Ten players on the team had a negative goal differential last year.I am more excited about the team goal differential after the deadweight of bozak, jvr and komarov is off of the team
Ten players on the team had a negative goal differential last year.
None of them were Bozak, JvR, or Komarov.
Well its not like most of our players are over 30 and have set high marks for a career year. Fact is, we are young enough that 6 or 7 guys could easily have a career year. In the following list, name the players you dont think can break their "career" year. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen, Johnson, Hyman, Leivo, Zaitsev, Dermott, etc. As a matter of fact, I will say everyone of those players has their real career year. And most players hit their peak at 22.So pretty much everyone has a career year. Thats realistic....
Because those 3 were sheltered.Ten players on the team had a negative goal differential last year.
None of them were Bozak, JvR, or Komarov.
Komarov was 'sheltered'? LoL.Because those 3 were sheltered.
6 of 10 won't be on the team, 2 of 10 were rookies, the remaining 2 get the toughest competition.
Ten players on the team had a negative goal differential last year.
None of them were Bozak, JvR, or Komarov.
Who faced the tougher matchups? Who was sheltered and who wasn't?Fans always blame them for goals against but as you pointed out the players that were on the ice for the most goals against among Leafs were the ones still here.
Team Goals against by forwards ES + PP (excluding PK goals against).
Hyman (69 GA -19PK = 50 GA) -- Matthews (43 GA) -- Nylander (56 GA)
Marleau (66 GA) --- Kadri (53 GA) --- Komarov (52GA -17PK = 35GA)
JVR (48 GA) -- Bozak (43 GA) -- Marner (57 GA)
Of Leafs top 9 forwards the 4 worst players in terms of being on the ice for goals against were
1) Marleau
2) Marner
3) Nylander
4) Kadri
The 4 lowest GA
1) Komarov
2) Bozak
3) Matthews (in 62 games)
4) JVR
NHL.com - Stats
Who faced the tougher matchups? Who was sheltered and who wasn't?
So shutting down top scoring lines should show something different?Fans always blame them for goals against but as you pointed out the players that were on the ice for the most goals against among Leafs were the ones still here.
Team Goals against by forwards ES + PP (excluding PK goals against).
Hyman (69 GA -19PK = 50 GA) -- Matthews (43 GA) -- Nylander (56 GA)
Marleau (66 GA) --- Kadri (53 GA) --- Komarov (52GA -17PK = 35GA)
JVR (48 GA) -- Bozak (43 GA) -- Marner (57 GA)
Of Leafs top 9 forwards the 4 worst players in terms of being on the ice for goals against were
1) Marleau
2) Marner
3) Nylander
4) Kadri
The 4 lowest GA
1) Komarov
2) Bozak
3) Matthews (in 62 games)
4) JVR
NHL.com - Stats
That's all fine and dandy, but ..
What is going to change this year from last in that regard?
Are you expecting players like Marner and Nylander to face easier QofC this year or be sheltered more than last to reduce their high GA rates?
So instead of JVR and Bozak being sheltered with TOI/g & QofC, it will be players like Johnsson & Kapanen, but the top players that get scored against the most are not the ones changing this year and their QofC nor minutes are likely to decrease either. So same problem different year!!!
Sheltering works as expected for bottom 6 players to reduce team GA, but what if your biggest culprits all play in your top 6?
4th line won't score 30 goals not even the best 4 lines in hockey score 30
exaggerate much?
4th line won't score 30 goals not even the best 4 lines in hockey score 30
Players who are on the ice more are going to get scored against more. Especially if some players who are on the ice less are also predominantly deployed in the offensive zone.
Your method of assessing also punishes players who are out there with the goalie pulled and other situations.
Looking at it from GA/60 at 5v5, along with quality of competition (via TOI, in percentile) and percentage of DZ starts the Leafs forwards who played 50 or more games last year:
Matthews: 2.00 GA/60; QoC 96th percentile / 50% DZ starts
Bozak: 2.08 / 29th percentile / 42%D
Moore: 2.15 / 0 percentile / 62%D
Hyman: 2.19 / 92nd / 52%D
Komarov: 2.19 / 73rd / 64%D
Nylander: 2.27 / 79th / 52%D
Marner: 2.31 / 64th / 45%D
Kadri: 2.38 / 96th / 60%D
JVR: 2.4 / 32nd / 39%D
Marleau: 2.61 / 94th / 56%D
Brown: 2.66 / 45th / 48%D
Martin: 2.88 / o / 57%D
The 4th line will be sheltered as usual.
The real difference this year is that Babs won't need to shelter the Bozak line - both in terms of very low QoC and very high OZ start.
Kadri will likely continue to be used as a shutdown D, going up against the other team's top forwards.
Last year other teams almost always put their top D out against Matthews. The same thing if they had a shutdown forward line - it would go up against Matthews. This year they have both Matthews and Tavares to deal with.
With the loss of the sheltered Bozak line, and other teams having a more difficult matchup, it makes sense to me to assume that Kadri and the 4th line will be around the same as they were last year, and the Matthews and Tavares lines will fall somewhere on the continuum between what Matthews faced last year and what Bozak faced last year - meaning that both Tavares and Matthews should face a little lower QoC than they both faced last year, but still much harder than Bozak faced, and Matthews should have a higher percentage of OZ starts next year than last year, but not as high a percentage as Bozak had.
The first 2 were only because of deployment and Connor Brown's work on that line.Ten players on the team had a negative goal differential last year.
None of them were Bozak, JvR, or Komarov.
Looking at it from GA/60 at 5v5, along with quality of competition (via TOI, in percentile) and percentage of DZ starts the Leafs forwards who played 50 or more games last year:
Matthews: 2.00 GA/60; QoC 96th percentile / 50% DZ starts
Bozak: 2.08 / 29th percentile / 42%D
Moore: 2.15 / 0 percentile / 62%D
Hyman: 2.19 / 92nd / 52%D
Komarov: 2.19 / 73rd / 64%D
Nylander: 2.27 / 79th / 52%D
Marner: 2.31 / 64th / 45%D
Kadri: 2.38 / 96th / 60%D
JVR: 2.4 / 32nd / 39%D
Marleau: 2.61 / 94th / 56%D
Brown: 2.66 / 45th / 48%D
Martin: 2.88 / o / 57%D
You're reading the percentile wrong then.Doesn't your advanced stat metric still have Bozak and Komarov > Nylander, Marner & Marleau?
Doesn't your advanced stat metric still have Bozak and Komarov > Nylander, Marner & Marleau?
So actual # of goals against and GA/60 resulted in the same outcome.
If you remove players that get scored against less and replace them with players that might score more, does that make you better defensively via addition by subtraction as some believe?