LeBrun: Guentzel: Pens want prospects over picks - Carolina favorite

[Cancuks]

Like I said, it's Canucks fans overrating Hoglander, not Penguins fans underrating Hoglander.

He's on pace for 25 goals this season and is only getting better at 23.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Not to say that they're going to do it, but something good has to be on the table to be in the conversation. The price is never going to come down to a 2nd and a nothing prospect, even in the worst case. He's just too good of a player

He is almost 30 and unless a team is very desperate and wants to go all in I think he will stay with the Penguins for the rest of the season. Winger is not a position of need for Carolina if you're keeping Necas. Carolina should create a package for Henrique and Vatrano if they truly want to go all in. They need a scoring center more than anything. I do believe I overrate prospects, but Carolina also does because Dundon has said that he prefers constant success rather than going all in and trying to win a cup.

 

[Gurglesons]

His injury and the fact that teams have next to no cap space is hurting his value. I don't think 6 teams are in on him. 3 or 4 at the most and this will drive value down.

He costs 3 million dollars.

His injury is inconsequential.

 

[SEALBound]

His injury and the fact that teams have next to no cap space is hurting his value. I don't think 6 teams are in on him. 3 or 4 at the most and this will drive value down.

No it's not. At all. Not even one bit.

Penguins can retain $3mil. $3mil is very doable for most teams especially if they take a contract back.

 

[Empoleon8771]

His injury and the fact that teams have next to no cap space is hurting his value. I don't think 6 teams are in on him. 3 or 4 at the most and this will drive value down.

I like how you think you have more insider knowledge than Pierre Lebrun.

 

[SRHRangers]

Rangers have no way of making the cap work, but if Guentzel was the missing piece, I would give up Othmann to get Jake.

50% retention and dealing to a rival would just make the surplus on a deal insane.

 

[Gurglesons]

He is almost 30 and unless a team is very desperate and wants to go all in I think he will stay with the Penguins for the rest of the season. Winger is not a position of need for Carolina if you're keeping Necas. Carolina should create a package for Henrique and Vatrano if they truly want to go all in. They need a scoring center more than anything. I do believe I overrate prospects, but Carolina also does because Dundon has said that he prefers constant success rather than going all in and trying to win a cup.

This isn't happening at this point unless he re-signs.

They will move Guentzel for a package. And it's bizarre you think nobody is going to give it up..

 

[chethejet]

I prefer the Nashville deal as they have a lower first round pick and some younger prospects as well. But I think Vegas is going to go after Smith with Pens retaining a million per. that lands a second round pick. Jake will bring back a nice package and will Ok an extension on the deal to enhance the return. Dubas will have 22 million in cap space to work with this off season. Big RD who adds the physical presence. there are LW's who can be good here.

 

[SomeDude]

Our experience is much more that it would be:

Mikheyev, Lekkerimaki, 2025 1st because he wants his guy and wants the deal to be fair.

Before Dubas can say yes he would have thrown in 2 3rds, a 2nd and Quinn Hughes if it was late stage Pens version of JR.

 

[Cancuks]

Lekkerimaki OR Hoglander + Mikheyev is probably the best offer Canucks will do. That's only if they intend on extending Guentzel.

 

[Zbynek]

In what world is Hoglander, 3rd and 5th a low ball offer for JG?

Hoglander is already one of the best 5 on 5 players in the nhl and he is only 23 yrs old while being cost controlled next year at 1.1 mil.

If the Canucks were rebuilding and put Hoglander on the market right now he would easily get a 1st and 2nd round pick in return.

He's on pace for 35 points this year. Calm down dude.

Your offer sucks balls.

 

[UrbanImpact]

I think it's Canucks fans far overvaluing Hoglander because of an unsustainable shooting% than Penguins fans undervaluing Hoglander.

You just said Hoglander is 1st round value? So which Canuck fans is over-valuing that? thats probably around the same value that theCanuck fanbase look at him as, maybe a bit more but nobody is "Over-valuing" him like crazy.

His shooting percentage might go down but his Powerplay opportunities will go up. 43 of his career 45 goals are litterally on 5 on 5 i believe.

He is also not a shooter. He is a skilled, fiesty winger with hands and his goals will always be around the net. He will be a legit 25+ goal scorer for many years imo. I always see him as a poor mans Marchand.

 

[Empoleon8771]

He's on pace for 25 goals this season and is only getting better at 23.

On pace for 25 goals this year with a 21% shooting%, while only pacing for 36 points.

I'd value him at a 1st, but anything beyond that is just Canucks fans overrating him.

You just said Hoglander is 1st round value? So which Canuck fans is over-valuing that? thats probably around the same value that theCanuck fanbase look at him as, maybe a bit more but nobody is "Over-valuing" him like crazy.

His shooting percentage might go down but his Powerplay opportunities will go up. 43 of his career 45 goals are litterally on 5 on 5 i believe.

He is also not a shooter. He is a skilled, fiesty winger with hands and his goals will always be around the net. He will be a legit 25+ goal scorer for many years imo. I always see him as a poor mans Marchand.

Anyone saying "I wouldn't trade Hoglander for Guentzel straight up" is overvaluing Hoglander. Which has been said numerous times by Canucks fans in here.

Hoglander is worth a 1st. Guentzel is worth a 1st and 2 2nds or 2 1sts and a 2nd.

 

[UrbanImpact]

He's on pace for 35 points this year. Calm down dude.

Your offer sucks balls.

Ah good ole stat watching.

Watch a some Canuck games, He's been the most dangerous Canuck forward on many many nights.

He has played mostly 4th line all season with next to zero powerplay minutes.

Until most recently where he has been elevated to play with Pettersson but still gets no PP time.

Sorry he didnt get enough assists for you, but maybe take that up with his linemates, Nils Aman and Phil Diguissepe. Go ahead ill wait for you to google them.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

He is almost 30 and unless a team is very desperate and wants to go all in I think he will stay with the Penguins for the rest of the season. Winger is not a position of need for Carolina if you're keeping Necas. Carolina should create a package for Henrique and Vatrano if they truly want to go all in. They need a scoring center more than anything. I do believe I overrate prospects, but Carolina also does because Dundon has said that he prefers constant success rather than going all in and trying to win a cup.

Given the choice between say Henrique between Bunting and Necas, and Drury between Guentzel and Necas, I'm taking talent over balance all day. 2 great wingers can elevate a lesser center. Chicago had dynastic success despite instability at 2C behind Toews all of those years. Drury has picked up Kotkaniemi's slack just fine (44 point pace over his last 41 GP).

 

[newsportsfan123]

This isn't happening at this point unless he re-signs.

They will move Guentzel for a package. And it's bizarre you think nobody is going to give it up..

I didn't say I don't think anybody is going to give it up. I said that I believe that if a team is desperate enough they will. Joe Thornton got less and he was a 100 point player that got trade for scraps.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Given the choice between say Henrique between Bunting and Necas, and Drury between Guentzel and Necas, I'm taking talent over balance all day. 2 great wingers can elevate a lesser center. Chicago had dynastic success despite instability at 2C behind Toews all of those years. Drury has picked up Kotkaniemi's slack just fine (44 point pace over his last 41 GP).

That is true about Chicago, but their centers showed up in the playoffs. Patrick Sharp had a really great playoffs in 2013 tbf. Also, if Carolina's centers could show up in the playoffs then it would be a different story.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I don't understand why Hoglander is considered a big piece? He is a small player who has significantly more goals than assists due to an extremely inflated shooting %, which is a huge warning sign imo.

When he comes back down to earth as far as shooting % we are talking about a player who has 20 points in 60 games. I guess it is about how people think he projects in the future. And for that, I am always very weary of players who have significantly more goals than assists. It just shows they are not a good team player and when the goals stop going in they don't contribute much to the team.

I do not see him as the centerpiece in a trade for Guentzel.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't understand why Hoglander is considered a big piece? He is a small player who has significantly more goals than assists due to an extremely inflated shooting %, which is a huge warning sign imo.

When he comes back down to earth as far as shooting % we are talking about a player who has 20 points in 60 games. I guess it is about how people think he projects in the future. And for that, I am always very weary of players who have significantly more goals than assists. It just shows they are not a good team player and when the goals stop going in they don't contribute much to the team.

I do not see him as the centerpiece in a trade for Guentzel.

The only reason he's being discussed is that the Canucks keep being connected to Guentzel and they have nothing else reasonable they can offer for Guentzel outside of Hoglander.

They're obviously not trading Lekkerimaki for a rental Guentzel and they don't have their 2024 1st. It's pretty much Hoglander, a 2025 1st and some B level prospects that they can offer. If they weren't being constantly tied to Guentzel by insiders, I don't think most Penguins fans would even be talking about them as an option due to their unattractive assets.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I think if he was truly that valuable and that good, he's be the 1LW and the Canucks wouldn't even be in on Guentzel but here we are.

Tocchet has actually started playing Hoglander with Pettersson as of late and they’ve been a good fit. I think the Guentzel to Vancouver noise has a lot more to do with who’s in charge in Vancouver and less about who’s likely to actually land him.

Vancouver probably needs more size up front and help on the blueline if they’re moving the assets needed to acquire Guentzel.

 

[Roksta]

Whoever gets Guentzel, congrats. This guy is dynamite in the playoff

 

[God]

No Canucks fan is saying Hoglander is better than Guentzel, that's simply not true.

But given the cap hit (1.1M) for the next two years, he's worth more to the Canucks than Guentzel is, and I suspect the ask for him is a non-starter for the Canucks who have to save every penny with the upcoming OEL dead cap. And I don't think that's an unreasonable thing to state, and it's precisely why a Hoglander for Guentzel deal won't happen. By all means, Guentzel is a great player, and Hoglander will never come close to matching his ability.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Canucks unfortunately don’t have a lot of expendable assets for Guentzel after the Lindholm trade.

Penguin fans won’t like it, but the package will need to be some combination of 2025 1st round pick, Raty, Podkolzin, Woo, Klimovich, and maybe Elias Pettersson (defenceman). I totally understand them rejecting this type of offer.

We can’t give up Lekkerimaki or Willander because our prospect pool is already depleted and we need their ELCs when we lose depth over the next 2 seasons due to players getting raises as UFAs. Hoglander is also performing too well (25-30 goals) with a $1 mill cap hit next season. I would be agreeable to including him in a package, but I think he has alot more value to the Canucks compared to other teams.

 

[UrbanImpact]

On pace for 25 goals this year with a 21% shooting%, while only pacing for 36 points.

I'd value him at a 1st, but anything beyond that is just Canucks fans overrating him.



Anyone saying "I wouldn't trade Hoglander for Guentzel straight up" is overvaluing Hoglander. Which has been said numerous times by Canucks fans in here.

Hoglander is worth a 1st. Guentzel is worth a 1st and 2 2nds or 2 1sts and a 2nd.

First of all those are 2 completely different value that you have for Geuntzel

2x 1st and a 2nd >>>>>>>>> 1st and 2x 2nd

but for some reason you see them as similar.


Thats alot to mortgage for a team. We all know how this story will end. Nobody is going to offer that much, Team leaks there are multiple interested teams but in reality theres maybe 2 or so legit suitors, its going to come down to the deadline and Pens will take the best offer available rather than losing him for nothing at free agency. Its a story told every year.

It will be:

1st, top 5 team prospect, additional pick like a 2nd or 3rd etc..

We've seen this movie before, lets not pretend the ending will be different.

 

[UrbanImpact]

Guentzel is the best UFA on the market, has a proven track record of producing with elite talent and in the playoffs.

Why would a contender not pay up to add him?



Jake Guenztel has more assists than Hoglander has points this year in 11 less games.

because contenders want to be contenders for years not just go all in for 1 season.

They arent going to mortgage their competitive window by selling 2x 1st round pick + for a rental just to go all in for this season.