HOF Monitor Points through Four Seasons
- Thread starter Hockey Outsider
- Start date
Ohashi_Jouzu*
Registered User
So basically, winning the Cup gets you a few points, but post-season production earns you nothing?
pnep
Registered User
pnep
Registered User
Ohashi_Jouzu*
Registered User
Okay, I should have said it earn you little. Since ranking in the top of regular season scoring earns you bonus points, whereas leading in adjusted PO points seemingly earns you nothing. I understand the inherent difficulty, but hopefully you see what I'm talking about.
Top "this and that" regular season earns you bonus points left and right, yet being a playoff monster earns you bonus almost nothing unless your team wins the Cup.
Bear of Bad News
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- Sep 27, 2005
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It should probably be pointed out that this system does not attempt to place value judgments on who deserves to be considered great. Instead, it makes predictions (based upon past voter predilections) as to who will be eventually inducted into the Hall.
In other words, if there's a flaw in the system, it's not pnep's fault. It's the fault of voters who apparently don't consider postseason point totals at the level which you do.
pnep
Registered User
yep
because no PO All star teams, Best PO Forward/Defenceman awards
or awards for PO Points/Goal Leader
pnep
Registered User
Ohashi_Jouzu*
Registered User
Oi oi! I would never throw any blame pnep's way! That guy provides me with a tonne of info that I could never get any other way. Just sayin'... there are lots of guys who have made it into the Hall despite short careers and moderate regular season production seemingly due to post season production and success. Look at the players with the lowest games played that are inducted (as players, not builders) and tell me that their post seasons and # of cup rings had little/nothing to do with it.
edit: I know where the "inspiration" came from when H_O started the thread. I don't know when the HOF monitor point system was discussed, but this is the first time I've had a chance to weigh in on it.
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pnep
Registered User
Please
provide examples
btw
Glenn Anderson (214 PO PTS) -- retired 1996 -- included 2008
Claude Provost (9 Cups) -- retired 1970 - not inducted
Guy Talbot Jean (7 Cups) -- retired 1971 - not inducted
Bobby Smith, Brian Propp, Esa Tikkanen
Claude Lemieux?
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Ohashi_Jouzu*
Registered User
Short careers with lots of Cups in the "modern" era (post-1960):
Laperriere (282 points in 692 games, 1 Norris, 2 1st and 2nd team all-stars... but 5 Cups)
Ted Kennedy (560 in 696, 2nd team all-star a few times, 1 Hart... but 5 Cups)
Are two that come to mind as short careers with moderate success (compared to today's standards) that became no-brainers due to the number of Cup rings. There are more to be found in different eras as well, but it's too late here for me to get into that. I might endeavour tomorrow to find more people who were completely average regular season whose post seasons might deserve a little more attention as well.
Canadiens1958
Registered User
Well.............
1960 is somewhat arbitrary without a historic basis - 1967 as an example when the league expanded.
Ted Kennedy is pre 1960. Taking away from your point.
1960 is somewhat arbitrary without a historic basis - 1967 as an example when the league expanded.
Ted Kennedy is pre 1960. Taking away from your point.
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
Kennedy had several retro Conn Smythes. Do HOF moniter points take retro awards into account?
Cam Neely is one guy I'm interested in seeing the HOF moniter points breakdown of. Most arguments for him getting into the hall include his ridiculous goals per playoff game, which isn't taken into account by the HOF moniter points. Of course, he could just be a bad/unusual induction.
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
pnep
Registered User
Dennis Bonvie
Registered User
I don't know how you guys are figuring out your statistics for who accomplished the most in their first four years, I didn't take the time to read everything, I have to go to work, but it is my opinion that winning the Conn Smyth trophy in that time should be a greater accomplishment than any other trophy. Gotta give props to Malkin and Orr and anyone else who did it.
pnep
Registered User
Retired Conn Smyth trophy winners not in HHOF:
Roger Crozier
Ron Hextall
Reggie Leach
Mike Vernon
Butch Goring
Bill Ranford
Retired Hart trophy winners not in HHOF:
Tom Anderson
Al Rollins
In some ways I do agree that there are flaws to your system pnep. Doug Gilmour is a great example. In 1986, he had a monster playoff run but, I guarantee you wont give him points for that. Same thing for his 1993 and 1994 playoff runs, cuz he didnt win the cup or conn smythe in either series. I'm surprised Naslund has more HHOF monitor points than dougie.
Bear of Bad News
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???
If you read the thread listed referenced just a few posts above, you'll note that playoff points are counted in the system. So Gilmour would certainly get credit for his runs in 1986, 1993 and 1994.
Then why does he have fewer hhof points than naslund. Both cracked the top 10 3 times. Gilmour has a stanley cup, a selke trophy, a hart runner up and vastly superior playoff resume, added with more regular season longevity. I dont think Naslund should get more points based on his 'left wing' all star selections.
Bear of Bad News
Your Third or Fourth Favorite HFBoards Admin
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I haven't run the numbers, so pnep will have to weigh in. If the thread he linked to is correct, however, then Gilmour's getting credit for his playoff points.
Hockey Outsider
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- Jan 16, 2005
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Pnep, thanks for the data.
General question about the HOF Points system -- when you assign points to different awards/stats, how do you determine the values (ie 150 points for a Hart, 100 for Conn Smythe, etc)? Is there a calculation (some type of regression analysis maybe?)
Since this is a predictive system, have you tested the results (ie perhaps 95% of eligible players with a score above XX are actually in the Hall, then maybe there's a borderline category with 50% of players between YY and ZZ points in the Hall?)
General question about the HOF Points system -- when you assign points to different awards/stats, how do you determine the values (ie 150 points for a Hart, 100 for Conn Smythe, etc)? Is there a calculation (some type of regression analysis maybe?)
Since this is a predictive system, have you tested the results (ie perhaps 95% of eligible players with a score above XX are actually in the Hall, then maybe there's a borderline category with 50% of players between YY and ZZ points in the Hall?)
Ohashi_Jouzu*
Registered User
Good point. I'd like to know how well this formula correlates once you get outside the no-brainer top players on the list.
Hockey Outsider
Registered User
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The reason I'm asking is because if Pnep's system is based on educated guesses/eyeballing the numbers (there's nothing wrong with that, of course), I'd like to try to develop a purely statistical regression model. I think I can do it (eventually...), but I don't want to waste my time if Pnep has already beat me to it.
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