How many goals will the Leafs score this season.

[Boutette]

Komarov yes. But the problem with Komarov is not that he is bad defensively, but that he is a complete offensive black hole.

Bozak's numbers are misleading. Over his career his GA/60 at 5v5 has been way above team average (over the last nine years the Leafs allow 2.40 GA/60 without Bozak on the ice and 2.89 with Bozak on the ice - which would place him dead last on that list). Last year the other lines were strong enough that Babcock could finally shelter Bozak to an extreme level and that is likely why his GA/60 numbers are good for the first time in career. But that doesn't mean that he was good defensively - he wasn't. Removing Bozak from the lineup takes pressure off the rest of the forward lines as they all had to play harder minutes to make up for the extreme sheltering of Bozak.

A while ago I posted the Leafs' forwards ability to get the puck out of their own zone with possession. JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Martin and Moore were all terrible at it. Among the worst players in the league. Tavares is among the very best. Joris and Ennis are also quite strong at that. I think that is where the real difference will be felt. The Leafs not getting stuck in their own zone for lengthy periods of time because of JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Moore and Martin, will take tremendous pressure off their D and goalies.

Like Komarov, Jooris and Ennis are also offensive black holes and have been ones for years. Not sure either of them should be anything other than 13th/14th forwards or Marlies unless they've really shown they've turned it around in the preseason.

 

[Dog]

My guess 270-290 but depends on trades and injuries. Lets look at our division right now with Tampa and Boston would expect making playoffs. Florida going to say makes the playoffs at one of wildcard spots. Ottawa expect them to be at the bottom(EK traded?). Montreal worse off depending on Price. Detroit expect worse off (Zetterberg out). Buffalo slightly better than last season. 1. Tampa 2. Toronto(Advantage Tavares+) 3. Boston 4. Florida 5. Buffalo 6. Detroit 7. Montreal 8. Ottawa

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

Hi I'm Doctor Strange, let me look into the future with my time stone and I can tell you the exact amount

 

[biotk]

Like Komarov, Jooris and Ennis are also offensive black holes and have been ones for years. Not sure either of them should be anything other than 13th/14th forwards or Marlies unless they've really shown they've turned it around in the preseason.

I don't know if either of them will be the Leafs lineup. And their contracts indicate that they are doubtful to be anymore than depth.

However, in the way I was defining Komarov as a black hole (which I gave no definition so that was my bad) neither Jooris or Ennis would qualify. Neither have been strong offensively for years, but Komarov was different. It is not just that Komarov had the worst 5v5 P1/60 in the league - about half of what Jooris or Ennis produced. Lots of players don't produce much offense. Komarov - who unlike Jooris and Ennis was often played in important situations when offense was needed - who played on the second PP unit - who started several 3-on-3 OTs - who played up the lineup for almost all of the year - simply sucked away his team's offensive potential every time he was on the ice. Every linemate that Komarov played with saw their GF/60 drop off a cliff (usually it fell in half or worse) when they were playing with Komarov compared to when not. That included with Matthews - who produced with every player he played with - except Komarov. That included Kadri. That included everyone. That was not the case with either Ennis or Jooris. They generally played with lower end linemates in minor roles, and their linemates produced about as well with them as without them.

 

[Brock Radunske]

All of them.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

280-290 max. We have lots of talent but the game is still only 60 minutes long and there's only one puck. And Babcock is still coaching.

I think the Caps managed 315 back in 2009-10 but that was with absurdly top-heavy scoring. Ovie had 50 goals and 109 points, Backstrom had 33 goals and 101 points, and Semin had 40 goals and 84 points. Even Mike Green had 76 points as a defensemen.

In our system we might have one player match what Semin did, maybe two, but we are absolutely NOT going to see multiple 100pt scorers and a stacked PP1 like the Caps had that year.

 

[Voodoo Child]

Marleau 24
Matthews 45
Nylander 23

Hyman 18
Tavares 33
Marner 26

Kapanen 11
Kadri 28
Johnsson 17

4th line 21

Forwards 246

Rielly 7
Gardiner 10
Hainsey 3
Dermott 4

Bottom pair and 7th D total (Carrick, Borgman, Rosen et al) 7

Defense total 31

Total 277

Which is right in line with the 275-290 estimates most have. I don't know if we'll be the highest scoring team but we should be top three.

I always like these threads.

It's 41 games into the season.

The Leafs are pacing for 304 goals, much above the 277 I predicted, and scoring is way up this year.

I'll revise my numbers, and include guys who have made spots.

Johnsson 21 (+4)
Matthews 42 (-3)
Nylander 15 (-8)

Hyman 11 (-7)
Tavares 49 (+16)
Marner 31 (+5)

Kapanen 26 (+15)
Kadri 21 (-7)
Marleau 21 (-3)

Matthews missed time but 42 is a conservative estimate for me which just shows how otherworldly he is. Willy missed the first quarter of the year and Hyman is injured. Johnsson and Kapanen stepping up and mitch has finish but mostly he's bloating the totals for Tavares - we have two lines that score at or near a goal per game.

Marleau can still chip in token offense and Kadri has felt it from his reduced role.

It was 4th line 21. Now it's 18 (-3) from the three mainstays there but kid call ups like Moore (1) also add. Tyler Ennis had 7 goals as well.

Brown 8
Gauthier 6
Lindholm 4

Brown needs to be better, but who is he better than thats ahead of him? Gauthier, Lindholm and Ennis (poor b******) looked good in the role, and we've got at least another guy in Marchment who will get games.

Forwards: 263 (+17)

Rielly 19 (+12)
Gardiner 7 (-3)
Hainsey 5 (+2)
Dermott 4 (-)

Ozighanov has 2 goals, Zaitsev has none but I think gets 2.

Aside from 2018-2019 NHL Norris Trophy winner Morgan Rielly (say it!), everyone is about where they should be. One of Rosen or Borgman will be called up at one point, maybe both, but Sandin and Liljegren shouldn't see NHL ice this year.

D: 39 (+8)

TOTAL: 302 (+25)