LeBrun: Guentzel: Pens want prospects over picks - Carolina favorite

[Empoleon8771]

I think very likely he will be with Vegas.

Canucks already said they arent moving their big pieces ( Hoglander, 1st 2025, lekky, Willander) for a rental.

I think the Canucks called up Podkolzin this week to showcase him.

Canucks likely best offer for Geuntzel is:

Podkolzin, 1st 2025, 3rd round pick

with a high chance of an extension for JG.

Then you're not getting Jake Guentzel.

Again, for the millionth time, why do Canucks fans seriously think the Canucks are the only team interested in Guentzel? Every Guentzel thread for the last month has been Canucks fans making bad offers and trying to convince Penguins fans that the offers aren't bad. If the Canucks are going to try to be cheap and not be willing to trade any of their big pieces for Guentzel, they will simply be out-bid by other teams. This isn't "I want an unrealistic return for Guentzel", it's realizing that other teams simply have better assets that they'd be willing to trade.

Carolina gives up two A prospects for a rental but the other teams give up scraps?

I think you're severely overrating Carolina's pieces if you think that is accurate.

I like Nadeau, but he's not even the best prospect of that group there. Samoskevich probably is.

 

[SomeDude]

Pens fans are gonna be sucking their thumbs when they see the "poor" return Guetzel fetches. He's a winger who's been stuck to Crosby. Yes he's good but he's not gonna return what you all are dreaming up.

The cost has been known for weeks. There are 6+ suitors, but Pens fans are the ones who are unrealistic?

 

[Rowlet]

Then you're not getting Jake Guentzel.

Again, for the millionth time, why do Canucks fans seriously think the Canucks are the only team interested in Guentzel? Every Guentzel thread for the last month has been Canucks fans making bad offers and trying to convince Penguins fans that the offers aren't bad. If the Canucks are going to try to be cheap and not be willing to trade any of their big pieces for Guentzel, they will simply be out-bid by other teams. This isn't "I want an unrealistic return for Guentzel", it's realizing that other teams simply have better assets that they'd be willing to trade.



I think you're severely overrating Carolina's pieces if you think that is accurate.

I like Nadeau, but he's not even the best prospect of that group there. Samoskevich probably is.

It's literally not worth to respond to Canuck posters, as a Canuck fan, it's irrelevant because nobody knows what Rutherford and Allvin is going to do.

Hoglander straight up? That could happen, 1st, 2nd, Lekkerimaki, and Willander? That could also happen. It's chaos incarnate and we're just along for the ride.

 

[UrbanImpact]

Yeah, pretty much.

My expectation for a Guentzel return is either 2 1sts and a 2nd or a 1st and 2 2nds in value.

No harm in dreaming big,

Just for reference though, Canucks traded Horvat last year and received a 1st, good prospect (raty) + cap dump

Horvat had 30+ goals at the time of the trade, 3 years younger and plays a more important position than Geuntzel. Both expiring contracts.

Not saying that Horvat is more valuable than JG but just saying your 2x 1st and a 2nd might be a tad over-valuing what trade markets look like.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No harm in dreaming big,

Just for reference though, Canucks traded Horvat last year and received a 1st, good prospect (raty) + cap dump

Horvat had 30+ goals at the time of the trade, 3 years younger and plays a more important position than Geuntzel. Both expiring contracts.

Not saying that Horvat is more valuable than JG but just saying your 2x 1st and a 2nd might be a tad over-valuing what trade markets look like.

That 1st was a projected mid 1st of a team that was out of a playoff spot when they traded the pick. The value of 2 1sts and a 2nd for Guentzel is entirely in line with that because of where the Horvat 1st fell at.

The Islanders were 6th in the metro with a 25-22-6 record when they made that trade. There's a massive difference in value for that 1st versus a 1st of someone like Vegas or Vancouver.

 

[newsportsfan123]

Then you're not getting Jake Guentzel.

Again, for the millionth time, why do Canucks fans seriously think the Canucks are the only team interested in Guentzel? Every Guentzel thread for the last month has been Canucks fans making bad offers and trying to convince Penguins fans that the offers aren't bad. If the Canucks are going to try to be cheap and not be willing to trade any of their big pieces for Guentzel, they will simply be out-bid by other teams. This isn't "I want an unrealistic return for Guentzel", it's realizing that other teams simply have better assets that they'd be willing to trade.



I think you're severely overrating Carolina's pieces if you think that is accurate.

I like Nadeau, but he's not even the best prospect of that group there. Samoskevich probably is.

Samoskevich had 29 points in 40 games as a freshman on one of the most stacked NCAA teams of all-time. Nadeau has 39 points in 32 with his brother also having the same, next player after that has 27. 6 more players had more points than Samoskevich on that Michigan team, so tell me please how he is the better prospect. Nadeau is an A prospect and Koivunen is a B+ prospect. Also, Carolina straight up is not trading two of their top 5 prospects for a winger who is a rental and close to 30. They are in on the deal, but I highly doubt they move the prospects unless they're desperate or really want to go all in.

I was also looking at your comment about the Hall trade involving B+ and B prospects. The prospects in that trade were C level. Merkley was barely a PPG player at the WHL level, Schnarr didn't score at a PPG rate in the OHL until he was 20. Bahl never scored at a PPG rate and is a defensive dman, but he seems to be the best peice in the trade as he is atleast a solid defenseman at the NHL level, but he was never seen as a B prospect.

 

[SomeDude]

It's chaos incarnate and we're just along for the ride.

This is the most apt description of a JR run team I have ever seen. When he’s on, everything he touches turns to gold. When he’s off, look out.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

I like how asking for a 1st and 2 2nds in value is somehow this unrealistic value for a 40 goal scorer.

Canucks fans are insufferable in these threads. Why don't you let other fans talk about what they'd offer for Guentzel instead of flooding every Guentzel thread with lowball offers and page long justifications for those lowball offers?

That's fair value. What some are expecting from the Canucks is worth alot more than what you're saying.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

It's literally not worth to respond to Canuck posters, as a Canuck fan, it's irrelevant because nobody knows what Rutherford and Allvin is going to do.

Hoglander straight up? That could happen, 1st, 2nd, Lekkerimaki, and Willander? That could also happen. It's chaos incarnate and we're just along for the ride.

Hoglander, Willander, Lekk aren't getting traded for a 30 year old rental winger.

Which means Canucks probably aren't getting him and that's fine.

I'd offer a 1st, Raty and a 2nd.

 

[Rowlet]

This is the most apt description of a JR run team I have ever seen. When he’s on, everything he touches turns to gold. When he’s off, look out.

Yep, they've been on fire lately, their pro scouting has been 1000% top tier, they may have overpaid a little for Lindholm compared to Monahan, but the team needed a defensive guy and another faceoff ace, Mikheyev hasn't been great but he got injured again so that's not their fault.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's fair value. What some are expecting from the Canucks is worth alot more than what you're saying.

No it isn't.

Hoglander is worth a 1st, Raty is worth a 2nd and their 2025 1st is a 1st. If they had a 2024 2nd, I'd be fine with doing Hoglander, Raty and a 2024 2nd. But they don't have that.

The only time guys like Lekkerimaki are brought up are in the context of Guentzel coming with a contract extension.

Samoskevich had 29 points in 40 games as a freshman on one of the most stacked NCAA teams of all-time. Nadeau has 39 points in 32 with his brother also having the same, next player after that has 27. 6 more players had more points than Samoskevich on that Michigan team, so tell me please how he is the better prospect. Nadeau is an A prospect and Koivunen is a B+ prospect. Also, Carolina straight up is not trading two of their top 5 prospects for a winger who is a rental and close to 30. They are in on the deal, but I highly doubt they move the prospects unless they're desperate or really want to go all in.

Why does that matter to where he is as a prospect right now? Samoskevich has 36 points in 44 AHL games as a rookie and looks to be NHL ready.

Nadeau in his freshman year looks like a better prospect than Samoskevich in his freshman year, but Samoskevich isn't in his freshman year.

I think you're overrating both of those prospects. Nadeau is a B+ prospect and Koivunen is a B prospect.

 

[Rowlet]

Hoglander, Willander, Lekk aren't getting traded for a 30 year old rental winger.

Which means Canucks probably aren't getting him and that's fine.

If offer a 1st, Raty and a 2nd.

Yes, I know that they shouldn't, but Rutherford is known to go for it, so it doesn't mean they won't.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

ah only a few more days over fans overvaluing rentals. Top rentals pull a 1st and a B prospect unless some GM has some panic moment in the cap world. Since Pitts wants prospects, you are looking at 2 Bs prospects that are league ready. that likely says Vegas is there with with Cormier and Brisson. Canes arent moving Morrow for a rental. Nadeau and such are likely 2 seasons out

 

[drede]

Guentzel for Necas with the assumption Jake would like to resign there. Adding Guentzel to the top 6 would make them quite formidable in the East.


Which only works if it's only two teams talking. With 6, someone will pay the price to get the guy.

Would be huge for canes there lacking scoring so would be perfect for them

 

[Baby Pettersson]

No it isn't.

Hoglander is worth a 1st, Raty is worth a 2nd and their 2025 1st is a 1st. If they had a 2024 2nd, I'd be fine with doing Hoglander, Raty and a 2024 2nd. But they don't have that.

The only time guys like Lekkerimaki are brought up are in the context of Guentzel coming with a contract extension.



Why does that matter to where he is as a prospect right now? Samoskevich has 36 points in 44 AHL games as a rookie and looks to be NHL ready.

Nadeau in his freshman year looks like a better prospect than Samoskevich in his freshman year, but Samoskevich isn't in his freshman year.

The problem here is Hoglander is worth more than a 1st. At least to the Canucks.

Again I don't think Canucks are going to get him because you're under valuing out pieces.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Samoskevich had 29 points in 40 games as a freshman on one of the most stacked NCAA teams of all-time. Nadeau has 39 points in 32 with his brother also having the same, next player after that has 27. 6 more players had more points than Samoskevich on that Michigan team, so tell me please how he is the better prospect. Nadeau is an A prospect and Koivunen is a B+ prospect. Also, Carolina straight up is not trading two of their top 5 prospects for a winger who is a rental and close to 30. They are in on the deal, but I highly doubt they move the prospects unless they're desperate or really want to go all in.

Not to say that they're going to do it, but something good has to be on the table to be in the conversation. The price is never going to come down to a 2nd and a nothing prospect, even in the worst case. He's just too good of a player

 

[Empoleon8771]

The problem here is Hoglander is worth more than a 1st. At least to the Canucks.

Again I don't think Canucks are going to get him because you're under valuing out pieces.

I think it's Canucks fans far overvaluing Hoglander because of an unsustainable shooting% than Penguins fans undervaluing Hoglander.

ah only a few more days over fans overvaluing rentals. Rentals pull a 1st and a B prospect. Since Pitts wants prospects, you are looking at 2 Bs prospects that are league ready. that likely says Vegas is there with with Cormier and Brisson. Canes arent moving Morrow for a rental. Nadeau and such are likely 2 seasons out

Why would Guentzel pull the same price as worse rentals? There have been no rental wingers as good as Guentzel traded since Taylor Hall.

A 1st and a B prospect gets you a 2nd line rental RW, not a 40 goal scorer.

 

[Cancuks]

The report was that they wanted 2 prospects over 2 picks, but I think picks would also be included.

Bringing my post from the other Guentzel thread, these are my expectations for a rental Guentzel trade with some of the rumored teams:

-Vegas: Brisson, Korczak and a 2024 2nd
-Carolina: Nadeau, Koivunen and a 2024 2nd
-Vancouver: Hoglander, Raty and a 2025 1st
-Florida: Samoskevich, Sawchyn and a 2025 2nd

I would not trade Hoglander for Guentzel unless he's going with Mikheyev. Adding a 1st and Raty is ridiculous.

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

Should have never been in on Karlsson. There should be a pretty decent haul for guentzel. Probably best for them to get some good prospects for him.

Karlsson trade was cap-neutral for the Pens, which allowed them to trade Petry, Desmith, Jan Ruuta and Mikeal Granlund.

Trade is still a win for the Pens. The team just kinda sucks

 

[Baby Pettersson]

I think it's Canucks fans far overvaluing Hoglander because of an unsustainable shooting% than Penguins fans undervaluing Hoglander.



Why would Guentzel pull the same price as worse rentals? There have been no rental wingers as good as Guentzel traded since Taylor Hall.

A 1st and a B prospect gets you a 2nd line rental RW, not a 40 goal scorer.

I wouldn't trade Hog for Guentzel one for one.

So I think discussions are over.

Just be thankful us Canucks are helping pump up the price on the market for you.

You're welcome!

 

[SEALBound]

The problem here is Hoglander is worth more than a 1st. At least to the Canucks.

Again I don't think Canucks are going to get him because you're under valuing out pieces.

I think if he was truly that valuable and that good, he's be the 1LW and the Canucks wouldn't even be in on Guentzel but here we are.

Hoglander is the guy you trade for Guentzel because you have Lekkerimaki coming up. Course I'd rather the Canucks just give us Lekkerimaki and whatever they want in cap dumps.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I wouldn't trade Hog for Guentzel one for one.

So I think discussions are over.

Just be thankful us Canucks are helping pump up the price on the market for you.

You're welcome!

Like I said, it's Canucks fans overrating Hoglander, not Penguins fans underrating Hoglander.

 

[Donuts]

Mik raty and 2nd for guentzel

JR to dubas: "best we could do. You gonna take it and you're gonna like it"

 

[Cancuks]

I think it's Canucks fans far overvaluing Hoglander because of an unsustainable shooting% than Penguins fans undervaluing Hoglander.



Why would Guentzel pull the same price as worse rentals? There have been no rental wingers as good as Guentzel traded since Taylor Hall.

A 1st and a B prospect gets you a 2nd line rental RW, not a 40 goal scorer.

His injury and the fact that teams have next to no cap space is hurting his value. I don't think 6 teams are in on him. 3 or 4 at the most and this will drive value down.

 

[SEALBound]

Mik raty and 2nd for guentzel

JR to dubas: "best we could do. You gonna take it and you're gonna like it"

Our experience is much more that it would be:

Mikheyev, Lekkerimaki, 2025 1st because he wants his guy and wants the deal to be fair.