Salary Cap: How much is too much for McAvoy?

[KrejciMVP]

Everyone saying Mac is a top 10 defender in the league should go have a look at what the top 10 defenderz in the league are making . Now keep in mind we're looking for the top 10 defenders not the highest paid mistakes.

You will find two players,
Karlsson @ 11.5M Among the worst contracts in the league right now.
Doughty @ 11M.

Now let's look at why they are paid what they are paid. Karlsson dragged the Sentors to the conference finals on a broken foot and was easily the most dominant player in the PO's in 2017 plus 2 Norris trophies. Doughty lead his team to two SC victories plus 1 Norris.

Everyone else is making 9.5M or less. Mostly on contracts that were signed in the last two years . The cap hasn't gone up 1 cent since and will not be going up significantly for a few more years to come.

If Mac gets paid anything more than anyone less excluding Karlsson and Doughty it's overpay.

So for all of you who have him in the 11-13M range I fail to understand where you're getting that number. Where are the comparables? Where are the exploits?

Im happy to pay an elite player. I just dont see his offensive or defensive game as elite. very solid player and key player to the Bruins. id be happy if he comes in under 8 AAV, paying 12AAV wont make him elite

 

[Jim]

Im happy to pay an elite player. I just dont see his offensive or defensive game as elite. very solid player and key player to the Bruins. id be happy if he comes in under 8 AAV, paying 12AAV wont make him elite

Exactly

 

[missingchicklet]

Im happy to pay an elite player. I just dont see his offensive or defensive game as elite. very solid player and key player to the Bruins. id be happy if he comes in under 8 AAV, paying 12AAV wont make him elite

His offensive game is far from elite, but his defensive game by most standards is elite (top 10). Throw in the fact he is doing what he's doing without a top-pairing talent playing with him.

I agree that the Bs don't need to be paying stupid money for a guy who has never put up over 32 points or 7 goals in a season. His shooting pct over his 4 years has gone from 9.1% to 5.4% (Playoffs 12.5% to 3.3%). I know that some think he's going to break out offensively at some point. I'm not that convinced. A moderate improvement? Maybe. A big improvement? I've seen nothing to indicate that happening.

Somewhere in the ballpark of $9 mil is very fair for Charlie when overall game is taken into consideration. If he is wanting 8 figures then I would start working out a trade. Can't handcuff the team with a contract for silly money for a player providing the kind of offense Charlie produces. I don't think he will be looking for that kind of money, though.

 

[Gee Wally]

Here is a prime example of a scenario where base pay + incentives would solve the problem. I’m not talking something paltry like $1 million base. I’m saying pay the man $8 million base, and allow him to climb to the $10-$11 million range each year assuming he is able to contribute offensively (on par with expectations of a Norris-type candidate) while not suffering in his own end (something he hasn’t shown signs of), and assuming he hits “x amount of games played”.

The guaranteed money is what kills teams. Nobody minds paying a guy that plays. What pisses people off is paying with hopes that the money suddenly makes a guy better than he is, and 3 years into an 8-year deal, realizing it’s trashola.

unfortunately can only have performance bonuses for ELC or over 35 contracts I believe.

 

[EverettMike]

Im happy to pay an elite player. I just dont see his offensive or defensive game as elite. very solid player and key player to the Bruins. id be happy if he comes in under 8 AAV, paying 12AAV wont make him elite

I now hope he gets 30 million per year for 100 years.

 

[KrejciMVP]

I now hope he gets 30 million per year for 100 years.

me too! lol

 

[loosemoose]

His offensive game is far from elite, but his defensive game by most standards is elite (top 10). Throw in the fact he is doing what he's doing without a top-pairing talent playing with him.

I agree that the Bs don't need to be paying stupid money for a guy who has never put up over 32 points or 7 goals in a season. His shooting pct over his 4 years has gone from 9.1% to 5.4% (Playoffs 12.5% to 3.3%). I know that some think he's going to break out offensively at some point. I'm not that convinced. A moderate improvement? Maybe. A big improvement? I've seen nothing to indicate that happening.

Somewhere in the ballpark of $9 mil is very fair for Charlie when overall game is taken into consideration. If he is wanting 8 figures then I would start working out a trade. Can't handcuff the team with a contract for silly money for a player providing the kind of offense Charlie produces. I don't think he will be looking for that kind of money, though.

Nah his offensive game is brilliant. He's a top-5 defenceman in the NHL at driving offense at 5 on 5. He just doesn't score a lot on PP, largely due to not getting too many opportunities with the top unit.

In a world where guys like Jones, Werenski and Nurse are making 9.5 million dollars it's little silly to say that McAvoy doesn't deserve at least 10. If he used those three as his comparables he should be starting his negotiations with 12 million.

 

[Smitty93]

Everyone saying Mac is a top 10 defender in the league should go have a look at what the top 10 defenderz in the league are making . Now keep in mind we're looking for the top 10 defenders not the highest paid mistakes.

You will find two players,
Karlsson @ 11.5M Among the worst contracts in the league right now.
Doughty @ 11M.

Now let's look at why they are paid what they are paid. Karlsson dragged the Sentors to the conference finals on a broken foot and was easily the most dominant player in the PO's in 2017 plus 2 Norris trophies. Doughty lead his team to two SC victories plus 1 Norris.

Everyone else is making 9.5M or less. Mostly on contracts that were signed in the last two years . The cap hasn't gone up 1 cent since and will not be going up significantly for a few more years to come.

If Mac gets paid anything more than anyone less excluding Karlsson and Doughty it's overpay.

So for all of you who have him in the 11-13M range I fail to understand where you're getting that number. Where are the comparables? Where are the exploits?

I think you're misinterpreting the "walk away" number as what people think he will actually get. My interpretation of the question is basically 'If McAvoy asked for $X, would you be willing to walk away from him and trade him?' I answered $12M, but here's how I got there.

• Anything under $9M would be amazing. Based on the recent contracts signed by defensemen, that's a fantasy.
• $9-10M is most likely where he lands. That's fair market value.
• $10-11M is where I start to get uncomfortable. I wouldn't love it, but I'm not walking away at this level. This is the high end of his potential next contract
• At $11-12M, I would start to hate the deal, but knowing how irreplaceable he is internally and externally, I'd probably still begrudgingly agree to it. I don't actually think this would be McAvoy's ask.
• At $12M, he's basically telling me he doesn't want to be here, and that's when you'd trade him.

 

[JOKER 192]

I think you're misinterpreting the "walk away" number as what people think he will actually get. My interpretation of the question is basically 'If McAvoy asked for $X, would you be willing to walk away from him and trade him?' I answered $12M, but here's how I got there.

• Anything under $9M would be amazing. Based on the recent contracts signed by defensemen, that's a fantasy.
• $9-10M is most likely where he lands. That's fair market value.
• $10-11M is where I start to get uncomfortable. I wouldn't love it, but I'm not walking away at this level. This is the high end of his potential next contract
• At $11-12M, I would start to hate the deal, but knowing how irreplaceable he is internally and externally, I'd probably still begrudgingly agree to it. I don't actually think this would be McAvoy's ask.
• At $12M, he's basically telling me he doesn't want to be here, and that's when you'd trade him.

The issue I have with doling out overpay contracts is that it's then where the bar is set.

You got Bergy needing a new deal next year and Pasta the year after. If Mac gets 11M there is an argument to be made that those two players should get something in the same neighborhood. They are just as important, or more so, to the team as Mac is.

My walk away number is set at a reluctant 9M for Mac. I think it should and will be 8.5

 

[Pia8988]

Nah his offensive game is brilliant. He's a top-5 defenceman in the NHL at driving offense at 5 on 5. He just doesn't score a lot on PP, largely due to not getting too many opportunities with the top unit.

In a world where guys like Jones, Werenski and Nurse are making 9.5 million dollars it's little silly to say that McAvoy doesn't deserve at least 10. If he used those three as his comparables he should be starting his negotiations with 12 million.

he is actively bad on the PP. not because of usage.because of himself. Elite #1 D everywhere else though

 

[Smitty93]

The issue I have with doling out overpay contracts is that it's then where the bar is set.

You got Bergy needing a new deal next year and Pasta the year after. If Mac gets 11M there is an argument to be made that those two players should get something in the same neighborhood. They are just as important, or more so, to the team as Mac is.

My walk away number is set at a reluctant 9M for Mac. I think it should and will be 8.5

There's 0.0% chance he's taking $8.5 on anything more than a bridge deal. That's just completely unrealistic for where the market is. All his agent has to do is point to Jones, Nurse, and Werenski, and say he's better than them, because he is.

 

[Jim]

There's 0.0% chance he's taking $8.5 on anything more than a bridge deal. That's just completely unrealistic for where the market is. All his agent has to do is point to Jones, Nurse, and Werenski, and say he's better than them, because he is.

Nurse is not a comparable…he signed to play in the arctic circle. Any GM should push back hard on using an Edmonton player as a comparison.

Werenski is about the only player Columbus has managed to hold onto; no wonder they had to lay down the cash. Jones…well, he had to go somewhere else because Columbus overpaid for one defenseman and couldn’t build a team doing it twice. He’s the poster boy for what happens when a team spreads themselves too thin by overcommitting to one guy.

McAvoy’s agent is welcome to make his argument, and Sweeney shouldn’t hold back doing the same.

 

[wintersej]

he is actively bad on the PP. not because of usage.because of himself. Elite #1 D everywhere else though

He had 8 PP points in 11 postseason games this year because he was on the #1PP.

He only had 8 PP points the whole season playing with Charlie Coyle and, shoot, I don't even remember who was on PP2 it was so bad.

 

[UncleRico]

The issue I have with doling out overpay contracts is that it's then where the bar is set.

You got Bergy needing a new deal next year and Pasta the year after. If Mac gets 11M there is an argument to be made that those two players should get something in the same neighborhood. They are just as important, or more so, to the team as Mac is.

My walk away number is set at a reluctant 9M for Mac. I think it should and will be 8.5

Bergeron is going into his age 36 season next year. If he gets a next contract from the bruins it will be for his age 37 year. In no way will he be getting paid big money.

Realistically this team is about to suck in 2-3 years because they will be in full rebuild due to not having a first or 2nd line center and no top pairing LHD. Just let bergy walk if he wants anything more than $4m a year over a year year span.

Give Pasta and McAvoy the same contract and by the time the rebuild is over the cap will be going up again and they will be on what is viewed as cheap deals for when the team is ramping up again.

Those deals are probably going to be in the high 8 to mid 9 million range tho. Pasta might be lower because he’s mentioned in the past that he really doesn’t care about his salary.

 

[JOKER 192]

Bergeron is going into his age 36 season next year. If he gets a next contract from the bruins it will be for his age 37 year. In no way will he be getting paid big money.

Realistically this team is about to suck in 2-3 years because they will be in full rebuild due to not having a first or 2nd line center and no top pairing LHD. Just let bergy walk if he wants anything more than $4m a year over a year year span.

So let me get this straight, Bergy, team captain, Selke candidate every season , who has been running at roughly PPG for the last 4 seasons get's 4M. Mac get's 11, ya that makes perfect sense.

 

[UncleRico]

So let me get this straight, Bergy, team captain, Selke candidate every season , who has been running at roughly PPG for the last 4 seasons get's 4M. Mac get's 11, ya that makes perfect sense.

Yes you pay young and upcoming players not old aging veterans. Very simply widely known concept.

Chara norris trophy winner, team captains, got paid less and less after his big contract as he became an again vet.

 

[finchster]

Charlie McAvoy is more Ryan Suter than a prime Drew Doughty in my opinion

 

[UncleRico]

Charlie McAvoy is more Ryan Suter than a prime Drew Doughty in my opinion

Suter had six top 10 finishes in Norris voting as well as a 2nd,4th and 5th. Pretty damn good.

 

[Montecristo]

Nah his offensive game is brilliant. He's a top-5 defenceman in the NHL at driving offense at 5 on 5. He just doesn't score a lot on PP, largely due to not getting too many opportunities with the top unit.

In a world where guys like Jones, Werenski and Nurse are making 9.5 million dollars it's little silly to say that McAvoy doesn't deserve at least 10. If he used those three as his comparables he should be starting his negotiations with 12 million.

his offensive game isnt brilliant because he has a horrible shot. You cant be great at offense if you stink at the shooting part.

 

[Montecristo]

There's 0.0% chance he's taking $8.5 on anything more than a bridge deal. That's just completely unrealistic for where the market is. All his agent has to do is point to Jones, Nurse, and Werenski, and say he's better than them, because he is.

not according to the stats/games played

 

[JOKER 192]

Yes you pay young and upcoming players not old aging veterans. Very simply widely known concept.

Chara norris trophy winner, team captains, got paid less and less after his big contract as he became an again vet.

Chara got paid just under 7M AAV passed his 40ies. He was also well in to his decline by then, Bergy hasn't shown any sign of decline yet.

 

[UncleRico]

Chara got paid just under 7M AAV passed his 40ies. He was also well in to his decline by then, Bergy hasn't shown any sign of decline yet.

Lol chara made 6.5m at age 40 from a contract he signed at age 33 then every contract after that he made less.

Players don’t make more AAV on new contracts at age 37. Never mind you suggesting he will be making whatever McAvoy makes. It just doesn’t happen in the NHL.

You don’t pay for past performances in the NHL you pay on future projections. At least the good teams don’t, maybe if you’re a small market team trying to attract fans like a florida panthers signing jagr

 

[KrejciMVP]

his offensive game isnt brilliant because he has a horrible shot. You cant be great at offense if you stink at the shooting part.

just a minor red flag if a player wants elite money. PAY HIM!

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Nah his offensive game is brilliant. He's a top-5 defenceman in the NHL at driving offense at 5 on 5. He just doesn't score a lot on PP, largely due to not getting too many opportunities with the top unit.

In a world where guys like Jones, Werenski and Nurse are making 9.5 million dollars it's little silly to say that McAvoy doesn't deserve at least 10. If he used those three as his comparables he should be starting his negotiations with 12 million.

Brilliant is a stretch. McAvoy's 16 5v5 points in 2021 put him equal 30th in the league, and well behind Jakob Chychrun's lead-leading 26. He wasn't even the top Bruin, being beaten by admittedly late-entry Reilly, and Gryz's PPG was also better. The guys putting up the really high even strength numbers are otherwise largely who you'd expect - Carlson, Weegar, Theodore, Nurse, Chabot, Martinez, Barrie and Letang. 2020 was better - Chucky was equal 7th and his 26 5v5 points put him pretty much on a par with the other top guys except Josi, Carlson, Ekblad and Makar.

Add that to the eye test and the unquantifiables, and I think it's safe to say that McAvoy is very good in terms of his offensive playmaking and passing abilities. But I think there's a distinction between very good and brilliant or elite. There's a level that a handful of those other guys are on that Charlie can't reach, and when you also factor in his weak shot, IMO his all-round offensive game comes up a bit short of the very best. And I've never really bought the argument that if only he had more PP time then he'd shine on it. For sure he'd bank a few more points, but he's not really a threat from the point and his passing is decent, but he's not Krug. Clearly Cassidy doesn't overly rate his abilities in this area either, so I don't think I'm going out on a limb with that assessment.

Exactly how much that impacts on McAvoy's value is debatable. To me Nurse, Werenski and Jones are all slightly better offensively than him - Nurse pretty much in all areas, Werenski and Jones because they are superior shooters and PP performers, although their even strength play is really no better and Jones seems to have declined of late. But then Charlie is at least as good defensively as all of them, even allowing that there are still a couple of deficiencies in that aspect of his game that he can continue to work on. So if those guys can all hit the 9s, as can a superior offensive but inferior defensive player in Hamilton, then I'd say that's the benchmark right there, and at the very least McAvoy's going to come in just under that. So I'd say below 8.5 is a steal, 8.5 to 10 is just fine, above 10-10.5 I start to get edgy and consider my options.

 

[Pia8988]

He had 8 PP points in 11 postseason games this year because he was on the #1PP.

He only had 8 PP points the whole season playing with Charlie Coyle and, shoot, I don't even remember who was on PP2 it was so bad.

His PP production in the regular season was mostly a result of being on PP 1. Elite D, mediocre PP QB.