Speculation: How far away from competing for a Cup are the Hawks exactly?

[LDF]

copy from another post .... i think this comment should be posted here as well.

players esp the young prospects will not come in and start playing like a season vet. this mean all positions including the goalie position. so process the reality of the learning scale when we start thinking of this team being competitive again, let alone being a contender

 

[Enyaw]

holy crap .......... easy does it Fiddy

 

[LordKOTL]

No need to be sorry. A bit of optimism is a good thing. I truly hope you are right.

My counter is simply that we need some serious infusion of players - specifically no less than a legit D1 and a legit D2 for anything meaningful beyond squeaking into the playoffs and getting rolled round one takes place.

Keith and Seabs are no longer 1st pairing capable. Next year both are likely to be diminished relative to now (as age is the prime factor in their decline - and next year, they are, of course, even older). Gus is offensively exciting and fun to watch but is a defensive liability relative to 1st pairing standards and is not a 1st pairing caliber guy now (or likely to be one next year). Murph is not now, nor will he be next year a 1st pairing caliber guy. To expect Jokiharu to be a legit 1st pairing caliber player at 20 next year --- not reasonable an expectation nor likely an event. No one else is 1st pairing capable for next year on this roster. the guys like Mitchell, beauden and Boquist are multiple years away from the conversation. Without either a legit D1 or D2 next year - or, based upon this roster - likely even one the year to follow --- I cannot hold your enthusiasm. But I like the enthusiasm. This roster must undergo many changes to become competitive in my view.

They should have been diminished last year--and in fact Seabs icetime has been diminished.

If we can add a solid top 4 LD to limit Keith's minutes, the trickle down effect will be huge for our defense. I don't think offense is an issue, but obviously would love to add Panarin or Dzingel, or Hughes/Kakko.

Honestly they could take 5 minutes off Keith's icetime and spread it around and have a similar effect..maybe not a better effect, but similar. An extra shoft or two to, say, Joker, shouldn't effect much. Ditto on Gus, Murph, etc. but the combined effect on Keith's icetime should work wonders for his game--as opposed to running him roughshod.

 

[Ace Rothstein]

Seriously.... What?

That's a short story.

 

[Ace Rothstein]

Yes. But think in terms of this. Ward has a 4 GAA. Delia has a 2.77, and Crawford had a 3.2...

Save percentage shows the same thing. Ward is something like .877... Crawford was .902, and Delia is .932.

He's awful.. You can't tell me that is all on the D when there is such a huge difference...Having an awful goalie in net makes the D's job that much harder.

Sounds like the team needs to ride Ward as much as possible through the end of the season.

 

[Putt Pirate]

No established/reliable/proven/good goalie

Unsettled D with unloveable aging vets for 1/3 of D roster.

No real 3rd line scoring when Cat isn’t there.

So.....depending on draft and development something like 5-7 years. Just my thought.

 

[mikee]

I believe they are 3 front line players and a couple of depth players away from competing for a Cup. Obviously a little less if looking at competing for playoffs.

Your guess is as good as mine as for how long it will take to bring in that much talent. There is some hope in the prospect pipeline, some hope with a lottery pick, and some hope with their upcoming cap room. But luck is going to play a big factor. Will the lottery pick hit? Will a couple prospects hit their ceiling? Will a good FA actually want to join the team and then actually play up to his contract? Will they be able to pull off an unexpected Patrick Sharp (or even Kris Versteeg) level trade to help?

 

[JaegerDice]

Both very far away, and not that far.

This roster is lightyears away. If you keep trying to add and win now with this core, you're done. Sign away the next 10 years to futility, check back in around 2029.

But the D in the pipeline, combined with 2-3 years of high draft picks, combined with smart free-agent acquisitions (or, god forbid RFA offer sheets).... by the time those 2-3 years worth of high-drafted talent enter, the D in the system will be mature enough to be difference makers at the NHL level, and the turnaround could be quick.

In a weird way, the Blackhawks are actually, perhaps accidentally, setting themselves up to avoid the pitfalls of the Oilers and the Leafs. They drafted their D first and then really sucked for a few more years to hpefully fill out their forwards. Not unlike when Kane and Toews came onto a roster that already had Seabrook and Keith. I'm not suggesting it's a work of genius so much as a 'cross your fingers and hope for happenstance', but the timeline could line up.

Granted, by this point, Toews and Kane would be contributing as 3rd liners.

 

[Pez68]

Both very far away, and not that far.

This roster is lightyears away. If you keep trying to add and win now with this core, you're done. Sign away the next 10 years to futility, check back in around 2029.

But the D in the pipeline, combined with 2-3 years of high draft picks, combined with smart free-agent acquisitions (or, god forbid RFA offer sheets).... by the time those 2-3 years worth of high-drafted talent enter, the D in the system will be mature enough to be difference makers at the NHL level, and the turnaround could be quick.

In a weird way, the Blackhawks are actually, perhaps accidentally, setting themselves up to avoid the pitfalls of the Oilers and the Leafs. They drafted their D first and then really sucked for a few more years to hpefully fill out their forwards. Not unlike when Kane and Toews came onto a roster that already had Seabrook and Keith. I'm not suggesting it's a work of genius so much as a 'cross your fingers and hope for happenstance', but the timeline could line up.

Granted, by this point, Toews and Kane would be contributing as 3rd liners.

The reality of the NHL, unfortunately. The draft is just too big a crapshoot.

 

[pvr]

holy crap .......... easy does it Fiddy

And that’s the mania part of manic depression.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

All comes down to our HC and GM

The reality is that if our HC doesn't improve and our GM continues to fail as he has majority of time over last 4 years the franchise wont be contending soon

 

[RememberTheRoar]

All comes down to our HC and GM

The reality is that if our HC doesn't improve and our GM continues to fail as he has majority of time over last 4 years the franchise wont be contending soon

Wouldn’t failing be selling off Jokiharju, the pick that brought Boqvist, and DeBrincat for established veteran rentals in order to make one more failed run at a Cup?

 

[Larmer83]

This is clear to anykindergartner,let alone e any ratio AL Hawks plan..

Yea, but is it clear to Mike Gartner?

On a related note, I live in the Denver area but I'm currently in Chicago on business. When I get back to Lakewood, CO I don't need to visit a dispensary, just need to read this Fiddy post and I'm good.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Even the Hawks social media vis csn is in on tank

 

[Toews2Bickell]

 

[Styles]

View attachment 176693

 

[bwana63]

Depends on how much squinting and/or whiskey you've had. Seriously though, they could be legit contenders in 20-21, provided things fall into place.

 

[RayP]

View attachment 176693

I can’t imagine how much more awful listening to Konroyd on that topic would be than having to listen to him announce a game.

 

[Illinihockey]

Was listening to the Committed Indian podcast today and they brought up the question of is Toews a #1 center in today's NHL. They must be reading my posts.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Was listening to the Committed Indian podcast today and they brought up the question of is Toews a #1 center in today's NHL. They must be reading my posts.

We do so many people’s jobs for them, ridiculous.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Was listening to the Committed Indian podcast today and they brought up the question of is Toews a #1 center in today's NHL. They must be reading my posts.

What conclusion did they come to, and what was their arguments to back up the conclusion?

 

[Illinihockey]

What conclusion did they come to, and what was their arguments to back up the conclusion?

Basically if you look around the league at all of the contenders you need a #1 center than gets you 85-90 points. That a huge part of Toews value has always been his possession numbers and even though he's on a bad team, they aren't there. That ultimately for the Hawks to be good again, they need to find another #1 center and have to do it cheaply since their #2 center is making $10 mil a year. Basically what I was saying.

 

[Hawkaholic]

LOL @ Toews being a #2C.

Most #1Cs have really good players playing next to them. Most contenders have really good Dmen, and pretty good depth.

The WCF last year didn't have a C that had 85-90pts

 

[ChiHawks10]

This again.

Didn't think anyone still paid any attention to TCI. They went hard on the "Patrick Kane is a rapist" bullshit like Julie DiCaro did. Dumb f***s. Could care less about them or anything they have to say.

Pretty sure they had some cringe-worthy commentary regarding Panarin, also. Something about the KHL being trash, and Panarin was going to be in the AHL his rookie year because he wasn't that good.

TCI = Trash.

 

[ClydeLee]

LOL @ Toews being a #2C.

Most #1Cs have really good players playing next to them. Most contenders have really good Dmen, and pretty good depth.

The WCF last year didn't have a C that had 85-90pts

But you need it to be a contender like the great Avs and Oilers