How Many Points Will The Leafs Get Next Season?
- Thread starter PuckMagi
- Start date
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
With Kessel gone your not only losing his offensive production, but his linemates will take a dive as well.
If he leafs want to win games they've got a find a way to make up a ton of games.
Even with the Babcock bump the highest I see this team climbing is 5th last in the league.
If he leafs want to win games they've got a find a way to make up a ton of games.
Even with the Babcock bump the highest I see this team climbing is 5th last in the league.
Great, now take that Wings team and imagine Datsyuk and Zetterberg missed all 82 games and that they've never had proper coaching in their professional lives and that's closer to the Leafs.
frankthetank91
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2011
- 3,782
- 54
I'll go on record and say we finish with a few more points than last season. I think it would be hard to play as bad/uninspired as we did last season.
Pyromaniac3
Registered User
He had Nyquist and Tatar filling in. I 100% don't expect Nylander or any other prospect in the NHL next season.
Our bottom 6 is gonna be extremely good. But we probably have one of the worst top 6 lineup in the league.
And the frustrating part was hearing Carlyle continuously talk about how we needed to run 4 lines, yet he never really did it. Trevor Smith played 54 games for us last season. WTF was that about? Then we had Sil for 21 games. I didn't mind Sil as much because at that point we were in full on tank mode.
But we did have some options last year that would have allowed us to run with 4 pretty good lines.
Granted, it was a step in the right direction from Orr and McLaren... but playing our 4th line for less than 8 minutes a game wasn't exactly what I think we all had in mind.
A consequence of this is that our 1st line was relied upon too heavily and they were too lazy to get back and play defense. If everyone took quick shifts and all the forwards averaged roughly 15 minutes of ice time per game... then guys like Kessel would have been more willing to skate hard the entire shift knowing that he has to make the most out of the time he's given and he'll get enough of a rest between shifts.
Mess
Global Moderator
Kessel scored 25 goals last year and I think Parenteau playing top 6 minutes will score 20+.
Kessel @-34 +/- was one of the weakest players defensive and a liability resulting in a high goals against his removal is addition by subtraction and Leafs goals against will go down.
With Winnk and Babcock I expect a stronger PK = less goals against.
Leafs gave up 262 GA last year and bottom 5 overall and without Kessel and with Babcock I guessing that number to go down by about 25-30 GA.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
As I see it, the team only has three legitimate top dozers with JVR, Kadri and Lupul when healthy.
Panik and Holland may surprise, or perhaps Nylander or a Brown will be able to make the jump from the AHL. But as it stands, the top six is in rough shape.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Yea Kessel only had 25 goals in a down year, he also had 36 assists. The Team's offense next year will suffer with that playmaking ability gone.
Plus minus is also a pretty lousy measure of individual players effectiveness on defensive play.
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014/6/5/5602668/why-plus-minus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey
Mitchy
#HFOutcasts
72ish points is my prediction.Our roster is worse than last years, but our coach is also much better. I think a modest improvement in points is likely. Hopefully, we'll land a top 2 pick.
Trapper
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2013
- 24,167
- 11,859
Stigma
Registered User
I agree with Mess. The Babcock factor alone will result in improvement.
Also, odds are some of our players will show growth. Whether it's Panik, Gardiner, Holland, Leivo, Frattin, JVR, or Kadri, they're not all going to be as awful as last year. Some may even show a vast improvement under a new system. Also, you never know, Lupul may actually be healthy this year. A minor miracle may happen.
You also have motivated short-term, free-agents like Spaling, Arcobello and P.A. They will be playing hard for a contract.
Marincin may surprise too and we may also see a bunch of Marlies (including Brown and Nylander) make it to the big club and do okay.
Add that all together and it may result in an 80-85 point team.
Or maybe I'm delusional.
Also, odds are some of our players will show growth. Whether it's Panik, Gardiner, Holland, Leivo, Frattin, JVR, or Kadri, they're not all going to be as awful as last year. Some may even show a vast improvement under a new system. Also, you never know, Lupul may actually be healthy this year. A minor miracle may happen.
You also have motivated short-term, free-agents like Spaling, Arcobello and P.A. They will be playing hard for a contract.
Marincin may surprise too and we may also see a bunch of Marlies (including Brown and Nylander) make it to the big club and do okay.
Add that all together and it may result in an 80-85 point team.
Or maybe I'm delusional.
legendinblue
NHL in Seattle
TheLeastOfTheBunch
Franchise Centre
We don't get much offence from our defence as it is, and now we traded the one guy who made our PP/top line click offensively. IMO the Leafs will only score at last year's pace when the team was in the hands of Horachek
PAP was given the opportunity to produce in a defense first system in Montreal, and Habs fans came out thinking PAP was pretty much done as a NHL player. Highly unrealistic to expect 20+ goals from him.
While Babcock had an injury riddled Wings team on his hands a few seasons ago, Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Franzen were still good enough to produce 0.8-1.0 PPG in their half seasons, and guys like Alfredsson, Nyquist and Tatar were good enough the rest of the way to help the Wings squeak into the playoffs. Even then, they only came up with 39 wins, 9 more than what the Leafs had last season..
Babcock isn't a miracle worker, this team is going to finish #29 or #30. Expect Bozak to be moved out, Lupul is bound to miss a good chunk of the season, and JVR-Kadri-whoever will have tough transitions to being our go-to scorers since they will be the main focuses of the opposition's defence
PAP was given the opportunity to produce in a defense first system in Montreal, and Habs fans came out thinking PAP was pretty much done as a NHL player. Highly unrealistic to expect 20+ goals from him.
While Babcock had an injury riddled Wings team on his hands a few seasons ago, Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Franzen were still good enough to produce 0.8-1.0 PPG in their half seasons, and guys like Alfredsson, Nyquist and Tatar were good enough the rest of the way to help the Wings squeak into the playoffs. Even then, they only came up with 39 wins, 9 more than what the Leafs had last season..
Babcock isn't a miracle worker, this team is going to finish #29 or #30. Expect Bozak to be moved out, Lupul is bound to miss a good chunk of the season, and JVR-Kadri-whoever will have tough transitions to being our go-to scorers since they will be the main focuses of the opposition's defence
Mess
Global Moderator
Coach Carlyle had the Leafs in a playoff spot at mid season before he was fired with essentially this same roster. Horachek tanked the Leafs to the bottom of the standings.
Babcock >>>>> Carlyle as a coach.
Anything Carlyle can do Babcock can do better.
Mess
Global Moderator
Kessel was a -34 last year which tied for the 2nd worst with his pal Bozie in the league, with JVR just 2 goals less and 4th worst.
-34 means that 34 more goals went into the Leafs net then the opposition net at ES (or SH goals against) while Flying Phil was on the ice. Its not subjective because every time a goal is scored the 5 skaters on each side is recorded giving them a +1 or -1 on the play at ES.
JVR (-32) -- Bozak (-34) -- Kessel (-34).
Now that black hole line defensively is no more so unless the Leafs are planing on acquiring Yakupov (-35) then anyone else on the line = improvement.
Babcock will get the players to buy in defensively without the puck and create lines that don't bleed goals against.
Expect improvement because you're only as strong and your weakest link and without Horachek and Kessel the team can't help but improve.
Last edited:
And contrast that with players like:
Winnik (+15) with 58 games played
Santorelli (+7) with 57 games played
Komorov (+0) with 62 games played
Holland (+0) with 62 games played
Kadri (-7) with 73 games played
Panik (-8) with 76 games played
Let's not forget that Clarkson played 58 games with the Leafs too. So these players had to deal with Clarkson as a line mate at some point whereas JVR, Bozak, and Kessel never had to deal with Clarkson.
Now, these statistics are a bit skewed because we really started tanking near the end there once Winnik and Santorelli were gone... but still. Komorov, Holland and Kadri looked like they did alright considering what happened.
Kadri would have a better plus minus if he could have played with Winnik and Santorelli for the rest of the season instead of Lindstrome or whoever his linemates were near the end there.
Robidas (+8) with 52 games played is impressive also.
I cannot believe that people are looking at this roster and thinking we are going to be any better than last year. Babcock might result in an improvement, but we are going to have way less goal scoring. Our center depth is trash, our wing depth is trash, and our defense will be barely okay.
The Marlies on the other hand, will be unreal.
The Marlies on the other hand, will be unreal.
I think they might be better than last year, but it's not because I think the roster is better or that Babcock will push them that far.
It's more about the idea that random results could easily turn out better than the disaster we've been experiencing, and because it's just our luck that the first year we stop doing everything in our power to win right now, we'll probably win more right now.
Daisy Jane
everything is gonna be okay!
- Jul 2, 2009
- 70,283
- 9,328
i know, right? Honestly though. I think a lot of people need to quell their expectations. We can address this if some Marlies make the big club, but as it stands, I would bet that only 1 person does (Percy), and I wouldn't hold my breath on that.
From everything I've heard from Dubas - they do not want to rush and upgrade the Marlies until they can be main contributors to the team. Babcock is of the "NHL is not a developmental league" mentality, so that will be further reinforced.
Babcock himself said "we need to get Hunts more picks, for this process." So the belief that even if the Leafs do spring out to a great start, that management would not take some of those players to trade for picks?
I am not saying this in a sense that I want us to be crash and burn horrible. but at the same time, I think there are a lot of people who think Babcock is going to turn gatorade into wine while he's at it.
We'll play harder, work harder, maybe win more games this year that we would have lost last year... but..
I'm pretty sure we'll be bottom 10 again next year. Might take a couple years to purge some of the unteachable players on the roster.
