How many points will the Canucks finish the 2019-20 season with?

[tradervik]

Who'd have believed the Canucks would do well facing weaker opposition and not so well facing the league's better teams. Also, a big "caman" to all the people making points predictions in mid-December.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Just as the title suggests:

I had them at 87 points before I saw the top 6/bottom 6 direction. I think I'd probably take 3 points off if they're going to go this way the whole season.

Obviously things can change, but a snapshot today, before any actual regular season games, this is where I stand.

Thought this was interesting, I don't subscribe, so I can't read the article.




This is my first thread...whoop whoop.

that league wide twitter projection is not aging well at all.

 

[4Twenty]

that league wide twitter projection is not aging well at all.

It’s interesting to look at. They identified 6 of the current top 10, but there are some outliers for sure.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Sergei Fedorov.

Which gets em a wildcard and a 1st round date with Anna Kour......err I mean Vegas.

 

[Spectrefire]

I have them at 80-82, but I can see them lower before I can see them going higher. This isn't a good hockey team, and certainly not a playoff team.

lol

 

[Svencouver]

lol

idk, they could still finish the season with 48 points

 

[4Twenty]

If you’re intention is to dunk on Y2K I request you to please find another thread.

Also keep in mind that before the current streak they were on pace for 87 points.

 

[vanarchy]

If you’re intention is to dunk on Y2K I request you to please find another thread.

Also keep in mind that before the current streak they were on pace for 87 points.

That is my intention in every thread I enter.

 

[tradervik]

Dom Luszczyszyn's simulator has the Canucks with a 77% chance of making the playoffs. Quite a change from the start of the season where he had them under 25%.

 

[4Twenty]

Dom Luszczyszyn's simulator has the Canucks with a 77% chance of making the playoffs. Quite a change from the start of the season where he had them under 25%.

Lines up with the 80% @Melvin has tossed out. They’ve doubled their playoff odds over this 6 game streak.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Lines up with the 80% @Melvin has tossed out. They’ve doubled their playoff odds over this 6 game streak.

That's a bit dishonest. Here are the team's projected points totals at five-game intervals up to game 41.

Game 5: 98 points
Game 10: 107 points
Game 15: 114 points
Game: 20 94 points
Game 25: 92 points
Game 30: 87 points
Game 35: 84 points
Game 41: 96 points

Over the past 5 seasons, the bar to make the playoffs has been between 87 and 97 points and the commonly accepted line to make the playoffs this season is 96 points. We've spent 4 of 8 segments at or above that line and 2 more within 4 points of that mark. Outside of a terrible 10 game stretch, I think we've looked more like a playoff team than not.

Our top-six scorers currently have five players scoring at 1st line rates both in terms of P/GP and current point totals with Virtanen scoring goals at a first-line rate. Or defense has two players on pace for over 40 points and two more on pace for ~25 points. This team can score, especially on the powerplay, and is around league average at keeping goals out of our net, that's usually a good sign for a team.

Make no bones about it, this is still a bubble team and will need health from our best players or somebody else stepping up to maintain this pace but given how bad the pacific division looks I think we have the slight edge over enough teams to make the show. That said, what are you seeing that you think has this team pegged for regression over the back 41 compared to their first 41? I'm genuinely curious to see why you see the glass as half empty compared to those of us who see the glass as being just over half-full.

 

[4Twenty]

That's a bit dishonest. Here are the team's projected points totals at five-game intervals up to game 41.

Game 5: 98 points
Game 10: 107 points
Game 15: 114 points
Game: 20 94 points
Game 25: 92 points
Game 30: 87 points
Game 35: 84 points
Game 41: 96 points

Over the past 5 seasons, the bar to make the playoffs has been between 87 and 97 points and the commonly accepted line to make the playoffs this season is 96 points. We've spent 4 of 8 segments at or above that line and 2 more within 4 points of that mark. Outside of a terrible 10 game stretch, I think we've looked more like a playoff team than not.

Our top-six scorers currently have five players scoring at 1st line rates both in terms of P/GP and current point totals with Virtanen scoring goals at a first-line rate. Or defense has two players on pace for over 40 points and two more on pace for ~25 points. This team can score, especially on the powerplay, and is around league average at keeping goals out of our net, that's usually a good sign for a team.

Make no bones about it, this is still a bubble team and will need health from our best players or somebody else stepping up to maintain this pace but given how bad the pacific division looks I think we have the slight edge over enough teams to make the show. That said, what are you seeing that you think has this team pegged for regression over the back 41 compared to their first 41? I'm genuinely curious to see why you see the glass as half empty compared to those of us who see the glass as being just over half-full.

Guess you didn’t look at the graph.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Guess you didn’t look at the graph.

Even that graph had us at above 55% to make the playoffs for most of the season. That's no lock but it is promising and we've spent most of the season above the bottom four teams in the pacific and the bottom 3 teams in the central. That's all it takes to make the playoffs this season.

It's not ideal but all we have to do is suck slightly less than 7 other teams to make the dance. They all have issues at least as large as our team has, we have games in hand on most of them, and we're currently ahead of all of them. So which of the Oilers, Sharks, Ducks, Kings, Jets, Wild or Blackhawks (even the Predators if they keep having putrid goaltending) do you think will rise past us in the second half of the season?

 

[Spectrefire]

Dom Luszczyszyn's simulator has the Canucks with a 77% chance of making the playoffs. Quite a change from the start of the season where he had them under 25%.

I'm a big fan of how that Sharks line looks.

 

[4Twenty]

Even that graph had us at above 55% to make the playoffs for most of the season. That's no lock but it is promising and we've spent most of the season above the bottom four teams in the pacific and the bottom 3 teams in the central. That's all it takes to make the playoffs this season.

It's not ideal but all we have to do is suck slightly less than 7 other teams to make the dance. They all have issues at least as large as our team has, we have games in hand on most of them, and we're currently ahead of all of them. So which of the Oilers, Sharks, Ducks, Kings, Jets, Wild or Blackhawks (even the Predators if they keep having putrid goaltending) do you think will rise past us in the second half of the season?

Yes and you went on a multi paragraph diatribe about how I was unfair when all I did was point out what was on the graph.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Im really afraid to believe after the poor November

The pacific is weak but tied, we need to keep this current streak rolling for a little while because more losses are coming

 

[Tables of Stats]

Yes and you went on a multi paragraph diatribe about how I was unfair when all I did was point out what was on the graph.

It wasn't just to the quoted post though. You posted about the team's 87 point pace a post above that.

I might be wrong, but it feels like your take is that we're going to fall short of playoffs this season and next. I'm just trying to figure out where you're coming from because it seems like you're more likely than many on this site to go into detail about your take on this team.

 

[Spectrefire]

Im really afraid to believe after the poor November

The pacific is weak but tied, we need to keep this current streak rolling for a little while because more losses are coming

The Pacific is just awful this season. Vegas is the only team I'd consider a legitimate playoff lock, then you have 4 bubble teams after them in the Oilers, Flames, Canucks, and Coyotes, followed by the literal tire fire that is California.

Of the 4 bubble teams I'd rank them as:

Canucks
Flames
Coyotes
Oilers

 

[4Twenty]

It wasn't just to the quoted post though. You posted about the team's 87 point pace a post above that.

I might be wrong, but it feels like your take is that we're going to fall short of playoffs this season and next. I'm just trying to figure out where you're coming from because it seems like you're more likely than many on this site to go into detail about your take on this team.

They’re looking better than the 87 points I projected them for before the season. But we’re only half way through.

My entire purpose of this thread was to project the points. Playoffs depend too much on other teams outcomes and rules.

 

[Tables of Stats]

They’re looking better than the 87 points I projected them for before the season. But we’re only half way through.

My entire purpose of this thread was to project the points. Playoffs depend too much on other teams outcomes and rules.

100% fair.

I think I'm getting where you're coming from a lot more clearly now than I was before.

I missed making a prediction in this thread, but in my own stat tracking thread I predicted this:

The total for goals scored came out to 242 which would have placed us tied for 17th in that category instead of tied for 25th. It represents a 10.5% increase in goal scoring which nets 23 more goals. Assuming we get comparable defense compared to last season, and with Gudbranson gone I don't see how we could be that much worse, that probably means we win another half-dozen or so games.

Assuming we outright win an extra six games and convert another two OTLs into OTWs we'd have made the playoffs last season as the 3rd seed in the Pacific and played San Jose. We'd have been a bubble team, but I don't think anybody expects more than that from the current group without serious improvement from some younger players.

These numbers suggest that we should be a bubble team this coming season even with our usual level of injury 'luck' and even if none of our young players improve over last season. Unless you assume slumps or major injuries to our key young players and regression from our vets I think it's safe to assume we'll be a bubble team.

So far it's held fairly well. We're well on pace to outscore my predicted team total thanks to our best six forwards plus Edler and Hughes and our goals against are on pace to be literally two less than last season. Assuming a slightly more even pattern to our scoring - rather than going back and forth between blowing teams out and getting blown out - I think we could even see some regression in scoring and stay on our current points pace.

 

[y2kcanucks]

lol

Were you laughing 6 games ago?

 

[4Twenty]

25 games left. 96 point pace. Kudos to the 27% who had them at 92+.

If they go .500 over their final 25 they hit 92.

They would really have to tumble for my 84-87 point projection.

Been fairly lucky on the injury front. Still have concerns at 5 on 5. Should be a fun final 25.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Good job Canucks!! Now finish with 100 points!!

 

[Peen]

Didn't initially vote but had them pegged at 90 before the season.

 

[4Twenty]

15 left. 93 point pace.

Should be a fun stretch drive.