How many points could Matthews possibly score in a season?

[Halla]

I was responding to two posters - both who hate Matthews - who think that claiming a that a 20-year old will top out below where he is now is not an insult.

(and no, Marner did not get 52 pts in 47 games with Kadri)

my bad 49pts in 47 games. add in the playoffs and marner had 22g/36a/58pts in his last 54 games

thats a 33g/88pt pace pretty much from the time he got freed from carrying bozak and jvr at ES

 

[biotk]

Huh? it is worth more. Maybe not on the scoreboard but it's a lot tougher to score at even strength. It says something when the majority of stars make their living on the PP alone. A guy who scores at even strength holds more value than a guy who gets most of his points on the PP. Is that even debatable?

It is not debatable - except when a poster has an agenda.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Just way too many insecure leaf fans, the same ones bring up even strength all the time as if it's worth more to score 5vs5 than the pp

5v5 production is more valuable and sustainable long term. It's also more indicative of Matthews' actual ability, since he simply doesn't get close to the same powerplay minutes as other stars. So of course his raw powerplay production is gonna look bad by comparison.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Speaking of the powerplay, it's going to be interesting to see who plays on the top unit. Tavares, Marner, and Nylander all essentially like to play in the same spot (ie. right half-boards/right faceoff dot).

 

[Halla]

Roughly Laine -5 goals and Laine +8-13 assists = Laine +3-8 points.

huh?

Laine 80g in 155 games (0.516 per)
Matthews 74g in 144 games (0.514 per)

so Laine + 0.16G


Laine 54a in 155 games (0.348 per)
Matthews 58a in 144 games (0.403 per)

so Matthews +4.49A

Matthews is equal to Laine in scoring and Laine is closer in playmaking than you make it seem

 

[dukeofjive]

52 goals + 38 assist = 90 points

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I don't think he hits 100. Then again maybe Im just being pessimistic because I can't see any of Matthews, Marner, Eichel, Laine, or Barkov ever getting there.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Speaking of the powerplay, it's going to be interesting to see who plays on the top unit. Tavares, Marner, and Nylander all essentially like to play in the same spot (ie. right half-boards/right faceoff dot).

it's not even a sure thing that there will be a top unit. I hope it's not the case, but they will probably split the time in half again

 

[biotk]

my bad 49pts in 47 games. add in the playoffs and marner had 22g/36a/58pts in his last 54 games

thats a 33g/88pt pace pretty much from the time he got freed from carrying bozak and jvr at ES

It was 49 points in 48 games - not 47. And the 9 points he got in the first 4 of those 48 games were while playing with JVR and Bozak at ES.

Marner had a couple more ES points in the second half than in the first half. The real change was on the PP - which had the same people on it.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I can see him with a 55 goal 60 assist season. So 115points

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Huh? it is worth more. Maybe not on the scoreboard but it's a lot tougher to score at even strength. It says something when the majority of stars make their living on the PP alone. A guy who scores at even strength holds more value than a guy who gets most of his points on the PP. Is that even debatable?

Debatable ? Yes.

Having a player who's a real threat on the PP keeps the opponent honest and opens up opportunity 5 vs 5.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

19: 40g/69pts in 82 games
20: 34g/63pts in 62 games (44g/83pt pace)
Total: 74g/132pts in 144 games

I think 45g/85-90pts year in year out is reasonable. There are only a few guys that have been as dominant in the NHL at 19-20 (Sid,OV,Mcdavid,Stamkos,Malkin etc). 100pts is possible

Look at the scoring leaders now at the same stage of their career. Matthews is miles ahead

2: Giroux - 27pts in 44 games
3: Kucherov - 18pts in 52 games
5: Mackinnon - 101pts in 146 games
6: Hall - 95pts in 126 games
7. Kopitar - 61pts in 72 games
8: Kessel - 66pts in 152 games
9: Wheeler - was still years away

1 is mcdavid, 4 is malkin, 10 is crosby....

I remember a player getting 141 goals and 145 assists at 18, 19 and 20.

He then had 134 goals and 141 assists over the rest of his career (386 games).

 

[Tavares to Marner]

5v5 production is more valuable and sustainable long term. It's also more indicative of Matthews' actual ability, since he simply doesn't get close to the same powerplay minutes as other stars. So of course his raw powerplay production is gonna look bad by comparison.

it's not more valuable but if agree sustainable a point is a point

 

[winnipegger]

Is there evidence that teams that score at a high rate at even strength do better than teams that score at a high rate on the PP? Seems like goals are what matters and however you get them is fine? You will always get PP's in the NHL so how is it less sustainable to be good on the PP vs even strength. Just an honest question.

 

[Apotheosis]

90 year in year out, with a peak of 50-50-100.

 

[RageQuit77]

If healthy:

from 35+45=80 to 50+60=110. About. I predict very good season for him (and for Leafs too).

 

[therealkoho]

lol nice jokes. A prime Malkin barely hit 110. Mcdavid is the only player in today's NHL that can hit over 110.

If Matthews is scoring at that clip Tavares will be ignored entirely.

yeah I see your point, but for the Leafs what a great problem to have, on the flip side Sid and Geno haven't let extra coverage bother them

 

[JadedLeaf]

90 year in year out if healthy, peak of around 100 in his best seasons.

 

[MattySnipes]

Is there evidence that teams that score at a high rate at even strength do better than teams that score at a high rate on the PP? Seems like goals are what matters and however you get them is fine? You will always get PP's in the NHL so how is it less sustainable to be good on the PP vs even strength. Just an honest question.

You don't want to depend on the referees in the playoffs. If you keep your 5v5 game strong you're golden.

There are also great PK units that shut down great PPs. So sometimes it'll end up balancing out.

People just consider 5v5 to be fair and even competition, with neither team having a man advantage. Whereas on PP you're playing 5v4 or 5v3, etc.

NHL rink sizes appear smaller now with coaching tactics & systems in place that deploy players in perfect spots to shut down the opposition. The PP (special teams) is a big part of the game no doubt but the game has always been played 5v5. It's so hard to score at 5v5, and if you have players that can generate high danger chances and finish at will you're more likely to win more games than lose.

I really enjoy seeing players get creative and complete neat, set plays on the PP but personally I prefer players with a great 5v5 game. Sometimes I see teams and they're playing 5v5 against another team and I kid you not it looks like they're on a power-play it was so appealing to watch. 5 players working in unison.

 

[BonAppleTea]

Mathematically thousands. Probably closer to 75-85 though

Edit: Oh yeah, BEST season... I'd say like just below 100p but he could very well surpass my expectations

Exactly. Every single shot and pass he makes might just bounce the lucky way and lead to a goal. I would say... 750 points next season

 

[Laineux]

Don't see a way to hit even 100 points if Babcock keeps his minutes at check.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Is there evidence that teams that score at a high rate at even strength do better than teams that score at a high rate on the PP? Seems like goals are what matters and however you get them is fine? You will always get PP's in the NHL so how is it less sustainable to be good on the PP vs even strength. Just an honest question.

Look at the percentage of minutes played by strength.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

He will get 90 several times (barring injuries) . Could break 100 but will depend on Babcock's minute usage and PP time. Near the end of the year he seemed to find his PP groove.

 

[The Podium]

Roughly Laine -5 goals and Laine +8-13 assists = Laine +3-8 points.

Not taking anything away from Laine, but why is he considered such a better goal scorer than Matthews?

Sure he has a better shot, no question, but Matthews Arsenal is much more diverse.

Their career G/GP is 0.516 for Laine and 0.514 for Matthews.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Debatable ? Yes.

Having a player who's a real threat on the PP keeps the opponent honest and opens up opportunity 5 vs 5.

?

Your statistical proof?