How Many Points Will Brandon Sutter Get In The 2015/2016 Season?

[aramang]

I think your numbers are a bit wrong for PP. He had 121:38 minutes of PP time and 5 PPP. Call it 2.5/60. 3.16/60 for his Pitt career.

It amounts to a difference of one less point so doesn't really matter. Your tally is likely close to what we are going to see. In fact if the west actually is tougher to play against and he is going to be given a primarily defensive role at ES the total may even drop.

Got my numbers here which has him at 119:00 TOI and 6 points for 3.03/60. But as you said, it's marginal difference, so who knows.

Honestly, if the over/under was at 29, I would take the under. For the reasons you said.

 

[tantalum]

Got my numbers here which has him at 119:00 TOI and 6 points for 3.03/60. But as you said, it's marginal difference, so who knows.

Honestly, if the over/under was at 29, I would take the under. For the reasons you said.

NHL.com has the ones I gave. They are the "official" ones I guess...

 

[Toxic0n]

Guessing 17-13 for 30 points

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

Kuzma has stated 25 goals as a reasonable expectation.

I can only assume he got this from his discussions with Benning.

So if Benning has this expectation and Sutter is his signing and trade I wonder how much effort will be made to ensure Sutter reaches those totals?

 

[PetterssonSimp]

Kuzma has stated 25 goals as a reasonable expectation.

I can only assume he got this from his discussions with Benning.

So if Benning has this expectation and Sutter is his signing and trade I wonder how much effort will be made to ensure Sutter reaches those totals?

I'd say probably around 120 mins of total icetime with the Twins should do it. You know because that's how they got him to produce with Malkin

 

[WTG]

I honestly don't see him getting 20+ goals.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Kuzma has stated 25 goals as a reasonable expectation.

I can only assume he got this from his discussions with Benning.

So if Benning has this expectation and Sutter is his signing and trade I wonder how much effort will be made to ensure Sutter reaches those totals?

This reminds me of when the Canucks signed Jan Bulis and everyone called him a "20 goal scorer! (tm)" because he scored 20 goals once. Exactly 20 goals. Exactly once. The expection was somehow that he'd get 25+ and when he didn't come close he was seen as some massive failure even though he was a decent player in his actual role.

I see something similar happening here, except worse because our brain-dead GM has already tacked on 5 more years at outrageous AAV for no particular reason.

Sutter will be a decent enough 3rd line center that will be maligned constantly for not playing physical and not being a good enough 2nd liner.

Having said that, I fully expect him to be spoon-fed ample PP opportunity and given as much IT as possible to justify the acquisition, as we saw with Vey last season. Our management is nothing if not utterly transparent of its motives.

 

[Hollywood Burrows]

I honestly don't see him getting 20+ goals.

if Willie spends all season force-feeding him second line minutes/PP time he might limp his way to 20 goals. But it won't be pretty, and it will hold Horvat back.

But yes, given that our team is going to be pretty bad this season I think it's unlikely that any player on our roster improves on his numbers from last season.

 

[PM]

Watch make Higgins - Sutter - Burrows be our 2nd PP unit for the entire year just like last year, with Horvat getting minuscule PP minutes once again. Just watch.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

What is the rush in doing this anyway? It's another baffling component of Benning's management "style." There is pretty much a 0% chance that Sutter has the kind of season where we couldn't sign him to this deal in March. There was just no reason to rush into this deal before he's even played a game.

We saw the same madness with Sbisa, given an absurd extension instead of just giving him a qualifying offer. Even if you like him as a player, it makes little sense and reeks of poor business acumen.

 

[a Fool]

What is the rush in doing this anyway? It's another baffling component of Benning's management "style." There is pretty much a 0% chance that Sutter has the kind of season where we couldn't sign him to this deal in March. There was just no reason to rush into this deal before he's even played a game.

We saw the same madness with Sbisa, given an absurd extension instead of just giving him a qualifying offer. Even if you like him as a player, it makes little sense and reeks of poor business acumen.

It's a celebration of excess. "I got my boy, I'm gonna pay him." Benning loves blowing his load on his locker room guys. The contracts have nothing to do with on-ice performance, and never will.

 

[absolute garbage]

So Sutter is unlikely to see a dramatic improvement in either TOI or quality of teammates. Based on his record, then, 18-20 points is a reasonable guess. I'll give him 20 5v5 points based on the chance that he gets some time with Vrbata and/or a productive Baertschi.

Good analysis. Couple of things:

What if he gets regular top 6 minutes, like it's being expected? Even if his total minutes stay same, when he plays with Vrbata/Burrows/Baertschi instead of say Hansen, he will most likely score more at ES. Not only because of the linemates/defensemen but also because the role, style and opposition will be different. If he gets to play more with Hamhuis-Weber than Sbisa-Bartkowski, that's going to factor in a lot.

How much more? Tough to say, but I could see him being in the 25-30 range in ES points if that happens.

His likely powerplay production is something of a mixed bag, too. Last year he got 119 PP minutes, and scored 3.03 points/60 in them. His three year average is 3.46 points/60. I expect he'll see more time here. I think a good guess is 140 minutes - roughly what Burrows got, and a hair above what Bonino and Vey got. However, I also think his production rate is likely to decline from his three year average. Last year he got 40% of his PP time with Malkin. He won't have that kind of firepower to play with here. I'll say he'll score 3 points/60 on the PP. In 140 minutes, that gives him 7 powerplay points.

Unless he gets spoonfed 1st unit minutes, his production will likely drop here. The Canucks 2nd PP unit is a disaster, it has only got worse and those guys get like 5 points per season. 7 would be generous, maybe possible if Horvat is given the chance and plays well there. 7 is still unlikely though.

If he keeps his SH production up, gets a top 6 role and possbily even 1st unit PP time (all somewhat realistic expectations), I think he could score a new career high or at least tie it. That's going to make Canucks as a whole worse though, and will result in lower goal totals team-wise.

 

[tantalum]

If Sutter is getting the goals and points being promised by the GM err media it is either because Sutter is indeed an outlier and late bloomer (I.e. Benning was right) OR because he is getting far too many minutes and Benning will still say "told you so" while getting ready to pick in the top 5.

 

[Bougieman]

I think he'll get injured and only get 27 points or so.

 

[aramang]

Good analysis. Couple of things:

What if he gets regular top 6 minutes, like it's being expected? Even if his total minutes stay same, when he plays with Vrbata/Burrows/Baertschi instead of say Hansen, he will most likely score more at ES. Not only because of the linemates/defensemen but also because the role, style and opposition will be different. If he gets to play more with Hamhuis-Weber than Sbisa-Bartkowski, that's going to factor in a lot.

How much more? Tough to say, but I could see him being in the 25-30 range in ES points if that happens.



Unless he gets spoonfed 1st unit minutes, his production will likely drop here. The Canucks 2nd PP unit is a disaster, it has only got worse and those guys get like 5 points per season. 7 would be generous, maybe possible if Horvat is given the chance and plays well there. 7 is still unlikely though.

If he keeps his SH production up, gets a top 6 role and possbily even 1st unit PP time (all somewhat realistic expectations), I think he could score a new career high or at least tie it. That's going to make Canucks as a whole worse though, and will result in lower goal totals team-wise.

This is certainly possible. It's tough to say because somewhat contradictory things are coming from the Canucks brass right now. On the one hand they're saying he's got a good chance to be the 2C, which would suggest he'll get decent offensive chances. But on the other hand they're saying he'll help shelter Horvat, which suggests he'll be playing tough minutes.

Based on Desjardin's style, I expect he'll get something very similar to Bonino's minutes and zone starts. As you said, though, there's definitely a chance he gets lots of minutes with Vrbata and Baertschi. That would be roughly the equivalent of the Canucks committing suicide though, lol.