Salary Cap: How much is too much for McAvoy?

[GoBs]

I have said it in previous posts
Get Gryz off that top PP and you will see a bump in McAvoy’s numbers

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Brilliant is a stretch. McAvoy's 16 5v5 points in 2021 put him equal 30th in the league, and well behind Jakob Chychrun's lead-leading 26. He wasn't even the top Bruin, being beaten by admittedly late-entry Reilly, and Gryz's PPG was also better. The guys putting up the really high even strength numbers are otherwise largely who you'd expect - Carlson, Weegar, Theodore, Nurse, Chabot, Martinez, Barrie and Letang. 2020 was better - Chucky was equal 7th and his 26 5v5 points put him pretty much on a par with the other top guys except Josi, Carlson, Ekblad and Makar.

Add that to the eye test and the unquantifiables, and I think it's safe to say that McAvoy is very good in terms of his offensive playmaking and passing abilities. But I think there's a distinction between very good and brilliant or elite. There's a level that a handful of those other guys are on that Charlie can't reach, and when you also factor in his weak shot, IMO his all-round offensive game comes up a bit short of the very best. And I've never really bought the argument that if only he had more PP time then he'd shine on it. For sure he'd bank a few more points, but he's not really a threat from the point and his passing is decent, but he's not Krug. Clearly Cassidy doesn't overly rate his abilities in this area either, so I don't think I'm going out on a limb with that assessment.

Exactly how much that impacts on McAvoy's value is debatable. To me Nurse, Werenski and Jones are all slightly better offensively than him - Nurse pretty much in all areas, Werenski and Jones because they are superior shooters and PP performers, although their even strength play is really no better and Jones seems to have declined of late. But then Charlie is at least as good defensively as all of them, even allowing that there are still a couple of deficiencies in that aspect of his game that he can continue to work on. So if those guys can all hit the 9s, as can a superior offensive but inferior defensive player in Hamilton, then I'd say that's the benchmark right there, and at the very least McAvoy's going to come in just under that. So I'd say below 8.5 is a steal, 8.5 to 10 is just fine, above 10-10.5 I start to get edgy and consider my options.

Considering how much of McAvoy's ice time is spent with the best line in the league, his offensive numbers may be somewhat inflated.

Still, he's only 23 and will improve with experience and more time on the power pay. Will cut down on the times he gets caught up ice.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Considering how much of McAvoy's ice time is spent with the best line in the league, his offensive numbers may be somewhat inflated.

Still, he's only 23 and will improve with experience and more time on the power pay. Will cut down on the times he gets caught up ice.

I'd say most of the top defenders spend a significant amount of TOI with the top forward lines of their teams, although I would concede that Cassidy likes to go to his top line/top pair combo more than most, for understandable reasons. So I'd call it a factor in McAvoy's production, but not an overly disproportionate one relative to other quality defenders.

The amount of times he's caught up ice I've noticed as well. Happens to everyone sometimes, but a few guys, like Hedman, are able to get away with it because they recover quickly and are excellent backcheckers. McAvoy's not bad in that regard but there's probably room for improvement.

And that's a general question with Charlie - as you said, he's only 23. Jones is 26 and looks to have peaked, although he may yet prove that wrong, Hamilton at 28 is certainly in his prime, Nurse, also 26, may not quite have reached his ceiling yet but he isn't far off. But Werenski is only 24 and has been in the NHL only a year longer than McAvoy, and he'll almost certainly be a better player in 2 years than he is now. That's the most direct comparison for me with Chucky, even though they are slightly different types of players - $9.58 AAV for Zach right now feels like an overpay but Columbus will be hoping that in a couple of years it looks like terrific value. Same goes for McAvoy - how much better, both offensively and defensively, can he reasonably be expected to get? That's what Sweeney's going to have to weigh up in his negotiations.

 

[JOKER 192]

I have said it in previous posts
Get Gryz off that top PP and you will see a bump in McAvoy’s numbers

You probably will but you'll also see a PP operating at a lower clip.

 

[wintersej]

Considering how much of McAvoy's ice time is spent with the best line in the league, his offensive numbers may be somewhat inflated.

Still, he's only 23 and will improve with experience and more time on the power pay. Will cut down on the times he gets caught up ice.

Show your work before throwing this out there, please. McAvoy played less with any of the top line than Makar played with MacKinnon, for instance.

 

[wintersej]

You probably will but you'll also see a PP operating at a lower clip.

Is that what you saw in the playoffs? I saw a team that finished second in PP goals amongst all playoff teams in only 11 games with McAvoy at the top of the umbrella getting 8 power play points in those 11 games. Maybe I was watching a different feed.

 

[BobbyAwe]

They HAVE to pay him what he wants.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Show your work before throwing this out there, please. McAvoy played less with any of the top line than Makar played with MacKinnon, for instance.

I have no work to show.

Just an observation.

Wasn't comparing him to other defensemen since none of them played with the best line in the league.

 

[EverettMike]

At this point in this thread I hope they also name him head coach and general manager.

 

[Lobster57]

At this point in this thread I hope they also name him head coach and general manager.

Sox should use him out of the bullpen

 

[hrdpuk]

whatever he wants lock him up long term

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

At this point in this thread I hope they also name him head coach and general manager.

But dude. Ya gotta understand… Charlie McAvoy just isn’t that good.

 

[EverettMike]

Legit stunned if our guy signs for anything less than 10 per.