How Many Points Will The Leafs Get Next Season?

[Weltschmerz]

Hunwick --- Phaneuf

you have Hunwick in the top 4 and think they will improve that way? good luck with that one

 

[Nylanders Flow]

We're a pretty terrible team, while we may not be as consistently bad as we were down the stretch, we won't at any point be as good as we were to begin last season without Kessel banging them in, so it'll even up. Most likely a bottom 2 team, bottom 5 at best.

 

[Mess]

you have Hunwick in the top 4 and think they will improve that way? good luck with that one

I think Rielly and Gardiner are the ones that will see the greatest impact and development under Babcock seeing their games improve exponentially.

Hunwick is a strong Corsi player and reliable vet that Babcock will count on situationally. Hunwick played 55 games on D for the NYR that was among the best defensive teams and may provide a good vet partner for one of the youngsters.

We might logically see

Gardiner -- Phaneuf
Rielly --- Hunwick
Robidas -- Polak

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Not sure why PAP is being pegged on the top line. I expect him to be a regular healthy scratch by November, and guys like Winnik, Bozak, Lupul and even Hunwick and Polak should get shipped out by trade d-day for picks.

Think some need to temper expectations with Babcock. Doubt the Leafs will cross 65 points next season

Predict we will have a 25-45-12 record next season, for 62 points. I was right on the money for last season's record too

 

[Mess]

Not sure why PAP is being pegged on the top line. I expect him to be a regular healthy scratch by November, and guys like Winnik, Bozak, Lupul and even Hunwick and Polak should get shipped out by trade d-day for picks.

Think some need to temper expectations with Babcock. Doubt the Leafs will cross 65 points next season

Predict we will have a 25-45-12 record next season, for 62 points. I was right on the money for last season's record too

PAP is a potential trade deadline project and as such Leafs are going to want to build up his trade value. Santo and Winnik type more draft picks accumulation potential.

Also with Kessel gone have you seen Leafs RW depth chart?

2 years ago PAP had 18-49-67 points with the NYI and perhaps Leafs think they can rekindle some of that magic this year. Kessel had 25-36-61 points last year so how much of that offense can PAP replace given top 6 minutes and PP time?.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Not sure why PAP is being pegged on the top line. I expect him to be a regular healthy scratch by November, and guys like Winnik, Bozak, Lupul and even Hunwick and Polak should get shipped out by trade d-day for picks.

Think some need to temper expectations with Babcock. Doubt the Leafs will cross 65 points next season

Predict we will have a 25-45-12 record next season, for 62 points. I was right on the money for last season's record too

you really were. i remember

that's what I keep telling people. it's not being a debbie downer, or whatever - I just think a lot of people are expecting Babcock to be all 2002-2003 Ducks (or even 2014 Wings) with this team, seriously needs step back and look at everything realistically (as trapper and I pointed out).

Generally, the reason why we tended to get out hot through the gate the past few years - was because of our offense. We shot our brains out, scored a lot of goals, and than hung on for dear life. Babcock will adjust the 'hanging on" part - but the offense part will be drastically impacted. Not just the Kessel factor (ie: our forwards offense ran through Phil), but our defensive Offense sucked too. Dion's numbers were lower than they were the year before, (and that was a career low). We don't have Franson, so our powerplay (even with Hiller) is already down 2 key components.

And we're not defensively strong enough (and Bernier is not Carey Price enough), to ride a sub 220 goal for, and a sub 200 goals against to the playoffs.

And the cavalry that is Nylander and Brown, aren't making the team. they'll be players like Leivo, and Carrick and Percy.

Babcock is many things, but..yeah. to expect a 20+ point jump?
(also anyone realise that Babock's picture on wiki is still red-wing oriented? we need to change that puppy)

 

[InterceptSchenn]

wild card. Arcobello the saviour!

 

[Atomos2]

This team can't score and can't defend. How far could we possibly go?

 

[mikeyz]

70 to 80. I think that's being optimistic. This team is awful on paper. I kinda wouldn't be surprised if they overachieve, though, and blow us away by actually being in a playoff race.

With Babcock as the coach I don't think we will be as bad as most people think on here

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Can't see them breaking 70.

 

[Suntouchable13]

With Babcock as the coach I don't think we will be as bad as most people think on here

I think he is a great coach, but people around here are thinking that he is something that he is not. He is not head and shoulders above any coach in the league. He is also not a miracle worker.

 

[Bluelines]

I'm a firm believer in "Defense wins Championships" and last year Chicago scored only 229 goals for compared to Leafs 211 (-18 GF) and won the Stanley Cup through structure and defense.

I believe Babcock will instill a structure and system with the current player personnel that will see the goal against 4th worst (262 GA) improve significantly and that will result in the wins and points increasing from last year. Kessel was the weakest link defensive so his loss is addition by subtraction to make the Leafs a better 200 foot team.

Horachek won only 9 of his 42 games as coach that resulted in the 68 point finish last year. A Babcock coached team couldn't come close to that level of futility and ineptitude.

Coach Babcock's NHL coaching record = Totals 950 games 527 wins 285 losses 19 ties 119 OTL = .627 winning %. (regular season)

So I'm personally not expecting a below .500 record this year from a coach with a historical .627 (over almost 1000 games), unless this roster is still gutted for futures before this season starts.

I hope you are right BUT we have no Zetterbergs or Datsyuks or Lidstroms on our roster, sometimes coaches W/L records are the beneficiary of great players. I think Babs had 6 HOF or future HOF on that roster, sometimes good fortune shines on you. I think with all the roster uncertainty and stress that comes with that, the circus that is the Toronto sports media, there will be many players who perform well under their norms and we don't have a lot of players who play well under pressure.

If we are anywhere near .500 Babs deserves a statue in front of the ACC.

 

[Bluelines]

It will take a few months to break some of bad habits. As well as learn to play with and for one another.

As I said above, GA/GF will play a huge part.

Babcock with what he had with Detroit.
GF - 235
GA - 221

Babcock with what he has on the Leafs.
GF - 211
GA - 262

Now without Kessel, you have to expect the GF to drop.
Probably under 200.
Now how much can he take off the GA?
10,20,30?
Even with hard work (but that's key), this should still be a bottom 5 team.

That prediction feels close to reality to me too. I posted in another thread my prediction is the Leafs will score 205 goals and allow 226. I have a feeling that Babs tighter defence system will be a great success after xmas.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Losing Kessel and getting Babcock.

Means we will try harder but score way less.We will get about 65 pts., maybe 70. Mike spoke of "pain", he meant next year.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

I just don't see it in PAP, Mess. He looked like a fringe NHLer with a defense - first minded coach under Therrien, and I don't see it being any different under Babcock

Dude is good for shootout goals, but we won't be seeing many of those now that a 3vs3 system is in place.

you really were. i remember

that's what I keep telling people. it's not being a debbie downer, or whatever - I just think a lot of people are expecting Babcock to be all 2002-2003 Ducks (or even 2014 Wings) with this team, seriously needs step back and look at everything realistically (as trapper and I pointed out).

Generally, the reason why we tended to get out hot through the gate the past few years - was because of our offense. We shot our brains out, scored a lot of goals, and than hung on for dear life. Babcock will adjust the 'hanging on" part - but the offense part will be drastically impacted. Not just the Kessel factor (ie: our forwards offense ran through Phil), but our defensive Offense sucked too. Dion's numbers were lower than they were the year before, (and that was a career low). We don't have Franson, so our powerplay (even with Hiller) is already down 2 key components.

And we're not defensively strong enough (and Bernier is not Carey Price enough), to ride a sub 220 goal for, and a sub 200 goals against to the playoffs.

And the cavalry that is Nylander and Brown, aren't making the team. they'll be players like Leivo, and Carrick and Percy.

Babcock is many things, but..yeah. to expect a 20+ point jump?
(also anyone realise that Babock's picture on wiki is still red-wing oriented? we need to change that puppy)

That's a good point. Kessel was a PPG player and JVR and Bozak were on terrific point paces as well under Carlyle, while the Leafs were a .500+ team. Then those 3 disappeared and the Leafs tanked down the standings with them

Babcock isn't going to work miracles, and I feel like people who are expecting ~10-20+ point improvements are going to be the first to blame Mike if the Leafs do worse than last season. There's going to be a whole lot of pain next season, and emphasis on player development especially after trade d-day

 

[Trapper]

PAP is a potential trade deadline project and as such Leafs are going to want to build up his trade value. Santo and Winnik type more draft picks accumulation potential.

Also with Kessel gone have you seen Leafs RW depth chart?

2 years ago PAP had 18-49-67 points with the NYI and perhaps Leafs think they can rekindle some of that magic this year. Kessel had 25-36-61 points last year so how much of that offense can PAP replace given top 6 minutes and PP time?.

I don't see it with PAP. Both he and Moulson were products of Tavares. Now look at both. I know Moulson plays on a rebuilding team now but so does Parenteau.
Colorado traded him shortly after signing him and Montreal bought him out. He has lost more than a step and failed to keep up with the Habs.
Quality guy who has had to work hard to make it to the NHL, but aside from that, he's on a decline. I don't see more than 30 points from him.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Even if you think Kessel was a huge drag on the team's defense (which is frankly absurd), 2/3 of his line is still here. Is Babcock going to get JVr and Bozak to commit to two-way play? Who's going to replace Kessel's production on the PP?

 

[Ovate]

Last year was the McDavid draft, which negatively affected the points of bottom feeding teams as they tried to out-tank each other. I think something like 2013-2014 is a better projection of where bottom teams will fall.

2014-2015 had the bottom 5 teams in the 54-71 point range, becoming 56-71 if you exclude the absolute worst team.

2013-2014 had the bottom 5 teams in the 52-79 point range, becoming 66-79 if you exclude the absolute worst team.

I very much doubt we will be an actively tanking absolute worst team, so I expect a finish with 65-80 points.

 

[ECanuck]

I would guess around 65 points. Don't quote me on that if they make the playoffs.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Not sure why PAP is being pegged on the top line. I expect him to be a regular healthy scratch by November, and guys like Winnik, Bozak, Lupul and even Hunwick and Polak should get shipped out by trade d-day for picks.

Think some need to temper expectations with Babcock. Doubt the Leafs will cross 65 points next season

Predict we will have a 25-45-12 record next season, for 62 points. I was right on the money for last season's record too

Winnick won't be deadline trade bait this time sorry.

 

[slozo]

There will be a Babcock factor, and he is a very good coach . . . but it takes time to implement systems, etc, and get that ball of wax rolling from the bottom up.

With Phaneuf - I'll say, 76 pts.
Without Phaneuf (sure there'll be a replacement) - 72 pts.

I see Reilly as our true top defender this year, he progresses forward nicely.
I see Bernier being a bit better than last year, providing very solid goaltending.
I have no clue what JVR and Kadri will bring under Babs, but we'll see.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Dubas/Shanny have an eye for productive players from a small sample size. Robdas/Polak/Winnik/Santorelli.

Babcock can get them to play. Look at detroit last year. They should not have been a 100 point team.

I say the Leafs get 80 points.

 

[613Leafer]

The roster isnt all that different than last years, it just doesnt have Kessel on it, and then swap Arcobello, Hunwick, Spaling, etc for Santorelli, Booth, and Franson. Given that our top forward line was by far our worst line 5 on 5, i dont think its a given that the team will do worse.

Especially given that our goaltending underperformed last season, and could regress back to the mean and show improvement, guys like Rielly, Kadri, Holland, Gardiner, etc could (or could not) take big steps forward this season, and Babcock could have a positive impact.

Remember preseason predictions last year? Most people had Calgary in the bottom 5, and Ottawa/Winnipeg in the bottom 5-10. I think there's a half-decent chance we finish with slightly more points than last season, but dont see us really fighting for a playoff spot.

 

[Stigma]

The roster isnt all that different than last years, it just doesnt have Kessel on it, and then swap Arcobello, Hunwick, Spaling, etc for Santorelli, Booth, and Franson. Given that our top forward line was by far our worst line 5 on 5, i dont think its a given that the team will do worse.

Especially given that our goaltending underperformed last season, and could regress back to the mean and show improvement, guys like Rielly, Kadri, Holland, Gardiner, etc could (or could not) take big steps forward this season, and Babcock could have a positive impact.

Remember preseason predictions last year? Most people had Calgary in the bottom 5, and Ottawa/Winnipeg in the bottom 5-10. I think there's a half-decent chance we finish with slightly more points than last season, but dont see us really fighting for a playoff spot.

yes...this.

I think a lot of people are assuming that Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Holland, Gardiner, Panick.....will all stall this year. I think some of them will have big years. Also, we don't even know what Arcobello, Hunwick and Spalling will bring to the table. Let's see first. Edmonton fans have also said that Marincin was decent for them last year. Also, Frattin, Leivo and some Marlie call ups may impress and have a break out season. I'm not saying this team is playoff contenders or a bubble team, but maybe not bottom 2 either.

Yeah, there could be some wishful thinking going on here, but wishful thinking goes both ways. Some want the Calgary Flames, others wish for us to be terrible so we can get a great pick next year.

 

[Faltorvo]

Too early to even think about it right now

one needs to see how our roster will flush out and the other cellar dwellers.

2 big turn of events so far, kessel gone,babs in , real hard to measure that just yet

and then there is, as always the tender factor

a hot starter can sway season totals by 10 or more, just on their own and those nutters are really hard to read.


but as it sits right now, I have us in the cellar once again.

I want to be optimistic and say last place but I don't think that is in the cards

I predicted a 5th last place finish if we did not get vezina/mvp type numbers out of berny and we did not.