How the Red Wings attempt to maintain a dynasty caused their demise

[FMichael]

Spot on. You can almost filter it down to purely poor personnel assessment. Of both vets and rookies.

I think a lot of people will knee jerk and say it was the vets that really screwed us, because their contracts are still laboring us. But honestly I think the big killer was poor drafting. We did not draft a single competent Dman for 16 years after Kronwall. That fact is astonishing personally. The myth of superior Wings drafting was the biggest lie for a while.

Remember the hype surrounding Kronwall when he won the Eddie Shore Award in '04/'05?

Lucky for us he didn't disappoint when he became a full-time member of the Wings the following season, and when paired with Stuart they were a damn fine 2nd pairing Dmen.

But yeah - getting old, and not having any luck at the draft eventually leads to disaster.

 

[ChrisReevesLegs]

Remember the hype surrounding Kronwall when he won the Eddie Shore Award in '04/'05?

Lucky for us he didn't disappoint when he became a full-time member of the Wings the following season, and when paired with Stuart they were a damn fine 2nd pairing Dmen.

But yeah - getting old, and not having any luck at the draft eventually leads to disaster.

Stuart Kronner is an insanely good 2nd pairing looking back. Miss those two.

 

[Frk It]

We didn't draft a top4 Dman for 16 years. Not sure what else I need to point out to you to make the point...

Agreed that drafting is sort of a crapshoot, but what I'm saying is our crapshoot turned up only crap. It's pretty obvious...

I’d say we drafted defenseman poorly, but we also went a long period of time choosing to not use a lot of picks on defenseman.

And in that same time frame we did a good job of drafting forwards in the later rounds with Tatar, Nyquist, AA, Filppula, Franzen, Hudler, Bertuzzi, etc.

So I’d say considering everything we were at least average overall.

 

[kliq]

bingo bango ! cuts right through all the red wing fan boys malarky outlooks and gets right to the heart of the matter saving me the time to type it out . and im still seething on a 24/7/365 basis about the 1st for kyle q , i want to go kick a garbage can right now . then there was the day i was put on suicide watch after kenny handed helm whom should have been left to walk a 4x4

Who do you see defending those moves?

Please post an example of this “fan boy malarkey”.

 

[ChrisReevesLegs]

I’d say we drafted defenseman poorly, but we also went a long period of time choosing to not use a lot of picks on defenseman.

And in that same time frame we did a good job of drafting forwards in the later rounds with Tatar, Nyquist, AA, Filppula, Franzen, Hudler, Bertuzzi, etc.

So I’d say considering everything we were at least average overall.

K first start by describing what you consider average.

Pulling 7 mediocre forwards out of 20+ years of drafting isn't what I would consider good. But I'm willing to hear you out if you refine your point here to something discuss-able.

 

[Frk It]

K first start by describing what you consider average.

Pulling 7 mediocre forwards out of 20+ years of drafting isn't what I would consider good. But I'm willing to hear you out if you refine your point here to something discuss-able.

I’ve posted data on this here before quite a bit. Your odds of finding .5 ppg forwards in rounds 2-7 is terrible. Detroit has been able to do this with some level of consistency. It’s harder than people think it is.

 

[ChrisReevesLegs]

I’ve posted data on this before quite a bit. Your odds of finding .5 ppg forwards in rounds 2-7 is terrible. Detroit has been able to do this with some level of consistency. It’s harder than people think it is.

Ok well I'm not aware of illustrious prior credentials.... please share them... I guess?

7 forwards and no Dman out of 20 drafts is BAD. I'd LOVE to see your reasoning why this is the exact opposite mostly because I know you can't produce it.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Holland's obsession with veteran depth caused their demise. He kept giving up prospects and picks for vets they didn't need. There was a time when their 4th and 5th best forwards (Nyquist and Tatar) were playing in the minors because the team was overstocked with redundant vets preventing youngsters from getting a shot.
If he would have saved some of the cap space spent on veteran depth for impact players and not traded away prospects for ****ty veteran depth, the dynasty may have survived still.

Anybody miss the days of Dan Cleary?

Good times. Good times

 

[TheClap]

we bag on the quincey trade all of the time, but we really got pretty decent value for that pick. The guy was here for 256 games over the course of five seasons, putting up 48 points, a +13, and holding down 19-21 minutes a night. Is it as good a value as what Tampa got from that pick? No, but put Quincey up against the average player that comes from that pick and the Wings win that deal more often than not. we can argue he shouldn't have been waived in the first place, but he also could have played better the previous season in GR, and he had a back injury that was serious enough to scuttle a trade to Dallas that fall.

Admittedly, I haven't watched the video but it's not like we haven't had this discussion before. The Wings made some mistakes over the last nine years. They shouldn't have went after Samuelsson The Sequel/Tootoo/Coliacavo/White. They needed to do a better job of picking their core pieces (Z, Kronwall, Nyquist) and moving the ones who weren't (Gator, Helm). Could they have avoided the sort of rebuild they're going through now? Maybe, but they could have also just pushed back the window for this rebuild a few more years, too.

There was no way this organization was going to head into a hard rebuild as far back as 2015, but they could have been more aggressive in fishing for picks/prospects, and probably still been a playoff team on the backs of Z, D, and Kronwall.

We bag on the Quincey trade, because he was already a Red Wing, that was waived, for absolutely nothing, just a few years prior. He could have been all those things for the Red Wings at the meager cost of Derek Meech or asking Chris Chelios to retire or move on. Not a damn first round pick. It was a mismanagement of epic proportions that perfectly encapsulates Ken Hollands failures after 2009.

 

[ChrisReevesLegs]

We bag on the Quincey trade, because he was already a Red Wing, that was waived, for absolutely nothing, just a few years prior. He could have been all those things for the Red Wings at the meager cost of Derek Meech or asking Chris Chelios to retire or move on. Not a damn first round pick. It was a mismanagement of epic proportions that perfectly encapsulates Ken Hollands failures after 2009.

I mean do you honestly think the team would be in a radically different position right now if we had drafted at that pick? genuinely curious

 

[Gniwder]

I mean do you honestly think the team would be in a radically different position right now if we had drafted at that pick? genuinely curious

LOL, I got done reading the contract and you're still here.

It's an accumulation of mistakes, not just one. But regardless, the team was gonna tank sooner or later, that is the reality of the salary cap era. Having assets to sell makes the rebuild process go faster. If Holland hadn't squandered assets, the team would still suck, but would probably have better/more prospecs.

 

[TheClap]

I mean do you honestly think the team would be in a radically different position right now if we had drafted at that pick? genuinely curious

Is the team any better in 2010 and 2011 and beyond with Kyle Quincey learning from Nick Lidstrom, instead of rolling with Meech and Ruslan Salei (RIP)? Probably. Does it make a difference in a 7 game series against the Sharks? Maybe.

Is the team better today if Holland uses the 1st round pick he spent to get him back on the same thing his protege Yzerman did? Considering we have no goalie for the future, absolutely. Would Olli Maatta be an upgrade over Trevor Daley, Bowey, Ericsson, McIlrath, Hicketts, Biega, and Nemeth? Yes. Is there a chance Holland blows that pick? Sure.

Is it ironic that you consider poor drafting to be the cause of the Wings downfall, but then also proceed to argue that trading one of their highest draft picks since 1991 to reaquire a player they gave away for nothing, wasn't a big deal? Yes. Yes it is.

 

[TheClap]

This is a better video. I think SBnation may have botrowed a few things.

 

[Pavels Dog]

K first start by describing what you consider average.

Pulling 7 mediocre forwards out of 20+ years of drafting isn't what I would consider good. But I'm willing to hear you out if you refine your point here to something discuss-able.

20 years ago we drafted Zetterberg so wtf are you even talking about.

There was a ~6-7 year period where we truly struck out (05-12) and that has hurt us and continue to hurt us now.

And anyone who thinks drafting superstars while being the best team in the league is easy/realistic needs a reality check. We didn’t beat the odds, but pretty much no one does anymore.

 

[kliq]

Is the team any better in 2010 and 2011 and beyond with Kyle Quincey learning from Nick Lidstrom, instead of rolling with Meech and Ruslan Salei (RIP)? Probably. Does it make a difference in a 7 game series against the Sharks? Maybe.

Is the team better today if Holland uses the 1st round pick he spent to get him back on the same thing his protege Yzerman did? Considering we have no goalie for the future, absolutely. Would Olli Maatta be an upgrade over Trevor Daley, Bowey, Ericsson, McIlrath, Hicketts, Biega, and Nemeth? Yes. Is there a chance Holland blows that pick? Sure.

Is it ironic that you consider poor drafting to be the cause of the Wings downfall, but then also proceed to argue that trading one of their highest draft picks since 1991 to reaquire a player they gave away for nothing, wasn't a big deal? Yes. Yes it is.

I dont think anyone is arguing that if the Wings kept that 1st round pick they wouldn't have been better off at that time. I think what most are saying (at least I am) is that we were still headed in the direction we were headed in, that pick wouldn't have changed anything. With that said, please don't mistaken that for me saying that the trade wasn't a bad move, it was.

It's an accumulation of mistakes, not just one. But regardless, the team was gonna tank sooner or later, that is the reality of the salary cap era. Having assets to sell makes the rebuild process go faster. If Holland hadn't squandered assets, the team would still suck, but would probably have better/more prospecs.

This I agree with. It is possible to acknowledge that the Wings made mistakes AND they would have ended up where there did. Its not one or the other.


This topic really does remind me of politics. You have two sides who refuse to budge, they have sticking points, and anything that goes against their narrative just leads to name calling, sarcasm, hyperbole or strawman's.

This is a better video. I think SBnation may have botrowed a few things.

I cant get past the first minute, agree or disagree with what he saying aside, I feel like I am listening to an over the top Tom Green impersonator.

 

[pz29]

It's weird, the dynamic between the fans, the brass running the organization, and the players. We sit here chanting for losses each and every game just for a better chance at a #1 pick, the guys up top have their own plans, and the players...they're competitive, they just want to win (every player out there hates losing, I'm sure). I highly doubt the players go out on the ice with the mentality of "lets think long term for the franchise, because we may be bottom feeders in 2 years. The key may be to tank this season, but look good in the process, just to get a stud player to add to the roster next for next season." Nah, they go out their to win, despite what their fans, or GM, thinks.

Holland wanted that 25 year mark, and I'm sure the players wanted to be a part of that as well. Hell, they would have made it a 26th if they could.

Speak for yourself. The minute I begin "chanting for losses," I am not a sports fan anymore. The stupid system in North American pro sports where, in every league, deliberately tanking is encouraged is what is to blame here.

 

[kliq]

Speak for yourself. The minute I begin "chanting for losses," I am not a sports fan anymore. The stupid system in North American pro sports where, in every league, deliberately tanking is encouraged is what is to blame here.

Its true, a system that was originally made to help the teams in the most need evolved into a system where teams purposely put themselves in need to get the most help.

 

[Oddbob]

Holland's obsession with veteran depth caused their demise. He kept giving up prospects and picks for vets they didn't need. There was a time when their 4th and 5th best forwards (Nyquist and Tatar) were playing in the minors because the team was overstocked with redundant vets preventing youngsters from getting a shot.
If he would have saved some of the cap space spent on veteran depth for impact players and not traded away prospects for ****ty veteran depth, the dynasty may have survived still.

What guys did Holland give up on? All of the players he traded for vets were not high end players.

Jarnkrok
Mursak
Janmark
Jurco
Pulkkinen
Backman

WOW, those are some World beaters right there.

 

[Henkka]

It's very funny how Mattias Janmark has always felt like a skilled and talented player lost in trade.

Janmark Dallas-career 2015-2019:
253 games, 42+53 = 75 points. (0.38 points per game)

Comparables:
Justin Abdelkader at same time:
308 games, 45+75 = 110 points (0.39 points per game)

Darren Helm at same time:
285 games, 45+51 = 96 points (0.33 points per game)

So he is kind of in the middle of those guys.

Calle Järnkrok has put up 0.41 points per game at Nashville. Same as Filppula on these 4,5 seasons.

 

[MBH]

I know this is an unpopular opinion here but if you own a franchise that's in the middle of a bonafide dynasty, your ONLY sensible choice is to attempt to maintain that dynasty for as long as possible without regard to what happens after.

That's as overly simplistic as the other extreme - which would have been to trade away Lidstrom/Datsyuk/Zetterberg for picks.

Ken Holland didn't seem to realize there were consequences to five-year deals to grinders like Cleary in a cap world.
Even after the Cleary deal forced the Franzen-Hossa choice, Holland still made awful choices (contracts to Howard, Ericsson, Helm, Abdelkader, Nielsen).

Holland failed to realize, even as Bowman was showing how it was done before his house of cards collapsed, that the key to maintaining a cup champion was letting depth guys walk when they got too expensive.

Bowman won by cutting the Ladds and Versteegs and Byfugliens and letting kids like Shaw, Saad, Leddy, Teravainen, etc take their spot.

Did Bowman make mistakes? Hell yah. But who was the Marian Hossa in his prime he lost?

At the end of the day, Bowman's house of cards didn't collapse because of the guys he moved. It collapsed because of Holland-like contracts to guys like Bickell - which eventually cost him Teravainen, and the mega deals earned Kane/Toews.

Can't really fault Bowman for the Kane/Toews deals.
But I wonder if GMs are learning any lessons from those deals.

 

[GBFP]

It was more about being relevant in order to be able to get enough popular support around ripping off the city to fund the arena and the phantom "District Detroit" project. If they had bottomed out when it was glaringly obvious they needed to, the casuals would have stopped caring during the rebuild and the Joe would have been empty and there would have been no real push for a new Arena.

Red Wings were just part of the con to keep building the Ilitch Empire on tax payer dollars.

 

[TheClap]

I dont think anyone is arguing that if the Wings kept that 1st round pick they wouldn't have been better off at that time. I think what most are saying (at least I am) is that we were still headed in the direction we were headed in, that pick wouldn't have changed anything. With that said, please don't mistaken that for me saying that the trade wasn't a bad move, it was.

Yeah I'm not trying to say we weren't headed in the direction we were in, just that we'd certainly be further along in the rebuild than we are today, with better pieces moving forward.

If the Wings decide to roll with Calle Jarnkrok to see what they had, they keep a cheap young solid 3rd line center, which is still a need today, who also all but outproduced Legwand that same year after the trade anyway. Perhaps more importantly, they keep the 2nd round pick they also lost in that trade. Maybe you miss the playoffs in 2014 (Legwand was being used as a 4th line winger by the end of the year), but you've set yourself up better starting a light rebuild. You start getting cheaper, younger, earlier.

Instead, by the time the Wings were actually dedicating to the rebuild, they had the oldest roster in the league with zero cap space and several immovable roster pieces.

 

[TheClap]

It's very funny how Mattias Janmark has always felt like a skilled and talented player lost in trade.

Janmark Dallas-career 2015-2019:
253 games, 42+53 = 75 points. (0.38 points per game)

Comparables:
Justin Abdelkader at same time:
308 games, 45+75 = 110 points (0.39 points per game)

Darren Helm at same time:
285 games, 45+51 = 96 points (0.33 points per game)

So he is kind of in the middle of those guys.

Calle Järnkrok has put up 0.41 points per game at Nashville. Same as Filppula on these 4,5 seasons.

Just looking at their stats isn't telling anywhere near the whole story. It doesn't tell you about Abby and Helm steep steep drop offs the past couple seasons when Zetterberg and Datsyuk weren't around to pad their stats anymore.

It doesn't tell you about the lost draft picks. The Red Wings also lost a second round picks with each Janmark and Jarnkrok trade. Two total. I should have put a lot more emphasis on that initially.

There's also the salary cap implications. Jarnkrok and Janmark makes $4.3 million a year combined. Helm and Abby, $8.1 million.
So with Janmark and Jarnkrok, you have cheap Abby and Helm replacements and $3.8 million to spare. Go back to the offseason and take away Filppula, and you now have an additional $6.8 million to go toward a much better free agent. Maybe it puts you in the Duchene sweepstakes. Maybe you use it to upgrade the defense with something better than Nemeth. Maybe you do nothing and save money. Any way you slice it, you're better off.

 

[Frk It]

Ok well I'm not aware of illustrious prior credentials.... please share them... I guess?

7 forwards and no Dman out of 20 drafts is BAD. I'd LOVE to see your reasoning why this is the exact opposite mostly because I know you can't produce it.

I’ll pass on continuing with your unnecessarily hostile replies.

Here is a past thread with some data on draft picks and what they yield if you are interested:

Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

 

[ArGarBarGar]

What guys did Holland give up on? All of the players he traded for vets were not high end players.

Jarnkrok
Mursak
Janmark
Jurco
Pulkkinen
Backman

WOW, those are some World beaters right there.

It would have actually been nice to have kept Jarnkrok considering his current contract and the role he can play. No, not a top sixer, but still a worthwhile hockey player.