Has your faith in Holland been shattered?

[MoontoScott]

The Oilers were linked to Kuemper for over a year. With Arizona showing willingness to take on salary for picks (2nd round picks!), there seemed to be an avenue to flush Koskinen with a first rounder to land Kuemper. Instead of jumping in early within this dumping window, Holland opted to wait out Arizona on the cost. When the goalie carousel stopped the price went up and Colorado assertively and quickly addressed their issue. Opportunity lost.

The Nurse signings will have some implications.

-If Puls wants a huge raise to stick around after this season then he may be disappointed. I don't see how he comes in under the 2022-23 cap (with a substantial hike) which now looks like it stands at around 83M for the Oilers--even after the Klef LTIR move.

-At 8 years it also impacts what you can pay the 3 up and coming D-men as they (hopefully) emerge to top 4 status. Ditto for a #1 goalie--I can't see gigantic bucks being spent there.

-Well interesting times in the NHL but that's the going rate for #1 D-men. As recently as a year ago some people on the thread were calling Nurse a bust--hopefully last year was a true indicator of ability.

-At the end of the day its Katz's money to do with as he pleases. I'm sure he had to ok this contract.

 

[North Cole]

overpaying players can be okay, as long as their is a plan for the cap. I'm very on the fence now. I could figure this out in EA's NHL video games Be a GM but real life is harder (I'm told).

I see the sarcasm, but the hard part about doing this in real life is that these are people and your moves have positive and negative impacts on the player signing, but also his teammates. Look how much flak we got for bringing in Manning. If you trade a 7th for that guy in NHL 21, no one gives a shit, the game just plugs him. In real life people say...wait a minute, isn't that the guy that busted McDavids collarbone then shit talked him?

Managing the cap is not impossible because you have people do help you with the contracts, AAVs, front loading, back loading, etc. Video games have no real mechanics for actually determining where a player will go or what they will sign for with different teams. The Fox situation would never happen, but Calgary got f***ing owned because the guy had a GF in NY and wanted to leave. Same with Dubois, same with Trouba, the list goes on.

This contract is bad and it's overpaid, but we have literally no way of replacing this player unless you want to go to the well and try to pull someone better as a UFA next year - which obviously you now risk that the player won't want to come here. Look at how shitty the goaltending situation worked out for us, now imagine that happens to us next year trying to replace Darnell Nurse.

The issue with this site is that very few people actually analyze things in the context of a business, they just pull a spreadsheet out of their ass (I have time for stats) and say "uhhh 33% WAR, bruh this guy ain't worth more than 7M, let him kick rocks". Then we have no #1D and the team is back in the toilet, now you run the risk of McDavid telling us to go f*** ourselves in 4 years because we are missing the playoffs again.

EDIT - Example is look at how much people hate the Keith deal. Now imagine Nurse leaves and Keith is our #1. LOL this place would melt down. Instead we can be relatively mad that we overpaid nurse, rather than having an atomic meltdown that Keith is our 1LD.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The Nurse signings will have some implications.

-If Puls wants a huge raise to stick around after this season then he may be disappointed. I don't see how he comes in under the 2022-23 cap (with a substantial hike) which now looks like it stands at around 83M for the Oilers--even after the Klef LTIR move.

-At 8 years it also impacts what you can pay the 3 up and coming D-men as they (hopefully) emerge to top 4 status. Ditto for a #1 goalie--I can't see gigantic bucks being spent there.

-Well interesting times in the NHL but that's the going rate for #1 D-men. As recently as a year ago some people on the thread were calling Nurse a bust--hopefully last year was a true indicator of ability.

-At the end of the day its Katz's money to do with as he pleases. I'm sure he had to ok this contract.

Talent's gonna get paid especially after this summer's massive deals for lead defensemen. I was hoping Nurse would come in at $8 million/year but could see that fly out the window with the eye popping deals for Seth Jones and Hamilton. I can't question Nurse's commitment and importance to the Oiler organization as a cornerstone to competing for a Stanley Cup. However this price point is another squeeze on a team that is challenged to attract elite talent and which basically always has to pay market+ (Barrie and exceptional Carona Cup season aside). I don't begrudge Nurse for maxing his salary after the organization walked him to this point with the bridge deals.

The Oilers still are an unfinished book though imo. I will have questions about their defense until we see maybe around the midway mark how the reconfigured group holds up. They've bet term that Ceci can be a quality support defender. And goaltending is a Mike Smith injury or regression away from big troubles at the game's most important position.

A big day getting the final elite Oiler signed long-term. But still roster question marks to becoming an elite team. Kenny's going to have to sharpen his pencil with few bucks to throw around and more finishing work to do.

 

[CanmoreMike]

I would've loved to see Nurse signed cheaper sooner...obviously didn't happen.

Regardless of contracts the success of this team is going to be built on their draft success.

If we've drafted 3-6 decent NHLers already and are drafting more in the future this team will be okay. If our cupboard is bare it'll be a challenge.

 

[Beerfish]

I would've loved to see Nurse signed cheaper sooner...obviously didn't happen.

Regardless of contracts the success of this team is going to be built on their draft success.

If we've drafted 3-6 decent NHLers already and are drafting more in the future this team will be okay. If our cupboard is bare it'll be a challenge.

Holland has traded away most of our picks (in most cases just squandered them) and two out of his three first rounders were very dubious picks considering who was sitting them for him.

 

[Aerchon]

Holland has traded away most of our picks (in most cases just squandered them) and two out of his three first rounders were very dubious picks considering who was sitting them for him.

I feel very confident saying Holland is a bad GM. I think the vast majority of his work have been very poor in the environment they were made. Overpays and poor planning in abundance.

If we have success in the coming years it will be in spite of Holland not because of.

Having said that, after he royaly botched Nurses bridge contract he at least got him signed. That is far better than I was expecting from the bumbling old fool.

Technically speaking, gross overpay as it was, getting Nurse to sign for 8 years... after foolishly walking him to UFA status.

Maximizes the UFA years.
Gives McDrai a player to stick around with.
Keeps him in Oilers silks during his prime and stops short of any years where a significant drop due to age should occur.

Holland has made many mistakes and we absolutely should have got him cheaper but at least we got him.

 

[Cam98]

Imagine if we don't make playoffs next season due to weaker D and same G tandem. Nurse regresses and doesn't improve upon this previous season. Holland now brought on his own cap hell after stating "be patient" to relieve himself from Chias mess to bring upon his own. I wouldn't care too much about this contract if he hadn't gone and paid Caleb Jones and 3rd for 38 yearold 5.5m Keith.

 

[GOilers88]

I feel very confident saying Holland is a bad GM. I think the vast majority of his work have been very poor in the environment they were made. Overpays and poor planning in abundance.

If we have success in the coming years it will be in spite of Holland not because of.

Having said that, after he royaly botched Nurses bridge contract he at least got him signed. That is far better than I was expecting from the bumbling old fool.

Technically speaking, gross overpay as it was, getting Nurse to sign for 8 years... after foolishly walking him to UFA status.

Maximizes the UFA years.
Gives McDrai a player to stick around with.
Keeps him in Oilers silks during his prime and stops short of any years where a significant drop due to age should occur.

Holland has made many mistakes and we absolutely should have got him cheaper but at least we got him.

So if guys like Hyman, Foegele, Barrie, Keith, Ceci and Ryan help contribute to the team having more success than last season it's in spite of Holland acquiring them? Nevermind any of the prospects drafted under him?

 

[MessierII]

Imagine if we don't make playoffs next season due to weaker D and same G tandem. Nurse regresses and doesn't improve upon this previous season. Holland now brought on his own cap hell after stating "be patient" to relieve himself from Chias mess to bring upon his own. I wouldn't care too much about this contract if he hadn't gone and paid Caleb Jones and 3rd for 38 yearold 5.5m Keith.

Keith is too much money but Jones and a 3rd is one step up from nothing and Keith is an upgrade over all our left D besides Nurse.

 

[McCombo]

When Holland build the Red Wings he had a huge edge on scouting. They drafted and signed a lot of Swede's and Russian's. Does he have a edge nowdays. I don't think so, if anything the edge is against Oilers. We have good old hockey guys making decisions and nothing screams that they even try to invest in analytical approach. There are multiple teams that have a big edge from there.

Four years remaining on Draisaitl's deal, four really important years for this organization. And this is the core they have to win. This is Holland's team, Koskinen is the only remaining anchor from Chias regime.

Personally I am not that thrilled what he came up. The team is better (no question), but I think it still needs multiple youngster to become regular players, players who move the needle. There won't be a lot of money to spend anymore.

Defense is the biggest issue. On right side they need Bouchard to become 1st pairing player or at least top4. Bouchard - Barrie - Ceci would be fine. On the left side Keith is just a place holder. Broberg or Samorukov needs to become top4 defensemen.

Up front from Puljujärvi, Yamamoto and Holloway trio need two capable top6 players. Need definetely more than they showed last year. It would also help if McLeod would be capable 3C going forward. Forward situation looks promising.

Goaltending is a question mark, but I would worry first about becoming an elite team 5vs5. After that an average goalie starts to look good.

I won't have a lot of expectations for next year, team should make playoffs in weak Pacific, but going far in playoffs is a long shot. Though Montreal showed that anything can happen in short serieses.

After next year is the go time, hopefully.

 

[Zerotonine]

As bad as some people continue to think Holland is doing, he is still leaps better then any GM we have had in the last 10 years as bad as that might come off.

He has mad some good decisions, and some bad decisions, he has yet to make a horrible one IMO.

I think Holland will make or break his time with the Oilers on the goaltending situation as that is and has litterally been are biggest issue since Cujo . Sure Salo was serviceable but we have always lacked that true #1

 

[CanmoreMike]

I think regardless of who we have as a GM we would have tons of criticisms about their managing style.

Look at Yzerman who everyone holds up as the standard bearer.

His first draft he takes an oft-injured Brett Connolly over eventual Calder winner Jeff Skinner, Cam Fowler, Vladimir Tarasenko.

His third draft he takes Slater Koekoek over Filip Forsberg.

His fourth draft he takes Jonathan Drouin over highly touted Seth Jones who some were shocked didn't go #1 in the draft.

His fifth he takes Anthony D'Angelo over David Pastarnak.

He made the playoffs his first year, missed two, got swept in his fourth year, SCF and ECF next two years followed by a miss. He got to another ECF and then was swept in the first round.

He signed his two highest drafted prospects to deals that walked them to free agency. Don't like Nurse's extension? He's getting paid about 11% of the cap today. In 2016 Hedman who had a comparable career to Nurse at that point was signed to an extension at 11%.

Someone here is going to laud him for his teams late round draft success - but how would anyone know that he found some true jewels late in the draft years before they had success? And how does anyone know we aren't in the same boat with our prospects?

My point here isn't to shit on Yzerman. My point is to illustrate how the gold standard of GMs probably would've been run out of this city long before he eventually quit. The demands of this market and its fan base means that most GMs have to manage reactively rather than having a long term outlook.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

 

[tardigrade81]

I have faith in him.

to win a playoff series

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

what's the full list?

 

[McJadeddog]

That list doesn't mean much. I'm an athletic subscriber, and it was a vote mechanism by fans of the team, and fans of other teams. Other fans are less than useless when it comes to the Oilers (as is seen by the main boards here on HF), and Oilers fans are pretty hard on their own management group (understandably so I would argue, given the last 15-20 years). Honestly, and this is coming from a guy who has been fairly negative over the years (again, I would argue that it has been justified), this is based on the past, and not looking forward. It is a useless list.

 

[Aerchon]

As bad as some people continue to think Holland is doing, he is still leaps better then any GM we have had in the last 10 years as bad as that might come off.

He has mad some good decisions, and some bad decisions, he has yet to make a horrible one IMO.

I think Holland will make or break his time with the Oilers on the goaltending situation as that is and has litterally been are biggest issue since Cujo . Sure Salo was serviceable but we have always lacked that true #1

I think regardless of who we have as a GM we would have tons of criticisms about their managing style.

Look at Yzerman who everyone holds up as the standard bearer.

His first draft he takes an oft-injured Brett Connolly over eventual Calder winner Jeff Skinner, Cam Fowler, Vladimir Tarasenko.

His third draft he takes Slater Koekoek over Filip Forsberg.

His fourth draft he takes Jonathan Drouin over highly touted Seth Jones who some were shocked didn't go #1 in the draft.

His fifth he takes Anthony D'Angelo over David Pastarnak.

He made the playoffs his first year, missed two, got swept in his fourth year, SCF and ECF next two years followed by a miss. He got to another ECF and then was swept in the first round.

He signed his two highest drafted prospects to deals that walked them to free agency. Don't like Nurse's extension? He's getting paid about 11% of the cap today. In 2016 Hedman who had a comparable career to Nurse at that point was signed to an extension at 11%.

Someone here is going to laud him for his teams late round draft success - but how would anyone know that he found some true jewels late in the draft years before they had success? And how does anyone know we aren't in the same boat with our prospects?

My point here isn't to shit on Yzerman. My point is to illustrate how the gold standard of GMs probably would've been run out of this city long before he eventually quit. The demands of this market and its fan base means that most GMs have to manage reactively rather than having a long term outlook.

I have faith in him.

to win a playoff series

That list doesn't mean much. I'm an athletic subscriber, and it was a vote mechanism by fans of the team, and fans of other teams. Other fans are less than useless when it comes to the Oilers (as is seen by the main boards here on HF), and Oilers fans are pretty hard on their own management group (understandably so I would argue, given the last 15-20 years). Honestly, and this is coming from a guy who has been fairly negative over the years (again, I would argue that it has been justified), this is based on the past, and not looking forward. It is a useless list.

I agree measuring GM success is tough but...

Unfortunately statements like "better than anything we have had in ten years" shows a ton of fan bias that is mirrored in the list.

Chiarelli who is a bad GM and was terrible for us is technically a better GM than Holland to this point. He at least got us 7 playoff wins all in one run and had a worse roster to work with prior to being hired.

I think many fans love the idea of Holland because of the distant past and either don't know or don't care that he has been brutal for a long time.

Others let their hatred of Chiarelli's cloud their judgement.

But Holland has had zero real success which only comes in the playoffs and he has far far far more to work with that the average team.

I hate Holland's cap management, his asset management is even worse, his drafting suspect at times, and his few trades lopsided against us to say the least.

He has managed to cobble a good forward group but at the expense of D and goaltending. Not exactly a recipe for playoff success.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

That list doesn't mean much. I'm an athletic subscriber, and it was a vote mechanism by fans of the team, and fans of other teams. Other fans are less than useless when it comes to the Oilers (as is seen by the main boards here on HF), and Oilers fans are pretty hard on their own management group (understandably so I would argue, given the last 15-20 years). Honestly, and this is coming from a guy who has been fairly negative over the years (again, I would argue that it has been justified), this is based on the past, and not looking forward. It is a useless list.

There really hasn't been all that much reason to have faith in this org in the past number of years. Had the Oilers not been swept last playoffs that number would probably be lower, but this offseason has generated... mixed reactions.

 

[Oilhawks]

The Athletic comments section give HFMains a run for their money. Holland could have traded for Kuemper for a bag of pucks, Nurse signed to $4Mx8 and held a gun to Larsson’s head and got him to sign for $2.5Mx3 and they’d be around 25 or some shit.

Hell, I bet they could have made the second round or conference finals last playoffs and it wouldn’t be much higher

 

[Aceboogie]

I think regardless of who we have as a GM we would have tons of criticisms about their managing style.

Look at Yzerman who everyone holds up as the standard bearer.

His first draft he takes an oft-injured Brett Connolly over eventual Calder winner Jeff Skinner, Cam Fowler, Vladimir Tarasenko.

His third draft he takes Slater Koekoek over Filip Forsberg.

His fourth draft he takes Jonathan Drouin over highly touted Seth Jones who some were shocked didn't go #1 in the draft.

His fifth he takes Anthony D'Angelo over David Pastarnak.

He made the playoffs his first year, missed two, got swept in his fourth year, SCF and ECF next two years followed by a miss. He got to another ECF and then was swept in the first round.

He signed his two highest drafted prospects to deals that walked them to free agency. Don't like Nurse's extension? He's getting paid about 11% of the cap today. In 2016 Hedman who had a comparable career to Nurse at that point was signed to an extension at 11%.

Someone here is going to laud him for his teams late round draft success - but how would anyone know that he found some true jewels late in the draft years before they had success? And how does anyone know we aren't in the same boat with our prospects?

My point here isn't to shit on Yzerman. My point is to illustrate how the gold standard of GMs probably would've been run out of this city long before he eventually quit. The demands of this market and its fan base means that most GMs have to manage reactively rather than having a long term outlook.

Stevie Y was a first time GM that was making those mistakes. He then went on to learn from those mistakes and have some of the best draft, trades, resignings and free agent signings in the last 5 years of his tenure

Holland has been a GM for what- 20 years? and is making the same mistakes Yzerman was making in his first. Broberg over a collection of great forwards (some of whom will succeed in the NHL next year)

The Lightening were successful because they largely avoided overpaying for depth players, something Holland does in droves, and the main reason he sunk Detroit. Stevie Y did draft for skill in later rounds, something Holland did not do

To compare a rookie Gm to a 20 year vet is completely misleading. Holland is doing the same stuff here he was doingin Detroit from 2010-2018 and a main reason they had the worst cap situation in the league

 

[Oilhawks]

Just checked out that Athletic list, it’s a big circle jerk of mostly Canadian fans hate voting down other Canadian teams, aside from ridiculous praise for the Jets, placing them in 6th (much wow, they acquired two middle pair d men). Montreal is next up at 17th and all of the other Canadian teams are 20+

Detroit is 3rd “cuz Yzerman”. Wonder if he’s done tanking yet?

 

[Aceboogie]

Just checked out that Athletic list, it’s a big circle jerk of mostly Canadian fans hate voting down other Canadian teams, aside from ridiculous praise for the Jets, placing them in 6th (much wow, they acquired two middle pair d men). Montreal is next up at 17th and all of the other Canadian teams are 20+

Detroit is 3rd “cuz Yzerman”. Wonder if he’s done tanking yet?

And pretty much every year since 2010, Canadian teams have been a staple in the bottom 10 of the league

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

And pretty much every year since 2010, Canadian teams have been a staple in the bottom 10 of the league

All of the Canadian teams are poorly run.

 

[Weitz]

I think the ranking of Holland and co is pretty accurate.

The team likely makes the playoffs because the Pacific sucks, but if Smith falls off a cliff due to age (which is likely at some point soon) they could miss. The defence is arguably worse than last year. The team isn't remotely close to a competitor for the Cup. Which is extremely sad after 6 years with the best player in the league.

 

[tardigrade81]

I agree measuring GM success is tough but...

Unfortunately statements like "better than anything we have had in ten years" shows a ton of fan bias that is mirrored in the list.

Chiarelli who is a bad GM and was terrible for us is technically a better GM than Holland to this point. He at least got us 7 playoff wins all in one run and had a worse roster to work with prior to being hired.

I think many fans love the idea of Holland because of the distant past and either don't know or don't care that he has been brutal for a long time.

Others let their hatred of Chiarelli's cloud their judgement.

But Holland has had zero real success which only comes in the playoffs and he has far far far more to work with that the average team.

I hate Holland's cap management, his asset management is even worse, his drafting suspect at times, and his few trades lopsided against us to say the least.

He has managed to cobble a good forward group but at the expense of D and goaltending. Not exactly a recipe for playoff success.

Ya I guess it just depends what people’s version of success is. I don’t expect a cup but a solid team and make playoffs is what I expect and eventually a cup lol.