HFNHL Off Season Sim God Thread

[Ville Isopaa]

I'll need EX and LD for Ryan Jonson and Ryan Potulny, but outside of that Columbus' ratings set looks complete. Other players in a similar boat include Garnet Exelby (BOS), Blair Betts and Christian Ehrhoff (MTL), Mark Streit (NJD), Mattias Ohlund (TAM), and Mark Stuart (LAK).

There are also a number of players with no rating. In most cases these are prospects who are a few years away from the NHL, or players who have retired in recent seasons. In some cases (such as PK Subban), however, they represent gaps in the file. Perhaps each team can review their roster and let us know which unrated players are likely to need ratings?

Actually Ryan Johnson goes to your prospect list as he hasn't played since the spring of 2011. Same with Betts and Öhlund.

 

[Wildman]

The games played, or rather minutes played is one of the many stats used in ranking and rating the goalies. As for Bob and Budaj playing more, that is reflected in their higher EN rating (54, 45 and 36). As for the skill ratings take a look at what they actually have done in the past two seasons. The skill ratings of MacDonald are higher than Budaj or Bobrovsky, but if the ratings work the way they are supposed Bobrovsky and Budaj should still be able to handle more starts due to a higher EN rating.

MacDonald
10-11: 15 gp, 2.54 GAA, .917 SV%, 1 SO
11-12: 14 gp, 2.16 GAA, .912 SV%, 0 SO

Budaj
10-11: 45 gp, 3.20 GAA, .895 SV%, 1 SO
11-12: 17 gp, 2.55 GAA, .913 SV%, 0 SO

Bobrovsky
10-11: 54 gp, 2.59 GAA, .915 SV%, 0 SO
11-12: 29 gp, 3.02 GAA, .899 SV%, 0 SO

Hello Ville,

So how do you justify 85 rating for Elliot and 77 Ratings for Nobokov and Rask. Take a look at the stats for the three goalies below and it is clear to me that both my goalie had better stats than Elliot 2 year average:

Brian Elliot
10-11 55GP 3.34GA .893SV% 3 SO
11-12 38GP 1.56GA .940SV% 9 SO
93GP 2.64GA .912SV% .129 SO per game



Tuuka Rask
10-11 23GP 2.05GA .929SV% 3 SO
11-12 29GP 2.67GA .918SV% 2 SO
52 GP 2.39GA .923SV% .096 SO per Game


Evgeny Nobokov
10-11 71GP 2.43 0.922 3 SO
11-12 42GP 2.55 0.914 2 SO
113GP 2.47GA .919SV% .044 SO per Game

 

[Hossa]

Evgeny Nobokov
10-11 71GP 2.43 0.922 3 SO
11-12 42GP 2.55 0.914 2 SO
113GP 2.47GA .919SV% .044 SO per Game

Nabokov has the year in Russia as well remember. He didn't play in the 2010-11 season.

 

[HFNHLOilers]

The games played, or rather minutes played is one of the many stats used in ranking and rating the goalies. As for Bob and Budaj playing more, that is reflected in their higher EN rating (54, 45 and 36). As for the skill ratings take a look at what they actually have done in the past two seasons. The skill ratings of MacDonald are higher than Budaj or Bobrovsky, but if the ratings work the way they are supposed Bobrovsky and Budaj should still be able to handle more starts due to a higher EN rating.

MacDonald
10-11: 15 gp, 2.54 GAA, .917 SV%, 1 SO
11-12: 14 gp, 2.16 GAA, .912 SV%, 0 SO

Budaj
10-11: 45 gp, 3.20 GAA, .895 SV%, 1 SO
11-12: 17 gp, 2.55 GAA, .913 SV%, 0 SO

Bobrovsky
10-11: 54 gp, 2.59 GAA, .915 SV%, 0 SO
11-12: 29 gp, 3.02 GAA, .899 SV%, 0 SO

Okay found an irregularity

Steve Mason 71 OV

10-11: 54GP 3.03GAA 901SV%
11-12: 46GP 3.39GAA 894SV%

So big difference in stats but higher OV than Budaj and Bobrovsky?

 

[Wildman]

Nabokov has the year in Russia as well remember. He didn't play in the 2010-11 season.

Than how do you justify 87 rating last season when he didn't play the previous year in NHL.

 

[Canuck09]

Okay found an irregularity

Steve Mason 71 OV

10-11: 54GP 3.03GAA 901SV%
11-12: 46GP 3.39GAA 894SV%

So big difference in stats but higher OV than Budaj and Bobrovsky?

I don't think we should focus on OV at all. I know it's the easiest number to compare, but it's really a meaningless number that can be changed to reflect completely different results based on what ratings are weighted more heavily.

Than how do you justify 87 rating last season when he didn't play the previous year in NHL.

I think his rating last year was ridiculous given he didn't play an entire year. But back to OV, I don't think we should be comparing OV year over year when the people doing the ratings have changed how they were created. It's no longer 2 year averages is it? Aren't we on the equivalent of 2 years worth of games played?

 

[Hossa]

Than how do you justify 87 rating last season when he didn't play the previous year in NHL.

I'm not justifying anything, I'm just pointing out a mistake in your post which might be relevant. But you're right, I couldn't justify an 87 last season because, like Jeff, I thought that was bizarre.

 

[Ohio Jones]

I don't think we should be comparing OV year over year when the people doing the ratings have changed how they were created. It's no longer 2 year averages is it? Aren't we on the equivalent of 2 years worth of games played?

Last year's, IIRC, were a weighted three-year average. This year is a sliding 164 games using a different formula, so you're correct: comparing last year's to this year's is apples to oranges.

We looked at a number of different ratings schemes and this is the one that we felt ranked the goalies in production most consistently. We also used third-party scouting reports to help tailor the isicidual oalie raings to reflect individual goalies' stregths and weaknesses. We still have to run test seasons based on the ratings before we know how effective they are in practice.

 

[Fooladelfia]

Question why Halak has a very low endurance rating 67?

Jaroslav Halak play 46+57+45= 148 games last 3 seasons and he has 67 in endurance

Corey Crawford play 57+57+1= 115 games last 3 seasons and he has 72 in endurance

 

[Dempsey]

I think the ratings look really good.

 

[kasper11]

I think the DF ratings seem high across the board, will be interesting to see how the tests go.

That said, can our Board Demigod move the ratings discussion to a new thread an give Matt back his Sim God thread?

 

[Fooladelfia]

I think the ratings look really good.

Shut-up champion

 

[Wildman]

Last year's, IIRC, were a weighted three-year average. This year is a sliding 164 games using a different formula, so you're correct: comparing last year's to this year's is apples to oranges.

We looked at a number of different ratings schemes and this is the one that we felt ranked the goalies in production most consistently. We also used third-party scouting reports to help tailor the isicidual oalie raings to reflect individual goalies' stregths and weaknesses. We still have to run test seasons based on the ratings before we know how effective they are in practice.

I am not questioning about Nobokov or Rask but just trying to understand the logic on how this was put together. If we are going to penalize a player because he set out than we should penalize a player who has missed a chunk of games due to injuries. I still don't understand why Elliot rating is 85 rated when he only played 38 games last season and before that he was below average goalie as indicated on my postings.

 

[Fooladelfia]

I am not questioning about Nobokov or Rask but just trying to understand the logic on how this was put together. If we are going to penalize a player because he set out than we should penalize a player who has missed a chunk of games due to injuries. I still don't understand why Elliot rating is 85 rated when he only played 38 games last season and before that he was below average goalie as indicated on my postings.

WOW Elliott better than Halak too.....hmmm No comprendo nada.

 

[HFNHLOilers]

Okay so basically my understanding of the new system is if you have a goalie in a top team you'll succesed because there stats will be a lot better than someone like Bobrovsky who will likely suffer from bad stats because the team can't play in front of him. That's my issue with the new system I get making it more realistic that goalies can't play 82 games a year. Coughdadcough makes sense but now you have guys like Schneider talented kid but not a started yet who plays in front of an amazing team got an 80 Elliot 85 etc Then you have a starter who can start more in Mason a 71 backups become gods in this new system if they can play well. Example Allan frigin York has similar ratings to Bobrovsky? Its a bit silly but I'll shut up now

 

[Dryden]

You learn arithmetic from Bill Clinton also, Zach?

 

[MatthewFlames]

That said, can our Board Demigod move the ratings discussion to a new thread an give Matt back his Sim God thread?

I think its totally fine - thanks for thinking of me, lots of brownie points - but continue on...

 

[Hossa]

I think its totally fine - thanks for thinking of me, lots of brownie points - but continue on...

So what's left on your hit list then? Round 2 signings?

 

[PasiK]

I am not questioning about Nobokov or Rask but just trying to understand the logic on how this was put together. If we are going to penalize a player because he set out than we should penalize a player who has missed a chunk of games due to injuries. I still don't understand why Elliot rating is 85 rated when he only played 38 games last season and before that he was below average goalie as indicated on my postings.

I agree with Elliott, I havent check ratings, but if Elliott has 85OV, then something has changed?

I was told when haivng him still, that there is some 40g limit and if goalies wont play more then they will be rated lower .. but OV85 sounds like he is best goalies in league even played only 38games in NHL .. weird .. i feel like fooled

 

[PasiK]

Dont want to read all posts but can someone shortly tell what has happened?

are formulas, to calculate ratings, changed? and change has taken impact immediately? no transition period, like normally is when standards or laws are modified.

and if change is done, where it is said?

If for example goalies, games played, thresholds are lowered, that really has huge impact for Elliott. I had him and traded him because knowing he didnt played needed 40 games to get over OV80 ratings and now it seems that this threshold is lowered to 30 games and vola ... OV85!

fooled

 

[Ville Isopaa]

I agree with Elliott, I havent check ratings, but if Elliott has 85OV, then something has changed?

I was told when haivng him still, that there is some 40g limit and if goalies wont play more then they will be rated lower .. but OV85 sounds like he is best goalies in league even played only 38games in NHL .. weird .. i feel like fooled

Dont want to read all posts but can someone shortly tell what has happened?

are formulas, to calculate ratings, changed? and change has taken impact immediately? no transition period, like normally is when standards or laws are modified.

and if change is done, where it is said?

If for example goalies, games played, thresholds are lowered, that really has huge impact for Elliott. I had him and traded him because knowing he didnt played needed 40 games to get over OV80 ratings and now it seems that this threshold is lowered to 30 games and vola ... OV85!

fooled

I checked the message history and that discussion about Elliott and his potential ratings was from January 25th, long before any ratings for this season was even started and Elliott improved his stats a fair bit after that discussion. There was nothing there about Elliott being rated as a backup and I even warned you about the possible changes in the way the ratings would be created in the future as there was discussion going on about that. The threshold hasn't as much been lowered, rather it has been erased and the ratings have been made with a different formula with the hope that the sim would take care of limiting the games played by backup and depth goalies.

In fact if you look back to any season in the past there has been more or less changes in the formulas to calculate the ratings. The one constant has been that the ratings have been created by ranking the goalies in every stat category and overall rather than to give every stat number a weight in the final rating.

 

[PasiK]

warned .. Havent got any warnings .. Nor from the current elliott owner or trade committee, but let it be, hopefully these changes for ratings will be more clear and more visible. I can live with players i got for elliott.

 

[Brock]

Just one small error for the Panthers.

Scott Nichol should be with the Minnesota Wild. The contract is correct, but I didn't resign him, Minnesota did.

 

[MatthewFlames]

So what's left on your hit list then? Round 2 signings?

euros/retirees and a couple trades.

all the prelim ratings are in and udfa etc. created.

you can find ratings for players in the 2013 folder now (the main one from the front page)

from the www.hfnhl.com/2012/Index.html file you can find the unassigned players list, which has the prelim rookie ratings.

 

[Circulartheory]

Great job!

To sum up for the Wild:

Nichol should be with the Wild.
Fowler (or Folwer) needs ratings as well.