How Good Is Tavares Right Now?

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Sidney the Kidney

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Again, I would say a Hart is an outside possibility, because it often is a team award as much as an individual (eg. No one is going to argue that Taylor Hall is as good as Crosby, Malkin or McDavid); if Toronto is a juggernaut, and Tavares puts up 85+ points and is seen as the leader of the team, then that might be enough. Crosby and Malkin both managed to snag Hart trophies even though they played with eachother (and are the best two centres if their generation), so did Kane when he played with Toews and Perry when he played with Getzlaf. Depth up front doesn’t necessarily doom MVP chances.

But in all those situations, they also won the Art Ross (or in Perry's case, the Rocket). If Tavares finishes 10th in scoring league-wide, on a deep Toronto team, there is zero chance he wins a Hart.
 

NoName

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He was a franchise player while on Isles because first he was drafted by them and no one in that franchise during his time there was even close to him. On the TML he is not their franchise centre anymore and is he going to be really better than Matthews after both careers are over assuming the latter does not leave? Matthews is already better at the same age and by skills and size he is also better (faster and bigger). Stop saying the Tavares is a franchise centre because that implies that he is still with Isles. He is simply a star player not elite and will be valuable to the TML. Can he win the Ross Trophy? Possibility but not if McDavid has a healthy and productive season because he is just on another level totally. If McDavid can do that this early while his team not making the playoff then it will be that much harder for anyone else to land that trophy if his team improves next year few seasons.

Would I pick Tavares in my hockey pool team next year? Absolutely I will, but not over few players (those ones that consistently has been on top over the last 3 years).
I explicitly said he would not win the Art Ross trophy. He simply doesn’t have the offense for it, his one shot was that weird year where it was between him and Benn and Benn won with just 87 points to Tavares’ 86. However at this point of their careers, Tavares is still probably a bit better than Matthews right now given his strong 2-way play and veteran experience (although a monster year from Matthews next season could make this sound silly), and if I were to pick who would be Toronto’s MVP my slight favorite would be Tavares. He brings the high-end prime age veteran experience that a championship caliber (in terms of raw skill on roster) team needs a lot of the time to put them over the top. If Toronto dominates this season and Tavares say scores 35 goals and around 85 points he could have a Hart winning season, because the Hart is a team award as much as anything (lokk at this year, McDavid was pretty clearly the best player in the NHL, but he didn’t win the Hart because the Oilers team around him was hot garbage. If Tavares is seen as the MVP of a juggernaut (which Toronto could be, not saying it will, just could) then he would have a shot at the Hart, even of he only scores 85 points. Again, he wouldn’t be among my favorites for the Hart if I were making pool pocks now, but I at least see it as an outside shot, and wouldn’t be suprised if he gets a couple votes.

Honestly, I have a sneaking suspicion that he wins the Selke; it seems to go to “best offensive centre who is at least somewhat defensively responsible” (ie. usually not a rookie or very young player), who doesn’t win a scoring title on a contending team who is seen as “the leader” of that team, and Tavares seems to fit that bill.
 

WetcoastOrca

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I explicitly said he would not win the Art Ross trophy. He simply doesn’t have the offense for it, his one shot was that weird year where it was between him and Benn and Benn won with just 87 points to Tavares’ 86. However at this point of their careers, Tavares is still probably a bit better than Matthews right now given his strong 2-way play and veteran experience (although a monster year from Matthews next season could make this sound silly), and if I were to pick who would be Toronto’s MVP my slight favorite would be Tavares. He brings the high-end prime age veteran experience that a championship caliber (in terms of raw skill on roster) team needs a lot of the time to put them over the top. If Toronto dominates this season and Tavares say scores 35 goals and around 85 points he could have a Hart winning season, because the Hart is a team award as much as anything (lokk at this year, McDavid was pretty clearly the best player in the NHL, but he didn’t win the Hart because the Oilers team around him was hot garbage. If Tavares is seen as the MVP of a juggernaut (which Toronto could be, not saying it will, just could) then he would have a shot at the Hart, even of he only scores 85 points. Again, he wouldn’t be among my favorites for the Hart if I were making pool pocks now, but I at least see it as an outside shot, and wouldn’t be suprised if he gets a couple votes.

Honestly, I have a sneaking suspicion that he wins the Selke; it seems to go to “best offensive centre who is at least somewhat defensively responsible” (ie. usually not a rookie or very young player), who doesn’t win a scoring title on a contending team who is seen as “the leader” of that team, and Tavares seems to fit that bill.
Well it would certainly be a first if a guy who finished tied for 26th in Selke voting with a nominal vote ended up winning the award. I think his odds of winning the Selke are about equal to his odds of winning the Norris. ie virtually nil.
And since when did the Selke get awarded to a forward who is ‘somewhat defensively responsible’?
Toews, Bergeron, Kesler and Datsuyk were all elite defensive players.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Well it would certainly be a first if a guy who finished tied for 26th in Selke voting with a nominal vote ended up winning the award. I think his odds of winning the Selke are about equal to his odds of winning the Norris. ie virtually nil.
And since when did the Selke get awarded to a forward who is ‘somewhat defensively responsible’?
Toews, Bergeron, Kesler and Datsuyk were all elite defensive players.

Kopitar
Bergeron
Kopitar
Bergeron
Bergeron
Toews
Bergeron
Kesler
Datsyuk
Datsyuk
Datsyuk

Doesn't exactly look like a list of forwards who can score and is "somewhat defensively responsible" to me.

This is why I think Tavares is being overhyped since he signed with the Leafs. Suddenly his defensive game is good enough to land himself on that list?
 
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NoName

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Kopitar
Bergeron
Kopitar
Bergeron
Bergeron
Toews
Bergeron
Kesler
Datsyuk
Datsyuk
Datsyuk

Doesn't exactly look like a list of forwards who can score and is "somewhat defensively responsible" to me.

This is why I think Tavares is being overhyped since he signed with the Leafs. Suddenly his defensive game is good enough to land himself on that list?
Look those are great two-way 1Cs. They are not the best of the best pure checking forwards in the NHL (those guys tend to get a lot less galmour and also are not usually on 1st lines). The Selke goes to a high scoring centre who (usually 70 points plus over a full 82 games) playing on a contender, who is seen as being a leader, and “team MVP”, rather than league MVP. Tavares could fit the bill this season, his defence is now well anove average (look at his metrics compared to that putrid NYI team), and being the veteran star on a projected contender fits the prototype. Not saying it necessarily will happen, but I think it could. At the very least Tavares is in a prime situation to get the award.

Sometimes it seems like since he joined the Leafs, many other fans on this site seem to have went from dramatically overrating Tavares’ capabities to dramatically underrating them... strange how that happened.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Look those are great two-way 1Cs. They are not the best of the best pure checking forwards in the NHL (those guys tend to get a lot less galmour and also are not usually on 1st lines). The Selke goes to a high scoring centre who (usually 70 points plus over a full 82 games) playing on a contender, who is seen as being a leader, and “team MVP”, rather than league MVP. Tavares could fit the bill this season, his defence is now well anove average (look at his metrics compared to that putrid NYI team), and being the veteran star on a projected contender fits the prototype. Not saying it necessarily will happen, but I think it could. At the very least Tavares is in a prime situation to get the award.

Sometimes it seems like since he joined the Leafs, many other fans on this site seem to have went from dramatically overrating Tavares’ capabities to dramatically underrating them... strange how that happened.

I think we're so far apart in opinions if you don't think those guys I listed are great defensive forwards, or that Tavares is in "a prime situation to get the award" over guys like that.

If you want to believe Tavares is an elite offensive player, have at it. I don't think he's as good as some on HF think he is, but he's good *enough* that I'm not going to quibble too much with it. However, if you think Tavares is even remotely good enough to win a Selke, then that's just ridiculous.
 
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WetcoastOrca

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Look those are great two-way 1Cs. They are not the best of the best pure checking forwards in the NHL (those guys tend to get a lot less galmour and also are not usually on 1st lines). The Selke goes to a high scoring centre who (usually 70 points plus over a full 82 games) playing on a contender, who is seen as being a leader, and “team MVP”, rather than league MVP. Tavares could fit the bill this season, his defence is now well anove average (look at his metrics compared to that putrid NYI team), and being the veteran star on a projected contender fits the prototype. Not saying it necessarily will happen, but I think it could. At the very least Tavares is in a prime situation to get the award.

Sometimes it seems like since he joined the Leafs, many other fans on this site seem to have went from dramatically overrating Tavares’ capabities to dramatically underrating them... strange how that happened.
Complete and utter nonsenses. Tavares was never mentioned as a Selke winner before or after he joined the Leafs.
The victim complex is becoming tiring.
 

authentic

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If anyone on the Leafs is going to win a Selke it's Matthews not Tavares. He still probably won't though, and I'd rather him focus more on scoring anyway since he could be even better offensively. Babcock will have them all playing strong two-way games though.
 

NoName

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Complete and utter nonsenses. Tavares was never mentioned as a Selke winner before or after he joined the Leafs.
The victim complex is becoming tiring.
Not really a victim complex. The Leafs are good, unlike a lot of Canadian teams right now, particularly the Canucks and time will tell if Tavares contends for a major trophy this year. I think he has a shot given his numbers in recent season (both offensive and defensive). Feel free to disagree, but comments like your very much come off like sour grapes.
I think we're so far apart in opinions if you don't think those guys I listed are great defensive forwards, or that Tavares is in "a prime situation to get the award" over guys like that.

If you want to believe Tavares is an elite offensive player, have at it. I don't think he's as good as some on HF think he is, but he's good *enough* that I'm not going to quibble too much with it. However, if you think Tavares is even remotely good enough to win a Selke, then that's just ridiculous.
We will see. I for one think Tavares will have a solid season and could contend for a major award and Selke would be my bet of them; looking at his defensive stats, they back up this theory (www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/tavares-stacks-top-centres-free-agency-suitors/), on a putrid defensive shambles that was the Islanders no less and we already know he has the offensive side to contend for a Selke (which indeed plays a role in voting). It isn't so ridiculous if you actually take the time to do a bit of research before forming an opinion. Ultimately there is only one award I really care about Tavares winning and it isn't an individual one, and I imagine he feels the same way.
 
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Sidney the Kidney

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Not really a victim complex. The Leafs are good, unlike a lot of Canadian teams right now, particularly the Canucks and time will tell if Tavares contends for a major trophy this year. I think he has a shot given his numbers in recent season (both offensive and defensive). Feel free to disagree, but comments like your very much come off like sour grapes.

We will see. I for one think Tavares will have a solid season and could contend for a major award and Selke would be my bet of them; looking at his defensive stats, they back up this theory (www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/tavares-stacks-top-centres-free-agency-suitors/), on a putrid defensive shambles that was the Islanders no less and we already know he has the offensive side to contend for a Selke (which indeed plays a role in voting). It isn't so ridiculous if you actually take the time to do a bit of research before forming an opinion. Ultimately there is only one award I really care about Tavares winning and it isn't an individual one, and I imagine he feels the same way.

What defensive stats? The author listed a bunch of things like offensive and defensive zone loose puck recoveries and successful stickchecks. He doesn't indicate the actual numbers, how other players compare, or where he got that data. And, more importantly, how that determines good defense.

From naturalstattrick, Looking at his various "shots/chances against" advanced stats, Tavares ranks the following (min 800 minutes):
CA/60 - 62.8 (245th)
FA/60 - 48.7 (256th)
SCA/60 - 32.7 (263rd)
HDCA/60 - 13.95 (262nd)

The guy bleeds shots and chances against. So I honestly don't even know where the author got his data from. Seems he puts a lot more emphasis on takeaways than he does things like Corsi, Fenwick, or scoring chance or high danger chance statistics to draw his conclusion about Tavares' defense.

In terms of "relative" numbers, among just centers:
RelCF% - 1.43 (49th)
RelCA/60 - 1.35 (72nd)
RelFF% - 0.50 (61st)
RelFA/60 - 3.25 (107th)
RelSCF% - 1.32 (56th)
RelSCA/60 - 2.64 (108th)
RelHDCF% - 0.29 (70th)
RelHDCA/60 - 1.62 (114th)

Again, there is nothing in his advanced stats that suggest he's good defensively last season.
 
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Tobias Kahun

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Look those are great two-way 1Cs. They are not the best of the best pure checking forwards in the NHL (those guys tend to get a lot less galmour and also are not usually on 1st lines). The Selke goes to a high scoring centre who (usually 70 points plus over a full 82 games) playing on a contender, who is seen as being a leader, and “team MVP”, rather than league MVP. Tavares could fit the bill this season, his defence is now well anove average (look at his metrics compared to that putrid NYI team), and being the veteran star on a projected contender fits the prototype. Not saying it necessarily will happen, but I think it could. At the very least Tavares is in a prime situation to get the award.

Sometimes it seems like since he joined the Leafs, many other fans on this site seem to have went from dramatically overrating Tavares’ capabities to dramatically underrating them... strange how that happened.
Do you even read what you write?

Bergeron is the BEST checking forward in the NHL, it's delusional to think he isnt.

As are players like Kopitar and Toews mentioned in that group, never heard of Tavares grouped with that group.
 

CDN24

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Not really a victim complex. The Leafs are good, unlike a lot of Canadian teams right now, particularly the Canucks and time will tell if Tavares contends for a major trophy this year. I think he has a shot given his numbers in recent season (both offensive and defensive). Feel free to disagree, but comments like your very much come off like sour grapes.

We will see. I for one think Tavares will have a solid season and could contend for a major award and Selke would be my bet of them; looking at his defensive stats, they back up this theory (www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/tavares-stacks-top-centres-free-agency-suitors/), on a putrid defensive shambles that was the Islanders no less and we already know he has the offensive side to contend for a Selke (which indeed plays a role in voting). It isn't so ridiculous if you actually take the time to do a bit of research before forming an opinion. Ultimately there is only one award I really care about Tavares winning and it isn't an individual one, and I imagine he feels the same way.

You're basing your Tavares for Selke on an article by Berkshire, the guy who ranked Shea Weber at the time of the Subban-Weber trade as the 47th best D-man in the NHL, Shattenkirk was 6th on his list. Weber was behind Petry.

I would not consider Berkshire an expert on anything other than misinterpretation of advanced stats. Defensive play is certainly not his forte
 
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X66

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What defensive stats? The author listed a bunch of things like offensive and defensive zone loose puck recoveries and successful stickchecks. He doesn't indicate the actual numbers, how other players compare, or where he got that data. And, more importantly, how that determines good defense.

From naturalstattrick, Looking at his various "shots/chances against" advanced stats, Tavares ranks the following (min 800 minutes):
CA/60 - 62.8 (245th)
FA/60 - 48.7 (256th)
SCA/60 - 32.7 (263rd)
HDCA/60 - 13.95 (262nd)

The guy bleeds shots and chances against. So I honestly don't even know where the author got his data from. Seems he puts a lot more emphasis on takeaways than he does things like Corsi, Fenwick, or scoring chance or high danger chance statistics to draw his conclusion about Tavares' defense.

In terms of "relative" numbers, among just centers:
RelCF% - 1.43 (49th)
RelCA/60 - 1.35 (72nd)
RelFF% - 0.50 (61st)
RelFA/60 - 3.25 (107th)
RelSCF% - 1.32 (56th)
RelSCA/60 - 2.64 (108th)
RelHDCF% - 0.29 (70th)
RelHDCA/60 - 1.62 (114th)

Again, there is nothing in his advanced stats that suggest he's good defensively last season.

These stats are highly impacted by a bad-team as well though.

Like I'm sure his numbers were better in this regard the year before, because the Islanders weren't as bad, this article even suggested he could be a Selke Candidate going into the 2017/2018 season: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/five-major-contenders-selke-trophy-season/

A lot of this falls on the Islanders coaching and players overall not being strong defensively(around Tavares).

Very few star defensive centers could have posted stellar defensive metric stats on last years Islanders team, it was horrible.
 
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Critical13

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10-12 C, 15-20 overall. 1st line C.

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CDN24

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I love the reactions in this thread. Fans of other teams can't stand that the team with the most hated fanbase just got the biggest free agent since Scott Niedermayer

I thought the biggest FA (both literally and figuratively) since Scott Niedermayer in 2005 was Chara in 2006.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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These stats are highly impacted by a bad-team as well though.

Like I'm sure his numbers were better in this regard the year before, because the Islanders weren't as bad, this article even suggested he could be a Selke Candidate going into the 2017/2018 season: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/five-major-contenders-selke-trophy-season/

A lot of this falls on the Islanders coaching and players overall not being strong defensively(around Tavares).

Very few star defensive centers could have posted stellar defensive metric stats on last years Islanders team, it was horrible.

That's another Berkshire article. It's already been established that guy has questionable takes on how he interprets advanced stats. It's also just one guy. If Tavares' defense is as good as you suggest, there should be multiple articles, by multiple different sources, suggesting it. This is like having a discussion about Phil Kessel and the only source being linked is articles by Steve Simmons.

Not to mention, if he's that good defensively, why isn't he getting a lot more top 10 Selke finishes? The Selke-caliber forwards are almost always in the top 10, mostly in the top 5, and the high end ones, get a lot of top 3 finishes. Tavares has a solitary 8th finish in his career. Every other year he either gets one random throwaway vote or he gets zero votes.

Sorry, but if Tavares was as good defensively as some Leaf fans seem to think, he'd get a lot more recognition in the Selke voting, and he's have lots more articles written about his defense, rather than just one guy writing all these articles or some random 5th place votes.
 

Notsince67

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Rightly or wrongly this will definitely hurt him. He basically has only finished top 10 in scoring twice in his career(although that ignores the strike season where he had an obscene amount of goals and 2014 where he most likely would have finished 2nd in scoring baring injury). All that being said 2016 + 2017 both where down years(70 points or less) no matter how you cut it
You kind of need someone to pass to if you want assists.
 

The Winter Soldier

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I put him somewhere from 10-15 right now. If he can show some life in his play that he didn't show in the 2nd half of last season. Then I may put him in the top 10. But other younger players are improving also, ranking players is not just looking at one player and saying categorically top 10. It is rare 28+ players have not peaked yet. So I think Tavares is what he is at this moment going fwd. A 11M$ cap hit, 15.9M next season. We will see if he is worth his salary. For this amount I would expect at least equally his 84 points last season. Now that I have read he is on a better team.
 

Notsince67

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Good ol' extremes.

Person puts Barkov over Matthews... "Must be hating and biased"

He shows a poll where a good number of people put him over (to specifically demonstrate its not an unreasonable view)... "Must be trying to declare Barkov HAS to be better"

And also compares the last one to someone who tried to use the poll to definitively declare him one of the best in the league.
You are selling a center who has never been a point a game as better than Matthews?:laugh:

You are selling a center that has less goals in 5 seasons than a center with 2 seasons (by a large margin):laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
 

Echo Roku

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You are selling a center who has never been a point a game as better than Matthews?:laugh:

You are selling a center that has less goals in 5 seasons than a center with 2 seasons (by a large margin):laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
*Looks at post history... Leafs fan*

No wonder your response makes no sense as a response and just tries to make you feel better about your own opinion
 
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Notsince67

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Let me if you want to put in one drop of sincere effort
Don't defend the indefensible. I can come up with a plethora of facts that prove Matthews is better than many centers. If Barkov is raised, there is no common ground to be found at all because it is ridiculous
 
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