
1-2 years, 5.0M

Think they should go with 7 years, and cut that 1.3M away vs. the 8-year one.

It’s also Ottawa. Teams that are located in less desirable places to live in tend to have overpay unfortunately. I’m a raptors fan and lions fan and over the years this has always been a thing. I get he’s an RFA not a UFA, but seems like Dorian was trying to keep him happy.

 

[norrisnick]

Sanderson estimations from evolving-hockey were:

8 years, 7.36M (so they overpaid by 650k)
6-7 years, 6.5M
5 years, 5.8M
3-4 years, 4.9M - 5.3M
2 years 4.1M
1 year 3.9M

Same for Seider:

8 years, 8.55M
5,6,7 years, 6.8M - 7.2M
4 years, 6.46M (not probable, goes straight to UFA)
3 years, 5.9M
1-2 years, 5.0M

Think they should go with 7 years, and cut that 1.3M away vs. the 8-year one.

There is something seriously broken with their model if they think a 7 year deal drops that much off the AAV.

 

[Henkka]

There is something seriously broken with their model if they think a 7 year deal drops that much off the AAV.

Why would it be?

Cap could be +120 millilon on those years (if it will grow 5% per year continuously), so it's very lucrative year to cut off from the estimation.

Sanderson as an example:

1st year 6.67M
2nd year 7.13M
3rd year 7.56M
4th year 7.95M
5th year 8.34M
6th year 8.73M
7th year 9.2M
8th year 9.67M

This makes Sanderson 8 years, for 8M average, relatively vs. the estimated cap growth.

Why Yzerman is going with short deals, it's because doesn't want to pile up that potential cap growth on early years.

 

[norrisnick]

Why would it be?

Cap could be +120 millilon on those years (if it will grow 5% per year continuously), so it's very lucrative year to cut off from the estimation.

Sanderson as an example:

1st year 6.67M
2nd year 7.13M
3rd year 7.56M
4th year 7.95M
5th year 8.34M
6th year 8.73M
7th year 9.2M
8th year 9.67M

This makes Sanderson 8 years, for 8M average, relatively vs. the estimated cap growth.

Why Yzerman is going with short deals, it's because doesn't want to pile up that potential cap growth on early years.

Because no player is going to agree to a $1.3M drop in AAV to go from 8 to 7 years. 4 maybe. It makes zero sense to have the biggest drop in AAV to be between 7 and 8 years. That should be the lowest AAV difference.

 

[Gniwder]

This is a good problem to have. I hope all of our prospects are due for huge raises...

Only if the team wins, lol. Start paying players big money for a mediocre team, and the team starts looking a lot like Vancouver who couldn't get over the hump with Horvat, Pettersson, JT, and Hughes.

I don't see Seider getting more than Larkin. All of it depends on how he looks this season, there were games last season where he looked completely disinterested. Hopefully competing for a playoff spot changes that.

I wouldn't be surprised if Stevie did a bridge deal.

 

[Snuggs]

If you can't wrap your mind around paying Seider more than Larkin then I think personally you have to start imaging the return a Seider trade could get because he'll walk in FA, if he's able to hit it.

Legitimately the dude's lined up for a monster year.

Many teams are happy to pay Seider if Yzerman isn't ready to, and I don't think it's a Larkin situation where he feels some loyalty towards the team/town/fans.

 

[Henkka]

Yzerman low-balled Larkin, he is gonna do same for Seider and all for kids pepole in here think are gonna get paid too soon.

They'll put Petry and Ghost to PP to pull that caphit down if needed. There are now ways and tools to manage things.