How Many Points Will Brandon Sutter Get In The 2015/2016 Season?

[Lonny Bohonos]

85. The new Nazzy.

We shall call him Snazy...

 

[turkulad]

Negative 47 points, while somehow scoring enough to rob us of our good drafting position.

 

[thedean]

I said 20-25.

I think he takes a step back from his typical point totals. Yeah he'll get more opportunity here but he's also going to be drawing tougher matchups, people can say he was trapped behind Crosby and Malkin but I might say he was sheltered behind them. The west is a lot stiffer defensively, he's not in the cupcake conference anymore.

Having said that one thing that could throw off my prediction is being a right hander you have to think he's going to get a long look on the top PP unit the way WD likes to run things, that SHOULD inflate his point totals to some extent but you never know.

 

[tantalum]

I said 20-25.

I think he takes a step back from his typical point totals. Yeah he'll get more opportunity here but he's also going to be drawing tougher matchups, people can say he was trapped behind Crosby and Malkin but I might say he was sheltered behind them. The west is a lot stiffer defensively, he's not in the cupcake conference anymore.

Having said that one thing that could throw off my prediction is being a right hander you have to think he's going to get a long look on the top PP unit the way WD likes to run things, that SHOULD inflate his point totals to some extent but you never know.

I agree with your first point. My thinking as well. Tougher conference to play in. He's Bambi when it comes to strength in the corners and what not. He's going to be out muscled a lot I think.

Second paragraph...he had over 1:30 per game in PP time last year. I'm not sure how much more he's going to get unless they put him with the twins which would be crazy.

 

[VC]

I agree with your first point. My thinking as well. Tougher conference to play in. He's Bambi when it comes to strength in the corners and what not. He's going to be out muscled a lot I think.

Second paragraph...he had over 1:30 per game in PP time last year. I'm not sure how much more he's going to get unless they put him with the twins which would be crazy.

Maybe that extra 20 seconds that Bonino got? It is not much more at all and his production on the PP will depend on the rest of the unit. I think he will be used as a slot trigger man much like Vrbata is on the 1st unit. I wonder what kind affect Sutter's PP faceoffs will have on that unit, which on the powerplat was much better than anything the Canucks had.

 

[arsmaster*]

Maybe that extra 20 seconds that Bonino got? It is not much more at all and his production on the PP will depend on the rest of the unit. I think he will be used as a slot trigger man much like Vrbata is on the 1st unit. I wonder what kind affect Sutter's PP faceoffs will have on that unit, which on the powerplat was much better than anything the Canucks had.

You think they use him in Vey's spot, supporting the puck in the middle, opening the backdoor for Vrbata?

We had a top 10 PP last year without a 2nd unit, in terms of PP skillset, Sutter loses the comparison to Bonino, but it may have a better make up next season (Hopefully Baertschi and Horvat make it decently respectable).

Sutter's faceoffs I don't see really making a significant impact on the top unit. He's not really better than Hank at faceoffs, so it would come down to taking his strong side draws? Maybe he can become a dominant net front guy like Kesler in his prime, who knows. It's almost assured he'll get the chance. Hopefully it works out.

I still have him in the low 30's points wise.

 

[tantalum]

Maybe that extra 20 seconds that Bonino got? It is not much more at all and his production on the PP will depend on the rest of the unit. I think he will be used as a slot trigger man much like Vrbata is on the 1st unit. I wonder what kind affect Sutter's PP faceoffs will have on that unit, which on the powerplat was much better than anything the Canucks had.

20 seconds extra a game amounts to about an extra point based on his PPP/60 last year.

He's also not a terrifically fantastic faceoff guy. He's a pretty average player in almost every respect. The last 6 years his faceoff rate has been (starting from 6 season ago): 49.0, 44.3, 50.5, 50.2, 47.7, and 50.6. His highest and second lowest have come from the last two seasons. At ~1000 faceoffs a year he will win an extra 0.4 faceoffs per game when you compare the difference between his last years (or his faceoff percentage this past year versus what Bonino was at). Faceoffs don't have a huge effect on things over the long haul such as discussing 82 game predicitons (it doesn't mean you don't play the odds on a situation by situation basis).

 

[VC]

You think they use him in Vey's spot, supporting the puck in the middle, opening the backdoor for Vrbata?

We had a top 10 PP last year without a 2nd unit, in terms of PP skillset, Sutter loses the comparison to Bonino, but it may have a better make up next season (Hopefully Baertschi and Horvat make it decently respectable).

Sutter's faceoffs I don't see really making a significant impact on the top unit. He's not really better than Hank at faceoffs, so it would come down to taking his strong side draws? Maybe he can become a dominant net front guy like Kesler in his prime, who knows. It's almost assured he'll get the chance. Hopefully it works out.

I still have him in the low 30's points wise.

I don't see how they have a 4th forward on the 1st unit. The Edler and Weber made for a good duo in the late season resurgence with Weber almost matching Edler's production. Having two point men really opened things up, i do not see them straying from that.

I would think that Sutter would be with Horvat and Baertschi. The first unit is an already proven group, building a second unit would help the team win some games. Net front Kesler was good but I prefer the 50 assist Kesler that pretty much matched the first unit's production. Horvat protects the puck, Baertschi makes the plays and Sutter as a trigger. Still a far cry from the Kesler unit of old but a little more hope than what was rolled out last year.

I do agree that expectations are in the 30-35 point range, the hope is for more.

The closest anybody came to Sutter's faceoff% was Horavt at 50% with just 11 wins. Everybody else was sub 50%, winning 56% in the powerplay is a situational advantage compared to the rest of the game

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Voted 36-40
Optimistically.
Expect 28-32 points

 

[tantalum]

The closest anybody came to Sutter's faceoff% was Horavt at 50% with just 11 wins. Everybody else was sub 50%, winning 56% in the powerplay is a situational advantage compared to the rest of the game

56% sounds big.

Henrik took 230 PP faceoffs last year. He won 49.1 % of them.

If Sutter were to take 230 PP faceoffs this year and held his 56% he'd win.....





wait for it....



15 more PP faceoffs over 82 games than Henrik. It might end up with a goal or two extra over the course of the year but then again having a person like Sutter getting that much PP time may negate those couple of goals and then some!

And that ignores that the year prior Sutter was at 50% on PP faceoffs, and theyear before that he was 50% on PP faceoffs. The year before that about 33%.


If you want to win a faceoff the best bet on the canucks is still Horvat.

 

[VC]

56% sounds big.

Henrik took 230 PP faceoffs last year. He won 49.1 % of them.

If Sutter were to take 230 PP faceoffs this year and held his 56% he'd win.....





wait for it....



15 more PP faceoffs over 82 games than Henrik. It might end up with a goal or two extra over the course of the year but then again having a person like Sutter getting that much PP time may negate those couple of goals and then some!

And that ignores that the year prior Sutter was at 50% on PP faceoffs, and theyear before that he was 50% on PP faceoffs. The year before that about 33%.


If you want to win a faceoff the best bet on the canucks is still Horvat.

I was using PP faceoff as a small part of what he could bring to the second unit. Every little bit can help what has been a terrible unit. With Horvat and Sutter, starting with the puck more instead of chasing after it an wasting their short shift will in the least add pressure and like you said a couple of goals over the season. The second unit was a momentum killer as they constantly had to regroup. It starts with getting the puck and then hopefully with a better group, they can maintain possession.

 

[tantalum]

I was using PP faceoff as a small part of what he could bring to the second unit. Every little bit can help what has been a terrible unit. With Horvat and Sutter, starting with the puck more instead of chasing after it an wasting their short shift will in the least add pressure and like you said a couple of goals over the season. The second unit was a momentum killer as they constantly had to regroup. It starts with getting the puck and then hopefully with a better group, they can maintain possession.

Sure, but over the long haul it means little. And as I said if you want the second unit to start with possession more than actually use Horvat on it. He remains the best faceoff guy on the team. And if he continues to grow in that area then you might actually have a guy who can be a difference maker with his faceoff ability. Sutter isn't that guy however. IMO of course.

 

[VC]

Sure, but over the long haul it means little. And as I said if you want the second unit to start with possession more than actually use Horvat on it. He remains the best faceoff guy on the team. And if he continues to grow in that area then you might actually have a guy who can be a difference maker with his faceoff ability. Sutter isn't that guy however. IMO of course.

Long term with Horvat for sure but for now have Horvat and Sutter share duties like Henrik and Kesler did though with second unit expectations. If you have two 50% + centres on a unit, play them to their strengths and use them on their strong side. It is all about making a better unit.

 

[thedean]

I agree with your first point. My thinking as well. Tougher conference to play in. He's Bambi when it comes to strength in the corners and what not. He's going to be out muscled a lot I think.

Second paragraph...he had over 1:30 per game in PP time last year. I'm not sure how much more he's going to get unless they put him with the twins which would be crazy.

This is what I bet happens. WD couldn't get Vey off the PP because he couldn't come up with something that didn't revolve around having a right handed shot. I bet he gets a really long look on the top unit.

 

[tantalum]

This is what I bet happens. WD couldn't get Vey off the PP because he couldn't come up with something that didn't revolve around having a right handed shot. I bet he gets a really long look on the top unit.

Willie needs to listen to Henrik more on what needs to be done with the first unit. The reason it started clicking again was because the captain basically demanded Weber be on the unit.

But you may be correct, that is where they may play Sutter. Along with being the top guy on the PK and go to 5-on-5 shut down guy. He's going to get 20 minutes a night like Kesler did. Problem being that Sutter has only shown the ability to excel in one of those three situations, not all three. Sutter playing 20 minutes a night is playing on a team that is firmly in the lottery.

 

[arsmaster*]

I don't see how they have a 4th forward on the 1st unit. The Edler and Weber made for a good duo in the late season resurgence with Weber almost matching Edler's production. Having two point men really opened things up, i do not see them straying from that.

I would think that Sutter would be with Horvat and Baertschi. The first unit is an already proven group, building a second unit would help the team win some games. Net front Kesler was good but I prefer the 50 assist Kesler that pretty much matched the first unit's production. Horvat protects the puck, Baertschi makes the plays and Sutter as a trigger. Still a far cry from the Kesler unit of old but a little more hope than what was rolled out last year.

I do agree that expectations are in the 30-35 point range, the hope is for more.

The closest anybody came to Sutter's faceoff% was Horavt at 50% with just 11 wins. Everybody else was sub 50%, winning 56% in the powerplay is a situational advantage compared to the rest of the game

Sutter is a 50.6% faceoff guy, last year. Not 56, and Hank pretty much runs at 50%, last year was poor but the season prior he was at 52+.

I don't see the faceoffs coming into play too much, but it is nice they'll have a RH guy for that side other than Linden Vey.

 

[The Alien]

36-40, optimistic, but hedging my bet a bit. Would love if he could be a 20-20 guy, while providing shut-down C duties. Ecstatic if he does better than 40.

 

[tantalum]

Sutter is a 50.6% faceoff guy, last year. Not 56, and Hank pretty much runs at 50%, last year was poor but the season prior he was at 52+.

I don't see the faceoffs coming into play too much, but it is nice they'll have a RH guy for that side other than Linden Vey.

I think the poster was taking his PP FO numbers which were 56% (last year...not other years. Previous two years he was 50%). On the flip side his SH faceoffs were 46.8%. He's a good penalty killer but it isn't his faceoff percentage that helps him out.

 

[aramang]

I think there could be a lot of disappointed fans this season...

I tried to break my estimate down as empirically as possible, although of course changing contexts means you have to do some guesswork.

First, I think it's very unlikely that Sutter sees significantly more minutes here than in Pittsburgh. Last year he played ~12:40 5v5 minutes per game. In comparison, Henrik played ~13:30, and Vrbata got 12:45. So unless Sutter is going to play comparable minutes to Henrik (in which case God help us all) he won't get more 5v5 minutes then in Pittsburgh. He had 1017 total last year, and that would have put him third on the Canucks. I'll assume he matches that total this year.

In his last three years he's scored at 1.09 points/60 at 5v5. In 1017 minutes that would give him 18.5 even strength points. As we all know, he didn't have the best linemates in Pittsburgh. Again, though, I think the expected benefit of new linemates is being overrated. His two most frequent linemates last year were Spaling and Downie, who scored at 1.45/60 and 1.70/60 respectively. Those compare pretty well to Jannik Hansen (1.52/60 last year) and Chris Higgins (1.79/60 last year). I'd also note that Sutter got 138 minutes with Malkin last year, in which he was very unproductive.

So Sutter is unlikely to see a dramatic improvement in either TOI or quality of teammates. Based on his record, then, 18-20 points is a reasonable guess. I'll give him 20 5v5 points based on the chance that he gets some time with Vrbata and/or a productive Baertschi.

His likely powerplay production is something of a mixed bag, too. Last year he got 119 PP minutes, and scored 3.03 points/60 in them. His three year average is 3.46 points/60. I expect he'll see more time here. I think a good guess is 140 minutes - roughly what Burrows got, and a hair above what Bonino and Vey got. However, I also think his production rate is likely to decline from his three year average. Last year he got 40% of his PP time with Malkin. He won't have that kind of firepower to play with here. I'll say he'll score 3 points/60 on the PP. In 140 minutes, that gives him 7 powerplay points.

Finally, Sutter has propped up his offensive totals on the PK recently, scoring 7 shorthanded goals combined over the last two seasons. Before that he had scored 3 in his career. I'm skeptical of his ability to keep scoring at a high rate on the PK. I think a reasonable guess would be his career average. 10 SH goals in 495 games = 1 goal per 49.5 games. We'll call that 2 shorthanded goals,

So...

20 5v5 points
7 PP points
2 SH points

Equals 29 total points.

 

[tantalum]

His likely powerplay production is something of a mixed bag, too. Last year he got 119 PP minutes, and scored 3.03 points/60 in them. His three year average is 3.46 points/60. I expect he'll see more time here. I think a good guess is 140 minutes - roughly what Burrows got, and a hair above what Bonino and Vey got. However, I also think his production rate is likely to decline from his three year average. Last year he got 40% of his PP time with Malkin. He won't have that kind of firepower to play with here. I'll say he'll score 3 points/60 on the PP. In 140 minutes, that gives him 7 powerplay points.

Finally, Sutter has propped up his offensive totals on the PK recently, scoring 7 shorthanded goals combined over the last two seasons. Before that he had scored 3 in his career. I'm skeptical of his ability to keep scoring at a high rate on the PK. I think a reasonable guess would be his career average. 10 SH goals in 495 games = 1 goal per 49.5 games. We'll call that 2 shorthanded goals,

So...

20 5v5 points
7 PP points
2 SH points

Equals 29 total points.

I think your numbers are a bit wrong for PP. He had 121:38 minutes of PP time and 5 PPP. Call it 2.5/60. 3.16/60 for his Pitt career.

It amounts to a difference of one less point so doesn't really matter. Your tally is likely close to what we are going to see. In fact if the west actually is tougher to play against and he is going to be given a primarily defensive role at ES the total may even drop.

 

[Ho Borvat]

Prediction: From 1-3 who will put up the most points this year?
- Jannik Hansen
- Chris Higgins
- Brandon Sutter

I vote
1) Higgins
2) Sutter
3) Hansen

 

[VC]

I think the poster was taking his PP FO numbers which were 56% (last year...not other years. Previous two years he was 50%). On the flip side his SH faceoffs were 46.8%. He's a good penalty killer but it isn't his faceoff percentage that helps him out.

Yes, I was strictly talking about PP faceoffs, not overall.

I noticed his SH faceoffs too which kind of made me laugh at the backwards effectiveness Sutter has. Decent on PP faceoffs but not overall effective whereas he was weaker on PK faceoffs while being a decent in that role.

 

[arsmaster*]

Yes, I was strictly talking about PP faceoffs, not overall.

I noticed his SH faceoffs too which kind of made me laugh at the backwards effectiveness Sutter has. Decent on PP faceoffs but not overall effective whereas he was weaker on PK faceoffs while being a decent in that role.

Yeah, I don't really ever look at situational faceoffs, so my apologies there.

You have to wonder if the PP faceoffs are mainly on his strong side and the SH ones are on his off side....that would be an interesting look. but not really all that important in the grand scheme....good summer banter though.

 

[Barney Gumble]

I noticed his SH faceoffs too which kind of made me laugh at the backwards effectiveness Sutter has. Decent on PP faceoffs but not overall effective whereas he was weaker on PK faceoffs while being a decent in that role.

Wonder if it has anything to do with the opposition teams 'loading up" on the Pens 1st power play unit (in terms of defensive abilities).

How no idea as I don't follow that team that closely.

 

[VC]

Wonder if it has anything to do with the opposition teams 'loading up" on the Pens 1st power play unit (in terms of defensive abilities).

How no idea as I don't follow that team that closely.

I don't follow the Pens much either though it would be easy to assume that the top PKers would lineup against Crosby/Malkin like they do against most top PP units.