How Many Points Will The Leafs Get Next Season?

[PhiladelphiaKessel]

Fewer points. Around 60

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

5 points over/under what we had last year. So 63-73 points next year.

 

[Smif]

I forgot to consider the teams in our division, I don't think any of them got much better and some got worse. Montreal, Ottawa did nothing, Boston is weaker, Buffalo should be a little better and Detroit made a few moves but I think they'll be similar to last year. Not sure what to think about the others.

 

[Bobs your uncle]

Somewhere in the 60-65 pt range is what I'd project. Babcock is a fine coach but not a miracle worker.
Expect the pain. Last in the east I'd guess.

 

[Razz]

I will never bet against Mike Babcock. The positive effect Babcock will have on this team cannot be overstated. Im excited to see how this team plays under him.

That said, I love the low expectations. This is exactly the right environment for a turnaround.

Regardless of where they end up, I'll be content.

 

[diceman934]

This would be a better question in early October!

A lot more changes are coming.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

around the same. maybe slightly worse.

This year will have no kessel, but also no horachek

 

[MapleLife*]

I'm really scared Babcock might add 10 points to our total. We need a lottery pick next year more than anything.

We should trade JVR to NJ just so they have someone who can actually score so that they can hopefully finish ahead of us

 

[ConnorTO]

the leafs will b the flames of last season

 

[Razz]

the leafs will b the flames of last season

I think so too. The team can play loose and tune out the noise (for a change). The coaching staff will keep them in line. If they lose, then they are playing as expected, if they win, they are heroes. This is the first time I can ever remember as a Leaf fan that a team had this kind of environment to work with.

I know lots of us want them to lose, personally, I just want to see our players improve. They don't need to lose to improve, they need to grow as a team from the ground up. I want to see improvements as a team regardless of the standings.

I want a Leafs team, not a bunch of players with Leaf jerseys acquired through trades and free agency.

 

[Menzinger]

Kessel was a -34 last year which tied for the 2nd worst with his pal Bozie in the league, with JVR just 2 goals less and 4th worst.

-34 means that 34 more goals went into the Leafs net then the opposition net at ES (or SH goals against) while Flying Phil was on the ice. Its not subjective because every time a goal is scored the 5 skaters on each side is recorded giving them a +1 or -1 on the play at ES.

JVR (-32) -- Bozak (-34) -- Kessel (-34).

Now that black hole line defensively is no more so unless the Leafs are planing on acquiring Yakupov (-35) then anyone else on the line = improvement.

Babcock will get the players to buy in defensively without the puck and create lines that don't bleed goals against.

Expect improvement because you're only as strong and your weakest link and without Horachek and Kessel the team can't help but improve.

One player screws up on the ice, and the other team scores all his linemates recive a negative +\- stat. A player steps on the ice and a second later a goal is scored, despite not being involved at all with the play has his +\- affected.

I don't think Kessel is a good player defensively but I don't think +\- is a great way to measure it.

I also would agree that Babcock will improve the team's play. However I think this seasons roster is a lot worse. We will have to just wait and see who ends up right about this.

 

[Mess]

Carlyle's record 40 games 21-16-3 record = 45 points in 40 games = +5 games over .500

Babcock is a much better coach.

However if he simply ties Carlyle @ +5 games over .500 mark on the full season the Leafs finish with 87 points.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I think so too. The team can play loose and tune out the noise (for a change). The coaching staff will keep them in line. If they lose, then they are playing as expected, if they win, they are heroes. This is the first time I can ever remember as a Leaf fan that a team had this kind of environment to work with.

I know lots of us want them to lose, personally, I just want to see our players improve. They don't need to lose to improve, they need to grow as a team from the ground up. I want to see improvements as a team regardless of the standings.

I want a Leafs team, not a bunch of players with Leaf jerseys acquired through trades and free agency.

Okay. so. let me ask you this question - for the Leafs to be the Flames:

#1. are you expecting players from the Marlies to come up? (ie: Nylander, Brown, whomever) and we're running on rookie power enthusiasm?

or - is our top six (that ran through Phil Kessel) of JVR/Bozak/Lupul, PA Parenteau/Winnik/Spaling, Holland, Panik and Carrick (maybe) supposed to score apprx. 200+ goals? (we scored 211 last year, the lowest playoff team scored 221. One was Montreal. (so they had Carey Price) and one was Pitsburgh.

Fact: management said they are not kicking up players unless they are ready. from everything listening to Dineen and Dubas - they feel that Nylander needs more time in the AHL. and I'm not sure if Brown is going to kick up any sooner). Maybe Levio will.


#2: the Leafs barely had any offense from their defense last year and as of today we don't have Franson's powerplay points. So this comes back to option #1: if the offense isn't coming from the forwards, are our defense capable of getting up to 200+ goals?

#3: they may be able to prevent goals against, but can they eliminate 30 goals? (after Montreal & New York the lowest goals against average was Washington at 203, and the highest was 230). . The Leafs allowed 262 goals.

Fact: Babcock will have a better system in place. which could eliminate the goals against, and we are counting on Bernier to be steady. (which. we are). as well as Reimer, insert, eyebrow raise.

#4: We are going to assume that the players signed for 1 year deals, especially if they are playing well ... won't be traded. Calgary's success was all on the backs of their players of the future (ie: firmly under contract). They traded away expiring contracts.

The Leafs are trying to eliminate a lot of the contracts on the roster.
---Bozak
---Lupul
---Polak (could be in play)
---Robidas (could be in play)
---Phaneuf (should be in play)
---Hunwick
---Parenteau

Babcock said it himself: we have to get Hunts more draft picks, for this process to work. meaning, the idea that management won't be trying to ship 1/2 the team off, especially if they are performing well.... doesn't make much sense to me.


Please note - I am not saying I am going to be alll "root, root, root, for home team's loss." here . If this team makes the playoffs. hurr-freaking-rah. I would be pumped. If they do it and they are 14th, depending on who is doing the heavy lifting of the team, I'll be happy.

But looking at the team constructed as it is - and using all of the factors as they are - I believe thinking "this Leafs squad is going to be like Calgary." is really shooting for the moon here. If - other aspects change with the roster (ie: we do have a lot of Marlies on the roster for example - and they are doing all the heavy lifting) then that would make me so incredibly happy.

Babcock will probably gain us more points, and we'll be tougher to play against structurally, but to just think that the leafs as they are with the potential line up, excluding Marlies, can some how:

Score apprx 221
Allow maximum 211
not maximize resources by trading a roster that almost 1/3rd is on a 1 year contract, and 3 people who are still being shipped out

can make up
30 points in the standings... (at least).
I believe in dreaming big, but again, that is a massive eyebrow raise.

I mean who are they going to beat realistically?
Montreal: no
Tampa: no
Rangers: no
Washington: no
Columbus: No

Florida still can't score, but Luongo.
Boston is nuts, but there's still Rask and Chara even though he's old
Philadelphia has no defense, but they've got the offense.
Detroit doesn't have Babcock, but they've got Dats + Zetterberg and Blashill's a disciple.
Islanders are crazy so who knows
Buffalo, I don't know. (i'd laugh though).
Ottawa who knows (but again: more firepower than we have right now).
Pittsburgh. (i'd laugh hard. I really would).

so... yeah.
it's not even having low expectations. Come Sept 15th, I'll be the most optimistic person about the situation, but at the same time those are the realities that we're facing.

 

[Pyrophorus]

I don't think people realize how bad we were on the road in 2015. We had a single win against Florida in which both goalies were hurt. I just don't see this happening again.

Its this.
The effect of the "supply teacher" is gone.

I don't know how much of the rest of the core will be gone.

 

[The Legend]

I'm a realist.

We now have one of the best coaches in the game and he up-coaches players, and we will have a veteran lineup next year with just a sprinkle of inexperienced youth mostly as injury replacements.

As of now this is the roster and .500 is minimum I would expect and with a few breaks even flirting with a WC spot.

JVR -- Bozak -- Parenteau
Lupul -- Kadri -- Panik
Komorov -- Spalding - Winnik
Frattin/Carrick-- Holland -- Arcobello

Hunwick --- Phaneuf
Gardner --- Rielly
Polak ------ Robidas
Marincin

Bernier
Reimer

*If Bozak and Lupul are still traded or Phaneuf the results will vary.

The roster will be worse talent-wise than last season's bunch. If Babcock is worth 17 more points than he is worth far, far more than $50M.

 

[Mess]

The roster will be worse talent-wise than last season's bunch. If Babcock is worth 17 more points than he is worth far, far more than $50M.

The problem is the players quit and Horachek is a lousy coach so that Leafs roster last year wasn't a 68 point team.

The team won 21 of their first 40 games under Carlyle and only 9 in 42 games under Horriblechek.

If you simply give it a modest 5 more wins in the 2nd half its a 78 point team, and Babcock upcoaching it to 85 points is very plausible.

So essentially were talking +7 points and not +17.

 

[Trapper]

The problem is the players quit and Horachek is a lousy coach so that Leafs roster last year wasn't a 68 point team.

The team won 21 of their first 40 games under Carlyle and only 9 in 42 games under Horriblechek.

If you simply give it a modest 5 more wins in the 2nd half its a 78 point team, and Babcock upcoaching it to 85 points is very plausible.

So essentially were talking +7 points and not +17.

Last year the Leafs scored 211 goals while giving up 262.
This is basically the same team minus Kessel.
Last year Kessel equaled 25 goals and 61 points. Replaced by Parenteau who scored 8 goals,22 points.
Arcobello 17 goals,31 points replaces Santorelli 12 goals, 33 points. No Franson and the defense remains the same.
Only Buffalo,Arizona and Edmonton gave up more goals than we did. How much can Babcock lower that with the same personnel?
In contrast, Carolina and NJ only gave up a respectable 226 and 216 GA and finished 5 and 6. They couldn't score coming in at around 180 GF.
Babcock has a greater chance of lowering the GA then making players score. And will the offense suffer even more as they learn to play 200 feet?

So this will be a huge factor in where we finish.

 

[Liferleafer]

70 to 80. I think that's being optimistic. This team is awful on paper. I kinda wouldn't be surprised if they overachieve, though, and blow us away by actually being in a playoff race.

I was thinking the same thing. All we really lost (of value) is Phil. If Babcock us the genius we hope he is, then I think the better defensive game offsets Phil's 30ish goals. If we can sign Santo....and play a hard hat and work boots kind of game, I think this team will surprise.

 

[Lethalsniper007]

Question here is would we make the playoffs with kessel in the lineup ?

 

[Bluelines]

Last year 68 points this year around 85 points.

So far its the same roster as last year minus only Kessel and with Babcock their should be noticeable improvement.

Babs will spend the better part of the first few months instilling his system. Wins will not be as important as having players buy into Babs. I think the Leafs will allow less goals against but will also score less. Kessels 30 goals per year are gone, JVR and Bozak also benefited from Phils under appreciated play making. Expect their production to drop by 10%-15%, Babs system is not fast an loose like the system Randy tried to implement last year, expect another 10% - 15% drop in production because of that system change.

I think in the end we will finish right around where we did last year. Maybe between 24th to 27th overall.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Leafs gave up 262 GA last year and bottom 5 overall and without Kessel and with Babcock I guessing that number to go down by about 25-30 GA.

I have ALWAYS said that if our GA can be cut down, we will be successful.

Hillier will have to work his magic on the PP.

 

[Mess]

Babs will spend the better part of the first few months instilling his system. Wins will not be as important as having players buy into Babs. I think the Leafs will allow less goals against but will also score less. Kessels 30 goals per year are gone, JVR and Bozak also benefited from Phils under appreciated play making. Expect their production to drop by 10%-15%, Babs system is not fast an loose like the system Randy tried to implement last year, expect another 10% - 15% drop in production because of that system change.

I think in the end we will finish right around where we did last year. Maybe between 24th to 27th overall.

I'm a firm believer in "Defense wins Championships" and last year Chicago scored only 229 goals for compared to Leafs 211 (-18 GF) and won the Stanley Cup through structure and defense.

I believe Babcock will instill a structure and system with the current player personnel that will see the goal against 4th worst (262 GA) improve significantly and that will result in the wins and points increasing from last year. Kessel was the weakest link defensive so his loss is addition by subtraction to make the Leafs a better 200 foot team.

Horachek won only 9 of his 42 games as coach that resulted in the 68 point finish last year. A Babcock coached team couldn't come close to that level of futility and ineptitude.

Coach Babcock's NHL coaching record = Totals 950 games 527 wins 285 losses 19 ties 119 OTL = .627 winning %. (regular season)

So I'm personally not expecting a below .500 record this year from a coach with a historical .627 (over almost 1000 games), unless this roster is still gutted for futures before this season starts.

 

[Pyrophorus]

I was thinking the same thing. All we really lost (of value) is Phil. If Babcock us the genius we hope he is, then I think the better defensive game offsets Phil's 30ish goals. If we can sign Santo....and play a hard hat and work boots kind of game, I think this team will surprise.

This is another thing.
If this team can work like Hartley's teams, it will be nothing but beneficial.

 

[Trapper]

Babs will spend the better part of the first few months instilling his system. Wins will not be as important as having players buy into Babs. I think the Leafs will allow less goals against but will also score less. Kessels 30 goals per year are gone, JVR and Bozak also benefited from Phils under appreciated play making. Expect their production to drop by 10%-15%, Babs system is not fast an loose like the system Randy tried to implement last year, expect another 10% - 15% drop in production because of that system change.

I think in the end we will finish right around where we did last year. Maybe between 24th to 27th overall.

It will take a few months to break some of bad habits. As well as learn to play with and for one another.

As I said above, GA/GF will play a huge part.

Babcock with what he had with Detroit.
GF - 235
GA - 221

Babcock with what he has on the Leafs.
GF - 211
GA - 262

Now without Kessel, you have to expect the GF to drop.
Probably under 200.
Now how much can he take off the GA?
10,20,30?
Even with hard work (but that's key), this should still be a bottom 5 team.

 

[Bobs your uncle]

I'm really scared Babcock might add 10 points to our total. We need a lottery pick next year more than anything.

We should trade JVR to NJ just so they have someone who can actually score so that they can hopefully finish ahead of us

I think you can sleep easy, the Leafs will still be in the top 5 of draft selections for the 2016 draft.