HHOF 2019

[TheDevilMadeMe]

that would be a sad day, especially if elias is still on the outside.

you probably know this better than anyone but re: post above about elias' versatility, he could lead your offense on a larry robinson team or on a pat burns team. markus naslund showed that he could only be elite if you tailored your team to play a run and gun style around him while giving him a center to babysit him on his own side of the puck. and of course we all know how successful that strategy is...

Oh Elias is a lock to get in at some point. The man was a coach's dream for reasons you say. The HHOF standards aren't as high as some people think.

 

[seventieslord]

keith tkachuk is iirc the only player in NHL history to choke away two 3-1 series leads in his career.

Are you sure? This happens so often that I find it hard to believe Tkachuk is the only one to ever be a victim of it twice. What about someone on the 90s Capitals?

 

[GlitchMarner]

Are you sure? This happens so often that I find it hard to believe Tkachuk is the only one to ever be a victim of it twice. What about someone on the 90s Capitals?

Hell, what about the recent Capitals? They were leading MTL 3-1 in 2010 and lost and they blew a 3-1 series lead to the Rangers in 2015.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah, if vadim meant he was the only guy to do it on two different teams, he might be correct, but even that I'm not sure of:

List of teams to overcome 3–1 series deficits - Wikipedia

(to be honest, I thought it was a LOT more common than this)

 

[seventieslord]

So I can tell you that by 1987, no one had turned this trick. No one who was on the 1975 Penguins was on the 1987 Capitals (from among the 24 players active in both seasons). By then, Larouche was the only active 1975 Penguin, and he was not on the 1987 Capitals/Leafs, or on the 1988 Flyers.

Then we can start at the 1987 Caps and Leafs. Let's see if anyone turns up.

- On the 1987 Capitals, we have Michal Pivonka and Kelly Miller, who were also there for the 1992 and 1995 collapses,

....ok, I figured out an easier way to do it. I'll report back sooner. There are dozens of players who did this, including with multiple teams, and some three-timers.

 

[seventieslord]

Alright, the complete list of players to lose two series that they were up 3-1 in.

I only included players who had 6 or 7 games. if they had 3-5 games, they had to have played in the losses.

3 Times, 3 Different Teams:

Keith Jones, Washington/Colorado/Philadelphia (1995, 1998, 2000)

3 Times, 2 Different Teams:

Keith Tkachuk, Winnipeg/Phoenix/St. Louis (1992, 1999, 2003)
Brooks Orpik, Pittsburgh/Washington (2011, 2014, 2015)
Matt Niskanen, Pittsburgh/Washington (2011, 2014, 2015)

3 Times, 3 Stints on 2 Teams:

Rick Tocchet, Philadelphia/Phoenix/Philadelphia (1988, 1999, 2000)

3 Times, Same Team:

Kelly Miller, Washington (1987, 1992, 1995)
Michal Pivonka, Washington (1987, 1992, 1995)
Teppo Numminen, Winnipeg/Phoenix (1990, 1992, 1999)

2 Times, Different Teams:

Dave Brown, Philadelphia/Edmonton (1988, 1989)
Doug Crossman, Philadelphia/Detroit (1988, 1991)
Jimmy Carson, Edmonton/Detroit (1989, 1991)
Al Iafrate, Toronto/Washington (1987, 1992)
Derrick Smith, Philadelphia/Minnesota (1988, 1992)
Gaetan Duchesne, Washington/Minnesota (1987, 1992)
Paul MacDermid, Winnipeg/Washington (1990, 1992)
Jim Johnson, Minnesota/Washington (1992, 1995)
Mike Eagles, Winnipeg/Washington (1992, 1995)
Mike Sullivan, Calgary/Phoenix (1994, 1999)
Robert Reichel, Calgary/Phoenix (1994, 1999)
Craig Berube, Washington/Philadelphia (1995, 2000)
Keith Primeau, Detroit/Philadelphia (1991, 2000)
Al MacInnis, Calgary/St.Louis (1994, 2003)
Trent Klatt, Minnesota/Vancouver (1992, 2003)
Dallas Drake, Phoenix/St.Louis (1999, 2003)
Scott Mellanby, Philadelphia/St. Louis (1988, 2003)
Sergei Gonchar, Washington/Boston (1995, 2004)
Dan McGillis, Philadelphia/Boston (2000, 2004)
Derek Morris, Colorado/NY Rangers (2003, 2009)
Markus Naslund, Vancouver/NY Rangers (2003, 2009)
Brendan Morrison, Vancouver/Washington (2003, 2010)
Mike Knuble, Boston/Washington (2004, 2010)
Todd Bertuzzi, Vancouver/Detroit (2003, 2013)
Joe Thornton, Boston/San Jose (2004, 2014)

2 Times, Same Team:


Fredrik Olausson, Winnipeg (1990, 1992)
Pat Elynuik, Winnipeg (1990, 1992)
Shawn Cronin, Winnipeg (1990, 1992)
Thomas Steen, Winnipeg (1990, 1992)
Kevin Hatcher, Washington (1987, 1992)
Rod Langway, Washington (1987, 1992)
Mike Ridley, Washington (1987, 1992)
Calle Johansson, Washington (1992, 1995)
Dale Hunter, Washington (1992, 1995)
Dmitri Khristich, Washington (1992, 1995)
Sylvain Cote, Washington (1992, 1995)
Peter Bondra, Washington (1992, 1995)
Adam Foote, Colorado (1998, 2003)
Joe Sakic, Colorado (1998, 2003)
Peter Forsberg, Colorado (1998, 2003)
Patrick Roy, Colorado (1998, 2003)
Chris Kunitz, Pittsburgh (2011, 2014)
Craig Adams, Pittsburgh (2011, 2014)
James Neal, Pittsburgh (2011, 2014)
Kris Letang, Pittsburgh (2011, 2014)
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh (2011, 2014)
Paul Martin, Pittsburgh (2011, 2014)
Alexander Ovechkin, Washington (2010, 2015)
Brooks Laich, Washington (2010, 2015)
Eric Fehr, Washington (2010, 2015)
Jason Chimera, Washington (2010, 2015)
John Carlson, Washington (2010, 2015)
Mike Green, Washington (2010, 2015)
Nicklas Backstrom, Washington (2010, 2015)

Almost every one of these post-1975 teams have a connection to another one. The exceptions are:

- The 1998 Avalanche. When they blew the series against the Oilers, no one on the team had ever done that, and no one would ever do it again for another team, though four of them would be around five years later when they turned the trick against the Wild. (Edit... Oops! Forgot about Jones)
- The 2010 Bruins. No one on that team had ever blown a 3-1 lead before, and no one on that team ever has since. (Though the seven surviving players are scattered on Edmonton, Buffalo, Islanders, and Winnipeg, with three on the Bruins, so there's plenty of chances for it to happen. It almost did last year)

----------------------------
The 87-95 Capitals had nine players blow two series with them: Pivonka, Miller, Bondra, Langway, Hatcher, Ridley, Johansson, Hunter, Cote and Khristich. Pivonka and Miller were there for all three.

The choking flu may have started in Washington. They had it bad for a nine-season span, during which time they brought in players with experience choking in three different cities. Just after they beat their illness (for 15 years at least), three of their ex-players spread it to three new cities: Gonchar (Boston), Jones (Colorado), and Berube (Philadelphia).

The 2011-2014 Penguins had 8 repeat chokers, though Malkin and Crosby are not among them. Missing one of those players each time is probably precisely why they choked.

Can you believe Winnipeg had only five players who played in the whole 1990 series and the whole 1992 series two years later?

In the span that Keith Jones choked three times, only one other team in the league managed to do it once! It happened four times in a six-season span, and three of those four times, Jones was involved.

Players whose chokes spanned ten seasons: Mellanby (16), Tocchet (13), Tkachuk (12), Klatt (12), Bertuzzi (11), Thornton (11), Primeau (10), MacInnis (10), Gonchar (10).

Captains on this list: Ovechkin (2), Langway (2), Sakic (2), Tkachuk (1), Hunter (1), Steen (1), MacInnis (1), Naslund (1), Thornton (1). These are, of course, not the only captains to blow a series, just the only ones who blew a series multiple times, AND were captain at least one of those times.

There have been 62 players who have suffered this fate two or more times. Keith Tkachuk, the reason this conversation began, is in some pretty elite company, though: One of only eight to do it three times, and one of only four to do it twice for one franchise and once for another.

Only goalies on the list did pretty well for themselves otherwise...

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Very interesting - and a lot more common than I thought.

I had always held it against Tkachuk for being (who I thought was) the only player in NHL history to play on three teams that blew 3-1 leads. Still a rare occurrence, but definitely more frequent than I expected.

There are some big names and top players performers (ie the Avs trio, MacInnis, etc.) who only did this one fewer time than Tkachuk - not that I'm suggesting he's anywhere close to them as a playoff performer - but still interesting.

 

[trentmccleary]

Lindros was injured enough to know how peak LeClair played without him. And in the NHL, LeClair scored at an almost identical rate with and without Lindros. But his +/- was much worse without Lindros.

And of course, there was no Lindros on Team USA when LeClair was excellent in the 1996 World Cup.

With Kariya's induction, LeClair has the best All-Star record of any eligible player not in the HHOF. I realize it was at a pretty weak position, but it hasn't stopped literally every other LW or RW with a similar record from being inducted.

It's a lot of small sample sizes that add up to barely over a season through a 5 year stretch. Otherwise he has an 80% game overlap with by far the 2nd most productive player during those 5.5 years.
Maybe he scored at an identical rate because; A) it was very short term each time, so he maintained confidence and din't get burned enough defensively because... B) Philly was playing a wide open game relying on a generational player to justify it. The fact that Leclair's +/- was much worse isn't surprising, because he wouldn't be able to dominate a high flying style, so Philly would have hired a defensive coach before 2002 if Lindros were gone/done earlier. The key takeaway is that he was a pumpkin in Montreal, turns into a beautiful horse drawn carriage with fairy godmother Lindros and then turns back into a pumpkin the minute he's traded.

We're into a weird period where the players we're seeing come up for eligibility aren't usually able to match the legacies of recent inductees. Scoring has gone down and we already talk lots about that. However, we ignore the fact that players aren't hitting the top-10's, getting the AST's, trophies or Cups like they used to because there are so many teams and so much competition. But somehow we also wind up with players like Leclair, Naslund and Heatley; who hit the high water marks and do absolutely nothing else in their careers. They were usually only able to hit those highs because of a great situation they lucked into. Meanwhile, Tkachuk plays in the shadow of Leclair and Naslund because of his injuries... but is clearly better than both because he can produce similarly with any linemate over time.

Doug Wilson absolutely
Barrasso too

It’s a shame these two aren’t already in.

Both would be solid inductions.

The clear best?

I think most would take LeClair, Naslund, Tkachuk or Heatley over Elias

I watched probably 90-95% of the games Heatley played in Ottawa and I would take Elias over him without blinking. You got the feeling that if the net were replaced with a flipped over pool table, Heatley could have converted 6 Spezza passes into goals in each pocket. Conversely; he was incredibly lazy, could barely skate, was poor defensively, was soft along the boards and would regularly take slashing penalties to avenge clean hits.

Tkachuk clearly had the best career offensively out of all of those players, however it was injury plagued.

Here is Jarome Iginla's entire career by best per game ratios vs only the seasons that Tkachuk & Iginla were in the NHL together, so 3 of his best seasons aren't even counted.

PPG	JI	KT
1.00&up	5	4
0.90&up	7	7
0.80&up	12	9
GPG	JI	KT
0.60&up	2	1
0.50&up	5	5
0.40&up	9	8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The following 3 seasons were removed from Keith Tkachuk's career vs Iginla's whole career in the table above.
1994 = 84-41-40-81, 0.49, 0.96
1995 = 48-22-29-51, 0.46, 1.06
1996 = 76-50-48-98, 0.66, 1.29

LeClair was more than good for 5.5 years. He was exceptional, and achieved a lot, too. He wasn't bad in other years, either.

Leclair produced at a 50 point pace the rest of his career during some pretty high scoring NHL seasons.

Where does Zubov rank among the best defensemen of his era?

Lidstrom
Niedermayer
MacInnis
Bourque
Blake
Chelios
Chara
Leetch
Pronger

That's nine, just off the top of my head, who played at the same time as Zubov did and I'd say all were/are better. I'm probably missing a couple and drawing a blank. Was Zubov better than Housley?

Bourque and Chara's careers have a range of almost 40 years, so I don't think that they're a part of the same era... especially since most elite players are lucky to have a 10 year prime.

From 1994-1999 (5 yrs): Zubov was 3rd in points and 3rd in PPG among D-men (250gp min)
From 2000-2004 (5 yrs): Zubov was 5th in points and 7th in PPG among D-men (250gp min)
From 2006-2010 (5 yrs): Zubov was 176th in GP, 32nd in points and 3rd in PPG among D-men (200gp min)

1998-2002 (5yrs): 8th in TOI/GP with 2:40 SH TOI
2003-2008 (5yrs): 7th in TOI/GP with 3:17 SH TOI

Also, did you see all of those arguments about how important Elias was to two Cup winners & two SC finalists and how much he produced in the playoffs? Zubov produced basically the exact same career playoff numbers as Elias, while helping lead two Cup winners and one SC finalist.

i'm paging c1958 here because this is how he talks about some of his favourite players, but patrik elias could do anything you needed him to do. he could play all three forward positions, he could be your number one goal scoring threat, he could be your playmaker and carry brian gionta to almost 50 goals, he could run your powerplay, he killed penalties, and he wasn't john madden or bobby holik but he was a good defensive player. whatever you needed he was there.

but this is the way i think about patrik elias and why, and i understand this is a minority opinion, i have him as the best of that trio of him, alfredsson, and hossa. he says he prefers his 2003 cup to his 2000 one.

Other people see Alfredsson and Hossa as also being very versatile players, who also put much better offensive numbers and received more Selke attention than Elias did during his career.

there's a reason why good organizations keep the guys they keep and reluctantly let go of the guys they have to let go of.

about how many guys did lamoriello say, i can't lose this guy? elias could have gone the way of holik, who of course new jersey would have liked to keep if the numbers were right. or he could have been traded when the team needed a new direction, like sykora and arnott, decisions which by the way won them a cup. but lou thought it over again and decided he couldn't lose elias.

Was Elias ever offered the type of contract that Holik got from the Rangers?

Heatley is the one who would make me think about it - he really was an elite goalscorer. Näslund has season finishes but ultimately was a loser much like Tkachuk. Elias could seamlessly switch between center and winger and was elite defensively while being a very good offensive contributer (although only hitting 80 pts twice was kind of surprising to me, lower scoring era or not).

Never saw LeClair so have no opinion on him though three seasons straight of +50 goals is very impressive.

Do not agree with him being the best out of him, Alfredsson and Hossa, though. He'd be third for me. Versatility be damned.

Heatley was an objectively terrible hockey player though. You always knew back in those days, that when he starts to slip; the ice time would dry up real fast and he'd be out of the league quickly.

Regardless of your own preferences, it's incredibly obvious that the HHOF committee not only cares about personal contribution to team success, but it also flat out cares about team success itself.

And the best forward on every multiple-Cup winner in history is in the HHOF, except (for now) Elias.

Elias has probably done well enough against his cohort that the team success will help give him that last little push.

Wasn't every other "best forward on every multiple-Cup winner" the star that the team was built around?

What about Ryan miller will he have a shot at the hall after he retires, he was a very good goalie for about 7 years he carried Buffalo on his back in his early years in the playoffs. Even though he lost back to back conference finals.

No, probably not. He basically just duplicated Kolzig's career and he's not in either. Lundqvist and Luongo will probably represent this era.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Are you sure? This happens so often that I find it hard to believe Tkachuk is the only one to ever be a victim of it twice. What about someone on the 90s Capitals?

oops got that wrong. it was a stat i heard a long time ago: only player to blow three 3-1 series leads. forgot one in phoenix when your boy turgeon took the series in game seven, double ot.

but that might be out of date info by now.

 

[seventieslord]

oops got that wrong. it was a stat i heard a long time ago: only player to blow three 3-1 series leads. forgot one in phoenix when your boy turgeon took the series in game seven, double ot.

but that might be out of date info by now.

Looks like it was out of date to begin with... He would have been the sixth when it happened to him.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Looks like it was out of date to begin with... He would have been the sixth when it happened to him.

huh. would love to see that list. any of them hall of famers?

anyone make it to four ?

EDIT: was on my phone, didn't see that you had already posted the data.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Other people see Alfredsson and Hossa as also being very versatile players, who also put much better offensive numbers and received more Selke attention than Elias did during his career.

no need to get into this again. i like and respect both of those guys tremendously and of course they both are also easily ahead of leclair, tkachuk, naslund, and heatley, which was the point of what i was saying.

fwiw, i wasn't saying that i like elias more than those other two because he was versatile (though as good as those two were i don't think either could credibly play all three forward positions). it was what came after the part you quoted: that he said he was happier winning on a team where he wasn't the man up front and everything went through him and went his way because that was devils hockey. not saying alfredsson or hossa were selfish players, of course, but there is something incredible about what quote to me. i mean, sure, elias still led the 2003 stanley cup finals in scoring, but i would count madden and langenbrunner as more important up front than him that year, and more successful. idk, maybe a lot of people would find it silly, but to me it feels like something tim duncan would say (and honestly mean it).

Was Elias ever offered the type of contract that Holik got from the Rangers?

we have no proof, but probably, at least if you account for there being a salary cap (the holik contract was $45 mill/5). so elias says he was about to sign on the dotted line with the rangers in 2007. if you look at the contracts they gave chris drury and scott gomez in 2008 ($35.25 million/5 yrs and $51.5 mill/7 yrs, respectively) and note that elias was easily a way better player than both, coming off a half season (post hep-a) that would have had him 9th in scoring over a full season, was czech (so probably personally hand-picked by jagr), and had just basically single-handedly swept the rangers all by himself (5 goals, 11 points), you have to think that would have been a crazy contract. as it stands, he got lou to give him $42 mill/6 yrs, so basically the exact same cap hit as the two disasters the next year that were both eventually bought out. you have to think that the rangers' elias offer was even higher right?

 

[HawkNut]

LeClair had two injury plagued seasons after 1999-2000, and three other 50-point seasons. That wasn't high scoring if it was still considered the Dead Puck Era. Three of those seasons were all 20 goal seasons.

 

[Neutrinos]

no need to get into this again. i like and respect both of those guys tremendously and of course they both are also easily ahead of leclair, tkachuk, naslund, and heatley, which was the point of what i was saying.

fwiw, i wasn't saying that i like elias more than those other two because he was versatile (though as good as those two were i don't think either could credibly play all three forward positions). it was what came after the part you quoted: that he said he was happier winning on a team where he wasn't the man up front and everything went through him and went his way because that was devils hockey. not saying alfredsson or hossa were selfish players, of course, but there is something incredible about what quote to me. i mean, sure, elias still led the 2003 stanley cup finals in scoring, but i would count madden and langenbrunner as more important up front than him that year, and more successful. idk, maybe a lot of people would find it silly, but to me it feels like something tim duncan would say (and honestly mean it).

Maybe in terms of overall career. Maybe. But it could be argued they all peaked higher than Alfie and Hossa

 

[GlitchMarner]

Maybe in terms of overall career. Maybe. But it could be argued they all peaked higher than Alfie and Hossa

Hossa was a 100 point scorer that helped carry the '07 Thrashers into the playoffs. I doubt Heatley was ever better than he was that season when you consider how much better Hossa was defensively. Alfredsson's best Hart voting finish (fifth) in better than Heatley's best (tenth).

 

[Neutrinos]

Hossa was a 100 point scorer that helped carry the '07 Thrashers into the playoffs. I doubt Heatley was ever better than he was that season when you consider how much better Hossa was defensively. Alfredsson's best Hart voting finish (fifth) in better than Heatley's best (tenth).

Adjusting for era, Heatley has 3 100+ point seasons, Hossa and Alfie have 1 apiece

With that said, at quick glance it looks as though Alfie had 96 adjusted points in only 70 games one season, so I'll give him credit for 2

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

now, was elias lucky to have been drafted by the devils, come up in that great albany system, have jacques lemaire as his first coach, then larry robinson, soak up the wisdom of scott stevens, marty brodeur, doug gilmour, claude lemieux, and guys like that? of course he was. but naslund came in under mario and then later had messier. john leclair was drafted by the habs when they were still churning out and was developed by a system and culture that produced patrick roy, guy carbonneau, lemieux, eric desjardins, and enough cup rings to fill a room.

This strikes me is a disingenuous representation of events. Admittedly, when he joined the Penguins he was mentally weak and homesick. But to say that he 'had Messier', I mean that was one of the most dysfunctional eras in the history of a team with a dysfunctional history. I know Naslund credits Messier for helping his career, and I don't doubt he did. But this isn't Messier from 89 or 94. This is Messier who is rotting a team from the inside.

I also think that Naslund gets blamed a lot for the failings of his team. He was by far the best player on the Canucks. Yes, Bertuzzi had stretches over a year and a half stretch where he was unstoppable, but for all intents and purposes, the team was built around Naslund. A winger. Name me a team that was built around a winger that had any type of prolonged playoff success?

 

[GlitchMarner]

Adjusting for era, Heatley has 3 100+ point seasons, Hossa and Alfie have 1 apiece

With that said, at quick glance it looks as though Alfie had 96 adjusted points in only 70 games one season, so I'll give him credit for 2

Still, in his absolute best season, I doubt he was better than '07 Hossa and I think Hossa easily had a better career.

I believe a lot of Sens fans would prefer Alfredsson at his best over peak Heatley (at least when he was with OTT) on a per game basis. Atlanta Heatley was a better skater and player than OTT Heatley, though, I guess.

 

[wetcoast]

Oh Elias is a lock to get in at some point. The man was a coach's dream for reasons you say. The HHOF standards aren't as high as some people think.

I think Elias should make it in but saying that he is a lock to do so?

 

[streitz]

Within 20 years every player with 1k points will be in the HHOF.

 

[wetcoast]

This strikes me is a disingenuous representation of events. Admittedly, when he joined the Penguins he was mentally weak and homesick. But to say that he 'had Messier', I mean that was one of the most dysfunctional eras in the history of a team with a dysfunctional history. I know Naslund credits Messier for helping his career, and I don't doubt he did. But this isn't Messier from 89 or 94. This is Messier who is rotting a team from the inside.

I also think that Naslund gets blamed a lot for the failings of his team. He was by far the best player on the Canucks. Yes, Bertuzzi had stretches over a year and a half stretch where he was unstoppable, but for all intents and purposes, the team was built around Naslund. A winger. Name me a team that was built around a winger that had any type of prolonged playoff success?

I think Naslund is too much of a class act to say otherwise about Messier (not that I have any proof that he might think that way).

That said I doubt that Naslund makes it in, he is missing something extra that most HHOF voters seem to be looking for.

The case for is being 4th in NHL scoring during his 8 year prime, 3rd in goals

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The case against is his poor playoffs, scoring being down a lot in that era and that scoring has gone up in this current era, which is something that I'm not sure voters are going to factor in given the Dave Andreychuk addition.

If he had a slightly higher peak or better playoff year that would help him a ton.

 

[wetcoast]

Within 20 years every player with 1k points will be in the HHOF.

That would be a big NO, at least a dozen guys with over 1000 points are always going to need to buy a ticket to get into the HHOF.

Even a current guy Spezza, if he plays long enough to get to 1000 points (I don't think that he will) will never make it in.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Doug Wilson is not a Hall of Famer

Why should that stop him from getting in ?

 

[Say Hey Kid]

That would be a big NO, at least a dozen guys with over 1000 points are always going to need to buy a ticket to get into the HHOF. Even a current guy Spezza, if he plays long enough to get to 1000 points (I don't think that he will) will never make it in.

Agreed. Turgeon's not getting in for example.

 

[wetcoast]

Agreed. Turgeon's not getting in for example.

There are 28 players with 1000 points and aren't in. About a half dozen of them aren't eligible and are getting in first ballot.

My guess is that maybe 5 or 6 of the rest make it in and even then I'm not sure.